Let’s Get To It - Score Predictions for Saturday!

[LandoComando]

Sincere question: We have averaged a little over 23 points per game over the past 11 years, eveb with some stinky squads, so why do some people seem to think it will be under that number this time? Is the belief that Ohio State is significantly better on defense? Or that the Penn State offense is down? Or some of both?

Ohio State, like us, is significantly better on defense. It's likely going to be difficult to have long sustained drives. We find splash plays which have been non existent. On paper it should be a highly contested defensive battle...so watch it be 44-41

 

[ryoder1]

My heart says (or wants) 28-17. We get some big turnovers and the offense takes advantage of them and plays controlled. Mid-4th, up 21-17, we have a drive similar to the Iowa game where we run, run, run straight at a tired OSU defense to go up 28-17.

My head says 27-10. We haven't won there since 2011 which was an odd year (understatement). Franklin just hasn't proven he can win vs OSU outside of the blocked FG. I wish I had more faith in his in-game decisions but I'm just not there yet. I refuse to believe they have a whole other playbook just for this game. I think they hit a few big plays that put our defense on its heels for the first time, go up 14-0 early and then it's a defensive struggle back and forth. I hope I'm wrong.

I don't think the defense is giving up big plays early to dig us a hole. I guess it could happen, maybe one if Harrison Jr. gets loose but two would be a complete unexpected nightmare. That actually has not happened in our other games there recently with worse teams. I don't think the spread in score gets to be more than 10 until maybe late when one team puts the dagger into the other.

 

[Wallace Breen]

Quarterback - Even
Running Back - Penn State
Wide Receiver - Ohio State and then some
Tight End - Even
Offensive Line - Ohio State
Defensive Line - Ohio State
Linebackers - Ohio State
Secondary - Even

With that said, this game comes down to 3rd downs, turnovers and stupid decisions by coaches. Allar has accuracy issues and in a game like this, they will be amplified by mediocre receivers and a poor offensive line likely leading to sacks and interceptions. Franklin has historically been prone to making stupid decisions in games like this but not as of late.

Ohio State 28
Penn State 17

 

[Crusher1950]

Psu has a real defensive this year 20 - 13 nits

 

[MacNit2.0]

17-14 PSU but my confidence is pretty low because of all the heartbreak in Columbus over the years

We have to be mentally focused and be ready to "win" when the opportunity is there. This means making a crucial third down stop, picking up a first down to keep a drive going/chew up clock, make a FG (not necessarily a game winner, see final note below), etc.

I listened to an OSU podcast and they believe their weak link is their offensive line against our defense. This means we have to be able to stop their running game and make them more one dimensional than they would want. We can then pressure McCord who is pretty slow and not nearly as elusive as your past OSU QBs. This enables us to utilize and leverage our elite defensive speed to create disruptive plays.

On offense, the converse needs to be true, we need to run the ball effectively. If we can get both Singleton and Allen going and churn out yards that will work great

If both these things happen which essentially is saying we win at the line of scrimmage then I like us to win.

Other things come into play like:

-We cannot turn the ball over
-Get Warren and Theo involved a lot
-Use the backs in the passing game
-Limit Harrison Jr, he will get his but he can't go off for like a buck fifty and 2 TDs

One final note: Don't want this game coming down to a FG. Their kicker, Fielding, has not missed a kick this year. And I don't want Felkins trying to make a 40 yard game winner.

Final, final note: I don't think we need a second WR to do much in this game to win and I don't think we will get it any way. Just don't see anyone doing much beyond KLS. We gotta ride our big 4 and Allar (Kaytron, Theo, Warren and Singleton).

The heartbreak under Franklin has been in Happy Valley. Outside of of one year, they have handled Franklin teams quite easily.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

I don't think the defense is giving up big plays early to dig us a hole. I guess it could happen, maybe one if Harrison Jr. gets loose but two would be a complete unexpected nightmare. That actually has not happened in our other games there recently with worse teams. I don't think the spread in score gets to be more than 10 until maybe late when one team puts the dagger into the other.

