Frank The Tank weighs in on conference realignment

[republion]

I know there are several threads on the realignment topic already, but FTT has always been a good read. Although he hasn’t posted anything since 2018, I’ve got a feeling this new chatter about realignment is going to have him updating his blog more frequently.

FRANK THE TANK'S SLANT

A Completely Logical College Sports Business Blog and Random Thoughts on Chicago, the Illini and the World

frankthetank.org

 

[NittPicker]

There's a blast from the past. His realignment thoughts were always interesting and logical. Not usually right though because realignment isn't usually logical.

 

[NedFromYork]

This seems to be going to two big conferences, each with divisions, where like the NFL there is a major network for each conference. For CFB, FOX is the major distributor of one and ABC the other, with CBS and NBC having some content. It looks like the two CFB conferences are going to be B1G, PAC12, some ACC northeast and midlantic schools. The other the SEC + Texas and Oklahoma and some southeastern ACC schools. Some of the remaining B12 schools sprinkled between each. That looks like a very possible "end game".

 

[Art]

This seems to be going to two big conferences, each with divisions, where like the NFL there is a major network for each conference. For CFB, FOX is the major distributor of one and ABC the other, with CBS and NBC having some content. It looks like the two CFB conferences are going to be B1G, PAC12, some ACC northeast and midlantic schools. The other the SEC + Texas and Oklahoma and some southeastern ACC schools. Some of the remaining B12 schools sprinkled between each. That looks like a very possible "end game".

CBS is out after 2023. Wouldn't be surprised to see NBC exit as well.

Will be interesting to see if Fox and ESPN continue their condominium arrangement with the PAC 12 and the detritus of the Big 12.

 

[WestSideLion]

This seems to be going to two big conferences, each with divisions, where like the NFL there is a major network for each conference. For CFB, FOX is the major distributor of one and ABC the other, with CBS and NBC having some content. It looks like the two CFB conferences are going to be B1G, PAC12, some ACC northeast and midlantic schools. The other the SEC + Texas and Oklahoma and some southeastern ACC schools. Some of the remaining B12 schools sprinkled between each. That looks like a very possible "end game".

Given the historic B1G and Pac12 lovefest, would there ever be a movement to combine into one effectively national conference?

 

[ChiTownLion]

 

[Midnighter2]

View embedded media

I posted this in your thread.


Post in thread 'Texas, Oklahoma reach out to SEC | Update: UT & OU announce departure'
https://bwi.forums.rivals.com/threa...-ut-ou-announce-departure.299521/post-5634277

 

[Nitwit]

Given the historic B1G and Pac12 lovefest, would there ever be a movement to combine into one effectively national

Given the historic B1G and Pac12 lovefest, would there ever be a movement to combine into one effectively national conference?

I can see it happening. Two 30 team conferences. But what’s the point? Once they get that big you never really play the other teams anyway. I guess you can play them in various divisional or league playoff games, but still. Will it matter to Penn State if WashingtonState is in their league? Of course it’s always about money, and the playoffs will draw a lot of TV revenue as there might be more layers of playoff games.

 

[Obliviax]

I can see it happening. Two 30 team conferences. But what’s the point? Once they get that big you never really play the other teams anyway. I guess you can play them in various divisional or league playoff games, but still. Will it matter to Penn State if WashingtonState is in their league? Of course it’s always about money, and the playoffs will draw a lot of TV revenue as there might be more layers of playoff games.

Lol. Why not just have one national conference with regional divisions?. We will really be right back were we Started except we’ll call them divisions instead of conferences and be rid of the NCAA

 

[McCloudersportLion]

Going into a big deal with the AAU schools in the Pac is meh- after USC and Oregon, WVU probably has a stronger brand than somenof those teams- west coast college fooseball support looks lookwarm these days. Keep texting ND- make those ladies feel special.

 

[razpsu]

Why wouldn’t you go after Clemson and say North Carolina and duke. Geographically better than pac and good athletic schools.

 

[BBrown]

CBS is out after 2023. Wouldn't be surprised to see NBC exit as well.

Will be interesting to see if Fox and ESPN continue their condominium arrangement with the PAC 12 and the detritus of the Big 12.

The only hope I have for the B1G is that Fox will keep things from falling apart. I don't trust Warren enough to pilot this ship.

 

[Op2]

Why wouldn’t you go after Clemson and say North Carolina and duke. Geographically better than pac and good athletic schools.

