The incredible stupidity of many NFL GMs in its starkest form

[Conewago]

Here are some major class of '24 quarterbacks ranked by their average passer rating against top 40 defenses (as rated by SRS (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2023-ratings.html)), qualified slightly by strength of schedule where applicable. Only Qbs with at least 3 games against top 40 Ds were included.

One of the better lines in Moneyball was something like, "If he's such a good hitter, why doesn't he hit?" Some of these people - not the Eagles or Chiefs - focus on "tools" or whatever and don't seem to focus on what QBs actually did in college.

Additionally, drafting QBs in the first round, especially if you're terrible (like New England was last year), was always considered dangerous at best. This is not the MLB; you aren't drafting these players to send them to the minors for 3 years. All drafting a project like Drake Maye does is give you a project who will MOST LIKELY just learn bad habits and get the piss knocked out of him. Choosing that over Marvin Harrison Jr or some elite OT is quite a decision.

Unfortunately, the Rookie Pay Scale - aka the JaMarcus Russell Memorial Rookie Pay Scale - has insulated franchises from the consequences of terrible decisions somewhat.

All this to say Drew Allar could easily go top 5 next year. But he probably doesn't even have to be good to do it.....


1) Jayden Daniels, #2 overall:
Played 6 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 19.5. Average passer rating of 189.7 and 3-3 record.
Note: Major Stud Alert

2) Bo Nix, #12 overall:
Played 4 top 40 DSRS defenses (including both games with Washington) with an average rank of 28. Average passer rating of 160.7 and 2-2 record.
Note: He's solid.


3) JJ McCarthy, #10 overall:
Played 7 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 13. Average passer rating of 154.8 and 7-0 record.
Note: literally the typical Michigan passing gameplan was to avoid passing as much as possible, hence why McCarthy has ridiculous stat lines like 7/8 against Penn State. McCarthy is a mystery with often sketchy footwork. Could be anywhere from really good to disappointing. Taking something like that tenth overall would have been considered crazy before the Rookie Pay Scale. It's still kinda crazy.

4) Sam Hartman, UDFA
Played 6 top 40 defenses with an average rank of 21.5. Average passer rating of 148 and 3-3 record.
Note: I like Hartman a LOT but his being this high did surprise me. Hartman played badly against Clemson (70.9 PR), but was merely mehish against Louisville, very good against Ohio State and Duke (considering how good their Ds were), an absolutely trashed surprisingly good Navy and NC State defenses. Hartman may not be quite as good as this looks, but his not getting drafted is pretty crazy.

5) Michael Penix, #8 overall:
Played 7 (including both games with Oregon, that is) top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 13. Average passer rating of 141.5 and 6-1 record.
Note: I like him more than his numbers, and his numbers aren't bad.


6) Jordan Travis, 5th round:
Played 3 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 21. Average passer rating of 142 and 3-0 record.

7) Caleb Williams, #1 overall:
Played 6 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 15.8. Average passer rating of 141.4 and 1-5 record.
Note: I'll give Williams some slack as far as the 1-5 record - his defense was AWFUL - but the passer rating doesn't lie; he isn't better than Penix, McCarthy (!), or Hartman (!), and he isn't even close to Daniels or Nix. Well, okay, I do think he's probably better than McCarthy, but, uh, it isn't OBVIOUS that he is.


8) Devin Leary, 6th round:
Played 6 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 14.6. Average passer rating of 133.7 and 1-5 record.

9t) Drake Maye, #3 overall:
Played 3 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 28.3. Average passer rating of 129.3 and 1-2 record.
Note: New England drafting this massive project QB instead of an OT or Marvin Harrison is insanely laughable. Unfortunately, the Rookie Pay Scale (which was incorporated after the JaMarcus Russell debacle) has insulated franchises from the consequences of obviously idiotic decisions like this one.


9t) Jason Bean UDFA:
Played 3 top 40 defenses with an average rank of 23.7. Average passer rating of 128.2 and 2-1 record.
Note: Considering that Drake Maye padded his stats massively in garbage time against ND, you could argue Bean is better. "Oh, but the tools."

11) Joe Milton, 6th round:
Played 4 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 16. Average passer rating of 116.6 and 1-3 record.
Note: Drake Maye is the White Joe Milton or Joe Milton is the Black Drake Maye. "Oh, but the tools." I can't believe New England drafted both.

12) Jack Plummer, UDFA:
Played 4 top 40 defenses with an average rank of 16.3. Average passer rating of 112.8 and 3-1 record.


13) Tanner Mordecai, UDFA:
Played 3 top 40 defenses with an average ranking of 17.6. Average passer rating of 111 and 2-1 record.


14) Spencer Rattler ROFLMAO 5th round:
Played 5 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 19.2 Average passer rating of 98.4 and 0-5 record.
Note: this guy was so bad (way worse than 2023 Drew Allar) I'm amazed some idiotic team didn't draft him much higher.

 

[GastonLion]

I have never understood why bad teams give up so much to move up in the draft for a marque quarterback and watch the kid fail. A good/great quarterback can't turn around a bad team immediately; the Panthers of 2023 are witness to this. They broke the bank for Bryce Young, inserted him into the starting offense that stunk and may have destroyed the kid.
The problem is that teams are short-sighted and want to win now rather than build a team first and then get their quarterback. As the OP implied above, NE would be better if they drafted Marvin Harrison at #3 this year and built an offense in this years and next years drafts. Then, with good offensive support they get their quarterback in 2026 and have him positioned for success.
Teams just don't have the patience to logically build a team and chase the quick and "easy" fix.

 

[Kasparaitis]

Here are some major class of '24 quarterbacks ranked by their average passer rating against top 40 defenses (as rated by SRS (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2023-ratings.html)), qualified slightly by strength of schedule where applicable. Only Qbs with at least 3 games against top 40 Ds were included.

