Defense to offense
- Thread starter bdgan
- Start date
While technically you are correct (i.e. if we scored at least a total of 2 points last year, this year's production "could be worse"), given the changes between last year and this year, it's hard to reasonably imagine HOW the offensive production could be worse this year. I think that is what Madsol is saying.
Kent 90%
@ Pitt 50%
Temple 90%
@Mich 10%
Minny 80%
Maryland 70%
Ohio State 25%
@ Purdue 80%
Iowa 60%
@ Indiana 70%
@ Rutgers 70%
Michigan State 40%
Fair enough. I think I'm more bullish than most of us about PSU this year. We will see. One thing I know for absolute certain though is, I'm more excited about this season then I have been about any since 1999. Can't believe it's less than two weeks at this point!
Just to be clear:
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The very first post I made on the subject said:
"FWIW, I agree with you that the PSU offense will likely take a step forward this year (I think that would be your contention....mea culpa if I misinterpreted).
But.....as regarding "I cannot fathom" if getting worse....."
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The second post said:
"FWIW, I think the 2016 offense will likely be better....at least I am cautiously optimistic that it will.
But that was not the topic I was addressing (that it could "hardly be worse than 2015"....because the evidence clearly shows that it very well could)"
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The third post said:
"Again, none of that means PSU will be better or worse on offense in 2016.....that wasn't the point
What it does show - and what WAS the point - is that PSU's 2015 offensive productivity was essentially "average" for PSU offenses over the last 13 years"
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So, maybe
, you can see why one would be so flabbergasted when you respond to those posts with:"This is what I meant by you know what they say about stats. What in the world do the stats from prior PSU teams have ANYTHING to do with predicting what the 2016 offense might do?
LOL
Let's say we split with Pitt & Iowa and lost to OSU & UM. That's 8-3 going into the MSU game. That would be the most likely upset win. The most likely upset loss would be Indiana on the road.
I just don't think we split Pitt and Iowa. I think we win those two. BUT, I do expect us to drop a game that we should win somewhere, so in the end I for the most part agree with you.
And while I think it's more likely that we lose to OSU and UM than not, I'm not chalking either one up as a loss. We took OSU to multiple overtimes (and frankly, we beat them) two years ago when the gap between us was much larger than it is this year.
Also, for some reason that I just can't explain, I have just have a feeling we're going to surprise UM in their house.
i honestly think that this is the best that can be expected for 2016. if we exceed that, it will have been a GREAT season.
Iowa is an interesting case study. They had a really easy schedule last year. their signature wins were NW and Wiscy. Pitt was a last second field goal win. They then played Sparty surprisingly tight in the B1G title game and then were totally overwhelmed by Stanford in the Rose Bowl. They get a lot, most of actually, of their players back.
I suspect that they snuck up on some people last year and had a very easy schedule. I don't think that is the case in 2016. They will be a good team, but they are not in the UM/tOSU class. Regardless, I see Pitt and Iowa being the inflection points for PSU football in 2016.
bwifan
Well-Known Member
I am becoming more and more convinced that Rhule is the real deal. I think he has that 'it' factor in being a great leader and players love playing for him. I am hoping like anything we beat Temple this year but that game does concern me a little bit. Being the week after sPitt, glad it's at home this year. But I believe will be a very tough game.
Agree...but one difference is that I am not sure PSU will ever huddle on offense. JoeMo has stated that huddles are "a waste of time". but to La Jolla's point, they may well go up to the LOS and chillax until there are only five seconds on the play clock. Other times they may quick snap. the reason why is that the D cannot substitute unless the O changes personnel or huddles.
This is fun, let's put it another way...
Chances of final reg-season record:
0-12: 0%
1-11: 0%
2-10: 0%
3-9: 0%
4-8: 0%
5-7: 0%
6-6: 5%
7-5: 10%
8-4: 25%
9-3: 30%
10-2: 20%
11-1: 9%
12-0: 1%
Went outside for a bit at lunch. Really feels like football weather today. Hope it's like this in two weeks.
Temple was an anomaly last year; a perfect storm.
- our offensive line was totally inept. PP was simply NOT ready.
- in addition, our center simply could not adjust to the delayed blitz. T's MLB became an all-american in that game with three or four sacks and several more hurries.
- T got a sack when rushing two defenders. I've never seen that before.
- Nelson got hurt, IIRC
- On defense, we lost our key MLB and we couldn't stop the run the rest of the game (or short passing game)
- The mass confusion contributed to a total breakdown and loss of poise by the entire team.
- 2015 was the bottom of our days from sanctions and lack of depth
Nothing taken away from Temple, but I see a different PSU team (and Temple lost a lot to graduation).
bwifan
Well-Known Member
I am with you Obli.... Just saying Rhule is a pretty good coach and I am expecting this game to be closer than I thought it was going to be originally.
Absolutely. The match-up with Temple is SOOOOOOOOO different this year than it was last year, there are literally zero comparisons.
- Wartman & Bell were injured during that game. Hoefully not this time.
- IIRC Temple lost several of their top defenders.
- This time the game is at home.
bwifan
Well-Known Member
TU returns 7 starters on both sides of the ball. Rhule is a good coach and will have them ready. They lost some key starters who were really the glue of that team. Question is anyone going to step into those shoes. I think PSU wins the game and should, but it will be closer than some think.
its also a bit of a "trap game" in that it is after Pitt. Pitt could be an emotional flash point or a real dampening. Now, since we lost to Temple last year, they shouldn't sneak up on us. But after what will be a very emotional game at Heinz, who knows?
I think Temple is the bigger game for people on the team. The kids from western PA sure are looking forward to Pitt but everyone who was a part of the team last year knows they were embarrassed by Temple. I don't think Franklin will have any trouble getting this team up for Temple.
bwifan
Well-Known Member
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