Duke is interesting. On one hand they have a great academic reputation and great basketball. OTOH they have bad football without a lot of fan support and plus the coach that made them great at basketball is on his way out the door and there's no guarantee they will continue being as good after he's gone.

 

[Midnighter2]

So, is ESPN behind all this? Seems so - Pete Thamel reporting they're pushing the ACC to raid the Big XII now. Any potential fallout for ESPN?

 

[RickinDayton]

I know there are several threads on the realignment topic already, but FTT has always been a good read. Although he hasn’t posted anything since 2018, I’ve got a feeling this new chatter about realignment is going to have him updating his blog more frequently.

FRANK THE TANK'S SLANT

A Completely Logical College Sports Business Blog and Random Thoughts on Chicago, the Illini and the World

frankthetank.org

I think B1G and Pac-12 will ink a deal for annual BIG/Pac-12 challenge in football and bball. So you could have USC vs PSU home & home in consecutive years, then PSU vs Oregon or Stanford, etc in home & home. That can be done with all the schools. The games would have to be played during times when viewership from both coasts could be high and not some crazy hours for either team (i.e., 11:00 PM eastern or 9:00 AM Pacific time). Doesn't take an actual merger, just an agreement and then negotiate that with FOX. Might even be able to include a few of the other sports like vball, soccer with one BIG vs Pac-12 home & home per year. You can still have the two highest rated football league teams not selected for any playoff to meet in the Rose Bowl. Seems like a good counter to what SEC has done. Comments, criticism and tweaks welcome.

 

[Midnighter2]

I think B1G and Pac-12 will ink a deal for annual BIG/Pac-12 challenge in football and bball. So you could have USC vs PSU home & home in consecutive years, then PSU vs Oregon or Stanford, etc in home & home. That can be done with all the schools. The games would have to be played during times when viewership from both coasts could be high and not some crazy hours for either team (i.e., 11:00 PM eastern or 9:00 AM Pacific time). Doesn't take an actual merger, just an agreement and then negotiate that with FOX. Might even be able to include a few of the other sports like vball, soccer with one BIG vs Pac-12 home & home per year. You can still have the two highest rated football league teams not selected for any playoff to meet in the Rose Bowl. Seems like a good counter to what SEC has done. Comments, criticism and tweaks welcome.

I like this idea; the B1G and Pac 12 - for better or worse - mostly have robust athletics programs and match up well together (unlike the power schools in the SEC who sometimes field fewer than 20 teams; Bama for example has 15 sports, and two of them - golf and tennis - have both men's and women's teams and are counted separately). I'd like to see a bigger, comprehensive agreement to play a couple Pac 12 teams a year and stop throwing bones to the likes of ND. Would make for some great road trips and fun games IMO. I love the late Pac 12 games on Saturday nights and seeing USC/PSU or PSU/UCLA would be a lot of fun.

 

[Cpeplion]

Why wouldn’t you go after Clemson and say North Carolina and duke. Geographically better than pac and good athletic schools.

Because of the Los Angeles market for the BTN.

 

[Art]

The only hope I have for the B1G is that Fox will keep things from falling apart. I don't trust Warren enough to pilot this ship.

Depends on what ESPN does. They currently own media rights for parts of the PAC-12, Big 12, and B1G. Fox owns the other parts. If ESPN decides to abandon one or more conferences or not bid aggressively on renewing contracts soemeone is going to be left on the short end of the stick. I expect it to happen to one or more conferences not named SEC

 

[Art]

Because of the Los Angeles market for the BTN.

Yup, cable companies are going to be lining up to show third-tier games at 9 and 10 am.

LA DMA is 5.3mm households. BTN is already available in the market. Not all households are hooked up to cable. Incremental revenue would be good, but more needed to justify an addition of an LA team.

 

[NittPicker]

I think B1G and Pac-12 will ink a deal for annual BIG/Pac-12 challenge in football and bball. So you could have USC vs PSU home & home in consecutive years, then PSU vs Oregon or Stanford, etc in home & home. That can be done with all the schools. The games would have to be played during times when viewership from both coasts could be high and not some crazy hours for either team (i.e., 11:00 PM eastern or 9:00 AM Pacific time). Doesn't take an actual merger, just an agreement and then negotiate that with FOX. Might even be able to include a few of the other sports like vball, soccer with one BIG vs Pac-12 home & home per year. You can still have the two highest rated football league teams not selected for any playoff to meet in the Rose Bowl. Seems like a good counter to what SEC has done. Comments, criticism and tweaks welcome.

