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Lies, damn lies, and data (statistics)!!

RoarLions1

Well-Known Member
May 11, 2012
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Took a 7 year (2010-2016) look at the HOME STATE of NCAA Qualifiers and NCAA All-Americans. My data goes back to 2008, but it’s incomplete, so 2010 is the furthest back I can go. This isn’t done to prove or disprove anything, just presenting some facts. While state populations and the number of wrestlers change each year, I used 2014 numbers as the basis.

Only 3 states not represented at all, Arkansas, Maine and Mississippi.

NCAA Qualifiers that earn All-American (Top-10, plus others)
SC – 67% (only 3 qualifiers, 2 All-Americans…in 7 years)
ID – 56% (16 qualifiers, 9 AA’s)
VT – 50% (6 qualifiers, 3 AA’s)
ND – 43% (7 qualifiers, 3 AA’s)
MN – 43% (61 qualifiers, 26 AA’s)
IA – 38% (94 qualifiers, 36 AA’s)
SD – 37% (19 qualifiers, 7 AA’s)
DE – 36% (14 qualifiers, 5 AA’s)
UT – 35% (34 qualifiers, 12 AA’s)
WY – 33% (6 qualifiers, 2 AA’s)
Others (large wrestling states);
CA – 27% (132 Q’s, 35 AA’s) – 14th
OH – 26% (216 Q’s, 57 AA’s) – 15th
MI – 24% (109 Q’s, 26 AA’s) – 19th
IL – 23% (136 Q’s, 32 AA’s) – 21st
PA – 23% (379 Q’s, 87 AA’s) – 23rd
NJ – 20% (178 Q’s, 36 AA’s) – 24th
NY – 18% (142 Q’s, 26 AA’s) – 31st

NCAA Qualifiers per Million Population
(Normalizes data, by taking into account the population size of each state)
IA – 4.39
PA – 4.25
SD – 3.29
NJ – 2.88
OH – 2.67
DE – 2.20
MT – 2.00
CO – 1.87
UT – 1.72
MN – 1.63

NCAA All-Americans per Million Population
(Normalizes data, by taking into account the population size of each state)
IA – 1.68
SD – 1.21
PA - .98
ID - .81
DE - .79
OH - .71
MN - .69
VT - .68
ND - .63
UT - .61

NCAA Qualifiers per Thousand High School Wrestlers
(Normalizes data, by taking into account the # of High School Wrestlers in each state)
PA – 5.56
VT – 5.04
OH – 2.66
NJ – 2.57
SD – 2.07
IA – 2.00
CO – 1.79
DE – 1.76
OK – 1.69
MI – 1.50

NCAA All-Americans per Thousand High School Wrestlers
(Normalizes data, by taking into account the # of High School Wrestlers in each state)
VT – 2.52
PA – 1.28
IA - .77
SD - .76
OH - .70
DE - .63
CO - .53
NJ - .52
ID - .52
UT - .51

# of Qualifiers, by State (those with more than 90 for the 7 years)
PA – 379
OH – 216
NJ – 178
NY – 142
IL – 136
CA – 132
MI – 109
IA – 94

Note: Lots of data where smaller states show up near the top. Most definitely the result of one or 2 wrestlers from that state having a huge impact, given lower state populations and fewer high school wrestlers. Good for them, but I’d discount some of the data as representing any long-term trend for those states. A perfect example is the very first piece of data, South Carolina with 67% (2 of 3 over 7 years) of their Qualifiers earning All-American. This was all Tim Dudley.
 
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TI’d discount some of the data as representing any long-term trend for those states. A perfect example is the very first piece of data, South Carolina with 67% (2 of 3 over 7 years) of their Qualifiers earning All-American. This was all Tim Dudley.
Hogwash. Here in SC, we prefer quality over quantity. Nevermind that it was only one guy. lol.
 
Okay, great stats Roar. They covered all the bases. I much prefer to use 'per thousand wrestlers' as the denominator rather than 'per million population', as I think it removes the large inner cities where population is great and wrestlers are few. I think it skews the numbers. Just my personal opinion. Would be interesting to get about 20 years of data and see how it shakes out.
 