One of the better lines in Moneyball was something like, "If he's such a good hitter, why doesn't he hit?" Some of these people - not the Eagles or Chiefs - focus on "tools" or whatever and don't seem to focus on what QBs actually did in college.

Additionally, drafting QBs in the first round, especially if you're terrible (like New England was last year), was always considered dangerous at best. This is not the MLB; you aren't drafting these players to send them to the minors for 3 years. All drafting a project like Drake Maye does is give you a project who will MOST LIKELY just learn bad habits and get the piss knocked out of him. Choosing that over Marvin Harrison Jr or some elite OT is quite a decision.

Unfortunately, the Rookie Pay Scale - aka the JaMarcus Russell Memorial Rookie Pay Scale - has insulated franchises from the consequences of terrible decisions somewhat.

All this to say Drew Allar could easily go top 5 next year. But he probably doesn't even have to be good to do it.....


1) Jayden Daniels, #2 overall:
Played 6 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 19.5. Average passer rating of 189.7 and 3-3 record.
Note: Major Stud Alert

2) Bo Nix, #12 overall:
Played 4 top 40 DSRS defenses (including both games with Washington) with an average rank of 28. Average passer rating of 160.7 and 2-2 record.
Note: He's solid.


3) JJ McCarthy, #10 overall:
Played 7 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 13. Average passer rating of 154.8 and 7-0 record.
Note: literally the typical Michigan passing gameplan was to avoid passing as much as possible, hence why McCarthy has ridiculous stat lines like 7/8 against Penn State. McCarthy is a mystery with often sketchy footwork. Could be anywhere from really good to disappointing. Taking something like that tenth overall would have been considered crazy before the Rookie Pay Scale. It's still kinda crazy.

4) Sam Hartman, UDFA
Played 6 top 40 defenses with an average rank of 21.5. Average passer rating of 148 and 3-3 record.
Note: I like Hartman a LOT but his being this high did surprise me. Hartman played badly against Clemson (70.9 PR), but was merely mehish against Louisville, very good against Ohio State and Duke (considering how good their Ds were), an absolutely trashed surprisingly good Navy and NC State defenses. Hartman may not be quite as good as this looks, but his not getting drafted is pretty crazy.

5) Michael Penix, #8 overall:
Played 7 (including both games with Oregon, that is) top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 13. Average passer rating of 141.5 and 6-1 record.
Note: I like him more than his numbers, and his numbers aren't bad.


6) Jordan Travis, 5th round:
Played 3 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 21. Average passer rating of 142 and 3-0 record.

7) Caleb Williams, #1 overall:
Played 6 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 15.8. Average passer rating of 141.4 and 1-5 record.
Note: I'll give Williams some slack as far as the 1-5 record - his defense was AWFUL - but the passer rating doesn't lie; he isn't better than Penix, McCarthy (!), or Hartman (!), and he isn't even close to Daniels or Nix. Well, okay, I do think he's probably better than McCarthy, but, uh, it isn't OBVIOUS that he is.


8) Devin Leary, 6th round:
Played 6 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 14.6. Average passer rating of 133.7 and 1-5 record.

9t) Drake Maye, #3 overall:
Played 3 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 28.3. Average passer rating of 129.3 and 1-2 record.
Note: New England drafting this massive project QB instead of an OT or Marvin Harrison is insanely laughable. Unfortunately, the Rookie Pay Scale (which was incorporated after the JaMarcus Russell debacle) has insulated franchises from the consequences of obviously idiotic decisions like this one.


9t) Jason Bean UDFA:
Played 3 top 40 defenses with an average rank of 23.7. Average passer rating of 128.2 and 2-1 record.
Note: Considering that Drake Maye padded his stats massively in garbage time against ND, you could argue Bean is better. "Oh, but the tools."

11) Joe Milton, 6th round:
Played 4 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 16. Average passer rating of 116.6 and 1-3 record.
Note: Drake Maye is the White Joe Milton or Joe Milton is the Black Drake Maye. "Oh, but the tools." I can't believe New England drafted both.

12) Jack Plummer, UDFA:
Played 4 top 40 defenses with an average rank of 16.3. Average passer rating of 112.8 and 3-1 record.


13) Tanner Mordecai, UDFA:
Played 3 top 40 defenses with an average ranking of 17.6. Average passer rating of 111 and 2-1 record.


14) Spencer Rattler ROFLMAO 5th round:
Played 5 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 19.2 Average passer rating of 98.4 and 0-5 record.
Note: this guy was so bad (way worse than 2023 Drew Allar) I'm amazed some idiotic team didn't draft him much higher.

I’ve been saying a version of this for a while. Why do teams continue to waste first half of first round picks on marginal quarterbacks when they can get All Pro players at other positions? It’s just dumb.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

I have never understood why bad teams give up so much to move up in the draft for a marque quarterback and watch the kid fail. A good/great quarterback can't turn around a bad team immediately; the Panthers of 2023 are witness to this. They broke the bank for Bryce Young, inserted him into the starting offense that stunk and may have destroyed the kid.
The problem is that teams are short-sighted and want to win now rather than build a team first and then get their quarterback. As the OP implied above, NE would be better if they drafted Marvin Harrison at #3 this year and built an offense in this years and next years drafts. Then, with good offensive support they get their quarterback in 2026 and have him positioned for success.
Teams just don't have the patience to logically build a team and chase the quick and "easy" fix.

Even the Steelers did this with Pickett before they had their OL solidified. I'd always make sure that the OL is very solid before taking a QB in the 1st round.

