Melancon will be in his final arbitration year this winter

[bjf1984]

Any chance his is slipping Bastardo a few bucks to help him increase his save numbers and drive up his 2016 salary?

Btw......mea culpa:

I Figured Happ had very little chance of making any meaningful contribtution to the rotation
His last two outings were legit. I don't know if he can keep it going or not - I would guess not, but will hope to be surprised. But, even if he doesn't throw another like these last two, he has filled in admirably to get the club to September, when the extra arms will give hurdle the opportunity to adjust for some short outings from the starters

Way to go Happ!

 

[fairgambit]

Any chance his is slipping Bastardo a few bucks to help him increase his save numbers and drive up his 2016 salary?

The GLOV has agreed to kick in a month of his beer tab to help keep Melancon. That should be enough to sign him long term.

 

[nits74]

Any chance his is slipping Bastardo a few bucks to help him increase his save numbers and drive up his 2016 salary?

Btw......mea culpa:

I Figured Happ had very little chance of making any meaningful contribtution to the rotation
His last two outings were legit. I don't know if he can keep it going or not - I would guess not, but will hope to be surprised. But, even if he doesn't throw another like these last two, he has filled in admirably to get the club to September, when the extra arms will give hurdle the opportunity to adjust for some short outings from the starters

Way to go Happ!

Remember, a closer's effectiveness can turn on a dime. Like always, the Pirates will have to be sensible with what they do with him. I'll trust their judgement. They've earned it.

 

[lionlurker]

The Pirates have a guy in AA who is looking like a major league closer. Meanwhile, they seem to be able to find these bullpen guys at very reasonable prices. I'm sure Neal has a plan.

 

[bjf1984]

The Pirates have a guy in AA who is looking like a major league closer. Meanwhile, they seem to be able to find these bullpen guys at very reasonable prices. I'm sure Neal has a plan.

There entire starting 8 next year will cost them about $41 Million:

OF - Marte (3 million) McCutchen (13) Polanco (1/2)
3B - Kang (2 1/2)
SS - Mercer (~3)
2B - Harrison (5)
1B - Walker (~10) or Alvarez (~8)
C - Cervelli (~5)

Starting rotation, probably about $29 Million:

Cole (1/2) Liriano (14) Morton (8) Locke (~2 1/2) Worley (~4)

Arbitration estimates
__________________________

Assuming they spend about $5-6 million for bench/utility players, that should leave $25-30 for the bullpen.

If so, and assuming they keep Melancon (9), Watson (4 1/2), Hughes (2 1/2), Caminero (1/2)....they would still have plenty of room for 3 low cost "filler" arms for the pen.....bringing the total costs for the pen to about $20 million

That would set a total payroll around $95-100 Million....under their budget. Now, if they did decide to move Melancon (and they have a history of NOT wanting to pay top dollar for relievers - even closers) that would give them a ton of payroll flexibility - but they don't NEED to move Melancon to be more than OK on payroll.

Since there will be a full rotation of starting pitching depth at AAA (barring another injury epidemic) and all of it will be "league-minimum" and should all be Major League ready....Taillon, Glasnow, Kingham, Sadler, Cumpton, etc.....no pressing need to acquire any expensive starting pitching in the off-season.

for 2017, some large contracts will be coming OFF the payroll (Walker/Alvarez, Morton) with likely replacements ready from within the system - at league minimum - there are no long term payroll issues.

 

[The Spin Meister]

Hard to believe Cole and Polanco are each getting only 1/2 m. If the front office is smart, and it is permitted, they should give Cole a bonus of 2 mil and Polanco of 1 mil. That will help build a ton of good will when new contracts for these two are being negotiated.

 

[Obliviax]

Hard to believe Cole and Polanco are each getting only 1/2 m. If the front office is smart, and it is permitted, they should give Cole a bonus of 2 mil and Polanco of 1 mil. That will help build a ton of good will when new contracts for these two are being negotiated.

Typically they can negotiate a contract extension. Tribe has done that, with Cory Kluber specifically. They get a long term deal at a good price but the player gets $50m or so, under market value, but is protected if there is a injury that ends their careers. I am sure it is being discussed.

This is the problem with being a small market team. Its one thing to build it...its another to sustain it. P will have to be happy with a $130m+ payroll soon. Can they handle it?

