Bowl guru Jerry Palm projects Penn State to finish 10-2 and play Oklahoma in Peach

[Jerry]

Yes, that and $3.50 will get you a cup of regular coffee at Starbucks, but bowl-projection season is always fun nevertheless.

If Palm is right, it means another NY6 bid. Granted, a lot of people had set their sights even higher than that, but it would still be a nice accomplishment for Franklin and this team.

Anyway, Palm has Georgia, Michigan, Florida State, and Texas (in that order) going to the playoffs.

It'd be sweet to shock the world on November 11 -- it could happen -- and send him back to the drawing board:

2023 College Football Bowl Predictions - NCAA Bowl Game Projections

CBS Sports bowl expert Jerry Palm picks the teams he feels will comprise the National Semi-final at the end of the season along with bowl projections for every single game.

www.cbssports.com

 

[bcspsu]

Yes, that and $3.50 will get you a cup of regular coffee at Starbucks, but bowl-projection season is always fun nevertheless.

If Palm is right, it means another NY6 bid. Granted, a lot of people had set their sights even higher than that, but it would still be a nice accomplishment for Franklin and this team.

Anyway, Palm has Georgia, Michigan, Florida State, and Texas (in that order) going to the playoffs.

It'd be sweet to shock the world on November 11 -- it could happen -- and send him back to the drawing board:

2023 College Football Bowl Predictions - NCAA Bowl Game Projections

CBS Sports bowl expert Jerry Palm picks the teams he feels will comprise the National Semi-final at the end of the season along with bowl projections for every single game.

www.cbssports.com

This is the bowl to which PSU has been projected even going back to September; in September, the opponent mentioned was Bama.

At this point, I guess that I'd take that, although that basically means that we would've lost to Michigan, and I previously said that this season would be a failure if we lost both to OSU and Michigan again.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

i am looking forward to usc, oregon and washington joining the league. thats going to mark the end of psu coaches being able to coast to 2-losses and a big bowl in underachieving seasons, which has largely been possible ever since joining the B1G

 

[ram2020]

i am looking forward to usc, oregon and washington joining the league. thats going to mark the end of psu coaches being able to coast to 2-losses and a big bowl in underachieving seasons, which has largely been possible ever since joining the B1G

Great point. Scheduling weak out of conference opponents coupled with the total ineptitude of teams like Maryland, Rugers...anyone in the west, has basically guaranteed 9-10 wins, which is precisely what Franklin hangs his hat on when outsiders judge his program...."look at the full body of work."

 

[fairfaxlion2]

Great point. Scheduling weak out of conference opponents coupled with the total ineptitude of teams like Maryland, Rugers...anyone in the west, has basically guaranteed 9-10 wins, which is precisely what Franklin hangs his hat on when outsiders judge his program...."look at the full body of work."

in fairness to Franklin, it wasn't just him. PSU has been doing this since at least 1993 and Paterno had his share of disappointing years with good records too

 

[ram2020]

in fairness to Franklin, it wasn't just him. PSU has been doing this since at least 1993 and Paterno had his share of disappointing years with good records too

Agreed. This isn't unique to Franklin or even penn state.

 

[Texas Lion]

Make it fun then and play Oklahoma in The Cotton Bowl!!!

 

[Obliviax]

Agreed. This isn't unique to Franklin or even penn state.

Yep...not many teams have consistently contended: Alabama, GA, tOSU. Who else?

 

[ram2020]

Yep...not many teams have consistently contended: Alabama, GA, tOSU. Who else?

Yep...not many teams have consistently contended: Alabama, GA, tOSU. Who else?

The qualifier is "consistently." Not many, I know the rose is off the bloom a bit, but I'd kill for Clemson's 2 NC's. Teams do pop up from time to time, Washington/Michigan/TCU have all played in the big show. Oklahoma been there 4 times. LSU, Oregon, Florida State, ,Notre Dame.....MSU go once? I know it's been an impossible hurdle for us and most other programs, but a little stunning we haven't gotten there in Franklin's tenure no?

 

[Obliviax]

The qualifier is "consistently." Not many, I know the rose is off the bloom a bit, but I'd kill for Clemson's 2 NC's. Teams do pop up from time to time, Washington/Michigan/TCU have all played in the big show. Oklahoma been there 4 times. I know it's been an impossible hurdle for us and most other programs, but a little stunning we haven't gotten there in Franklin's tenure no?