I took a look back at the 2021 and 2022 games and noted below the "splash" plays by OSU. Obviously, not all of these were TD plays but some resulted in scores.

2021

• 38 yd pass
• 58 yd pass
• 68 yd run
• 24 yd pass
• 22 yd run

2022

• 38 yd pass
• 23 yd pass
• 23 yd pass
• 21 yd pass
• 41 yd run
• 42 yd pass

Of course, I wouldn't necessarily consider 20-30 yd plays as "big" but they hurt a defense. If you only consider 30+ yd as a "big" play, that's 3 given up in 2021 and 3 in 2022. When I looked at the play-by-play list for both games, it was amazing how many penalties JPJ had--that has nothing to do with the topic you bring up but just found that interesting.

 

[Mufasa94]

Sincere question: We have averaged a little over 23 points per game over the past 11 years, eveb with some stinky squads, so why do some people seem to think it will be under that number this time?

PSU has topped that 23 point total 2 times in 15 trips to Ohio State since joining the Big Ten. Ohio State’s defense looks to be one of their better ones in recent times.

PSU hasn’t performed as well on the road so far this year. They have the ability and have fingers crossed they play up to it.

Wish this years home-away games were reversed for the 2 biggest matches. Would feel a lot more confident in a 1-1 split.

 

[PSUWrestlingFanSince2011]

View embedded media

Dude

 

[bdgan]

The heartbreak under Franklin has been in Happy Valley. Outside of of one year, they have handled Franklin teams quite easily.

2017 OSU 39, PSU 38
2018 OSU 27, PSU 26

IIRC PSU had 2+ score leads in the 4th quarter of both of these games. I wouldn't say that OSU handled PSU easily. Even last year's game OSU won 44-31 but PSU was leading with about 9 minutes remaining in Q4.

 

[pennstater04]

PSU 31, OSU 17. PSU Defense dominates. OSU picks up a late score after game well in hand.

 

[MacNit2.0]

2017 OSU 39, PSU 38
2018 OSU 27, PSU 26

IIRC PSU had 2+ score leads in the 4th quarter of both of these games. I wouldn't say that OSU handled PSU easily. Even last year's game OSU won 44-31 but PSU was leading with about 9 minutes remaining in Q4.

Read again…in Columbus we were handled easily (outside 2017)..

 

[ryoder1]

I took a look back at the 2021 and 2022 games and noted below the "splash" plays by OSU. Obviously, not all of these were TD plays but some resulted in scores.

2021

• 38 yd pass
• 58 yd pass
• 68 yd run
• 24 yd pass
• 22 yd run

2022

• 38 yd pass
• 23 yd pass
• 23 yd pass
• 21 yd pass
• 41 yd run
• 42 yd pass

Of course, I wouldn't necessarily consider 20-30 yd plays as "big" but they hurt a defense. If you only consider 30+ yd as a "big" play, that's 3 given up in 2021 and 3 in 2022. When I looked at the play-by-play list for both games, it was amazing how many penalties JPJ had--that has nothing to do with the topic you bring up but just found that interesting.

Different defense. Yeah it would not surprise me if we give up a 30 yard play, maybe a couple but we certainly can weather that storm.

 

[LMTLION]

PSU 26 - OSU 16. I think we methodically move the ball up and down the field to play keep away. This is a game in which we would prefer a 10 play 80 yard drive vs a 1 play 80 yard run.

 

[IANit]

I’ll lead off with some thoughts..
1. PSU narrowly wins the turnover battle, 2-1.
2. The PSU run game is more effective than anyone imagined, with both KA & NS exceeding 75 yards.
3. Tre Wallace is offensive MVP with 8 catches for 96 yards.
4. Kalen King follows MH3 all over the field, limiting him to 4 rec for 49 yards.
5. Abdul Carter shows out with 2 sacks and is a disruptive force throughout the game.
6. Curtis Jacobs is the consistent veteran presence, leading the team with 9 tackles.

