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OT: USA COVID-19 Vaccination Updates

And the vaccine keeps you from clogging up our health care system and dying , like that 48 year old last week up in Howard outside of State College. He clogged up the health care system then died all because he was t vaxxed. Same for one of my neighbors, 56 YO woman who was an athlete at Penn State back in college.

First they clog, then they swirl. The point of the vaccine is to avoid that scenario over and over and over again.

BTW, just look at the outbreak in the Northern Tier of Pa. several counties with low Vax rates enduring a very long term outbreak at this point t ( weeks bordering on months ).

Some dumb folks never learn.
...or move to Florida...whatever is easier.
 
There is no reason to be clogging the health care system. Give the damn therapudics. BTW my 21 year old son just got it for a day. No one else in family has gotten it. Guess where he got it.....college campus 96% vaxxed.
The problem with “ give the damn therapeutics “ is most of these unvaxxed folks who end up in the hospital are too stupid to pursue getting therapeutics as well. Just dip un ignorant folks unable to care for themselves so they end up clogging up the health care system. The therapeutic therapies are only good in a specific time range. All of these dimwits wait until it’s too late.

BTW, if these morons don't trust the vaccine, why should you expect them to trust other experimental medicines?

Thin the herd.


yes, there is no reason to clog the health care system but the stupid ones do and by and large the stupid ones are unvaxxed. It is what it is.

I have three friends that are vaxxed and had Covid, two have progressive doctors who sent them right away for the monoclonal treatments. of course, these are intelligent folks who have all been vaxxed from the get go and have an interest in their health. ( Not obese, don’t smoke, not diabetic etc. etc and understand science and dont buy into conspiracy theories.
 
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Average age of death.....78. Average age of covid death......78. Flu deaths almost zero. I love when people cherry pick data about some 48 year old they heard die last week, or some 52 year old in the hospital, yet in the past when it happened due to the flu or pneumonia, it wasnt advertised. If people want to get jabbed full of some experimental shot after shot the next 5 years, let them. Don't push it on everyone else.
 
Average age of death.....78. Average age of covid death......78. Flu deaths almost zero. I love when people cherry pick data about some 48 year old they heard die last week, or some 52 year old in the hospital, yet in the past when it happened due to the flu or pneumonia, it wasnt advertised. If people want to get jabbed full of some experimental shot after shot the next 5 years, let them. Don't push it on everyone else.
The anecdotal stuff is nonsense. It means nothing. Zilch. Nada. Anyone can lie about any anecdote they tell.

These anecdotes always further the point of view of the story teller.

Smart people use statistics to describe the probabilities and make rational decisions from there.

That said, calling the vaccine "experimental" is also not very scientific. Everything is "experimental" to some degree or other, especially in the first few years.

It is impossible to know the long term effects at this point. We have good reason to believe that the vaccine provides reasonable benefit (VE about 85% or so against death). Does this mean that a lot of vaxxed people are going to die? Sure. It sure does.

But for the old and vulnerable, the vaccine works pretty well.

Now should it be mandated? Given that it is only mildly contributing to herd immunity, and looks like we will simply have to wait until everyone has natural immunity, there is no case for a vaccine mandate. None.
 
The anecdotal stuff is nonsense. It means nothing. Zilch. Nada. Anyone can lie about any anecdote they tell.

These anecdotes always further the point of view of the story teller.

Smart people use statistics to describe the probabilities and make rational decisions from there.

That said, calling the vaccine "experimental" is also not very scientific. Everything is "experimental" to some degree or other, especially in the first few years.

It is impossible to know the long term effects at this point. We have good reason to believe that the vaccine provides reasonable benefit (VE about 85% or so against death). Does this mean that a lot of vaxxed people are going to die? Sure. It sure does.

But for the old and vulnerable, the vaccine works pretty well.

Now should it be mandated? Given that it is only mildly contributing to herd immunity, and looks like we will simply have to wait until everyone has natural immunity, there is no case for a vaccine mandate. None.
I know you good with numbers, the biggest problem with saying its 85% efficient against death is....99% of people survived anyway. Unless you are telling me that 85% is only in the vulnerable population--if it is thats great news. Back to my earlier anecdote....I know they are for the most part meaningless. However personally I will be anxious to see if my wife, daughter or myself get it this time. We are 99% convinced we had it in Feb 2020 obviously with no tests then you can't be 100% certain. Obviously having a son back from college in the house for 6 days before it got bad enough to test the chances of us not getting it are slim(we were puppy sitting, thought it was allergies). Could our natural antibodies be strong enough to fight it off? Could we have it but not test positive.(we've been doing rapid tests everyday, same one he tested positive with before a PCR confirmed).

Back to my son, he called his track coach and he asked where he thought he got it. He said it would have had to be the track team. They were the only people he was with his last 2 days on campus. The Campus is 96% vaxxed and there are only 2 track athletes not vaxxed. Here's the next problem the trainers don't know what the 7 day protocol is to get back to compete. They have a meet Saturday, NCAA has said you can train at home to get through your protocol. Will be interesting to see how they handle it.
 