 

[lazydave841]

Here are some major class of '24 quarterbacks ranked by their average passer rating against top 40 defenses

Any idea where Mahomes Allen Hurts and Lamar ranked in their classes?

 

[Nbergbuck]

Here are some major class of '24 quarterbacks ranked by their average passer rating against top 40 defenses (as rated by SRS (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2023-ratings.html)), qualified slightly by strength of schedule where applicable. Only Qbs with at least 3 games against top 40 Ds were included.

One of the better lines in Moneyball was something like, "If he's such a good hitter, why doesn't he hit?" Some of these people - not the Eagles or Chiefs - focus on "tools" or whatever and don't seem to focus on what QBs actually did in college.

Additionally, drafting QBs in the first round, especially if you're terrible (like New England was last year), was always considered dangerous at best. This is not the MLB; you aren't drafting these players to send them to the minors for 3 years. All drafting a project like Drake Maye does is give you a project who will MOST LIKELY just learn bad habits and get the piss knocked out of him. Choosing that over Marvin Harrison Jr or some elite OT is quite a decision.

Unfortunately, the Rookie Pay Scale - aka the JaMarcus Russell Memorial Rookie Pay Scale - has insulated franchises from the consequences of terrible decisions somewhat.

All this to say Drew Allar could easily go top 5 next year. But he probably doesn't even have to be good to do it.....


1) Jayden Daniels, #2 overall:
Played 6 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 19.5. Average passer rating of 189.7 and 3-3 record.
Note: Major Stud Alert

2) Bo Nix, #12 overall:
Played 4 top 40 DSRS defenses (including both games with Washington) with an average rank of 28. Average passer rating of 160.7 and 2-2 record.
Note: He's solid.


3) JJ McCarthy, #10 overall:
Played 7 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 13. Average passer rating of 154.8 and 7-0 record.
Note: literally the typical Michigan passing gameplan was to avoid passing as much as possible, hence why McCarthy has ridiculous stat lines like 7/8 against Penn State. McCarthy is a mystery with often sketchy footwork. Could be anywhere from really good to disappointing. Taking something like that tenth overall would have been considered crazy before the Rookie Pay Scale. It's still kinda crazy.

4) Sam Hartman, UDFA
Played 6 top 40 defenses with an average rank of 21.5. Average passer rating of 148 and 3-3 record.
Note: I like Hartman a LOT but his being this high did surprise me. Hartman played badly against Clemson (70.9 PR), but was merely mehish against Louisville, very good against Ohio State and Duke (considering how good their Ds were), an absolutely trashed surprisingly good Navy and NC State defenses. Hartman may not be quite as good as this looks, but his not getting drafted is pretty crazy.

5) Michael Penix, #8 overall:
Played 7 (including both games with Oregon, that is) top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 13. Average passer rating of 141.5 and 6-1 record.
Note: I like him more than his numbers, and his numbers aren't bad.


6) Jordan Travis, 5th round:
Played 3 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 21. Average passer rating of 142 and 3-0 record.

7) Caleb Williams, #1 overall:
Played 6 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 15.8. Average passer rating of 141.4 and 1-5 record.
Note: I'll give Williams some slack as far as the 1-5 record - his defense was AWFUL - but the passer rating doesn't lie; he isn't better than Penix, McCarthy (!), or Hartman (!), and he isn't even close to Daniels or Nix. Well, okay, I do think he's probably better than McCarthy, but, uh, it isn't OBVIOUS that he is.


8) Devin Leary, 6th round:
Played 6 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 14.6. Average passer rating of 133.7 and 1-5 record.

9t) Drake Maye, #3 overall:
Played 3 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 28.3. Average passer rating of 129.3 and 1-2 record.
Note: New England drafting this massive project QB instead of an OT or Marvin Harrison is insanely laughable. Unfortunately, the Rookie Pay Scale (which was incorporated after the JaMarcus Russell debacle) has insulated franchises from the consequences of obviously idiotic decisions like this one.


9t) Jason Bean UDFA:
Played 3 top 40 defenses with an average rank of 23.7. Average passer rating of 128.2 and 2-1 record.
Note: Considering that Drake Maye padded his stats massively in garbage time against ND, you could argue Bean is better. "Oh, but the tools."

11) Joe Milton, 6th round:
Played 4 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 16. Average passer rating of 116.6 and 1-3 record.
Note: Drake Maye is the White Joe Milton or Joe Milton is the Black Drake Maye. "Oh, but the tools." I can't believe New England drafted both.

12) Jack Plummer, UDFA:
Played 4 top 40 defenses with an average rank of 16.3. Average passer rating of 112.8 and 3-1 record.


13) Tanner Mordecai, UDFA:
Played 3 top 40 defenses with an average ranking of 17.6. Average passer rating of 111 and 2-1 record.


14) Spencer Rattler ROFLMAO 5th round:
Played 5 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 19.2 Average passer rating of 98.4 and 0-5 record.
Note: this guy was so bad (way worse than 2023 Drew Allar) I'm amazed some idiotic team didn't draft him much higher.

Nothing tops the Browns trading 3 1st round picks and 3 other picks for Deshaun Watson. Then they gave him 240M all guaranteed. The Browns have screwed themselves for the next decade.

 

[joeaubie21]

The Steelers were polishing a 💩 with Pickett.

 

[Ward Hog]

This is known as Jets & Browns syndrome which many other teams are often afflicted with as well. Problem for many teams with this syndrome is that they either destroy the kid or don't have ability to obtain players ( draft or cap) because of the investment once they develop, so the can't miss leaves or is discarded for the next can't miss QB.

Once you enter this cycle, you can't get out. You have no money. You gave away all draft picks. You have no players. But you "earned" that high pick through the above so you "invest" all you have again. It's an addiction that is similar to gambling. One more and we'll win!

