Hurricane Florence Expected to Rapidly Intensify; Serious Rainfall Threat for U.S. East Coast
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/H...tensify-Serious-Rainfall-Threat-US-East-Coast
Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter royboy
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Hurricane Florence Expected to Rapidly Intensify; Serious Rainfall Threat for U.S. East Coast
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/H...tensify-Serious-Rainfall-Threat-US-East-Coast
Hurricane Florence Expected to Rapidly Intensify; Serious Rainfall Threat for U.S. East Coast
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/H...tensify-Serious-Rainfall-Threat-US-East-Coast
Yikes. MD is going to slide into the ocean. Not sure how much more rain we can take.
I dont' think I'll be going to this weeks game.
I am bringing lots of rain gear. 
Was hoping for a fun fall weekend, as this is our first home game in a few years. Maybe not.
Was hoping for a fun fall weekend, as this is our first home game in a few years. Maybe not.
The EPAWA guys think most of the rainfall stays south of the Mason-Dixon line. Anything could change but that's their thinking today.
I think Florence formed earlier off the African coast while Gordon formed near the Gulf of Mexico.
Fll was meandering around the Atlantic before heading west. Gordon formed closer to the US.
From around 8am Monday morning:
I posted Saturday night that the Pitt game was good practice for what we're likely to have for the Kent State game. I don't see how you can look at a map like this, regardless of the cone uncertainty, and expect that we won't have heavy rain in the northeast at some point this weekend. Cat 4 storm remnants either pass right over or we get the east side of it. A blocking cold front maybe? We'll see.
Not a professional weather guy, but living in Florida I study hurricane activity very closely.From around 8am Monday morning:
I will say that might be the narrowest 5 day cone I've ever seen, so the NHC must feel very confident. All the major models are in very close alignment.
Difficult to predict how much rain Central PA will see from this far out though. I would bet Saturday will be wet.
The female named storms are called "crazy" and "vicious". The male named storms are called "strong" and "intense". Double standard???
(Yes, I'm being sarcastic.)
Here are the current computer models. I hope this works posting from my phone.
Same thoughts here. My daughter lives midway between Bethany Beach and Dagsboro so I've been keeping an anxious eye on this for the past four or five days. Very narrow cone now. Sucks for NC and SC but I'm breathing easier now.
We have a place in Nags Head - and I got the Dare County evacuation notice a few hours ago via robocall and text. Hoping for the best for everyone...
A
anon_1eeb2b426hv3y
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I like that dark line heading due north avoiding the US and heading towards Iceland or Ireland.Here are the current computer models. I hope this works posting from my phone.
The female named storms are called "crazy" and "vicious". The male named storms are called "strong" and "intense". Double standard???
Not to mention that Female Hurricanes can never reach their full potential due to an invisible glass ceiling which keeps them at a Category 3 or lower.
Who was the poster that forecast Super Storm Sandy a week out? He also had some very accurate forecasts of other storms. BWI something????
My parents just drove to OBX area from PA and now are under mandatory evacuation by tomorrow. They tried to squeeze a couple days in before Florence hit since they already paid for the house.
We're twenty nine posts into this thread (not counting mine), and nothing about Female Hurricanes sucking and blowing and then taking the house?
Flag ...
Have you ever been through a hurricane? I've been through probably a dozen or so. I went down to Homestead right after Andrew w/ a friend to his folks place - where he grew up. He couldn't find his house because all discernible landmarks were gone. Now they paint street names on the curbs. I haven't joked about natural disasters much since.
I believe the cone has in the past represented historical statistical uncertainty (something like 66th percentile) based on roughly the previous 5 years of forecast data. In other words, the meteorologists at the NHC aren't adjusting the cone shape based on their confidence level in the current forecast, unless their approach has recently changed. Can anyone confirm/refute?
Figure 4. Analyzed departure of precipitation from the 1981-2010 average for the 60-day period ending at 8 am EDT Sunday, September 9, 2018. The totals are calculated from a multi-sensor blend of rain-gauge, radar, and satellite reports. Parts of coastal NC/VA and a large swath from the Washington-Baltimore area through central Pennsylvania have received 8" to 12" more rainfall than normal over the last two months, increasing the flood danger from rains that may fall from Florence. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.
I’m pretty sure people just referred to it as the cone of uncertainty mainly because they were rarely close. We use to joke that the safest place early on was to be actually in the cone. As the other poster mentioned, this was the tighest cone I’ve ever seen too and I think they have gotten a lot better at predicting these things over the last 2 years. I’m not sure what they do different now but something has definitely changed.
I can't claim to be an expert, but I know the cone relies fairly heavily on the models.
During Matthew 2 years ago, which was a very near miss for us, I followed the Storm2k forums very closely. There are some pro and semi pro meteorologists that post on there.
NHC relies a lot on model runs...UKMET, GFDL, etc. You are familiar with the "spaghetti plots" showing the path, but the models actually model the entire storm.
The NHC gives more weight to certain models based on historical accuracy. Last year, UKMET seemed to be the best, but as they tweak their algorithms, some get better and some get worse.
Sometimes in the "Discussion" section of the NHC updates a forecaster will actually talk about which models they favored and why they've chosen the track they have.
Historical data plays a part, but as forecasts get better and better, historical inaccuracy would overstate present day inaccuracy.
Long answer and not exactly a direct one, but I'll stand by my original statement....5 day cone is one of the narrowest I've seen and I'm pretty certain its because of strong model agreement.
If you want to learn more, Storm2k forum will have more than you could ever digest.