Agreed. Clemson is the other one but is not playing great now.

PSU has missed a lot of chances and gave up big leads late in key games. USC and tOSU come to mind. Personally, we haven't had the horses. Our best chance may have been McSorley's senior year if Saquon had come back. But most of CJF's tenure has been spent rebuilding after the JS years. That had quite an impact on the program. First, nobody wanted to come here in the wake of that mess. Then, by the time we recovered directly, we weren't a winning program in the minds of 17-year-old boys. The last step is the hardest and why the tOSU game was so hard to swallow. We still aren't there and I don't think we will be next year either.

 

[ram2020]

Agreed. Clemson is the other one but is not playing great now.

PSU has missed a lot of chances and gave up big leads late in key games. USC and tOSU come to mind. Personally, we haven't had the horses. Our best chance may have been McSorley's senior year if Saquon had come back. But most of CJF's tenure has been spent rebuilding after the JS years. That had quite an impact on the program. First, nobody wanted to come here in the wake of that mess. Then, by the time we recovered directly, we weren't a winning program in the minds of 17-year-old boys. The last step is the hardest and why the tOSU game was so hard to swallow. We still aren't there and I don't think we will be next year either.

No, and as I've seen it then(usc and osu in '17) we especially haven't had the depth and talent on the Oline. It appears to be a total blind spot to Franklin as we don't seem the be getting much better there. We simply could not put games away because we couldn't block for a critical 3rd and 1 or 2. Like at OSU last week, we still can't

 

[blair10]

Yes, that and $3.50 will get you a cup of regular coffee at Starbucks, but bowl-projection season is always fun nevertheless.

If Palm is right, it means another NY6 bid. Granted, a lot of people had set their sights even higher than that, but it would still be a nice accomplishment for Franklin and this team.

Anyway, Palm has Georgia, Michigan, Florida State, and Texas (in that order) going to the playoffs.

It'd be sweet to shock the world on November 11 -- it could happen -- and send him back to the drawing board:

2023 College Football Bowl Predictions - NCAA Bowl Game Projections

CBS Sports bowl expert Jerry Palm picks the teams he feels will comprise the National Semi-final at the end of the season along with bowl projections for every single game.

www.cbssports.com

If that scenario plays out, it would mean:

- Penn State would finish in 3rd place in B1G east division again.

- No appearance in the B1G championship game again.

- Appearing in another irrelevant bowl (not part of the CFP) again.

- Penn State would finish 0-2 in games against Ohio State and Michigan for the 3rd consecutive year.

- Coach Franklin’s record against Ohio State and Michigan would be 4-16 (losing 80% of these games).

How on earth do you consider this an accomplishment?

 

[LandoComando]

If that scenario plays out, it would mean:

- Penn State would finish in 3rd place in B1G east division again.

- No appearance in the B1G championship game again.

- Appearing in another irrelevant bowl (not part of the CFP) again.

- Penn State would finish 0-2 in games against Ohio State and Michigan for the 3rd consecutive year.

- Coach Franklin’s record against Ohio State and Michigan would be 4-16 (losing 80% of these games).

How on earth do you consider this an accomplishment?

Low expectations

 

[Crusher1950]

This is really shocking 10 and 2 and losing to Michigan and OSU where did we hear this before

 

[Texas Lion]

Some of y’all act like before Franklin Penn state was a national title contender in a yearly basis. 2000-2010 I think they had 2 maybe 3 good years. People would kill for what Franklin does at Penn state

 

[fairfaxlion2]

Some of y’all act like before Franklin Penn state was a national title contender in a yearly basis. 2000-2010 I think they had 2 maybe 3 good years. People would kill for what Franklin does at Penn state

this is my biggest problem with most posters on here, they act like the program was not a train wreck at the turn of the century. they just say, "2005", "2008" ingoring that the program was mostly terrible during the rest of that decade, and that is all pre sanctions. it got even more challenging after that. franklin restored the program to basically its 1990s level and that is no small feat

 

[LandoComando]

Some of y’all act like before Franklin Penn state was a national title contender in a yearly basis. 2000-2010 I think they had 2 maybe 3 good years. People would kill for what Franklin does at Penn state

I think the point isn't that we're focused on what we were. It's about getting to the next level. Georgia has set that bar when they went from Richt to Smart. What Franklin has done has been great--how he has to figure out how to get us to the next level or we have to find another coach. That's the way things work when you have a stadium that seats over 100k and you're not a mid-level program. There's no reason we shouldn't be in the playoff the majority of the time when it expands to 12 and there's going to be a lot of schools (Georgia, Alabama, Florida, LSU, A&M, FSU, Clemson, Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Washington, Oregon, Texas, Notre Dame and Oklahoma) that are going to feel that way.