 

[LMTLION]

Nothing tops the Browns trading 3 1st round picks and 3 other picks for Deshaun Watson. Then they gave him 240M all guaranteed. The Browns have screwed themselves for the next decade.

Very true. That is probably the worst of all time.

 

[OKLionFan]

Maybe. The Redskins/Washington Football Team/Commanders did their idiotic deal with RGIII 12 years ago and have never recovered. The clock is still running on their return to respectability.

 

[lowhandicapper]

I have never understood why bad teams give up so much to move up in the draft for a marque quarterback and watch the kid fail.

So if anyone listened to Saban talk about his Dolphins team during the draft coverage, he reiterated that you CANNOT win the NFL without a top level QB. It can't be done. He spoke of how he had the #4 defense and excellent special teams but was too weak at the QB position to even make the playoffs when coaching the Dolphins. How you can have the best offensive weapons in the league but if you don't have a qb to distribute it to them it won't matter.
I trust Saban, he's the best coach in college football history.
QB just too important. NFL executives realize sometimes it's better to take a calculated risk on flipping the QB position, even knowing it works out at a pretty low percentage.

 

[AWS1022]

So if anyone listened to Saban talk about his Dolphins team during the draft coverage, he reiterated that you CANNOT win the NFL without a top level QB. It can't be done. He spoke of how he had the #4 defense and excellent special teams but was too weak at the QB position to even make the playoffs when coaching the Dolphins. How you can have the best offensive weapons in the league but if you don't have a qb to distribute it to them it won't matter.
I trust Saban, he's the best coach in college football history.
QB just too important. NFL executives realize sometimes it's better to take a calculated risk on flipping the QB position, even knowing it works out at a pretty low percentage.

Yet he passed on getting Drew Brees so he could get Dante Culpepper. Not exactly an NFL savant.

 

[lowhandicapper]

Yet he passed on getting Drew Brees so he could get Dante Culpepper. Not exactly an NFL savant.

Gee I don't know about that.

Culpepper had way more upside than Brees at that point. In Brees 1st three years in the league he had a completion percentage of 55% and had 29 TDs to 31 INTs.
Daunte Culpepper had just come off a season with 69% 39TD to 11 INT.
Culpepper was the move there.
Brees flourished well after Saban's career. Brees career took off in 2008, two years after Saban was back at Bama but don't let the facts get in the way of a good bias.

 

[AWS1022]

Gee I don't know about that.

Culpepper had way more upside than Brees at that point. In Brees 1st three years in the league he had a completion percentage of 55% and had 29 TDs to 31 INTs.
Daunte Culpepper had just come off a season with 69% 39TD to 11 INT.
Culpepper was the move there.
Brees flourished well after Saban's career. Brees career took off in 2008, two years after Saban was back at Bama but don't let the facts get in the way of a good bias.

And Culpepper wasn’t going to have Randy Moss at Miami. The season you describe was two years before he went to Miami…the year before he had a bad season because he didn’t have Moss. It didn’t take a football genius to realize Culpepper was who he was because of Moss, but don’t let facts get in the way of a good bias.

 

[lowhandicapper]

And Culpepper wasn’t going to have Randy Moss at Miami. The season you describe was two years before he went to Miami…the year before he had a bad season because he didn’t have Moss. It didn’t take a football genius to realize Culpepper was who he was because of Moss, but don’t let facts get in the way of a good bias.

Speculation.

It was Culpepper's last full season before going to Miami. He was injured his last year in Minnesota, played less than half the games.
Culpepper's stats versus Brees stats up to 2005 were not even close. Not even remotely close to equal. Culpepper was 1st team all NFC twice during that time. Twice first team all conference in his first 6 years in the league. Culpepper was and looked to the better QB at that time, by far. He was by all accounts, one of the best 5 QB's in the league, if not top 3, when he signed with Miami.
This is not opinion, it is fact.

 

[Kasparaitis]

Speculation.

It was Culpepper's last full season before going to Miami. He was injured his last year in Minnesota, played less than half the games.
Culpepper's stats versus Brees stats up to 2005 were not even close. Not even remotely close to equal. Culpepper was 1st team all NFC twice during that time. Twice first team all conference in his first 6 years in the league. Culpepper was and looked to the better QB at that time, by far. He was by all accounts, one of the best 5 QB's in the league, if not top 3, when he signed with Miami.
This is not opinion, it is fact.

This forum is funny. People wrap themselves in a pretzel rather than just going down with the ship and maintaining their honor. You can win in the NFL with a great team and a good quarterback. Tampa did well this year with a pretty good team and a pretty good quarterback. Or you can win with a good team and a great quarterback. The Chiefs this year would be an example of that although they also got help in the playoffs by the referees allowing their receivers to make illegal picks.

 

[The Spin Meister]

QBs are way over valued. Spend the money on getting the best o line and two top receivers. There are plenty of both QBs and running backs that would do well with that type of team.

There are probably 10-12 talented QBs every draft class. Just put them on a good team, allow them two years to adapt to NFL defenses.

 

[AWS1022]

Speculation.

It was Culpepper's last full season before going to Miami. He was injured his last year in Minnesota, played less than half the games.
Culpepper's stats versus Brees stats up to 2005 were not even close. Not even remotely close to equal. Culpepper was 1st team all NFC twice during that time. Twice first team all conference in his first 6 years in the league. Culpepper was and looked to the better QB at that time, by far. He was by all accounts, one of the best 5 QB's in the league, if not top 3, when he signed with Miami.
This is not opinion, it is fact.

Again, he was what he was because of Moss…it’s pretty simple.

 

[Kasparaitis]

QBs are way over valued. Spend the money on getting the best o line and two top receivers. There are plenty of both QBs and running backs that would do well with that type of team.