I like the basic idea too but there would be some things to work out. For example, 14 teams vs. 12 teams. Who in the B1G would have to sit out? Maybe the divisional last place teams from the prior season but that would make future OOC scheduling uncertain. Also, a B1G/PAC arrangement would account for 10 games on the schedule. The Penn State AD would need to settle for six home games most seasons instead of seven unless they want to bring in two MAC teams every year.

Also, I'd move back to eight conference games and then allow for two interconference. That way all B1G teams can participate even if some will only play once interconference.

 

[psu_et_vt]

Yup, cable companies are going to be lining up to show third-tier games at 9 and 10 am.

LA DMA is 5.3mm households. BTN is already available in the market. Not all households are hooked up to cable. Incremental revenue would be good, but more needed to justify an addition of an LA team.

This is not just LA, it’s SF, Portland, Seattle. The wealthiest cities in the US. Only a dumass would schedule those games earlier than 3pm Eastern btw

 

[LongJakk]

I still think the end game is "P5" football splits to its own separate entity and ncaa and traditional leagues handling midmajor football all other sports.

 

[Cpeplion]

This is not just LA, it’s SF, Portland, Seattle. The wealthiest cities in the US. Only a dumass would schedule those games earlier than 3pm Eastern btw

Plus how it works is that if the BTN has a team in that market they can get the network on ALL the basic packages and charge every customer for the network no matter if the want it or not. Same reason Rutgers and MD got added…it allowed the BTN to be on the NYC and DC markets if they wanted the channel or nor

 

[Art]

Plus how it works is that if the BTN has a team in that market they can get the network on ALL the basic packages and charge every customer for the network no matter if the want it or not. Same reason Rutgers and MD got added…it allowed the BTN to be on the NYC and DC markets if they wanted the channel or nor

At $0.35 or less per subscriber per month, half of which belongs to Fox.

 

[NittPicker]

Plus how it works is that if the BTN has a team in that market they can get the network on ALL the basic packages and charge every customer for the network no matter if the want it or not. Same reason Rutgers and MD got added…it allowed the BTN to be on the NYC and DC markets if they wanted the channel or nor

Contrary to popular belief, the BTN (or any other network) isn't required to be carried by any service provider nor are they guaranteed any given carriage fee.

 

[psu00]

I’m not sure how much any PAC 12- Big Ten crossover games would really help in the big picture. Basically PSU would lose the Auburn/ WVU type games and add Washington or UCLA. I’m not sure it really adds much to the overall value of the big ten product to try to keep up with the SEC.

 

[Art]

Contrary to popular belief, the BTN (or any other network) isn't required to be carried by any service provider nor are they guaranteed any given carriage fee.

Given that the various versions of Pac-12 Net that are in their death throes, I don't see West Coast cable operators clamoring for BTN.

 

[Art]

I’m not sure how much any PAC 12- Big Ten crossover games would really help in the big picture. Basically PSU would lose the Auburn/ WVU type games and add Washington or UCLA. I’m not sure it really adds much to the overall value of the big ten product to try to keep up with the SEC.

I'm also not sure how much it helps sell TV rights. It's one thing when the product is an entire league which a buyer can expect to hew to some sort of performance norm. And with the UDubs and USCs, the league is also signing up for a group of stinkers.

 

[psu_et_vt]

I’m not sure how much any PAC 12- Big Ten crossover games would really help in the big picture. Basically PSU would lose the Auburn/ WVU type games and add Washington or UCLA. I’m not sure it really adds much to the overall value of the big ten product to try to keep up with the SEC.

Right now we have Auburn and in 2 years we have WVU. After that we got nothing for a while and before that we had Pitt. I think the whole league playing a Pac 12 opponent each year will generate more interest than Temple or even WVU. This just seems like a good relationship for the conference to have when it’s time to negotiate the next contracts. The only conference with enough football blue bloods to counter the new SEC is B1G+Pac12

 

[psu_et_vt]

Right now we have Auburn and in 2 years we have WVU. After that we got nothing for a while and before that we had Pitt. I think the whole league playing a Pac 12 opponent each year will generate more interest than Temple or even WVU. This just seems like a good relationship for the conference to have when it’s time to negotiate the next contracts. The only conference with enough football blue bloods to counter the new SEC is B1G+Pac12

Also note that everyone sees the top of CFB splitting from NCAA. A good relationship with Pac12 could be part of what’s next. If SEC wants to go it alone the B1G+Pac12 might have negotiation power together

 

[psu_et_vt]

I'm also not sure how much it helps sell TV rights. It's one thing when the product is an entire league which a buyer can expect to hew to some sort of performance norm. And with the UDubs and USCs, the league is also signing up for a group of stinkers.

