What am I Missing

[ryoder1]

Why do all the bowl projections have Wisky in the Rose Bowl? They have to believe Wisky loses to OSU in the B10 championship game which gives them three losses. How do they get there ahead of PSU? Is it because they won the B10 West?

We are projected to Outback or Citrus. If this pans out then that Minny loss really ruined our big bowl hopes. This year's MSU game of '17 and '18 that Franklin has a knack for.

 

[Nittanygrad93]

I doubt that most bowl projections today are much more accurate than the projections that people posted after week 1. I just wish I had figured out a way to make a living posting weekly bowl projections, draft order ratings, or the 10 day weather forecast. Somehow I missed the boat on the careers that pay well for being wrong over 50% of the time, as long as you sound smart when you make your point.

 

[Nittanygrad93]

I doubt that most bowl projections today are much more accurate than the projections that people posted after week 1. I just wish I had figured out a way to make a living posting weekly bowl projections, draft order ratings, or the 10 day weather forecast. Somehow I missed the boat on the careers that pay well for being wrong over 50% of the time, as long as you sound smart when you make your point.

On second thought, people like Heather Dinich make a living giving projections. I guess sounding smart has nothing to do with it. I REALLY missed the boat!

 

[ryoder1]

Yeah. I can't believe these are accurate. Also, how does Florida always weasel into a NY6 game? Why don't they just allow every SEC team with a pulse into NY6 bowl games, ludicrous.

We need the Rose Bowl for program momentum and recruiting. It also says we are somewhat close to OSU (albeit if we lose by 30 this week it doesn't matter). Outback is an insult.

 

[No Name all Game]

All we need to do is take care of business this weekend and things will take care of themselves. As a fan I’m not going to give this game to tOSU until they earn it.

 

[BBrown]

Why do all the bowl projections have Wisky in the Rose Bowl? They have to believe Wisky loses to OSU in the B10 championship game which gives them three losses. How do they get there ahead of PSU? Is it because they won the B10 West?

We are projected to Outback or Citrus. If this pans out then that Minny loss really ruined our big bowl hopes. This year's MSU game of '17 and '18 that Franklin has a knack for.

Can we at least wait until said events actually occur before we light the torches and get the pitchforks?
And just for the hell of it I bet if we look back there were people saying that all Franklin was good for was getting us to the pinstripe bowl.

 

[mrmk5110]

These are the same bowl projections that I have sometimes seen putting us in the Citrus Bowl again, which we know can't/won't happen. Take them with a grain of salt, they have no consequence whatsoever.

They mean as much as power rankings do.

 

[JWB389]

I'm finding that I care less and less about the bowls every year.

 

[psuro]

Yeah. I can't believe these are accurate. Also, how does Florida always weasel into a NY6 game? Why don't they just allow every SEC team with a pulse into NY6 bowl games, ludicrous.

We need the Rose Bowl for program momentum and recruiting. It also says we are somewhat close to OSU (albeit if we lose by 30 this week it doesn't matter). Outback is an insult.

Program momentum and recruiting?

 

[bplionfan]

I'm finding that I care less and less about the bowls every year.

Except of course PSU developed slippery toilet bowls...

 

[LionRange]

Yeah the inclusion of Florida in every single NY6 over us is starting to confuse me more and more

Their best win will be a 11 point home win over a likely 8-4 Auburn . A good win for sure but nothing insane

They will have a 14 point loss at LSU which is ok I guess and a 7 point loss to Georgia at a neutral site

Their other best win besides auburn is... idk really , they don’t have another best win...

They also were extremely unimpressive against the likes of Miami, Kentucky, and South Carolina.

Meanwhile Penn state has wins over 8-2 Michigan who will probably finish 9-3. 7-3 Iowa who will probably finish 9-3. 7-3 Pitt who could finish 9-3 but probably 8-4. And Indiana who will probably finish 8-4.

We have a pretty incredible potential resume. And it will be a joke if Florida is included with their lack of big wins

 

[JWB389]

Except of course PSU developed slippery toilet bowls...

I'm not sure I'll ever benefit from that.

 

[BBG65]

To change the subject a little, I read that Pitt has a realistic shot at the Orange Bowl as the ACC Coastal winner. For that to happen, they have to beat Va. Tech and have the Hokies beat Virginia, both very possible. This is assuming Clemson goes to the CFP. Between Pitt, Virginia and Va. Tech, the Orange Bowl is going to be getting a very weak team.

 

[RTRMR]

The press loves them some SEC!

