I take it back about Ellis Brooks making the wrong decision to leave for the NFL draft early

[Online Persona]

I thought he left too soon, not be given much of a chance, and he'd be out of football. He went undrafted, signed a brief free agent contract, and was gone from the NFL. But I forgot about the XFL. Maybe he can stick there?

Ellis Brooks, LB, D.C. Defenders*

Linebacker Ellis Brooks was originally drafted by the Houston Roughnecks with the No. 61 overall pick in the eighth round of the XFL Draft, but he made his way to the Defenders, where he’ll begin the season on the reserve list. Brooks left Penn State after the 2021 season to cap a career that featured 230 tackles, including 100 as a redshirt senior, 15 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and one interception. He was signed by the Green Bay Packers as an undrafted free agent last spring, but he failed to latch on in the NFL.

 

[ram2020]

So in one year he got all the evidence needed to determine he isn't anywhere close to an NFL talent....staying at Penn state one more year wasn't going to change that.

 

[Online Persona]

So in one year he got all the evidence needed to determine he isn't anywhere close to an NFL talent....staying at Penn state one more year wasn't going to change that.

Where you are drafted or not drafted makes a huge difference in the opportunity that you are given to stick in the NFL. Early rounds, long leash. Late rounds, short leash. Undrafted, who cares? For an NFL team and undrafted free agent is an almost no cost flyer that either flashes or is immediately gone. Had Brooks stayed, maybe he is a late round guy and has a better than 50% chance to stick at least for a year or 2. We can't know that now. But the odds of sticking in the NFL are SIGNIFICANTLY higher if you get drafted and if you get drafted even 1 round higher.

Below are the % of draft picks by round that are in the NFL after up to 5 years.

​

Round	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
1	99.7%	93.5%	83.9%	77.4%	71.0%
2	96.8%	96.1%	83.9%	74.2%	41.9%
3	96.9%	75.1%	62.5%	37.5%	18.8%
4	91.4%	74.3%	54.3%	34.3%	17.2%
5	81.1%	56.8%	37.8%	24.3%	16.2%
6	70.2%	57.5%	35.3%	20.9%	10.6%
7	58.3%	45.8%	31.3%	21.7%	16.7%

Source: https://www.milehighreport.com/2014/5/13/5713996/how-long-does-the-average-draft-pick-stick-around

Now, they don't list data for undrafted players but you can see the precipitous drop off in the late rounds for being on the roster in just year 1.

So how low are the odds for undrafted players? "Of everyone who has played a snap in an NFL game, less than 0.9% entered the league as undrafted free agents." Keep in mind that each year, every team signs more undrafted players to free agent flyer contracts than they actually draft. So do the math, your sample size of undrafted players is larger than the entire draft each year but only 0.9% of players who ever play a snap in the NFL were undrafted. https://jokermag.com/best-undrafted-nfl-players/

 

[ram2020]

Well sourced and fair argument, but looking at Ellis's particular situation, its hard to know that another year at Penn state gets him drafted. It seems like he isn't an NFL player and coming out earlier just merely gave him that indication sooner. The NFL is littered with guys that should have/should not have come out when they did. For every Ellis brooks there is a Ryan Bates that comes out and suprises.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I’ve got DC’s defense on my fantasy XFL team so hoping for good things out of them.

 

[Online Persona]

Well sourced and fair argument, but looking at Ellis's particular situation, its hard to know that another year at Penn state gets him drafted. It seems like he isn't an NFL player and coming out earlier just merely gave him that indication sooner. The NFL is littered with guys that should have/should not have come out when they did. For every Ellis brooks there is a Ryan Bates that comes out and suprises.

Players and whomever advises them need to make smart, informed decisions.

1) Contract money by round is very, very different. Even 1 round higher is an enormous difference in pay. That means players have to maximize their draft position.

2) Sticking in the NFL is a function of which round you are drafted. The odds go up significantly with just 1 round higher in the draft and it is night and day difference between drafted verses undrafted. Teams give a longer look to players based on what they invested in them. That means players have to maximize their draft position.

