From the review...
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Al Gore and the media were wrong: U.S. Major Hurricane Drought Now One Decade and Counting
Posted by Anthony Watts
As of today, October 24th, it has been 3652 days (including leap years) or a decade (10 years) since the US has been hit by a Category 3 or greater hurricane.
The last such hurricane was Wilma on October 24th, 2005. Hurricane Wilma was the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.
Each day forward will be a new record in this decade long hurricane drought period.
Map plotting the track and intensity of the storm according to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale
Via Wikipedia’s article on Wilma:
But, to listen to Al Gore and the media, you’d think global warming has made more hurricanes hit the U.S. since then. In fact, there has been no Category three or stronger hurricane that has made U.S. landfall in a decade.
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. wrote on his blog:
Above are some graphs for those of you interested in the remarkable, ongoing drought in intense hurricane landfalls in the US, which is stretching close to 10 years. The top graph shows the days in between intense (category 3+) landfalls in the US since 1900. The bottom graph shows the same information, but only for Florida landfalls.
You can see that for the US, the current “intense hurricane drought” is unprecedented in at least a century. For Florida, there have been other long stretches between intense hurricane landfalls. Over the past century the average time between intense landfalls in Florida has just about doubled, from about 3 years to 6 years.
Data, sources, discussion: Pielke (2014)
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/decade-of-hurricane-drought2.png
Note: the graphs have been updated by WUWT to reflect current date and values since Pielke wrote his analysis.
CommonDreams.org quoted Al Gore back in 2005:
… the science is extremely clear now, that warmer oceans make the average hurricane stronger, not only makes the winds stronger, but dramatically increases the moisture from the oceans evaporating into the storm – thus magnifying its destructive power – makes the duration, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, stronger.
Last year we had a lot of hurricanes. Last year, Japan set an all-time record for typhoons: ten, the previous record was seven. Last year the science textbooks had to be re-written. They said, “It’s impossible to have a hurricane in the south Atlantic.” We had the first one last year, in Brazil. We had an all-time record last year for tornadoes in the United States, 1,717 – largely because hurricanes spawned tornadoes.
Well, tornadoes aren’t doing any better, as these graphs from the Storm Prediction Center show. Eight of the last eleven years have been below average:
And 2015 threatens to tie the record low year of 1954 for U.S. Tornadooes:
Continued...
Al Gore and the media were wrong: U.S. Major Hurricane Drought Now One Decade and Counting
You can see that for the US, the current “intense hurricane drought” is unprecedented in at least a century.
For Florida, there have been other long stretches between intense hurricane landfalls. Over the past century the average time between intense landfalls in Florida has just about doubled, from about 3 years to 6 years.
Data, sources, discussion: Pielke (2014)
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/decade-of-hurricane-drought2.png
You can see that for the US, the current “intense hurricane drought” is unprecedented in at least a century.
For Florida, there have been other long stretches between intense hurricane landfalls. Over the past century the average time between intense landfalls in Florida has just about doubled, from about 3 years to 6 years.
Data, sources, discussion: Pielke (2014)
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/decade-of-hurricane-drought2.png
======
Al Gore and the media were wrong: U.S. Major Hurricane Drought Now One Decade and Counting
Posted by Anthony Watts
As of today, October 24th, it has been 3652 days (including leap years) or a decade (10 years) since the US has been hit by a Category 3 or greater hurricane.
The last such hurricane was Wilma on October 24th, 2005. Hurricane Wilma was the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.
Each day forward will be a new record in this decade long hurricane drought period.
Map plotting the track and intensity of the storm according to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale
Via Wikipedia’s article on Wilma:
Part of the record breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, which included three of the six most intense Atlantic hurricanes ever (along with #4 Rita and #6 Katrina), Wilma was the twenty-second storm, thirteenth hurricane, sixth major hurricane, fourth Category 5 hurricane, and second-most destructive hurricane of the 2005 season. A tropical depression formed in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica on October 15, and intensified into a tropical storm two days later, which was named Wilma. After heading westward as a tropical depression, Wilma turned abruptly southward after becoming a tropical storm. Wilma continued intensifying, and eventually became a hurricane on October 18. Shortly thereafter, rapid intensification occurred, and in only 24 hours, Wilma became a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 185 mph (295 km/h).
But, to listen to Al Gore and the media, you’d think global warming has made more hurricanes hit the U.S. since then. In fact, there has been no Category three or stronger hurricane that has made U.S. landfall in a decade.
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. wrote on his blog:
Above are some graphs for those of you interested in the remarkable, ongoing drought in intense hurricane landfalls in the US, which is stretching close to 10 years. The top graph shows the days in between intense (category 3+) landfalls in the US since 1900. The bottom graph shows the same information, but only for Florida landfalls.
You can see that for the US, the current “intense hurricane drought” is unprecedented in at least a century. For Florida, there have been other long stretches between intense hurricane landfalls. Over the past century the average time between intense landfalls in Florida has just about doubled, from about 3 years to 6 years.
Data, sources, discussion: Pielke (2014)
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/decade-of-hurricane-drought2.png
Note: the graphs have been updated by WUWT to reflect current date and values since Pielke wrote his analysis.
CommonDreams.org quoted Al Gore back in 2005:
… the science is extremely clear now, that warmer oceans make the average hurricane stronger, not only makes the winds stronger, but dramatically increases the moisture from the oceans evaporating into the storm – thus magnifying its destructive power – makes the duration, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, stronger.
Last year we had a lot of hurricanes. Last year, Japan set an all-time record for typhoons: ten, the previous record was seven. Last year the science textbooks had to be re-written. They said, “It’s impossible to have a hurricane in the south Atlantic.” We had the first one last year, in Brazil. We had an all-time record last year for tornadoes in the United States, 1,717 – largely because hurricanes spawned tornadoes.
Well, tornadoes aren’t doing any better, as these graphs from the Storm Prediction Center show. Eight of the last eleven years have been below average:
And 2015 threatens to tie the record low year of 1954 for U.S. Tornadooes:
Continued...