 

[ryoder1]

This is the bowl to which PSU has been projected even going back to September; in September, the opponent mentioned was Bama.

At this point, I guess that I'd take that, although that basically means that we would've lost to Michigan, and I previously said that this season would be a failure if we lost both to OSU and Michigan again.

An interesting bowl game and hope we win but the season is a failure even with a NY6 win as this assumes a Michigan loss.

 

[ryoder1]

this is my biggest problem with most posters on here, they act like the program was not a train wreck at the turn of the century. they just say, "2005", "2008" ingoring that the program was mostly terrible during the rest of that decade, and that is all pre sanctions. it got even more challenging after that. franklin restored the program to basically its 1990s level and that is no small feat

Well I for one think he is failing this year unless he beats Michigan and finishes 11-1. We don't have to make the 4 team playoff but show we can beat Michigan.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

Well I for one think he is failing this year unless he beats Michigan and finishes 11-1. We don't have to make the 4 team playoff but show we can beat Michigan.

he still has a chance of doing that. not really a good chance but it can happen.

 

[MacNit2.0]

Some of y’all act like before Franklin Penn state was a national title contender in a yearly basis. 2000-2010 I think they had 2 maybe 3 good years. People would kill for what Franklin does at Penn state

Anyone beating our doors down? What about the NFL?

 

[jferretti]

this is my biggest problem with most posters on here, they act like the program was not a train wreck at the turn of the century. they just say, "2005", "2008" ingoring that the program was mostly terrible during the rest of that decade, and that is all pre sanctions. it got even more challenging after that. franklin restored the program to basically its 1990s level and that is no small feat

These are fair points. I think our disappointment arises from the very rare instances where the team plays beyond expectations and talent level and surprises us. That doesn't seem to happen. It's more often a team that disappoints given its talent level and opponent.

Being 3rd in the conference year in and year out wears on the fanbase. Combined with Franklin's very public pronouncements about what he needs to compete (which he consistently gets) has prompted many to ask, when is it going to happen?

 

[Jerry]

If that scenario plays out, it would mean:

- Penn State would finish in 3rd place in B1G east division again.

- No appearance in the B1G championship game again.

- Appearing in another irrelevant bowl (not part of the CFP) again.

- Penn State would finish 0-2 in games against Ohio State and Michigan for the 3rd consecutive year.

- Coach Franklin’s record against Ohio State and Michigan would be 4-16 (losing 80% of these games).

How on earth do you consider this an accomplishment?

Well the concept of "accomplishment" is relative.

Double-digit wins. Top-10 ranking. NY6 bid. A lot of people would consider that an accomplishment. I do.

I felt coming into this season that we were one year away. I also felt the idea of beating both Ohio State and Michigan was pie in the sky. I was hoping for one W against those teams. I still am.

I think the key is Drew Allar. Some were nominating him for a Heisman before he'd even started one game. Totally unfair to the guy.

My nightmare scenario is Drew regressing a la Hack. Way too early to say that's happening but gosh, there've been some red flags. The kid needs some help...some players to step up...maybe some new schemes on O.

 

[Jerry]

I think the point isn't that we're focused on what we were. It's about getting to the next level. Georgia has set that bar when they went from Richt to Smart. What Franklin has done has been great--how he has to figure out how to get us to the next level or we have to find another coach. That's the way things work when you have a stadium that seats over 100k and you're not a mid-level program. There's no reason we shouldn't be in the playoff the majority of the time when it expands to 12 and there's going to be a lot of schools (Georgia, Alabama, Florida, LSU, A&M, FSU, Clemson, Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Washington, Oregon, Texas, Notre Dame and Oklahoma) that are going to feel that way.

We would have made a 12-team playoff several times in Franklin's tenure, which Is pretty impressive considering he took over a program still crippled by sanctions.