3) The vast majority of players will improve their draft position if they return to college for an additional year. 20-, 21-, and 22-year-olds are getting strong and faster with additional training and they are further developing their game and knowledge with more experience. The overwhelming majority of those who return instead of leaving early will improve their draft positions. They can take out insurance to protect against injury on their current draft evaluation.

4) The only instances where leaving early make sense for their career and financially:

a) Rd 1 or 2 grade.
b) College team has a young player or inbound player that will take their playing time.
c) They know that they have peaked athletically.
d) College team is going in a different direction (like a coaching change or their whole OL is moving on, etc.).

 

[The Spin Meister]

Where you are drafted or not drafted makes a huge difference in the opportunity that you are given to stick in the NFL. Early rounds, long leash. Late rounds, short leash. Undrafted, who cares? For an NFL team and undrafted free agent is an almost no cost flyer that either flashes or is immediately gone. Had Brooks stayed, maybe he is a late round guy and has a better than 50% chance to stick at least for a year or 2. We can't know that now. But the odds of sticking in the NFL are SIGNIFICANTLY higher if you get drafted and if you get drafted even 1 round higher.

Below are the % of draft picks by round that are in the NFL after up to 5 years.

​

Round	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
1	99.7%	93.5%	83.9%	77.4%	71.0%
2	96.8%	96.1%	83.9%	74.2%	41.9%
3	96.9%	75.1%	62.5%	37.5%	18.8%
4	91.4%	74.3%	54.3%	34.3%	17.2%
5	81.1%	56.8%	37.8%	24.3%	16.2%
6	70.2%	57.5%	35.3%	20.9%	10.6%
7	58.3%	45.8%	31.3%	21.7%	16.7%

Source: https://www.milehighreport.com/2014/5/13/5713996/how-long-does-the-average-draft-pick-stick-around

Now, they don't list data for undrafted players but you can see the precipitous drop off in the late rounds for being on the roster in just year 1.

So how low are the odds for undrafted players? "Of everyone who has played a snap in an NFL game, less than 0.9% entered the league as undrafted free agents." Keep in mind that each year, every team signs more undrafted players to free agent flyer contracts than they actually draft. So do the math, your sample size of undrafted players is larger than the entire draft each year but only 0.9% of players who ever play a snap in the NFL were undrafted. https://jokermag.com/best-undrafted-nfl-players/

Interesting. In years four and five the six round picks do significantly worse than seven round picks.

 

[Online Persona]

Interesting. In years four and five the six round picks do significantly worse than seven round picks.

It's a decades worth of data. That is an anomalous data point IMO. However, it is note worthy IMO that if you are drafted in rounds 3 through 7, then you basically have about the same odds of getting to a 5th season in the NFL. The odds for a 3rd rounder making it to their first few years is much better but that 2nd contract weighs more how well you produced rather than which round you were drafted.

 

[The Spin Meister]

It's a decades worth of data. That is an anomalous data point IMO. However, it is note worthy IMO that if you are drafted in rounds 3 through 7, then you basically have about the same odds of getting to a 5th season in the NFL. The odds for a 3rd rounder making it to their first few years is much better but that 2nd contract weighs more how well you produced rather than which round you were drafted.

My guess was that 7th round is where they pick kids from very small schools. Great athletes that are untested by quality competition. But just a guess.

The difference is pretty substantial in year five so there is something there. Would be interesting to ask some NFL GM or a draft guru for an explanation.

 

[Online Persona]

My guess was that 7th round is where they pick kids from very small schools. Great athletes that are untested by quality competition. But just a guess.

The difference is pretty substantial in year five so there is something there. Would be interesting to ask some NFL GM or a draft guru for an explanation.

Perhaps that's it. Sounds reasonable to me.

 

[Agoodnap]

Isn't education a reason to stay in college?

 

[Online Persona]

Isn't education a reason to stay in college?

For nfl draft prospects, it seems rare. Fashanu shocked us making it his priority. He is a rarity in many ways.

 

[The Spin Meister]

Isn't education a reason to stay in college?

Well, for a few people going to college is to qualify for a better job than one would get out of high school.

So if a player figures he can get drafted and make a half mill or more then his time in college fulfilled its mission.