There are probably 10-12 talented QBs every draft class. Just put them on a good team, allow them two years to adapt to NFL defenses.

I would say about half that number. And half of those should never be taken in the first half of the first round because of the risk.

 

[joeaubie21]

Very true. That is probably the worst of all time.

😮

 

[lowhandicapper]

Again, he was what he was because of Moss…it’s pretty simple.

Yes, Montana was made by Rice, Stafford by Johnson, Mahomes by Kelce & Hill, Marino by Duper & Clayton, Manning by Harrison, Big Ben by AB, Ryan by Julio, Brady by Gronk & Edelman....Ya know the list goes on.
Let's talk about all those great quarterbacks that had crappy receivers. Wait, that never happened.
I can keep going all you want.
Situation is as important as talent.
Brees was an infinitely better QB than Dante Culpepper, but he wasn't before 2006.
Following the 2005 season there would be no justifiable way to rate Brees ahead of Culpepper on paper, stats wise or physically. Not one possible way. The only thing you could say about Brees at this point was he was a producer in college on a mediocre team.
But Saban isn't a football savant. Hahahaha, that's seriously hilarious.
Brees flourished like Kerry Collins flourished, late in his career under Sean Payton.

 

[AWS1022]

Yes, Montana was made by Rice, Stafford by Johnson, Mahomes by Kelce & Hill, Marino by Duper & Clayton, Manning by Harrison, Big Ben by AB, Ryan by Julio, Brady by Gronk & Edelman....Ya know the list goes on.
Let's talk about all those great quarterbacks that had crappy receivers. Wait, that never happened.
I can keep going all you want.
Situation is as important as talent.
Brees was an infinitely better QB than Dante Culpepper, but he wasn't before 2006.
Following the 2005 season there would be no justifiable way to rate Brees ahead of Culpepper on paper, stats wise or physically. Not one possible way. The only thing you could say about Brees at this point was he was a producer in college on a mediocre team.
But Saban isn't a football savant. Hahahaha, that's seriously hilarious.
Brees flourished like Kerry Collins flourished, late in his career under Sean Payton.

I said Saban wasn’t an NFL savant (I didn’t say football savant), which proved to be true. Also, coaches need to look at more than just stats. I was a Dolphins fan and at the time I wanted them to get Brees and not Culpepper because I knew without Moss, Culpepper was garbage (and I’m not a paid football guy). Saban made the wrong choice no matter how you want to justify it. The difference in your other examples is those QB’s were great even with different receivers, Culpepper was not. I’m sure Saban would admit he made a bad decision as does everyone else (except you).

 

[Kasparaitis]

Yes, Montana was made by Rice, Stafford by Johnson, Mahomes by Kelce & Hill, Marino by Duper & Clayton, Manning by Harrison, Big Ben by AB, Ryan by Julio, Brady by Gronk & Edelman....Ya know the list goes on.
Let's talk about all those great quarterbacks that had crappy receivers. Wait, that never happened.
I can keep going all you want.
Situation is as important as talent.
Brees was an infinitely better QB than Dante Culpepper, but he wasn't before 2006.
Following the 2005 season there would be no justifiable way to rate Brees ahead of Culpepper on paper, stats wise or physically. Not one possible way. The only thing you could say about Brees at this point was he was a producer in college on a mediocre team.
But Saban isn't a football savant. Hahahaha, that's seriously hilarious.
Brees flourished like Kerry Collins flourished, late in his career under Sean Payton.

Yes many football people mention Dante Culpepper in the same sentence as Joe Montana. I hear that every day. And Kerry Collins flourished his whole career. He made the Pro Bowl and conference championship game in his second year. He is in the top 20 of all time passers. You obviously don’t know what you’re talking about.

 

[lowhandicapper]

Yes many football people mention Dante Culpepper in the same sentence as Joe Montana. I hear that every day. And Kerry Collins flourished his whole career. He made the Pro Bowl and conference championship game in his second year. He is in the top 20 of all time passers. You obviously don’t know what you’re talking about.

Kerry Collins lead the NFL in interceptions in his the 3rd year. Was nearly out of football his fourth year, hardly played his 5th year and only had one season to that point with more TD's than interceptions. That's hardly flourishing.
Collins is in the all time top 20 passing yards and that's it. Not top 20 in any other passing statistic. In top 15 of all time NFL turnovers.
Kerry was reinvented by Payton in NY. Fact.
Loved him. Amazing arm talent. Pretty good quarterback, not great. Lacked awareness and decision making of the greats. It sure helped to have Ike Hilliard, Amani Toomer and Jeremy Shockey too. But let's not give anyone any credit for the team around them.

 

[Kasparaitis]

Kerry Collins lead the NFL in interceptions in his the 3rd year. Was nearly out of football his fourth year, hardly played his 5th year and only had one season to that point with more TD's than interceptions. That's hardly flourishing.
Collins is in the all time top 20 passing yards and that's it. Not top 20 in any other passing statistic. In top 15 of all time NFL turnovers.
Kerry was reinvented by Payton in NY. Fact.
Loved him. Amazing arm talent. Pretty good quarterback, not great. Lacked awareness and decision making of the greats. It sure helped to have Ike Hilliard, Amani Toomer and Jeremy Shockey too. But let's not give anyone any credit for the team around them.

Glub. Glub. Glub. You’re going down, down, down, down, down . The top 20 passer in history sucks but Dante Culpepper is Montanaesque. You should be an NFL GM. For the Jets.

 

[lowhandicapper]

Glub. Glub. Glub. You’re going down, down, down, down, down . The top 20 passer in history sucks but Dante Culpepper is Montanaesque. You should be an NFL GM. For the Jets.