 

[mOOse_44]

There entire starting 8 next year will cost them about $41 Million:

OF - Marte (3 million) McCutchen (13) Polanco (1/2)
3B - Kang (2 1/2)
SS - Mercer (~3)
2B - Harrison (5)
1B - Walker (~10) or Alvarez (~8)
C - Cervelli (~5)

Starting rotation, probably about $29 Million:

Cole (1/2) Liriano (14) Morton (8) Locke (~2 1/2) Worley (~4)

Arbitration estimates
__________________________

Assuming they spend about $5-6 million for bench/utility players, that should leave $25-30 for the bullpen.

If so, and assuming they keep Melancon (9), Watson (4 1/2), Hughes (2 1/2), Caminero (1/2)....they would still have plenty of room for 3 low cost "filler" arms for the pen.....bringing the total costs for the pen to about $20 million

That would set a total payroll around $95-100 Million....under their budget. Now, if they did decide to move Melancon (and they have a history of NOT wanting to pay top dollar for relievers - even closers) that would give them a ton of payroll flexibility - but they don't NEED to move Melancon to be more than OK on payroll.

Since there will be a full rotation of starting pitching depth at AAA (barring another injury epidemic) and all of it will be "league-minimum" and should all be Major League ready....Taillon, Glasnow, Kingham, Sadler, Cumpton, etc.....no pressing need to acquire any expensive starting pitching in the off-season.

for 2017, some large contracts will be coming OFF the payroll (Walker/Alvarez, Morton) with likely replacements ready from within the system - at league minimum - there are no long term payroll issues.

Don't pay for saves Barry. They are highly replaceable. Remember Hanrahan and Grilli??

 

[bjf1984]

Don't pay for saves Barry. They are highly replaceable. Remember Hanrahan and Grilli??

I don't disagree......I tend to think low-balling the bullpen is a good idea (and, as you point out, the Pittsburgh front office tends to go that way)

I was just pointing out that, for the 2016 pre-season at least, offering arbitration to both Melancon AND Watson (and Hughes) would likely fall completely within budget.

IF that is the case, it may make perfect sense to do that - even of the plan might be to then ship a "cost-controlled" legit All Star closer for a nice prospect or two (you know there will be a couple of contenders with big budgets that would LOVE to acquire a Melancon at $8 million).....or even keep Melancon for the 2016 season and (likely) pick up a sandwich round draft pick when he leaves.

They could do the same with both Walker and Pedro.....though, in that case, I think you would have to have a plan of moving at least one of them in the off-season....but, again, there would certainly be an AL team out there somewhere that would take Pedro (at $8 million or so) and add in a decent prospect in the deal.
So, better to "sign and trade" (even for a "B" prospect), rather than simply non-tendering either of them.

As always with a team with a "budget", its all about smart money.

 

[bjf1984]

Hard to believe Cole and Polanco are each getting only 1/2 m. If the front office is smart, and it is permitted, they should give Cole a bonus of 2 mil and Polanco of 1 mil. That will help build a ton of good will when new contracts for these two are being negotiated.

That's the nature of the beast.....unless they sign a long-term deal, 99.99% of pre-arbitration guys are going to get league-minimum deals.

Now....if Cole (or Polanco) were amenable to considering long-term deals (even if just to even out the cost commitment of their league minimum and arbitration years)...ABSOLUTELY consider that. That's how you gain "goodwill" (insuring the guy a nice payday, while also yielding some certainty of payroll to the club.....a win-win if done "smartly"). They've done that with Cutch and Marte (YEAH!) and Tabata (Boo!) and Harrison (TBD)

As for "throwing a million or two at a guy to build goodwill".....really?

FWIW, Cole's agent is Boras... I would certainly think a long-term deal would be nice, but the strong likelihood is that Cole is a Bucco for two more years at league-minimum, and then three arbitration years at salaries based on performance......if, for some reason, they "gave him" an extra million or two it COULDN'T change those salaries by a penny.
In 2020, Cole - barring injury - is going to be a 29 year old Ace looking for a 6 Year $200+ Million contract......and - call me cynical - but I don't see Boras ever coming to the table and saying "Thanks for the Mill back in 2015.....we're gonna' go ahead and give you that hometown discount on a long term deal".

As for Polanco, there were rumors that the Buccos and Polanco had opening discussions on a long-term deal last off-season. If they could put together a "Marte-type" deal I would think both sides would benefit.