Yes a degree will be important when the football career ends but one can always go back to finish.

And not going pro when available risks injury that could end playing time or significantly reduce financial returns….. which negates the purpose of going to college.

 

[Online Persona]

Well, for a few people going to college is to qualify for a better job than one would get out of high school.

So if a player figures he can get drafted and make a half mill or more then his time in college fulfilled its mission.

Yes a degree will be important when the football career ends but one can always go back to finish.

And not going pro when available risks injury that could end playing time or significantly reduce financial returns….. which negates the purpose of going to college.

Again, you can insure to protect your draft evaluation against injury. You can't get back the money or increased chances of sticking in the NFL that comes from improving your draft position. A very high percentage of NFL prospects will increase their draft position with another year of development and growth. A low percentage may hurt their draft position with another year of development. The smart thing is to maximize your draft stock by not leaving early unless you are a 1st or 2nd round lock.

 

[WIP2001]

1. Believe he graduated
2. Unless he was going to grow 3 inches in his last year, his draft stock wasn’t going to change. He just doesn’t have the size/speed the nfl wants.

 

[Online Persona]

1. Believe he graduated
2. Unless he was going to grow 3 inches in his last year, his draft stock wasn’t going to change. He just doesn’t have the size/speed the nfl wants.

Perhaps his upside growth and development was less than many who return to complete their eligibility but he wasn't far from getting drafted. 5 hundredths of a second on his 40 time, a couple more reps of 225, a slight improvement on his season production. Any of these could have been the difference between drafted late and better than 50% chance of sticking that first year or 2 (look at the numbers I posted above) or hanging around a few weeks on an undrafted free agent contract.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Perhaps his upside growth and development was less than many who return to complete their eligibility but he wasn't far from getting drafted. 5 hundredths of a second on his 40 time, a couple more reps of 225, a slight improvement on his season production. Any of these could have been the difference between drafted late and better than 50% chance of sticking that first year or 2 (look at the numbers I posted above) or hanging around a few weeks on an undrafted free agent contract.

Most players/agents would tell you they would rather go undrafted as they get into the 7th round.

 

[WIP2001]

Perhaps his upside growth and development was less than many who return to complete their eligibility but he wasn't far from getting drafted. 5 hundredths of a second on his 40 time, a couple more reps of 225, a slight improvement on his season production. Any of these could have been the difference between drafted late and better than 50% chance of sticking that first year or 2 (look at the numbers I posted above) or hanging around a few weeks on an undrafted free agent contract.

Maybe. I will say he proved me wrong and turned into an elite run defender. His preparation and instincts were off the charts by his Sr year. He fired into gaps like he knew the play call. Basically the opposite of what our LBers did against UM this year.

 

[voltz99]

Players and whomever advises them need to make smart, informed decisions.

1) Contract money by round is very, very different. Even 1 round higher is an enormous difference in pay. That means players have to maximize their draft position.

2) Sticking in the NFL is a function of which round you are drafted. The odds go up significantly with just 1 round higher in the draft and it is night and day difference between drafted verses undrafted. Teams give a longer look to players based on what they invested in them. That means players have to maximize their draft position.

3) The vast majority of players will improve their draft position if they return to college for an additional year. 20-, 21-, and 22-year-olds are getting strong and faster with additional training and they are further developing their game and knowledge with more experience. The overwhelming majority of those who return instead of leaving early will improve their draft positions. They can take out insurance to protect against injury on their current draft evaluation.

4) The only instances where leaving early make sense for their career and financially:

a) Rd 1 or 2 grade.
b) College team has a young player or inbound player that will take their playing time.
c) They know that they have peaked athletically.
d) College team is going in a different direction (like a coaching change or their whole OL is moving on, etc.).

All goes out the window when you acknowledge most players are NOT NFL talents and sticking around an extra year or two does not change that for most players.

 

[Online Persona]

Most players/agents would tell you they would rather go undrafted as they get into the 7th round.

The math says otherwise. See the data I posted above. 58.3% of 7th round draft picks make it through their 1st year. Only 0.9% of undrafted players EVER play a down. The math says you want to get drafted.