Dante Culpepper stinks. However he was a better QB than Drew Brees at that time and it isn't close.
He would have been all-pro twice in his first 4 years if not for a couple guys named Peyton Manning and Tom Brady but you go on and keep minimizing him. I hope it makes you feel great!

 

[Kasparaitis]

Dante Culpepper stinks. However he was a better QB than Drew Brees at that time and it isn't close.
He would have been all-pro twice in his first 4 years if not for a couple guys named Peyton Manning and Tom Brady but you go on and keep minimizing him. I hope it makes you feel great!

It doesn’t make me feel anything at all. But you spectacularly losing your argument should make you feel stupid. Dan Marino would be in the Hall of Fame if he was throwing to me. Drew Brees was an All American college quarterback throwing to stiffs at Purdue. He was one of the most prolific passers in NFL history and will make his way to Canton as soon as he’s eligible. Dante Culpepper may be a nice guy but he shouldn’t even be mentioned with players at this level. You need to go read a book about football because you are currently low-information.

 

[joeaubie21]

I said Saban wasn’t an NFL savant (I didn’t say football savant), which proved to be true. Also, coaches need to look at more than just stats. I was a Dolphins fan and at the time I wanted them to get Brees and not Culpepper because I knew without Moss, Culpepper was garbage (and I’m not a paid football guy). Saban made the wrong choice no matter how you want to justify it. The difference in your other examples is those QB’s were great even with different receivers, Culpepper was not. I’m sure Saban would admit he made a bad decision as does everyone else (except you).

Saban was an accomplished cheat, nothing more.

 

[lowhandicapper]

It doesn’t make me feel anything at all. But you spectacularly losing your argument should make you feel stupid. Dan Marino would be in the Hall of Fame if he was throwing to me. Drew Brees was an All American college quarterback throwing to stiffs at Purdue. He was one of the most prolific passers in NFL history and will make his way to Canton as soon as he’s eligible. Dante Culpepper may be a nice guy but he shouldn’t even be mentioned with players at this level. You need to go read a book about football because you are currently low-information.

Unfortunately you can't win an argument when you ignore the facts and fortunately Dan Marino didn't throw to you because that likely wouldn't have been a path to Canton for him. It is kinda a wild coincidence that all these great QB's you mention had totally amazing wide receivers. What a strange and odd coincidence.

The facts are this:
Daunte Culpepper was a better quarterback than Drew Brees at the time Nick Saban was the head coach of the Miami Dolphins. This is not debatable. Saban was the coach of the Dolphins in 2005-06.
At such time one Daunte Culpepper was a two time All-NFC conference player in two of his first five years and a three time pro bowl selection as a quarterback. Those are significant athletic accomplishments for any human being in any circumstance.

I'm gonna drop you a hint, nobody thinks Daunte Culpepper was a better QB than Drew Brees, but he was in 2004 and probably every year before that. I'm surprised an NFL team hasn't reached out to you about coming on as a futures personnel consultant with you Nostadamus like aura that makes Nick Saban an average football joe. Well maybe in the future, keep your hopes up.

In sports fandom there is nothing lower than the loser who minimizes amazing athletic accomplishments. Feats that almost no other athlete can accomplish in their entire bodies of work, yet some Joe Blow at his recliner with remote in hand says some guy who played at the absolute top of his profession is no good. Its a complete comedy of errors.

With your wealth of football knowledge you can assess these players successes statistically leading up to Saban's NFL tenure.

DAUNTE CULPEPPER 1999-2005

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Succ%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	Sk%	NY/A	ANY/A	4QC	GWD	AV	Awards
1999	22	MIN	QB	12	1	0		0	0		0	0		0		0		0				0.0			0	0						0
2000*	23	MIN	QB	11	16	16	11-5-0	297	474	62.7	3937	33	7.0	16	3.4	188	48.2	78	8.3	8.2	13.3	246.1	98.0		34	181	6.7	7.39	7.28	3	4	20	PB
2001	24	MIN	QB	11	11	11	4-7-0	235	366	64.2	2612	14	3.8	13	3.6	127	46.6	57	7.1	6.3	11.1	237.5	83.3		33	186	8.3	6.08	5.32	2	2	11
2002	25	MIN	QB	11	16	16	6-10-0	333	549	60.7	3853	18	3.3	23	4.2	189	46.5	61	7.0	5.8	11.6	240.8	75.3		47	244	7.9	6.06	4.92	3	4	16
2003*	26	MIN	QB	11	14	14	7-7-0	295	454	65.0	3479	25	5.5	11	2.4	171	49.3	59	7.7	7.7	11.8	248.5	96.4		37	196	7.5	6.69	6.70	0	1	17	AP CPoY-8, PB
2004*	27	MIN	QB	11	16	16	8-8-0	379	548	69.2	4717	39	7.1	11	2.0	224	53.5	82	8.6	9.1	12.4	294.8	110.9		46	238	7.7	7.54	8.02	1	3	20	AP OPoY-2, PB
2005	28	MIN	QB	11	7	7	2-5-0	139	216	64.4	1564	6	2.8	12	5.6	80	42.9	68	7.2	5.3	11.3	223.4	72.0		31	169	12.6	5.65	3.95	1	1	5