 

[Jerry]

These are fair points. I think our disappointment arises from the very rare instances where the team plays beyond expectations and talent level and surprises us. That doesn't seem to happen. It's more often a team that disappoints given its talent level and opponent.

Being 3rd in the conference year in and year out wears on the fanbase. Combined with Franklin's very public pronouncements about what he needs to compete (which he consistently gets) has prompted many to ask, when is it going to happen?

I think you put that well.

Those 4th-quarter collapses against Ohio State were back-breakers.

 

[LandoComando]

We would have made a 12-team playoff several times in Franklin's tenure, which Is pretty impressive considering he took over a program still crippled by sanctions.

It's not and the impact of the sanctions is overvalued
With Washington Oregon and USC joining the Big Ten he's going to have to start beating good teams from time to time to make the playoff. Do you have faith he can? If so, why?

 

[mcpat]

Great point. Scheduling weak out of conference opponents coupled with the total ineptitude of teams like Maryland, Rugers...anyone in the west, has basically guaranteed 9-10 wins, which is precisely what Franklin hangs his hat on when outsiders judge his program...."look at the full body of work."

Rugers might come out firing next year. They’re straight shooters.

 

[mcpat]

Well the concept of "accomplishment" is relative.

Double-digit wins. Top-10 ranking. NY6 bid. A lot of people would consider that an accomplishment. I do.

I felt coming into this season that we were one year away. I also felt the idea of beating both Ohio State and Michigan was pie in the sky. I was hoping for one W against those teams. I still am.

I think the key is Drew Allar. Some were nominating him for a Heisman before he'd even started one game. Totally unfair to the guy.

My nightmare scenario is Drew regressing a la Hack. Way too early to say that's happening but gosh, there've been some red flags. The kid needs some help...some players to step up...maybe some new schemes on O.

I like next year’s home/away schedule.

 

[bono47]

in fairness to Franklin, it wasn't just him. PSU has been doing this since at least 1993 and Paterno had his share of disappointing years with good records too

Everyone has been doing this since the 1990s. Look at Alabama, Michigan, Washington, etc. Their OOC schedules are basically the same. 1 P5 in a home and home and the rest creampuffs. 2 or 3 hard conference games. The piling on of PSU's schedule is ridiculous. Every blue blood has the same pattern......beat 2 or 3 rivals and you are elite. Fail, and you are 10-2 or 9-3 and in a NY bowl.

 

[Obliviax]

this is my biggest problem with most posters on here, they act like the program was not a train wreck at the turn of the century. they just say, "2005", "2008" ingoring that the program was mostly terrible during the rest of that decade, and that is all pre sanctions. it got even more challenging after that. franklin restored the program to basically its 1990s level and that is no small feat

..and not sure how the worst scandal, real or perceived, in college history, didn't set the program back several decades. I can't imagine the Lasch Building recruiting tours when they went through the locker rooms and showers. I am sure the tour guide didn't ask "So are there any questions?"

 

[mcpat]

Everyone has been doing this since the 1990s. Look at Alabama, Michigan, Washington, etc. Their OOC schedules are basically the same. 1 P5 in a home and home and the rest creampuffs. 2 or 3 hard conference games. The piling on of PSU's schedule is ridiculous. Every blue blood has the same pattern......beat 2 or 3 rivals and you are elite. Fail, and you are 10-2 or 9-3 and in a NY bowl.

While I don’t disagree, 11-1 with this year’s schedule and without a Big Ten Championship won’t get the 4th playoff spot. Ohio St, on the other hand, with its road win over Notre Dame, could grab that 4th spot at 11-1 and without a conference championship. Scheduling a good OOC opponent won’t mean as much going forward with the tougher Big 10.

 

[ram2020]

Rugers might come out firing next year. They’re straight shooters.

Hahahha! My bad, ruTgers

 

[WaffleShopper]

I've seen people mention the 12-team playoff and how making that most years will be considered a success. However, if/when we make those future playoffs at 10-2 we will be playing a top 10 team, and Franklin is 3-16 against top 10 teams. In other words, we would typically be one and done and rarely even make the quarterfinal round.

Even if we make the new playoffs most years, the Franklin complaints are not going to go away.

 

[bcspsu]

I've seen people mention the 12-team playoff and how making that most years will be considered a success. However, if/when we make those future playoffs at 10-2 we will be playing a top 10 team, and Franklin is 3-16 against top 10 teams. In other words, we would typically be one and done and rarely even make the quarterfinal round.

