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B10 Openers - Betting Lines and Previews

Grant Green

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Jan 22, 2004
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Woo hoo! B10 gets started this week. Already some interesting lines on the board.

Wisky -20.5 vs Illinois. QB Cohen is out for UW. J Taylor is gone and that is a big loss. Illinois returns a lot, including Peters at QB and OL starters, but did lose some DL players. I'm seeing a bit of money coming in on Illy, but the line has held steady. Going to be cold and breezy and UW likes to run slow on offense.

PSU -6.5 at Indiana. I think we all know about PSUs player losses. Ciarrocca should be a big improvement though. IU also changed OC. Kalen DeBoer was a really good OC and is now HC at Fresno. This is a loss, where the addition of Ciarrocca to PSU is a gain. IU returns a lot, including QB Penix. It seems like IU is the trendy dog of the week.

MSU is -13.5 vs Rutgers. Both schools have new coaching staffs. Mel Tucker not a very overwhelming name for MSU. They will be changing schemes on O and D and had no spring practices. Schiano a much bigger name for Rutgers and he brings Sean Gleeson in as OC. Rutgers also has a number of transfers. I don't know how Sparty can give 13.5 to anyone, but man, it's hard to bet Rutgers. Maybe an under bet?

Iowa -3.5 at Purdue. Iowa lost a lot on defense and some on offense, including Stanley. Rondale Moore is coming back for Purdue, along with a lot of offensive production. +3.5 is so attractive for Purdue, but Brohm is out with Covid. His brother will be calling plays. Hard to take Purdue knowing the Brohm is not on the sidelines.

UM -3.5 at Minny. UM has been terrible on the road vs ranked teams. They lost some players to NFL/opt outs/transfer on offense. QB is Joe Milton who beat out McCaffrey (who looks to transfer) Minny obviously lost their OC. Mike Sanford takes over and really isn't that impressive to me. There are hints of Covid issues too. My first inclination was to go Minny +3.5 all the way, but Covid and a new OC is concerning. Under the point total may be a good look.

OSU -26 vs Nebraska. Is Nebraska going to finally show up for Scott Frost? They were drubbed last year vs OSU. The line is probably higher than it should be, but it is difficult to bet against and OSU team that is probably looking to run up the score.

NW -10.5 vs Maryland. How is NW giving this many points? Typically a team to bet against as a fav and bet as a dog. NW also has a new OC, who may want to play faster than they have in the past (they ran slooow). QB Ramsey comes in from IU and they return a lot. Maryland was not good on offense last year. Josh Jackson opted out and Pigrome transferred. Tagovailoa transfers in from Bama at QB. Scottie Montgomery in as OC.
 
Here are the O/(U) 's for the above games.

Wisky/Illy: 51-1/2

PSU/Ind: 61-1/2

Rut/MSU: 44-1/2

Neb/OSU: 68

Iowa/Pur: 52

Md/NW: 54-1/2

Minny/Mich: 54


I like Illy @ +20.5 and the under in the PSU game (sluggish Week 1 offenses coupled with forecasted winds in the 8-12 mph range).
 
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Woo hoo! B10 gets started this week. Already some interesting lines on the board.

Wisky -20.5 vs Illinois. QB Cohen is out for UW. J Taylor is gone and that is a big loss. Illinois returns a lot, including Peters at QB and OL starters, but did lose some DL players. I'm seeing a bit of money coming in on Illy, but the line has held steady. Going to be cold and breezy and UW likes to run slow on offense.

PSU -6.5 at Indiana. I think we all know about PSUs player losses. Ciarrocca should be a big improvement though. IU also changed OC. Kalen DeBoer was a really good OC and is now HC at Fresno. This is a loss, where the addition of Ciarrocca to PSU is a gain. IU returns a lot, including QB Penix. It seems like IU is the trendy dog of the week.

MSU is -13.5 vs Rutgers. Both schools have new coaching staffs. Mel Tucker not a very overwhelming name for MSU. They will be changing schemes on O and D and had no spring practices. Schiano a much bigger name for Rutgers and he brings Sean Gleeson in as OC. Rutgers also has a number of transfers. I don't know how Sparty can give 13.5 to anyone, but man, it's hard to bet Rutgers. Maybe an under bet?

Iowa -3.5 at Purdue. Iowa lost a lot on defense and some on offense, including Stanley. Rondale Moore is coming back for Purdue, along with a lot of offensive production. +3.5 is so attractive for Purdue, but Brohm is out with Covid. His brother will be calling plays. Hard to take Purdue knowing the Brohm is not on the sidelines.

UM -3.5 at Minny. UM has been terrible on the road vs ranked teams. They lost some players to NFL/opt outs/transfer on offense. QB is Joe Milton who beat out McCaffrey (who looks to transfer) Minny obviously lost their OC. Mike Sanford takes over and really isn't that impressive to me. There are hints of Covid issues too. My first inclination was to go Minny +3.5 all the way, but Covid and a new OC is concerning. Under the point total may be a good look.