DREW BREES 2000-2005

2001	22	SDG	QB	9	1	0		15	27	55.6	221	1	3.7	0	0.0	11	48.3	40	8.2	8.9	14.7	221.0	94.8		2	12	6.9	7.21	7.90			1
2002	23	SDG	QB	9	16	16	8-8-0	320	526	60.8	3284	17	3.2	16	3.0	164	42.7	52	6.2	5.5	10.3	205.3	76.9		24	180	4.4	5.64	4.95	2	4	10
2003	24	SDG	QB	9	11	11	2-9-0	205	356	57.6	2108	11	3.1	15	4.2	94	35.3	68	5.9	4.6	10.3	191.6	67.5		21	178	5.6	5.12	3.91	0	1	6
2004*	25	SDG	QB	9	15	15	11-4-0	262	400	65.5	3159	27	6.8	7	1.8	142	48.3	79	7.9	8.5	12.1	210.6	104.8		18	131	4.3	7.24	7.78	1	2	17	AP OPoY-5, AP CPoY-1, PB
2005	26	SDG	QB	9	16	16	9-7-0	323	500	64.6	3576	24	4.8	15	3.0	183	48.2	54	7.2	6.8	11.1	223.5	89.2		27	223	5.1	6.36	5.99	2	2	15

 

[Kasparaitis]

You’re arguing with yourself because I’m not about to waste my time reading a dissertation from someone who doesn’t know the difference between Joe Montana and Dante Culpepper. You need to get a job.

 

[PSUSignore]

Where's the historical data for NFL QB stats vs. top defenses while in college to show that there's any correlation between the likelihood of NFL success and college stats against top 40 defenses? The other issue here is games vs. top 40 defenses is a relatively small sample size, which can skew results either way.

 

[Conewago]

So if anyone listened to Saban talk about his Dolphins team during the draft coverage, he reiterated that you CANNOT win the NFL without a top level QB. It can't be done. He spoke of how he had the #4 defense and excellent special teams but was too weak at the QB position to even make the playoffs when coaching the Dolphins. How you can have the best offensive weapons in the league but if you don't have a qb to distribute it to them it won't matter.
I trust Saban, he's the best coach in college football history.
QB just too important. NFL executives realize sometimes it's better to take a calculated risk on flipping the QB position, even knowing it works out at a pretty low percentage.

It is absolutely embarrassing to see someone on a Penn State board of all places claim that Nick Saban is the greatest coach in college. Luckiest, absolutely. Paterno would have won no fewer than ten national championships if he had Saban luck. Holtz, 3. Bill Snyder, 2. Lloyd Carr, 3. I could go on.

In any case, what, do I really need to name drop Doug Williams, Joe Flacco, Bob Griese, Mark Rypien, and Trent Dilfer? More to the point, when you are a team like New England, and you have bad talent everywhere, a QB is less important than elite position players. It's when you're already good that a top QB is more important to grab.

Just when I thought I couldn't think Saban was more overrated...

And finally, the evidence is paper thin that the likes of Drake Maye and Spencer Rattler can be top QBs.

 

[Conewago]

Where's the historical data for NFL QB stats vs. top defenses while in college to show that there's any correlation between the likelihood of NFL success and college stats against top 40 defenses? The other issue here is games vs. top 40 defenses is a relatively small sample size, which can skew results either way.

To your first point
This is a respectable point
My initial answer is I don't have free time to calculate in full.

However, note Kenny Pickett. Pitt played an utterly horrendous defensive schedule in 21. And, as it turns out, Kenny Pickett ain't that good.

Second issue is fine and good, but we judge teams and players by what they do against quality competition for obvious reasons. I didn't see anyone in the national media giving LJ a pass in 2002 for having lesser stats against Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio State.

Take Drake Maye. Belichick pointed out his obvious mechanical and fundamental issues. Those bear out in his tough games. Pressure makes diamonds (e.g. Terry Bradshaw in the playoffs) but it also exposes cracks.

 

[voltz99]

Is that a surprise? Half of them will have career losing records.


Who was the GM a few years ago that was asking players what they would do if their mom was raped? WTF kind of question is that? Who would pay for that guy?

 

[Kasparaitis]

It is absolutely embarrassing to see someone on a Penn State board of all places claim that Nick Saban is the greatest coach in college. Luckiest, absolutely. Paterno would have won no fewer than ten national championships if he had Saban luck. Holtz, 3. Bill Snyder, 2. Lloyd Carr, 3. I could go on.

In any case, what, do I really need to name drop Doug Williams, Joe Flacco, Bob Griese, Mark Rypien, and Trent Dilfer? More to the point, when you are a team like New England, and you have bad talent everywhere, a QB is less important than elite position players. It's when you're already good that a top QB is more important to grab.

Just when I thought I couldn't think Saban was more overrated...

And finally, the evidence is paper thin that the likes of Drake Maye and Spencer Rattler can be top QBs.

There are quite a few people on here who desperately thrash around for a life preserver when they’re going down, down, down. Inevitably they just make more outlandish claims in an effort to avoid admitting they were wrong. “We all know” who they are.

 

[PSUSignore]

It is absolutely embarrassing to see someone on a Penn State board of all places claim that Nick Saban is the greatest coach in college. Luckiest, absolutely. Paterno would have won no fewer than ten national championships if he had Saban luck. Holtz, 3. Bill Snyder, 2. Lloyd Carr, 3. I could go on.

In any case, what, do I really need to name drop Doug Williams, Joe Flacco, Bob Griese, Mark Rypien, and Trent Dilfer? More to the point, when you are a team like New England, and you have bad talent everywhere, a QB is less important than elite position players. It's when you're already good that a top QB is more important to grab.

Just when I thought I couldn't think Saban was more overrated...

And finally, the evidence is paper thin that the likes of Drake Maye and Spencer Rattler can be top QBs.

Yeah Saban lucked his way into all 7 of those national titles. 🤣

Saban is unquestionably the best coach in the history of the sport.

 

[Kasparaitis]

Yeah Saban lucked his way into all 7 of those national titles. 🤣

Saban is unquestionably the best coach in the history of the sport.