 

[psu00]

I'm finding that I care less and less about the bowls every year.

I agree. Once the bowls went overboard with reserving spots for certain conferences it just seems to have lost some of the excitement. The matchups the past few years have been less than compelling usually. I miss the days of the reporting of which bowl representatives were seen at PSU (and other) games and where will Penn St go? Now there are so many bowls that they’ve lost their meaning and result in a lot of bad matchups no one cares to see.

 

[Nitwit97]

On second thought, people like Heather Dinich make a living giving projections. I guess sounding smart has nothing to do with it. I REALLY missed the boat!

Does she still have four SEC teams in the playoffs, like her first projection? Lol


Unfortunately, it is tough to see a scenario where we lose this week and are still viewed as the number two Big Ten team, which means no Rose Bowl. And probably no NY6 Bowl as the Orange Bowl is forced to take whatever dreck comes in second place in the ACC (the tallest midget at the circus).

 

[Bobpsu]

Why do all the bowl projections have Wisky in the Rose Bowl? They have to believe Wisky loses to OSU in the B10 championship game which gives them three losses. How do they get there ahead of PSU? Is it because they won the B10 West?

We are projected to Outback or Citrus. If this pans out then that Minny loss really ruined our big bowl hopes. This year's MSU game of '17 and '18 that Franklin has a knack for.

Really.......have an extra axe to grind?

 

[NittanyOpp]

The stupidity is its not who you lost to, its when you lose. If PSU lost two games in late Sept and early Oct but won out they would be in NY6.

Also, my understanding is the committee takes the second highest ranked team from the conference after the B1G championship game. So theres still a chance. I highly doubt Wisconsin losing again to OSU with a loss at Illinois puts them ranked higher than PSU. Minnesota, thats debatable and fair if they do because they beat PSU. But still a 50/50 chance that if Minny beats Wisconsin but gets blown out in Indy that we get Rose at 10-2. And then you have to watch Michigan just in case they pull off a miracle vs OSU and of course even beat IU.

Ultimately, in the Minnesota situation, its what the Rose Bowl wants. So they will tell the committee who they want and the committee will rank accordingly. If Minny and PSU 10-2, Rose Bowl picks and committee rankings will reflect that pick.

Playing Rutgers the last game of the year does two things to hurt us. 1. Doesnt give us one last quality win before final decisions are made 2. Doesnt give us a third bye week during the year everyone else receives, like OSU before our game.

 

[JWB389]

I agree. Once the bowls went overboard with reserving spots for certain conferences it just seems to have lost some of the excitement. The matchups the past few years have been less than compelling usually. I miss the days of the reporting of which bowl representatives were seen at PSU (and other) games and where will Penn St go? Now there are so many bowls that they’ve lost their meaning and result in a lot of bad matchups no one cares to see.

Add to that the players sitting them out. Mark Packer was talking about that last night. He thinks, because of the Tua injury, the days are near that a player/players will decide to sit out of a CFP game.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Yeah the inclusion of Florida in every single NY6 over us is starting to confuse me more and more

Their best win will be a 11 point home win over a likely 8-4 Auburn . A good win for sure but nothing insane

They will have a 14 point loss at LSU which is ok I guess and a 7 point loss to Georgia at a neutral site

Their other best win besides auburn is... idk really , they don’t have another best win...

They also were extremely unimpressive against the likes of Miami, Kentucky, and South Carolina.

Meanwhile Penn state has wins over 8-2 Michigan who will probably finish 9-3. 7-3 Iowa who will probably finish 9-3. 7-3 Pitt who could finish 9-3 but probably 8-4. And Indiana who will probably finish 8-4.

We have a pretty incredible potential resume. And it will be a joke if Florida is included with their lack of big wins

You are right and this was what I was getting at yesterday when I posted resumes from 6 teams w/o the names. Here is that info again though you allude to it above.

Florida

• Won games by an avg of 24.5 pts
• 2 wins by 7 or less
• Played 2 FCS opponents
• 1-0 vs other P5 conferences
• Beat 4 teams with current winning records
• 1-2 vs current top 20 teams
• 12th in Sagarin
• 21.6 FPI (football power index) – 9th
• 11th ranked strength of schedule (played)
• 7th ranked strength of record
• 15th ranked game control

Penn State

• Won games by an avg of 26.4 pts
• 4 wins by 7 or less
• Played 1 FCS opponent
• 1-0 vs other P5 conferences
• Beat 4 teams with current winning records
• 2-1 vs current top 20 teams
• 22.8 FPI (football power index) – 6th
• 9th in Sagarin rankings
• 26th ranked strength of schedule (played)
• 5th ranked strength of record
• 7th ranked game control

If we keep it close vs OSU, our two losses will be comparable to FL though they will have 2 top-5 losses that are respectable. Where I think things differ is that they played 2 FCS teams, only 1 win vs top 20 (Auburn). We are better in strength of record and game control but their strength of schedule (SEC) is much higher than ours. In the end, they will likely get the bonus points. What needs to happen is we need to be at least 3-4 spots ahead of them in tonight's CFP rankings to provide some sort of cushion if/when we lose to OSU so we could fall but still stay ahead of them.