Are their stinkers worse than Rutgers and Maryland or Illinois?

 

[PSU_Chicago]

"Don't let them ruin what we have in college football" Joe Paterno, HOF Induction.

 

[NedFromYork]

I really am warming to the idea of a B1G-PAC12 and B1G-ACC challenges in football. Yes, that would take up two non-confeerence games a year but with a 12-team playoff that should be okay with the tougher schedule for some. The other can be a cupcake or go back to 8 conference games. The rights for each challenge can be bid separately from the rest of the non-conferenece and conference season. While the added revenue wouldn't match the new SEC, the margin % should be much higher. A lot of intriguing cross region games, with the challenge tracking addition iona interest level.

I'd like the B1G to be able to pull a Colorado for the West and a UVA or UNC for the East if at all possible.

 

[RGWhirly]

I really am warming to the idea of a B1G-PAC12 and B1G-ACC challenges in football. Yes, that would take up two non-confeerence games a year but with a 12-team playoff that should be okay with the tougher schedule for some. The other can be a cupcake or go back to 8 conference games. The rights for each challenge can be bid separately from the rest of the non-conferenece and conference season. While the added revenue wouldn't match the new SEC, the margin % should be much higher. A lot of intriguing cross region games, with the challenge tracking addition iona interest level.

I'd like the B1G to be able to pull a Colorado for the West and a UVA or UNC for the East if at all possible.

Concur with idea of trying to schedule a PAC team and ACC team every season as OOC.

 

[Art]

Are their stinkers worse than Rutgers and Maryland or Illinois?

No, but adding games with the bottom of the PAC 12 isn't an improvement. And if the scheduling dictates bottom against bottom, which network wants to buy into that?

 

[psu_et_vt]

No, but adding games with the bottom of the PAC 12 isn't an improvement. And if the scheduling dictates bottom against bottom, which network wants to buy into that?

It'll have to be hyped properly. But O$U vs. USC, PSU vs. Oregon, Wisky vs. UW... that can be packaged with a bunch of other games. A great Labor Day weekend package I would think. It's gotta be worth something

 

[Art]

It'll have to be hyped properly. But O$U vs. USC, PSU vs. Oregon, Wisky vs. UW... that can be packaged with a bunch of other games. A great Labor Day weekend package I would think. It's gotta be worth something

And the Big Ten schools also give up something: the return trip to the Coast (scratch one home gate) and the flexibility to schedule other out-of-conference games.

 

[WestSideLion]

I haven’t read every post in detail, but is anyone discussing the SEC moving to a closed model scenario?

Could they expand to 20 (or more) teams and then only play each other? They could then do some playoff format and crown their own league champion.

It sounds like a stretch today, but it feels like with another nudge, the Super Conference concept could happen in the next few years. The dominoes are setting up and I’m not sure public outcry would be enough to stop this like the Euro Super League in soccer.

 

[Player2BNamedL8r]

More expansion talk?? I thought this thread was going to be about this guy…

 

[NittPicker]

I haven’t read every post in detail, but is anyone discussing the SEC moving to a closed model scenario?

Could they expand to 20 (or more) teams and then only play each other? They could then do some playoff format and crown their own league champion.

It sounds like a stretch today, but it feels like with another nudge, the Super Conference concept could happen in the next few years. The dominoes are setting up and I’m not sure public outcry would be enough to stop this like the Euro Super League in soccer.

I saw the linked article about Texas while reading the WVU board. Regarding a 20 or so team breakaway, the below outtake captures my thoughts exactly.

This is probably all part of a plan to eventually get a smaller field to a champions league in college football. Maybe it’s not immediately, but sometime, the top 12 or 16 or 24 schools will band together thinking, “We’ll get more money just playing ourselves.” Then eventually they’ll realize that not quite as many people care about watching college football as they once did.

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