 

[Online Persona]

All goes out the window when you acknowledge most players are NOT NFL talents and sticking around an extra year or two does not change that for most players.

1) Even the ones who are not quite NFL level usually think that they are and want to maximize their chances at the NFL.

2) Sticking around an extra year or two results in higher formal degrees which increases their earning potential for life.

 

[DandyDonII]

The math says otherwise. See the data I posted above. 58.3% of 7th round draft picks make it through their 1st year. Only 0.9% of undrafted players EVER play a down. The math says you want to get drafted.

on the flip side of that, the # of 7th rounders that are signed are limited to the number of 7th round picks. There is no limit on how many undrafted players can be signed (only limit is roster size). The benefit of being an undrafted FA is that you can pick the best of your options for your talent that are interested in you, as opposed to be taken by whatever team selects you....

 

[Online Persona]

on the flip side of that, the # of 7th rounders that are signed are limited to the number of 7th round picks. There is no limit on how many undrafted players can be signed (only limit is roster size). The benefit of being an undrafted FA is that you can pick the best of your options for your talent that are interested in you, as opposed to be taken by whatever team selects you....

Aware of that. Statistically speaking, you have on the order of 10x better chance of sticking around and getting paid even 1 year if you are drafted in the 7th round verses going undrafted free agent. It comes down to a team invested a draft pick in you and they are going to give you more of an opportunity to make it because they invested in you. Undrafted free agents are essentially flyers that they could care less about.

 

[PSUWrestlingFanSince2011]

So in one year he got all the evidence needed to determine he isn't anywhere close to an NFL talent....staying at Penn state one more year wasn't going to change that.

lol what a dumb take, no offense

 

[Erial_Lion]

Aware of that. Statistically speaking, you have on the order of 10x better chance of sticking around and getting paid even 1 year if you are drafted in the 7th round verses going undrafted free agent. It comes down to a team invested a draft pick in you and they are going to give you more of an opportunity to make it because they invested in you. Undrafted free agents are essentially flyers that they could care less about.

You’re looking at those statistics too widely then…guys on the fringes of getting drafted are those in that huge group of guys most likely to stick around.

It’s like looking at a guy playing for Alabama and determining his odds of getting drafted by looking at the odds of any D1 football player getting drafted.

Many guys are signed as camp kickers or practice arms…others are signed thinking they have a good chance to stick.

 

[Online Persona]

You’re looking at those statistics too widely then…guys on the fringes of getting drafted are those in that huge group of guys most likely to stick around.

It’s like looking at a guy playing for Alabama and determining his odds of getting drafted by looking at the odds of any D1 football player getting drafted.

Many guys are signed as camp kickers or practice arms…others are signed thinking they have a good chance to stick.

Before I retired, I was the laboratory program director at a major university in a hard science department. I'm pretty confident in my ability to analyze data.

I'm not going to throw out the overwhelming statistical evidence that you have a much higher chance of sticking in the NFL if you are drafted, even in the 7th round, when compared to undrafted free agency.

If you want to make a compelling statistical argument, then I'd be happy to analyze that.

 

[The Spin Meister]

The math says otherwise. See the data I posted above. 58.3% of 7th round draft picks make it through their 1st year. Only 0.9% of undrafted players EVER play a down. The math says you want to get drafted.

The data is incomplete for your conclusion. It does not include the age or how many years of college the UFA or last rounders have played. You need that to determine if an extra year would help.

I would guess there is a large percentage of first and second round guys that still had eligibility left. A lot of the 7th rounders and UFA are guys with no eligibility left.

 

[Online Persona]

The data is incomplete for your conclusion. It does not include the age or how many years of college the UFA or last rounders have played. You need that to determine if an extra year would help.

I would guess there is a large percentage of first and second round guys that still had eligibility left. A lot of the 7th rounders and UFA are guys with no eligibility left.

No. You want a perfect data set? You rarely have that in making life decisions. You use as complete and relevant data as available, analyze various COAs, and execute a plan.

If you ignore data because it is not exhaustive or spend all your time and effort to collect exhaustive data then you are likely stuck in analysis paralysis.

