- May 29, 2008
Starts winning with his new troop surge?
Uses a nuclear weapon?
Uses a nuclear weapon?
We have already given our response to the first. Continue to supply Ukraine with superior weapons, but no more. More troops doesn’t change he equation, we all expected Putins first troops would be enough.
Have you noticed how China is allied with Russia? How would China respond if we counter Russia's nuclear attack?No idea. We have a wounded president facing a catastrophic election Putin may very well go nuclear. What can Biden do. The real problem is that china is watching. Is there any doubt that they won’t act on Taiwan before 2024. None. The enemies are moving now because Biden is a compromised idiot placeholder the world is headed to a dark place but we voted for this elections have consequences
Putin has some serious problems. Uzbekistan and Kesykastan, both former Soviet Union enclaves, fought over disputed territory a few years back and Putinstan pit peace keeping troops on the border. Putin pulled most of them out for Ukraine and now the two are shooting at each other again.
And on top of that they have a negative population growth rate so they cannot afford to send their dwindling population of young men to die in a pointless war.They don't have sufficient weaponry for the troops they have now. The newly called up troops will be nothing more than cannon fodder.
So true. It is so bad a couple months ago he directed all the different provinces of Russia to produce a ‘voluntary’ battalion from each one. All that is, except for the ethnic Russian area around Moscow. Can’t afford to lose any blond haired, blue eyed Russian kids.And on top of that they have a negative population growth rate so they cannot afford to send their dwindling population of young men to die in a pointless war.
Even if he only brings up reservists and calls back prior military it will take them until spring to turn 300,000 troops into effective fighting units. Part of the challenge is that they have been using some of the faculty from their military schools already in front line units, so who is going to train/retrain that many troops? It behooves the Ukrainians to keep the pressure on even through the winter before these new units can have an impact on the battlefield.
The Russians may or may not see it but the real boogeyman is not the West - it is China. The Russians cannot maintain territorial control with a declining population. The Chinese play the long game. In time they will peel away territory from the Russians.So true. It is so bad a couple months ago he directed all the different provinces of Russia to produce a ‘voluntary’ battalion from each one. All that is, except for the ethnic Russian area around Moscow. Can’t afford to lose any blond haired, blue eyed Russian kids.
The Ukes don’t have a large enough military to go full out. They need to consolidate their gains before any more major offensives. Resupply, rest tired troops, clear ordinance from captured territory, collect intel from the people. Look for an attempt sometime in Oct before it gets really cold or wet.As Ski pointed out, it will be months before those troops see the front, and God knows where they'll get the necessary equipment and armaments.
It's interesting that the Ukies haven't appeared to aggressively follow up their stunning success in the Kharkiv region. The situation seems to have remained more or less static since then, which equates to an advantage for Russia. Moscow would be happy to stand pat into the winter. For Ukraine, however, this is not a tenable situation long-term.
We know about Russian losses because they've been trumpeted by the propaganda organs on a daily basis. We know much less about Ukraine's losses, but I suspect they've been a lot heavier than is generally realized or admitted.
The problem is this has become strictly a zero-sum game. The off-ramps were long ago closed off. There is no longer any scenario that can be dressed up as a "win" for both sides, which is what you need to get to some kind of deal. In other words, there is now no way out.
Re nukes, I don't see Russia resorting to that in order to "win." However, a desperate attempt to reset the chess board and prevent a disastrous defeat which could bring down the government and fracture the country? I don't think nukes can be ruled out in such a case.
One thing Putin knows: any use of a nuclear weapon...even, say, in some sort of demonstration mode...would cause an instant global panic and send shock waves sufficient to overturn some very comfortable apple carts throughout the West. This is a scenario the Regime wants no part of.
I mean, tough talk and a proxy war are one thing. Blowing up the world is quite another. The nuke threat gives Putin some real leverage, and he knows it. It's his ace card in what has become a poor hand. And my own opinion is he's willing to play it if driven to that point.