Final: PSU 24, tOSU 20

WE ARE!!!

We come out aggressive and punch them in the mouth. We get a pick 6 and maybe a special teams TD and we come put of the gate playing well on offense. We finally get a long-awaited long Singleton TD as well as a few sustained drives with Allen doing a lot of the damage. They try to put the pressure on Allar, but he show them he is ready, being effective when needed and we jump out big as the front 7 harasses McCord and shuts down the run and McCord starts poorly through the air as Diaz maximizes the pressure on him. Ohio State mounts a comeback with a couple of quick Harrison TDs and we're feeling like it's 2017 all over again, but we've finally learned how to close out games, stringing together some first downs when needed. Penn State 38, Ohio State 27.

 

[IANit]

PSU has topped that 23 point total 2 times in 15 trips to Ohio State since joining the Big Ten. Ohio State’s defense looks to be one of their better ones in recent times.

PSU hasn’t performed as well on the road so far this year. They have the ability and have fingers crossed they play up to it.

Wish this years home-away games were reversed for the 2 biggest matches. Would feel a lot more confident in a 1-1 split.

You're assuming the points will all come on offense. Bad assumption IMO. We've scored 23 or more in 6 of our last 7 (although that one was in Columbus) against Ohio State and 2 of our last 3 there. Going back to when we joined the Big Ten isn't relevant. I don't think anything before 2016 is relevant to how a Franklin-led team will do there. We should put up some points. So will they. The key will be whether our defense can slow them down so that we have more points at the end.

 

[91Joe95]

27-13 PSU

 

[pennstatepelly]

Quarterback - Even
Running Back - Penn State
Wide Receiver - Ohio State and then some
Tight End - Even
Offensive Line - Ohio State
Defensive Line - Ohio State
Linebackers - Ohio State
Secondary - Even

With that said, this game comes down to 3rd downs, turnovers and stupid decisions by coaches. Allar has accuracy issues and in a game like this, they will be amplified by mediocre receivers and a poor offensive line likely leading to sacks and interceptions. Franklin has historically been prone to making stupid decisions in games like this but not as of late.

Ohio State 28
Penn State 17

Right on cue. You’re exactly like a broken watch.

 

[Mufasa94]

You're assuming the points will all come on offense. Bad assumption IMO.

What did I assume? I stated facts about past history and said my fingers are crossed.

We've scored 23 or more in 6 of our last 7 (although that one was in Columbus) against Ohio State and 2 of our last 3 there. Going back to when we joined the Big Ten isn't relevant. I don't think anything before 2016 is relevant to how a Franklin-led team will do there.

Being 2016 and the majority of those 6 happened here, those aren’t relevant to there. Doesn’t leave much left. Basically, out there, tOSU has kept PSU at arm’s length at best except for 2017.

We should put up some points. So will they. The key will be whether our defense can slow them down so that we have more points at the end.

That is the hope.

 

[PennSt8er]

I predict a typical frustrating game on O, field position being key, one missed FG from PSU, one turnover, but PSU has too many weapons and a stifling D. So this one will be a low scoring game with PSU 17, OSU 13.

 

[PSUWrestlingFanSince2011]

Quarterback - Even
Running Back - Penn State
Wide Receiver - Ohio State and then some
Tight End - Even
Offensive Line - Ohio State
Defensive Line - Ohio State
Linebackers - Ohio State
Secondary - Even

With that said, this game comes down to 3rd downs, turnovers and stupid decisions by coaches. Allar has accuracy issues and in a game like this, they will be amplified by mediocre receivers and a poor offensive line likely leading to sacks and interceptions. Franklin has historically been prone to making stupid decisions in games like this but not as of late.

Ohio State 28
Penn State 17

OL OSU? No