I've been through this multiple times on this board, but will give it one more try. The models are not giving a "prediction". They are providing a range of possible scenarios (deaths in this case) and a mean value. The range is typically mean +/- 1 standard deviation (not sure if it is exactly 1 SD in this case). The "mean" should not be confused with a "prediction".In early April at one point, IMHE were predicting around 760 deaths in the state as a total. It’s only June 11 and they were off by more than an order of magnitude. Most people would reasonably conclude there was and probably is something wrong with the model.
Furthermore, the models are constantly adapting based on real time data. Due to the great number of unknowns and variables involved with a new virus, the range of possibilities is understandably large.