Is there a better place to go to look at matchups, results and scoring? Sure, their rankings and predictions don’t always pass the sniff test, but it’s still a fantastic resource for fans.
It is fantastic for results - invaluable in that respectIs there a better place to go to look at matchups, results and scoring? Sure, their rankings and predictions don’t always pass the sniff test, but it’s still a fantastic resource for fans.
hey, at least Nick has the highest P4P ELO, that’s pretty cool.
Do you stay away because of the rankings? I understand if you do but think you should check it out again sometime… browse around the site. I’d bet my life you’d love the rest of the site.
Yes......give more weight to recent matches and more weight to head to head matches. For instance...give the winner of a head to head matchup a multiplier such as a number between 1.5 & 2.0 or such. So if the winner of a head to head match is supposed to get 18 points......he now gets 27 or more ( or less ) depending on the relative ranking of the guy he beat head to head. Fix can NOT be ahead of RBY in any remotely sane rubric. It is NOT mathematically hard to shift the allotted percentages. Someone wrestling 2 years....Count the years 42%-58% or such to more heavily weigh the 2nd year. After 3 years....it could be weighted 25%-32%-43% or such. The other problem is starting every "New" wrestler so low that they have to win for YEARS to come even close to those with far more losses because the longer you are "In" their rubric.....the higher you go even if your record isn't as good as those chasing you.....even if they are winning more and defeating the higher ranked wrestler......even multiple times. Comments like " You have to give the wrestlers time.....if they keep winning they will eventually catch up" is just an admission that their Rubric is faulty.The algorithm needs to be adjusted to be less of a lifetime ELO and give more recent results more weight. I think the concept is simple, but the implementation is hard.
Doesn't wrestlestats produce ratings, not rankings? There's a difference.I both critique and defend wrestlestat, but if you have multiple major ranking flaws at the end of a seasion, it raises more than an eyebrow. These are embarrassing.
I think they should shit can ELO period.
I Googled it long ago and there are better algorithms designed for individual head to head events like professional tennis.
But, you see, nationals ended 10 days ago. And, all of the people on here that say making changes to the algorithm is so easy, yet still somehow never do their own, hold Wrestlestat to a different standard.Yes. I also thought I saw that they are going to re-examine them this offseason to adjust for recency and hth.
Just because someone has no interest in designing their own doesn't mean they aren't capable of noticing mistakes / or issues with one in existence. Pointing that nobody seems interested in designing their own doesn't dismiss the reality of the existing quirks.But, you see, nationals ended 10 days ago. And, all of the people on here that say making changes to the algorithm is so easy, yet still somehow never do their own, hold Wrestlestat to a different standard.
The only numbers that should matter.Felt like digging in. Ignore any rounding issues in the math, and also any "me being an idiot" issues in mapping rankings histories to specific weeks, I think I have it directionally correct
In general, very similar climbs and results between RBY and Fix. Both have taken relatively elite losses that wouldn't great impact their score. The difference is some bad losses for RBY
In 2019, Fix's first real ranking was a 1468, which counts some scoring from his redshirt year. By the end of that year, he had lost to Cole Matthews and Suriano, neither of which brought his score down much. Cole Matthews week dropped it by ~11, and he went up overall with his NCAA wins more than offsetting the Suriano loss.
I'll use 1404 as RBY's starting point, with no redshirt season. He took some Fix-equivalent "good" ELO losses to Desanto / Erneste / Lizak as well. Those losses didn't hurt his score much, but also didn't give him the equivalent gains that Fix got by beating Erneste (by major) and Desanto
RBY on the other hand had a bunch of bad ELO losses that year. The losses to Gomez and Thornton were both significant ELO setbacks. If I'm lining weeks up right, the scuffle including the Gomez loss cost him 9 points, and the Thornton loss cost him about 16.
Total 2019 gain for RBY = 94
Total 2019 gain for Fix = 100
So end of 2019:
Fix = 1567
RBY = 1497 (started 64 points down, lost 6 in results)
Seems valid given the results at the time. ELO doesn't really have a "head to head" or "common opponent" adjustment, it's just giving points based on the equivalent rankings at the time.
2020: Fix doesn't wrestle, stays at 1567
2020: RBY gains ~49 points
2021: In 2021, RBY made up about 10 points overall. That all feels generally reasonable given the two seasons. Both undefeated, Fix with only one "good loss" to #2, RBY gets a reasonable gain from beating #1.
2022: RBY makes up about 7 points overall. Very similar to the year before!
So we end up with RBY behind by about 5 points overall in the rankings. The difference there is really the 2019 season where RBY had his overall rankings growth hampered by two losses.
But if you trend it, you clearly see RBY making up 66 out of the 70 points starting in 2020.
Doubt this will change anyone's thinking either way!
It's been pointed, and whined about, to death. Everyone, and I mean everyone, knows the issues. But, here we go again.Just because someone has no interest in designing their own doesn't mean they aren't capable of noticing mistakes / or issues with one in existence. Pointing that nobody seems interested in designing their own doesn't dismiss the reality of the existing quirks.
In the last two 133 finals Fix finished 2nd and RBY finished next to last. Makes total sense.Why wouldn't Fix be ahead of RBY? Fix has only 2 losses in the last 2 full years while RBY has just been undefeated. Fix beat Desanto the last 3 times they have wrestled why RBY has defeated Desanto only 6 consecutive times. Finally in Head to Head matches Fix has only lost twice while RBY only has 2 wins and 2 NCAA Championships. You just don't understand.......it is based on simple math that is just too complicated for us to understand. .