 

[bjf1984]

The Pirates have a guy in AA who is looking like a major league closer. Meanwhile, they seem to be able to find these bullpen guys at very reasonable prices. I'm sure Neal has a plan.

"The Pirates have a guy in AA who is looking like a major league closer."

Altoona? There is NOTHING at Altoona that looks like a good AA closer, let alone a Major League prospect.
Now, down in the A ball levels there are several intriguing guys (though most Major League "closers" aren't guys who come through the system as "closers")....not to mention a couple "out of left-field" possibilities on the current roster.


"Meanwhile, they seem to be able to find these bullpen guys at very reasonable prices."

Agree. Most closers seem to come out of left field - so to speak. The Buccos have a nice track record over the last 5-6 years of identifying these guys.
Continuing to do so moving forward.....putting together one of the leagues better bullpens without any big-time long-term money commitment, is a real key to their success.
Its also an area were contenders can usually pick up some cheap rentals for the stretch run (ala Soria and Blanton this year)
No guarantees, but I agree, they've earned the benefit of the doubt wrt building pens.

 

[EPC FAN]

Any chance his is slipping Bastardo a few bucks to help him increase his save numbers and drive up his 2016 salary?

Btw......mea culpa:

I Figured Happ had very little chance of making any meaningful contribtution to the rotation
His last two outings were legit. I don't know if he can keep it going or not - I would guess not, but will hope to be surprised. But, even if he doesn't throw another like these last two, he has filled in admirably to get the club to September, when the extra arms will give hurdle the opportunity to adjust for some short outings from the starters

Way to go Happ!

Now the fun begins for the Pirates. That payroll will explode or they will have to sell off/trade away talent. You guys better start buying tickets. There are far to many empty seats for a team that good.

 

[nits74]

Now the fun begins for the Pirates. That payroll will explode or they will have to sell off/trade away talent. You guys better start buying tickets. There are far to many empty seats for a team that good.

You're looking at this from a Philly perspective. For it's population base and geographical location (surrounded by other major league markets), the Pirates are doing quite well of late. They'll exceed 2.5M in attendance this year.

 

[The Spin Meister]

Closers are the most over-rated players in all of sports. They come in with nobody on, pitch one inning, and are hailed as heroes. They only pitch when it is a 'save' situation, making it pretty easy to stack their record. Pitching just one inning allows them to pitch often, stacking their record more. Thats why the Bucs are consistent in having a good closer.....any solid relief pitcher can do it.

 

[bjf1984]

...

Now the fun begins for the Pirates. That payroll will explode or they will have to sell off/trade away talent. You guys better start buying tickets. There are far to many empty seats for a team that good.

Never a guarantee that success can be maintained long-term.....especially for a team with limited $$$.

That said, your contention that "That payroll will explode or they will have to sell off/trade away talent" couldn't be more off-base.

The Buccos have great long-term cost control for:

Marte, Cutch, and Polanco in the OF
Kang, Harrison, and Mercer (3B, SS, 2B)
At IB and C, near-term prospects ready to take over roles at low-costs, as soon as 2016 (Bell, Diaz....and also middle IF Hansen, who will give them a lot of roster versatility)

A slew of legit starting pitching prospects in the upper levels.....and the only two higher-cost Major League guys are at reasonable prices through 2017 - and Morton's 2017 deal is a team option - if they choose to exercise it...which they may not have to

A real nice group of lower level minor league position prospects.

For a budget limited club.....I can't imagine a better scenario.


There are no Howard/Utley/ARod/Papelbon/Fielder/Halladay/Pujols/Shields/Sabathia type contracts on the roster - contracts that could KILL a limited money club.......and no reason to get into any of those deals in the near future.

 

[bjf1984]

Closers are the most over-rated players in all of sports. They come in with nobody on, pitch one inning, and are hailed as heroes. They only pitch when it is a 'save' situation, making it pretty easy to stack their record. Pitching just one inning allows them to pitch often, stacking their record more. Thats why the Bucs are consistent in having a good closer.....any solid relief pitcher can do it.

".....any solid relief pitcher can do it"


Said the Los Angeles Dodger fan.......NOT!!

(Though I agree that paying a ton for a "closer" rarely makes sense, and certainly not long-term - unless it is a club with nearly unlimited budget. Just too volatile, and not the value you can get from a position player or starting pitcher)