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Mat Scouts has Penn State at 170 Points

APSPSUwrestlingfan

APSPSUwrestlingfan

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Apr 3, 2021
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His analysis is summarized along with the other D1 top 20s. With a projected 9 AAs there is still room for improvement. We live in the greatest time ever to be PSU wrestling fans. His 57 minute TFW Crystal Ball goes into very convincing detail. I'm just grateful that Noodle Arms convinced my wife that wrestling is fascinating. From there she "adopted" our 133lb flying squirrel and now can't wait for our first 2 4timers. Wonderful Holidays and a great New Year to all on this Board. WE ARE.... BLESSED!
 
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APSPSUwrestlingfan said:
His analysis is summarized along with the other D1 top 20s. With a projected 9 AAs there is still room for improvement. We live in the greatest time ever to be PSU wrestling fans. His 57 minute TFW Crystal Ball goes into very convincing detail. I'm just grateful that Noodle Arms convinced my wife that wrestling is fascinating. From there she "adopted" our 133lb flying squirrel and now can't wait for our first 2 4timers. Wonderful Holidays and a great New Year to all on this Board. WE ARE.... BLESSED!
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But, but, but, if they score 170 points, it will because there is a 3-point takedown :rolleyes:
 
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It will take some healthy luck. As in everyone stays mostly healthy. It will take some luck in the backside bracket breaks. Hate it when a 3 or 4 ends up on the backside early and disrupts the flow. Often knocking out some good AA caliber guys before the blood round. It will take guys staying focused on the goal and peaking at the right time. A whole lot will have to go right reach 170 and not much wrong to fall short.

My guess is the focus will be on getting better every day and working to be the best version of each individual wrestler. The points will fall where they will.
 
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Lots of wrestling between now and NCAA's, health is most important, definitely opportunity to eclipse 170, some interesting matchups for Sunday versus Lehigh
 
johnstownsteel said:
Wasnt there something in team scoring back when Iowa broke record that made it easier than todays scoring system?
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Was it the lackadaisical rules on amount of scholarships??

Seriously though,I asked the very same question a couple weeks ago and got my answer. I cant REMEMBER the answer but it’s somewhere on this board….
 
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STAND with PRIDE said:
Was it the lackadaisical rules on amount of scholarships??

Seriously though,I asked the very same question a couple weeks ago and got my answer. I cant REMEMBER the answer but it’s somewhere on this board….
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No, Iowa had already lost scholarships (because they cheated) before the scoring record was broken.
 
He projects
9 AAs, 3 champs, 7 finalists
AB, CStar, Levi champ
SVN, Bartlett, Bernie, Kerkvliet finalist
Nagao 3
Mesenbrink 4
Braeden R12

Those placements smash 170 since he admits bonus is "limited" in his model
 
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McScoreley said:
He projects
9 AAs, 3 champs, 7 finalists
AB, CStar, Levi champ
SVN, Bartlett, Bernie, Kerkvliet finalist
Nagao 3
Mesenbrink 4
Braeden R12

Those placements smash 170 since he admits bonus is "limited" in his model
Click to expand...
Those placements would result in 152 Placement and Advancement points if my math is correct. So only 18 Bonus points for the team would be needed to get to 170.

Seeing Mesenbrink at 4 made me wonder if any PSU wrestlers under Cael have ever finished 4th, and also made me think about how rare it is for a PSU wrestler to lose a 3rd, 5th, or 7th place match. I went back through the brackets since 2010 and here's what I found:

4th Place - Greg Kerkvliet in 2022
6th Place - Cyler Sanderson in 2010, Jimmy Lawson in 2015, Jordan Conaway in 2016
8th Place - Jordan Conaway in 2015, Roman Bravo-Young in 2019

That's it, just 6 losses. Did I miss anyone? I didn't count all of the wins but I can think of a lot more than 6 off the top of my head.

Mesenbrink at 4 doesn't sound too far off, but I gotta think if he's wrestling Saturday morning in the 3rd place match he's getting it - for himself and for his team.
 
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cms432 said:
Those placements would result in 152 Placement and Advancement points if my math is correct. So only 18 Bonus points for the team would be needed to get to 170.

Seeing Mesenbrink at 4 made me wonder if any PSU wrestlers under Cael have ever finished 4th, and also made me think about how rare it is for a PSU wrestler to lose a 3rd, 5th, or 7th place match. I went back through the brackets since 2010 and here's what I found:

4th Place - Greg Kerkvliet in 2022
6th Place - Cyler Sanderson in 2010, Jimmy Lawson in 2015, Jordan Conaway in 2016
8th Place - Jordan Conaway in 2015, Roman Bravo-Young in 2019

That's it, just 6 losses. Did I miss anyone? I didn't count all of the wins but I can think of a lot more than 6 off the top of my head.

