He didn’t like Brooks’ interview. At all. Ended up calling him a name. Agree it was out of character.
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Pan-Am's
- Thread starter mcpat
- Start date
For using the word "prick" to describe Brooks. Why did I use it? Because one of your posters used it to describe DT on the same thread. That guy wasn't suspended for some reason.
I think the results of the tournament were right in line with what I was saying. He lost and then had to beat multiple medal contenders on the back side. Much much tougher than beating Austin Gomez to qualify. He would not have qualified under the old rules. Fortunately, they added an extra spot this year.
Super happy for Zain! I thought he looked outstanding.
This board is super woke.
LOL
You said 10% ??? We were 2 for 2, which is 100% by my math. How is that right in line with what you were saying?
At no time did I say it wouldn't be tougher than PanAms, but it was arrogant to suggest I didn't understand international wrestling when I suggested at least 50%.
It's bizarro to claim now you were right.
By the way, who the F cares about the old rules? I knew it was a top-3 to qualify; maybe you were the uninformed one.
That is not how probability works, my friend.
Also, it was 10% to qualify 65kg specifically. And this discussion was before we saw Zain at 65. He was a shell of himself the last time he made 65 and I didn't think he would be in contention. After seeing him at trials, I felt a lot better than 10%. I would have probably said 33% if we revisited.
I think Lee or Yianni probably lose to the Mongolian and the Indian with this same draw.
Probability??? LOL
We're no rolling dice or flipping coins.
This was a subjective opinion on the strength of our field compared to other nonqualified nations. It wasn't just about Zain. Whoever won the spot at OTT would have a decent chance to qualify at the last chance.
10% wasn't just too low; it was uninformed. USA wrestlers are not chopped liver, our guys are the bad draw more often than not.
well if we were all sleeping we wouldn't have to read your sad comment!
It was literally a probability question.
"How likely are we to qualify at Last Chance?"
I get you're trying to dunk on me, but you gotta do a better job than this.
Well, looking at his wrestle back path only with the draw he had, I'd go 90% match 1, 66% match 2, 50% match 3, 75% match 4 for a final probability of 22%. That's with him as a solid favorite in 3/4 matches and a toss up with the guy he beat on criteria.
That's with some hindsight bias too. Match 2 was probably considered a true toss up heading into it which would bring the probability down to 17%.
And as I said, if I thought this version of Zain was a possibility at the time of this discussion, I wouldn't have given 10% as my number.
Edit: I forgot to include the probability of Tumur pulling him back in. I think I'd go 75% match 1, 66% match 2 which would bring the total probability to 11%. So I was actually pretty spot on.
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Good point. I'll switch Zain's final match against Scriabin to 83%. That brings the final probability to 12%.
Considering I had no idea what the draw would look like, I think this is a pretty remarkable result on my part. Well done @js8793 !!!
@jack66 you were only 38 off (at a minimum) but I think it's great you tried!
Gave the laugh for when you congratulated yourself...
That was some Ironbird shit right there, I knew I liked you.
That was some Ironbird shit right there, I knew I liked you.
You are way off on your math. You included a 50% factor in a match that did not have an absolute failure outcome (Mongolian).
Try again. (or not)
I was in advanced math in elementary school.
DO. NOT. TRY. ME.
DO. NOT. TRY. ME.
Meh. At least you only got a timeout here. And it's not surprising that home team posters have longer leashes than visitors. Anyway, good to have you back.
The math is solid, the handicapper sucks.
Whether it was this version of Zain or someone who beat the 'shell' version of Zain, you underestimated the strength of USA wrestling then, and you underestimate USA wrestling now. There is a reason we are one of only a few counties with six qualifiers.
Manipulating mathematical results with faulty input doesn't cover up the fact that you pulled 10% out of thin air after Nick lost at PanAms.
Your passive-aggressive act has worn thin over here.
Sorry, my reading comprehension is not up to my math skills.
The point remains. Depending on what probability you gave him to beat the Mongolian (which is surely not zero, nor I don't see how it could be less than 25 or 33 percent considering your probabilities of his other matches) you undersold the probability of qualifying.
That doesn't even factor in the fact - alliteration intended - that per random draw, Zain had at least as much chance being drawn into the top half of that bracket as he did into the death march where he landed.
At the end of the day, he was clearly top 2/3 in the bracket (giving him 50/50 with the Indian). Even not seeing him compete at 65kg before - 10% was clearly not in the ball park.
wait are you the guy who’s been trying to call me out for a couple years now for being “passive aggressive?” lol
that’s totally fair and i said that i would have said 33% if we revisited after trials. i didn’t think zain could be effective down at 65, yianni has regressed, and i don’t think lee has fully adapted to international guys (reminds me of early zain).Sorry, my reading comprehension is not up to my math skills.
The point remains. Depending on what probability you gave him to beat the Mongolian (which is surely not zero, nor I don't see how it could be less than 25 or 33 percent considering your probabilities of his other matches) you undersold the probability of qualifying.
That doesn't even factor in the fact - alliteration intended - that per random draw, Zain had at least as much chance being drawn into the top half of that bracket as he did into the death march where he landed.
At the end of the day, he was clearly top 2/3 in the bracket (giving him 50/50 with the Indian). Even not seeing him compete at 65kg before - 10% was clearly not in the ball park.
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