Would I like more granularity in the data? Sure. Am I willing to conduct an exhaustive 10 year plus study with that granularity? No.

Further, even more granularity isn't likely to impact 2 primary facts.

1. If you stay another year, you are significantly more likely to improve your draft stock and likely by at least a round or more. This is the nature of growth, maturation, and learning any profession when you are 20, 21, or 22 years old. That also increases your earnings potential in the NFL by large sums.

2. If you have a legit 1st or 2nd round grade, you are likely in a position to take it now. Point 1 applies to nearly all others.

 

[voltz99]

No. You want a perfect data set? You rarely have that in making life decisions. You use as complete and relevant data as available, analyze various COAs, and execute a plan.

If you ignore data because it is not exhaustive or spend all your time and effort to collect exhaustive data then you are likely stuck in analysis paralysis.

Would I like more granularity in the data? Sure. Am I willing to conduct an exhaustive 10 year plus study with that granularity? No.

Further, even more granularity isn't likely to impact 2 primary facts.

1. If you stay another year, you are significantly more likely to improve your draft stock and likely by at least a round or more. This is the nature of growth, maturation, and learning any profession when you are 20, 21, or 22 years old. That also increases your earnings potential in the NFL by large sums.

2. If you have a legit 1st or 2nd round grade, you are likely in a position to take it now. Point 1 applies to nearly all others.

Totally FLAWED logic. Like I said MOST of them are not NFL caliber. Your logic applies to a few dozen players. First two rounds have 64 picks. 224 players drafted TOTAL. 10,000+ DI football players each year. If a player does move up then someone else is moving down. Did the players that moved down stay too long? Did they players that moved down get bad advice?


If a player has no shot at the NFL would you advise them to quit the team?

 

[Online Persona]

Totally FLAWED logic. Like I said MOST of them are not NFL caliber. Your logic applies to a few dozen players. First two rounds have 64 picks. 224 players drafted TOTAL. 10,000+ DI football players each year. If a player does move up then someone else is moving down. Did the players that moved down stay too long? Did they players that moved down get bad advice?


If a player has no shot at the NFL would you advise them to quit the team?

I'll be honest, I'm not even sure what you are trying to say here.

 

[bdgan]

I thought he left too soon, not be given much of a chance, and he'd be out of football. He went undrafted, signed a brief free agent contract, and was gone from the NFL. But I forgot about the XFL. Maybe he can stick there?

Ellis Brooks, LB, D.C. Defenders*

Linebacker Ellis Brooks was originally drafted by the Houston Roughnecks with the No. 61 overall pick in the eighth round of the XFL Draft, but he made his way to the Defenders, where he’ll begin the season on the reserve list. Brooks left Penn State after the 2021 season to cap a career that featured 230 tackles, including 100 as a redshirt senior, 15 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and one interception. He was signed by the Green Bay Packers as an undrafted free agent last spring, but he failed to latch on in the NFL.

XFL players make roughly $60k. I doubt if players on the reserve list make much at all.

 

[lazydave841]

I'll be honest, I'm not even sure what you are trying to say here.

1. You seemingly made this thread to revive an old discussion under the guise that you changed your mind on the topic. Perhaps you were being sarcastic in the OP, but for the remainder of the thread you reverted.

2. The person you responded to doesn't agree with you. He listed other criteria and outcomes. You are smart enough to respond. You chose not to under the guise of "I don't understand ya, bro."

At the end of it all, Brooks has an opportunity in the XFL. If he turns this into an NFL career, then perhaps you have merit in your thoughts and maybe he should have returned. Many here don't agree with you for a multitude of reasons. He went to an NFL camp and was among the first cuts and nobody else picked him up. Perhaps being a 7th round pick means a team gives him more opportunity, but to be cut as quick as he was and nobody else picks you up = you probably don't have it.

And that's OK. The percentage of people who have drawn an NFL paycheck is low. He started at a P5 D1 school. He just isn't quite NFL level.

 

[Online Persona]

1. You seemingly made this thread to revive an old discussion under the guise that you changed your mind on the topic. Perhaps you were being sarcastic in the OP, but for the remainder of the thread you reverted.

