There is still some uncertainty unfortunately. 10th locks team in. 11th almost guarantees it. 12th gets a bit more iffy depending on other conference tournaments. Sweeping Minnesota next week should get team to 11th. Taking all 3 games to get by Minnesota likely only gets team to 12th. Wisconsin taking out Michigan would be wonderful.
I think we'd be pretty safe at #12. You'd need five teams from #13 and below to be conference champs for #12 to miss:
(1) Atlantic Hockey - that's going to be a #13 or below team, for sure.
(2) Hockey East - pretty good chance to be a #13 or below team. Either BC or BU would fit that bill this year.
(3) ECAC - If anyone but Cornell or Clarkson wins, that's going to be a #13 or below team.
(4) WCHA - If anyone but Minnesota State wins, that's going to be a #13 or below team.
That's four. The fifth would need to be a lower-tier NCHC or B1G team. Possible, but we're talking the likes of Wisconsin, MSU, Omaha or Miami University at that point.
Pairwise is pretty darn hard to predict --- but we win the comparison with Minnesota (that we are currently losing) with a series win (be it 2 or 3 games) - that should get us to at least #12. .
You're right that a Wisconsin win over Michigan helps us a lot. Of course, presuming Wisky doesn't go on to win the B1G automatic bid.