Even if we make the new playoffs most years, the Franklin complaints are not going to go away.

Well, then we'll be in the same boat as about 8 other teams that make the playoffs. Obviously, Franklin's record against OSU and Michigan should be and needs to be better. However, I wonder what the records of schools like OSU and Michigan are when they play top 10 teams since Franklin took over. My guess is that Michigan is well below .500 and OSU probably is barely .500.

Unless you're a super power like LSU in 2020 or UGA in the past two seasons, you're probably going to lose more games than you win when you play top 10 teams, and especially top 5 teams.

 

[heckmans]

i am looking forward to usc, oregon and washington joining the league. thats going to mark the end of psu coaches being able to coast to 2-losses and a big bowl in underachieving seasons, which has largely been possible ever since joining the B1G

Now they can coast to an average of 2.5 losses since they will play 2 or 3 of the Big2 + PAC teams

Big Ten Conference Announces Future Football Schedule Formats for 2024-28

The Big Ten Conference today announced league football opponents for the 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028 football seasons

bigten.org

 

[KCLion]

I've seen people mention the 12-team playoff and how making that most years will be considered a success. However, if/when we make those future playoffs at 10-2 we will be playing a top 10 team, and Franklin is 3-16 against top 10 teams. In other words, we would typically be one and done and rarely even make the quarterfinal round.

Even if we make the new playoffs most years, the Franklin complaints are not going to go away.

That game would be on the road as well.

 

[Jerry]

It's not and the impact of the sanctions is overvalued
With Washington Oregon and USC joining the Big Ten he's going to have to start beating good teams from time to time to make the playoff. Do you have faith he can? If so, why?

Lando, your claim that the sanctions are "overvalued" is right on par with your constant refrain that every one of our wins is "overvalued." I detect a pattern.

In fact, the outrageous sanctions were severe in the extreme and intended to cripple the program for years. Hell, a couple unnamed NCAA officials were quoted at the time as gleefully predicting that the effect would be almost akin to the death penalty: not survivable.

It's incredible that Penn State not only survived but actually stayed competitive while playing shorthanded and after a lot of guys had bailed.

As for "faith," no, I wouldn't characterize my attitude that way. More like: cautious hope.

 

[ryoder1]

These are fair points. I think our disappointment arises from the very rare instances where the team plays beyond expectations and talent level and surprises us. That doesn't seem to happen. It's more often a team that disappoints given its talent level and opponent.

Being 3rd in the conference year in and year out wears on the fanbase. Combined with Franklin's very public pronouncements about what he needs to compete (which he consistently gets) has prompted many to ask, when is it going to happen?

Franklin has had time to build the program post sanctions. Joe built and sustained a great program through the mid late 90s. He got old, OSU got Tressel, we have a terrible scandal, OSU gets Urban and what do you know we have lost to them 16 out of 20 years.

There are no more excuses. He essentially never wins a game where he is an underdog. In fact besides the 2016 OSU game I don't think he ever has. And this is not like we are Indiana and 25 point underdogs. The point spreads are close yet he never can get it done in winnable games. Bad movie plays every season.

 

[Obliviax]

Lando, your claim that the sanctions are "overvalued" is right on par with your constant refrain that every one of our wins is "overvalued." I detect a pattern.

In fact, the outrageous sanctions were severe in the extreme and intended to cripple the program for years. Hell, a couple unnamed NCAA officials were quoted at the time as gleefully predicting that the effect would be almost akin to the death penalty: not survivable.

It's incredible that Penn State not only survived but actually stayed competitive while playing shorthanded and after a lot of guys had bailed.

As for "faith," no, I wouldn't characterize my attitude that way. More like: cautious hope.

Agreed. I think the sanctions have been "undervalued". There is a direct correlation to bowl games, money, and 'ships. There is a ton of secondary damage in brand and reputation. As I stated, can you imagine giving a recruit a tour of the Lasch Building anytime from 2011 to 2020? "and looking to your left, this is the location of the famous shower room where Jerry Sandusky was seen molesting a child by an assistant coach who didn't come to the child's rescue or report it for a day."

 

[Texas Lion]

Anyone beating our doors down? What about the NFL?

what does this even mean?