2. The person you responded to doesn't agree with you. He listed other criteria and outcomes. You are smart enough to respond. You chose not to under the guise of "I don't understand ya, bro."

At the end of it all, Brooks has an opportunity in the XFL. If he turns this into an NFL career, then perhaps you have merit in your thoughts and maybe he should have returned. Many here don't agree with you for a multitude of reasons. He went to an NFL camp and was among the first cuts and nobody else picked him up. Perhaps being a 7th round pick means a team gives him more opportunity, but to be cut as quick as he was and nobody else picks you up = you probably don't have it.

And that's OK. The percentage of people who have drawn an NFL paycheck is low. He started at a P5 D1 school. He just isn't quite NFL level.

1. Yes, you picked up on the sarcasm.
2. I don't understand what voltz is trying to say. Perhaps you can translate? I know he disagrees with me, the data I put forward above, or the obvious analysis of that data. But what he is trying to argue is not at all clear to me.

Note: This poster is also currently engaged in a lengthy argument that Coach Franklin doesn't play the players that give him the best chance to win. I am not the only one having a hard time understanding him.

 

[lazydave841]

If a player does move up then someone else is moving down. Did the players that moved down stay too long? Did they players that moved down get bad advice?

Perhaps you can translate?

I'll use Rasheed Walker as an example of what he's saying.

He was projected to be a mid round pick after '20. Some mocks had 1st or 2nd round potential.

He returns for '21. You know, the supposed year of getting stronger and more draft worthy. And he plays worse. He barely got drafted.

Did he make a mistake returning? Did he get bad advice? Why didn't he improve his draft stock?

What about Spencer Rattler? Talk about a case of "if only he could have declared after 2 years". He's now returning to cfb again after being projected as a top 10 pick prior to his 3rd year.

 

[Online Persona]

I'll use Rasheed Walker as an example of what he's saying.

He was projected to be a mid round pick after '20. Some mocks had 1st or 2nd round potential.

He returns for '21. You know, the supposed year of getting stronger and more draft worthy. And he plays worse. He barely got drafted.

Did he make a mistake returning? Did he get bad advice? Why didn't he improve his draft stock?

What about Spencer Rattler? Talk about a case of "if only he could have declared after 2 years". He's now returning to cfb again after being projected as a top 10 pick prior to his 3rd year.

The vast majority of players returning IMPROVE THEIR DRAFT POSITION with an additional year. Anyone can identify a bunch of examples that aren't in the majority. Not sure of the exact % of players returning that improved their draft stock verses those that declined, but it is likely 3 or 4 players improving their draft stock to every 1 that does not. That is the nature of 20, 21, and 22 year olds. They get stronger, faster, better technique, better game understanding, better film study and application to the game. The vast majority improve.

How do I know this? Look at stats for 100 players by year. Probably 80% or better improve their stats over their college career. Look at the weight room numbers. Probably 80% or better improve their lift numbers, their speed, their lean mass, they fill out, etc.

Your argument seems to hinge on some small percentage of players peak before their college eligibility is up. That's not a logical argument that most shouldn't come back if they have less than a round 2 grade and eligibility remaining. You seem to be arguing that because a small percent don't improve, then players should just leave before fully maximizing their draft potential.

 

[bdgan]

The vast majority of players returning IMPROVE THEIR DRAFT POSITION with an additional year. Anyone can identify a bunch of examples that aren't in the majority. Not sure of the exact % of players returning that improved their draft stock verses those that declined, but it is likely 3 or 4 players improving their draft stock to every 1 that does not. That is the nature of 20, 21, and 22 year olds. They get stronger, faster, better technique, better game understanding, better film study and application to the game. The vast majority improve.

How do I know this? Look at stats for 100 players by year. Probably 80% or better improve their stats over their college career. Look at the weight room numbers. Probably 80% or better improve their lift numbers, their speed, their lean mass, they fill out, etc.

Your argument seems to hinge on some small percentage of players peak before their college eligibility is up. That's not a logical argument that most shouldn't come back if they have less than a round 2 grade and eligibility remaining. You seem to be arguing that because a small percent don't improve, then players should just leave before fully maximizing their draft potential.