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Haha...guessing I'll hear from my other SC buddy too!!

Thanks, Roar. Go SC! Since I live in South Carolina and grew up in State College, SC applies to me! Yes, I'm proud of of South Carolina's AA (even if I pull for Cutch against him!). He went to HS 20 minutes from where I live. South Carolina is slowly getting better in wrestling, Georgia even more so!
 
Larry Fall called and he wants to know how the hell you did that without using the four year rolling average?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
 
Poor Arkansas, Maine, and Mississippi (never mind that the first one only started trying in 2009, and the last one literally isn't trying...)
 
Poor Arkansas, Maine, and Mississippi (never mind that the first one only started trying in 2009, and the last one literally isn't trying...)
^^^ THIS!! Mississippi is listed in the NFHS Handbook as having only 2 High Schools, and 25 wrestlers...
 
Cenosillicaphobia.....LOL!!!!....just looked it up! Sorry you have this phobia!!!:( Just use good judgement when you attempt to deal with it!!!;)
 
Thanks, Roar. Go SC! Since I live in South Carolina and grew up in State College, SC applies to me! Yes, I'm proud of of South Carolina's AA (even if I pull for Cutch against him!). He went to HS 20 minutes from where I live. South Carolina is slowly getting better in wrestling, Georgia even more so!
My grandson lives in Charleston, SC but he plays baseball and they sure have good baseball there. Went to a week long tourney there and teams for all over the U.S.A I believe a team from Georgia won it though.
 
I really wish my old city of Tucson, and the U of A, would bring back wrestling. Still some great wrestling schools in Tucson like Sunnyside...Bill Nelson was a great coach back in the day.
 
My grandson lives in Charleston, SC but he plays baseball and they sure have good baseball there. Went to a week long tourney there and teams for all over the U.S.A I believe a team from Georgia won it though.

Another sport, but yes, S Carolina is very good in baseball. They won the NCAA's a couple of years in a row and multiple times over a period of years. SC is the home of the famous Bobby Richardson, who once coached USC (the South Carolina USC!). Sorry for the digression to another sport, but Bobby Richardson is the answer to a baseball trivia question. He's the only guy to win the World Series MVP on be on the losing team!
 
I really wish my old city of Tucson, and the U of A, would bring back wrestling. Still some great wrestling schools in Tucson like Sunnyside...Bill Nelson was a great coach back in the day.

21...where did you live? Ironwood Ridge has taken over for Sunnyside. I went to Flowing Wells back in the day when we and Sunnyside were the teams to beat.
 
21...where did you live? Ironwood Ridge has taken over for Sunnyside. I went to Flowing Wells back in the day when we and Sunnyside were the teams to beat.

I lived in literally nearly every area of the city: On the east side on Kolb/22nd area, midtown behind the old Bookmans on Grant and Campbell, for a couple years off River road and 1st, on Orange grove for a bit, had a home in Sahuarita(ironically the same housing development where they are now having problems with the paint jobs on the houses, glad I sold that one haha), lived in Sabino Canyon for a few years(a few BAD years, don't ask haha), but for whatever reason, my favorite area was around the U of A....

East side was great too. Good people at that time, but I hear some of those neighborhoods have gone bad now...
 
But good to see the Ironwood Ridge program take off...Does Flowing Wells still play in 4A against Amphi and Salpointe Catholic in sports?
 
Haha...I lived in Rancho and got a letter for paint on the house we are trying to sell. Now I live in the Pulte area off of Houghton/Drexel. Living around the U would suck...all the restaurants/bars/girls walking around...who needs that?

FW fluctuates between 5A and 4A, think they are now 4A. My former coach, Pat Weber, has really taken that tourney to new heights. BTW, I met Coach Nelson back in the day...my parents were on one of the committees to get wrestling reinstated back in the early 90s. Just didn't work out.
 
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