 

[Elwood Blues]

A question mark?

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Does she still have four SEC teams in the playoffs, like her first projection? Lol


Unfortunately, it is tough to see a scenario where we lose this week and are still viewed as the number two Big Ten team, which means no Rose Bowl. And probably no NY6 Bowl as the Orange Bowl is forced to take whatever dreck comes in second place in the ACC (the tallest midget at the circus).

I think it all depends on how we lose to OSU. We will likely fall below Minnesota (assuming the beat NW) in next week's rankings unless they really fall down the rankings. We should still be ahead of Michigan given our win over them unless they crush Indiana and there is a movement on the CFP committee to push them up since they are playing very well right now. With Wisconsin, whether we are ahead or below them may depend on how we lose to OSU. We know how Wisc looked vs OSU so the committee would have some comparisons.

Our spot in the Orange Bowl isn't screwed because of the ACC tie-in, that's no different than the Sugar for Big12/SEC or the Rose for Pac12/B10. Our spot is screwed because the other affiliation is the highest ranked team between SEC/B10/ND. FL is likely to our flank us for that one.

What would help us to get into the NY6 would be getting two SEC teams into the playoffs. That would force their 3rd ranked team to the Sugar and then the 4th could get into the Orange (if they are ranked higher than the highest ranked B10 team) but would leave the Cotton open as an at-large spot.

 

[84Lion]

This link is to the B1G Bowl Selection procedure:

https://bigten.org/documents/2019/10/7//2019_Bowl_Determination_Procedures.pdf?id=6568

For example, the Citrus Bowl rules are:

VRBO CITRUS BOWL(Orlando, Fla.) or CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL (Miami, Fla.)1.When not hosting national semifinal game, the Orange Bowl will select the highest-ranked team from the Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame to face an ACC team. 2.Citrus Bowl will feature at least five different Big Ten schools over six-year agreement.

Over the last five years, the Citrus has had Michigan, Minnesota, and Penn State. So, presumably, those three teams can't be considered for the Citrus (I don't know for sure where this year fits in the "six year agreement" although my understanding is that this is the last year of the agreement).

So that may be why you see Penn State getting bumped down to the Outback bowl as part of the projections.

And yes, given this, it's obvious that the loss to Minnesota hurt Penn State's bowl aspirations. At this point it's either win out and go Rose or maybe a shot at the playoff, or be in contention for a NY6 bowl as a two-loss team...or get bumped down to the Outback.

Oh, and for those keeping score, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa can't go to the Outback, since the 5-team requirement needs to be satisfied and those teams have already been (Iowa twice!) in the past 5 years. Minnesota would probably be a good candidate for the Citrus. Puts Wisconsin and Michigan in interesting spots as well.

 

[rigi11]

Why do all the bowl projections have Wisky in the Rose Bowl? They have to believe Wisky loses to OSU in the B10 championship game which gives them three losses. How do they get there ahead of PSU? Is it because they won the B10 West?

We are projected to Outback or Citrus. If this pans out then that Minny loss really ruined our big bowl hopes. This year's MSU game of '17 and '18 that Franklin has a knack for.

Yep. Success with honor was always bullcht. Empty the jails and Just win baby.

 

[Nitwit97]

Really?
(assuming that PSU can't beat OSU this week)

Wisconsin beats UMinn (as one would expect - Wisconsin will be a solid favorite)…..
And OSU beats Wisconsin (which would be the overwhelming expectation)

And how then would PSU not be the #2 team in the B10?
over a three-loss Wisconsin


Is that "tough to see"?

In your scenario, we would have the same record as Minnesota and they would have a head to head over us. Switch the team names and who would you think advances


Stand by my correct statement. You can call me on it after Dec 8 if we are in the Rose Bowl.

 

[Norm Petersin]

I read PSU vs. Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Mummy to Outback. I stayed at Hiliday Inn Express last night