I suspect some players will jump at a $700k first year paycheck and try to work their way up rather than return in hopes of getting a $2 million paycheck a year later.

 

[lazydave841]

The vast majority of players returning IMPROVE THEIR DRAFT POSITION with an additional year. Anyone can identify a bunch of examples that aren't in the majority. Not sure of the exact % of players returning that improved their draft stock verses those that declined, but it is likely 3 or 4 players improving their draft stock to every 1 that does not. That is the nature of 20, 21, and 22 year olds. They get stronger, faster, better technique, better game understanding, better film study and application to the game. The vast majority improve.

How do I know this? Look at stats for 100 players by year. Probably 80% or better improve their stats over their college career. Look at the weight room numbers. Probably 80% or better improve their lift numbers, their speed, their lean mass, they fill out, etc.

Your argument seems to hinge on some small percentage of players peak before their college eligibility is up. That's not a logical argument that most shouldn't come back if they have less than a round 2 grade and eligibility remaining. You seem to be arguing that because a small percent don't improve, then players should just leave before fully maximizing their draft potential.

Show me the stats where 80% of every draft eligible player improved his draft stock by returning for one more year. That's YOUR assumption. It's not FACTUAL. Do you think getting your bench press from 12 to 15 reps matters greatly? That might matter if 2 players are close in evaluations, not as a general rule. Simply returning and being stronger, faster per say is not an end all "he's improved his draft stock".

As has been pointed out, only 262ish kids are drafted every year out of the 10000+ who play college football. Brooks wasn't one of those kids after FIVE years of college. Returning for the previously unprecedented 6th year (barring multiple season ending injuries) was not a guarantee of him improving his draft stock and being drafted.

Let's see if he can turn the XFL run into an NFL roster spot this coming fall.

 

[bdgan]

Show me the stats where 80% of every draft eligible player improved his draft stock by returning for one more year. That's YOUR assumption. It's not FACTUAL. Do you think getting your bench press from 12 to 15 reps matters greatly? That might matter if 2 players are close in evaluations, not as a general rule. Simply returning and being stronger, faster per say is not an end all "he's improved his draft stock".

only 262ish kids are drafted every year out of the 10000+ who play college football.

Roughly 70 P5 teams. Assume 20 on each team are juniors or seniors who start. I'd say it's more like 262 out of 1,400.

Of course some non P5 players get drafted.

 

[Online Persona]

Show me the stats where 80% of every draft eligible player improved his draft stock by returning for one more year. That's YOUR assumption. It's not FACTUAL. Do you think getting your bench press from 12 to 15 reps matters greatly? That might matter if 2 players are close in evaluations, not as a general rule. Simply returning and being stronger, faster per say is not an end all "he's improved his draft stock".

As has been pointed out, only 262ish kids are drafted every year out of the 10000+ who play college football. Brooks wasn't one of those kids after FIVE years of college. Returning for the previously unprecedented 6th year (barring multiple season ending injuries) was not a guarantee of him improving his draft stock and being drafted.

Let's see if he can turn the XFL run into an NFL roster spot this coming fall.

80% improving with an additional year is a much better assumption than 50% or less which appears to be the assumption you and others are making when you claim it doesn't matter if they return. 20 to 22 year old athletes in high level training programs continue to grow, develop, gain size and/or speed, improve technique and leverage, improve game understanding, improve their preparation and film study. This is the time in your life where you are ripe to learn and grow more so than nearly any other time. An assumption of 80% of 20 to 22 year olds improving with another year might be low balling it.

 

[lazydave841]

An assumption of 80% of 20 to 22 year olds improving

Improving their squat, bench, and power clean? Sure.

Improving their draft stock? No. It's not certain.

Ideally, I am on your side. Brooks could have brought stability to our LB corp early on, but I remember Illinois '21 when he looked like the rest of our defense did vs Michigan '22, so I'm not exactly sure that a returning Brooks increases our '22 win total nor that he puts anything on film that gets him drafted in '23.

Let's see what he does in the XFL.