Mesenbrink at 4 doesn't sound too far off, but I gotta think if he's wrestling Saturday morning in the 3rd place match he's getting it - for himself and for his team.
Click to expand...
All correct but Kerk didn't wrestle that 4th place match because he was severely banged up by the end and it wasn't necessary anymore.

I get Cam Amine usually dictates pace but I feel pretty good about Mitch beating him ...
 
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cms432 said:
Those placements would result in 152 Placement and Advancement points if my math is correct. So only 18 Bonus points for the team would be needed to get to 170.

Seeing Mesenbrink at 4 made me wonder if any PSU wrestlers under Cael have ever finished 4th, and also made me think about how rare it is for a PSU wrestler to lose a 3rd, 5th, or 7th place match. I went back through the brackets since 2010 and here's what I found:

4th Place - Greg Kerkvliet in 2022
6th Place - Cyler Sanderson in 2010, Jimmy Lawson in 2015, Jordan Conaway in 2016
8th Place - Jordan Conaway in 2015, Roman Bravo-Young in 2019

That's it, just 6 losses. Did I miss anyone? I didn't count all of the wins but I can think of a lot more than 6 off the top of my head.

Mesenbrink at 4 doesn't sound too far off, but I gotta think if he's wrestling Saturday morning in the 3rd place match he's getting it - for himself and for his team.
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Nick Lee?
 
170 points, you say?

48d.png
 
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I took another look at the brackets. Since 2010 a PSU wrestler has finished 3rd, 5th, or 7th place a total of 21 times. Interestingly, there were exactly 7 instances each of a 3rd place, 5th place, and a 7th place finish.

That's a record of 21-6 in the Saturday morning placement matches. I think that is incredible and often overshadowed by all of the finalists and national champs.
 
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cms432 said:
I took another look at the brackets. Since 2010 a PSU wrestler has finished 3rd, 5th, or 7th place a total of 21 times. Interestingly, there were exactly 7 instances each of a 3rd place, 5th place, and a 7th place finish.

That's a record of 21-6 in the Saturday morning placement matches. I think that is incredible and often overshadowed by all of the finalists and national champs.
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Yes, Penn State wrestlers usually end with a win.

Cali_Nittany said:
I forget which thread and who posted it but there was a video link discussing Penn State's excellent winning % in finals matches compared to other schools. This gave me the idea to dig a little deeper. The base data from 2012 through 2023 comes from the Penn State Wrestling Club website. 2010 and 2011 came from other sources. In the spreadsheet below, you'll find the following:

>NCAA tournament team scores during the Cael Era. You'll see a few different tiers with obviously Penn State at the top by themselves and Iowa, a clear 2nd. For cells that are blank, that means either the school didn't have any NCAA qualifiers or the school didn't have a D1 team.

>The All-American totals during the Cael Era. Note how close behind Iowa is to Penn State in the total number of AAs. I added a column for % of AAs that finished 1st or 2nd. Penn State's % of high placing AAs is impressive.

>The win-lose and % columns is for final AA matches. I wanted to see who was finishing the tournament on a win (1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th). We already know about Penn State's impressive championship match %, their 3rd, 5th and 7th place win %s are just as impressive.

>The last columns, I was just playing around with the stats a little bit. You'll see the placement points and advancement points for the AA wrestlers. Note, the advancement points aren't perfect. A wrestler who loses his first match and then finishes as an AA loses .5 advancement points.

(Here's a link to view the below better: link )


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APSPSUwrestlingfan said:
His analysis is summarized along with the other D1 top 20s. With a projected 9 AAs there is still room for improvement. We live in the greatest time ever to be PSU wrestling fans. His 57 minute TFW Crystal Ball goes into very convincing detail. I'm just grateful that Noodle Arms convinced my wife that wrestling is fascinating. From there she "adopted" our 133lb flying squirrel and now can't wait for our first 2 4timers. Wonderful Holidays and a great New Year to all on this Board. WE ARE.... BLESSED!
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I heard we were coming back to earth after Taylor & Ruth were done?
 
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146.5 in 2017 is Penn State's high water mark, unless I erred. I'm pretty confident this year's team will exceed that, barring injuries (plural). I'm fairly confident 170 will be exceeded (pretty>fairly).
 
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