Yeah, no. He sucked in the NFL and he was barely respectable at Michigan State. We don’t need to rehash the reasons for all that.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Yeah, no. He sucked in the NFL and he was barely respectable at Michigan State. We don’t need to rehash the reasons for all that.

He was great with a huge talent advantage over 95% of the teams that he played. It's not dominating with like talent but it is something. It's better than Ohio St during this era with the exact same talent advantage but no natties to show for it.

 

[LionDeNittany]

Here are some major class of '24 quarterbacks ranked by their average passer rating against top 40 defenses (as rated by SRS (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2023-ratings.html)), qualified slightly by strength of schedule where applicable. Only Qbs with at least 3 games against top 40 Ds were included.

One of the better lines in Moneyball was something like, "If he's such a good hitter, why doesn't he hit?" Some of these people - not the Eagles or Chiefs - focus on "tools" or whatever and don't seem to focus on what QBs actually did in college.

Additionally, drafting QBs in the first round, especially if you're terrible (like New England was last year), was always considered dangerous at best. This is not the MLB; you aren't drafting these players to send them to the minors for 3 years. All drafting a project like Drake Maye does is give you a project who will MOST LIKELY just learn bad habits and get the piss knocked out of him. Choosing that over Marvin Harrison Jr or some elite OT is quite a decision.

Unfortunately, the Rookie Pay Scale - aka the JaMarcus Russell Memorial Rookie Pay Scale - has insulated franchises from the consequences of terrible decisions somewhat.

All this to say Drew Allar could easily go top 5 next year. But he probably doesn't even have to be good to do it.....


1) Jayden Daniels, #2 overall:
Played 6 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 19.5. Average passer rating of 189.7 and 3-3 record.
Note: Major Stud Alert

2) Bo Nix, #12 overall:
Played 4 top 40 DSRS defenses (including both games with Washington) with an average rank of 28. Average passer rating of 160.7 and 2-2 record.
Note: He's solid.


3) JJ McCarthy, #10 overall:
Played 7 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 13. Average passer rating of 154.8 and 7-0 record.
Note: literally the typical Michigan passing gameplan was to avoid passing as much as possible, hence why McCarthy has ridiculous stat lines like 7/8 against Penn State. McCarthy is a mystery with often sketchy footwork. Could be anywhere from really good to disappointing. Taking something like that tenth overall would have been considered crazy before the Rookie Pay Scale. It's still kinda crazy.

4) Sam Hartman, UDFA
Played 6 top 40 defenses with an average rank of 21.5. Average passer rating of 148 and 3-3 record.
Note: I like Hartman a LOT but his being this high did surprise me. Hartman played badly against Clemson (70.9 PR), but was merely mehish against Louisville, very good against Ohio State and Duke (considering how good their Ds were), an absolutely trashed surprisingly good Navy and NC State defenses. Hartman may not be quite as good as this looks, but his not getting drafted is pretty crazy.

5) Michael Penix, #8 overall:
Played 7 (including both games with Oregon, that is) top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 13. Average passer rating of 141.5 and 6-1 record.
Note: I like him more than his numbers, and his numbers aren't bad.


6) Jordan Travis, 5th round:
Played 3 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 21. Average passer rating of 142 and 3-0 record.

7) Caleb Williams, #1 overall:
Played 6 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 15.8. Average passer rating of 141.4 and 1-5 record.
Note: I'll give Williams some slack as far as the 1-5 record - his defense was AWFUL - but the passer rating doesn't lie; he isn't better than Penix, McCarthy (!), or Hartman (!), and he isn't even close to Daniels or Nix. Well, okay, I do think he's probably better than McCarthy, but, uh, it isn't OBVIOUS that he is.


8) Devin Leary, 6th round:
Played 6 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 14.6. Average passer rating of 133.7 and 1-5 record.

9t) Drake Maye, #3 overall:
Played 3 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 28.3. Average passer rating of 129.3 and 1-2 record.
Note: New England drafting this massive project QB instead of an OT or Marvin Harrison is insanely laughable. Unfortunately, the Rookie Pay Scale (which was incorporated after the JaMarcus Russell debacle) has insulated franchises from the consequences of obviously idiotic decisions like this one.


9t) Jason Bean UDFA:
Played 3 top 40 defenses with an average rank of 23.7. Average passer rating of 128.2 and 2-1 record.
Note: Considering that Drake Maye padded his stats massively in garbage time against ND, you could argue Bean is better. "Oh, but the tools."

11) Joe Milton, 6th round:
Played 4 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 16. Average passer rating of 116.6 and 1-3 record.
Note: Drake Maye is the White Joe Milton or Joe Milton is the Black Drake Maye. "Oh, but the tools." I can't believe New England drafted both.

12) Jack Plummer, UDFA:
Played 4 top 40 defenses with an average rank of 16.3. Average passer rating of 112.8 and 3-1 record.


13) Tanner Mordecai, UDFA:
Played 3 top 40 defenses with an average ranking of 17.6. Average passer rating of 111 and 2-1 record.


14) Spencer Rattler ROFLMAO 5th round:
Played 5 top 40 DSRS defenses with an average rank of 19.2 Average passer rating of 98.4 and 0-5 record.
Note: this guy was so bad (way worse than 2023 Drew Allar) I'm amazed some idiotic team didn't draft him much higher.

NFL is faster than College.
Without the measurable, a qb will fail no matter how great a QB he was in college.

Take an Alabama vs OSU game. Every defender on an NFL team will match the single best player on the field for that game. And will have better reaction time due to experience.

If a QB can't throw hard or fast enough they have zero value in the NFL.

 

[voltz99]

Yeah Saban lucked his way into all 7 of those national titles. 🤣

Saban is unquestionably the best coach in the history of the sport.

How many at MSU?