OSU -26 vs Nebraska. Is Nebraska going to finally show up for Scott Frost? They were drubbed last year vs OSU. The line is probably higher than it should be, but it is difficult to bet against and OSU team that is probably looking to run up the score.

NW -10.5 vs Maryland. How is NW giving this many points? Typically a team to bet against as a fav and bet as a dog. NW also has a new OC, who may want to play faster than they have in the past (they ran slooow). QB Ramsey comes in from IU and they return a lot. Maryland was not good on offense last year. Josh Jackson opted out and Pigrome transferred. Tagovailoa transfers in from Bama at QB. Scottie Montgomery in as OC.

Nebraska’s days are done. OSU will smoke them like a brisket.
 
Here are the O/(U) 's for the above games.

Wisky/Illy: 51-1/2

PSU/Ind: 61-1/2

Rut/MSU: 44-1/2

Neb/OSU: 68

Iowa/Pur: 52

Md/NW: 54-1/2

Minny/Mich: 54
I believe the stadiums will be empty for all games. No crowd noise for opposing offenses. Weigh that against the rust factor as well as coaching/scheme changes.
of those I am taking Iowa.
At this time, there is a choice to be made. Iowa -3 with juice (I see -115 to -118) or Iowa -3.5 with low vig (-103 to -105). 3 is a key number, but don't underestimate the impact of a -115 vs -105 vig.
 
I believe the stadiums will be empty for all games. No crowd noise for opposing offenses. Weigh that against the rust factor as well as coaching/scheme changes.

At this time, there is a choice to be made. Iowa -3 with juice (I see -115 to -118) or Iowa -3.5 with low vig (-103 to -105). 3 is a key number, but don't underestimate the impact of a -115 vs -105 vig.
Getting off the 3 is definitely worth a jump of 10 cents in juice
 
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Thoughts on the Gophers?
Defense in the middle is a pretty big question mark. One safety is good, but you don't just replace the other. Winfield Jr. was the best safety we've had since Tyrone Carter. We also lost two other players on defense that made NFL rosters. Unlike Penn State, or Michigan, we don't just reload. I still think we have a punchers chance because our defense might just have enough to confuse their inexperienced QB.

On offense I think we have a slight advantage. The entire OL returns along with Tanner Morgan (QB) a solid RB and two of the three receivers. Michigan's OL IIRC lost four of five OL. I think the initial pickem was/ is the correct thought.

All of this is based on no or minimal Covid-19 impact. The homer in me says Minnesota in a close one. The logical part of me says Michigan in a close one.

Either way, I think it will be close.

Now watch the scoreboard get lit up like a pinball machine. ;)
 
Defense in the middle is a pretty big question mark. One safety is good, but you don't just replace the other. Winfield Jr. was the best safety we've had since Tyrone Carter. We also lost two other players on defense that made NFL rosters. Unlike Penn State, or Michigan, we don't just reload. I still think we have a punchers chance because our defense might just have enough to confuse their inexperienced QB.

On offense I think we have a slight advantage. The entire OL returns along with Tanner Morgan (QB) a solid RB and two of the three receivers. Michigan's OL IIRC lost four of five OL. I think the initial pickem was/ is the correct thought.

All of this is based on no or minimal Covid-19 impact. The homer in me says Minnesota in a close one. The logical part of me says Michigan in a close one.

Either way, I think it will be close.

Now watch the scoreboard get lit up like a pinball machine. ;)
Winfield was awesome and key to that defense. He was injured a lot though, right? Last season? 2018? can't recall.

You're not hearing much about Covid concerns? The homer and the locigal part of you are both saying Minny at +3/3.5.
 
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Defense in the middle is a pretty big question mark. One safety is good, but you don't just replace the other. Winfield Jr. was the best safety we've had since Tyrone Carter. We also lost two other players on defense that made NFL rosters. Unlike Penn State, or Michigan, we don't just reload. I still think we have a punchers chance because our defense might just have enough to confuse their inexperienced QB.

On offense I think we have a slight advantage. The entire OL returns along with Tanner Morgan (QB) a solid RB and two of the three receivers. Michigan's OL IIRC lost four of five OL. I think the initial pickem was/ is the correct thought.

All of this is based on no or minimal Covid-19 impact. The homer in me says Minnesota in a close one. The logical part of me says Michigan in a close one.

Either way, I think it will be close.

Now watch the scoreboard get lit up like a pinball machine. ;)
Definitely pulling for Minnesota and think they can pull this out. Michigan underperformed recently with better talent. They lost a lot from last year's squad and the overall team talent is on the decline. Minnesota change at OC is a negative but all that returning experience on offense should mitigate it reasonably. I like Minnesota in what is supposedly an upset.
 
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Winfield was awesome and key to that defense. He was injured a lot though, right? Last season? 2018? can't recall.

You're not hearing much about Covid concerns? The homer and the locigal part of you are both saying Minny at +3/3.5.
Winfield was injured 2017 and 2018. Last year was a good year for him. What I have heard is that one defensive player may not be available due to Covid. I think that two OL may be opting out? Fleck is playing this very close to the vest, so really none of us know. The good thing is the OL went 7 deep last year. Is that enough?
 
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