I know you good with numbers, the biggest problem with saying its 85% efficient against death is....99% of people survived anyway. Unless you are telling me that 85% is only in the vulnerable population--if it is thats great news. Back to my earlier anecdote....I know they are for the most part meaningless. However personally I will be anxious to see if my wife, daughter or myself get it this time. We are 99% convinced we had it in Feb 2020 obviously with no tests then you can't be 100% certain. Obviously having a son back from college in the house for 6 days before it got bad enough to test the chances of us not getting it are slim(we were puppy sitting, thought it was allergies). Could our natural antibodies be strong enough to fight it off? Could we have it but not test positive.(we've been doing rapid tests everyday, same one he tested positive with before a PCR confirmed).

Back to my son, he called his track coach and he asked where he thought he got it. He said it would have had to be the track team. They were the only people he was with his last 2 days on campus. The Campus is 96% vaxxed and there are only 2 track athletes not vaxxed. Here's the next problem the trainers don't know what the 7 day protocol is to get back to compete. They have a meet Saturday, NCAA has said you can train at home to get through your protocol. Will be interesting to see how they handle it.
85% vaccine effectiveness is for the vulnerable population (age 65+). It's the best I can do. Various calculations give varying results, but the numbers seem to zero in on about 85% effective against death.

For preventing infection and transmission, the vaccine is far less effective. It is more like 60%. There is no question at this point that a fully vaxxed community is STILL going to spread Covid. Really, none. I did a calculation on another thread - seems like the R(t) factor after vaccination is about 3.0 or so. Meaning that it isn't close to not spreading due to vaccination.

But with time, natural immunity is going to put an end to this pandemic. I think we are there in the south after this recent bout. But the northern, and midwest states have another bout to go.
 
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Let's take a look at when the pandemic surged and where, and which states have fared the best/worst. This takes into account the age of the population of various states - so the older states get proportional credit in the denominator.

As you can see, Texas actually is the worst, followed by NJ and NY.

Virginia has done the best.

Cumulative-Death-Rates-for-Larger-States-Age-Adjusted.png
 
Let's take a look at when the pandemic surged and where, and which states have fared the best/worst. This takes into account the age of the population of various states - so the older states get proportional credit in the denominator.

As you can see, Texas actually is the worst, followed by NJ and NY.

Virginia has done the best.

Cumulative-Death-Rates-for-Larger-States-Age-Adjusted.png
Why do you think Texas and Florida have had such steep rises since July 21 when all states were essential flat?
 
Why do you think Texas and Florida have had such steep rises since July 21 when all states were essential flat?
It's pretty well known that the virus spreads via prolonged exposure in enclosed spaces. So, the theory that makes the most sense is that when it is summertime, the South is inside with the A/C, while the North is outside enjoying the weather. Then, as the weather turns, the South goes outside, while the North goes inside.

Look now at how badly things are going in Michigan and Pennsylvania now, while Florida seems to be down to almost zero now.

Michigan-Daily-Deaths.png


Florida especially was a reasonably well vaccinated state at the time. Very much on par with Pennsylvania.

The theory that it was the unvaxxed driving Florida while Pa was sitting at a very low number never made sense and was simply stupid and propagated by media members (who are, almost by definition, stupid, mathematically illiterate people).
 
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It's pretty well known that the virus spreads via prolonged exposure in enclosed spaces. So, the theory that makes the most sense is that when it is summertime, the South is inside with the A/C, while the North is outside enjoying the weather. Then, as the weather turns, the South goes outside, while the North goes inside.

Look now at how badly things are going in Michigan and Pennsylvania now, while Florida seems to be down to almost zero now.

Florida especially was a reasonably well vaccinated state at the time. Very much on par with Pennsylvania.

The theory that it was the unvaxxed driving Florida while Pa was sitting at a very low number never made sense and was simply stupid and propagated by media members (who are, almost by definition, stupid, mathematically illiterate people).

It is tough to guage but also appears that although positive cases are spiking in a lot of Northern areas, we are seeing nowhere near the spiking of fatality to go along with it. Look at a state like New Jersey and they have been below 20 daily fatalities since late May even though daily positives during that time have ranged between 240 per day to 2000 per day but the fatality number really doesn't change.

also the CDC and politicians need to start accepting the fact that these new variants are not like the original Alpha variant that the vaccine basically prevented the vaccinated from getting and transmitting. Now the vaccine basically has maybe a small effect on prevention and transmission but the vaccinated can still get and transmit at high numbers. so the vaccine is now more about protecting yourself from hospitalization and severe reaction to covid and NOT, NOT, NOT about herd immunity and transmission like originally thought. And once you make the simple decision, then most of the mandates and masking, etc..no longer are needed hence why we don't see it.

When somebody can give me any shred of a logical medical reason why a person that tests positive for antibody's from previous infection is not the same as being vaccinated, then and only then will I believe the CDC and politicians are acting in good faith and not out of control.
 
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It is tough to guage but also appears that although positive cases are spiking in a lot of Northern areas, we are seeing nowhere near the spiking of fatality to go along with it. Look at a state like New Jersey and they have been below 20 daily fatalities since late May even though daily positives during that time have ranged between 240 per day to 2000 per day but the fatality number really doesn't change.

also the CDC and politicians need to start accepting the fact that these new variants are not like the original Alpha variant that the vaccine basically prevented the vaccinated from getting and transmitting. Now the vaccine basically has maybe a small effect on prevention and transmission but the vaccinated can still get and transmit at high numbers. so the vaccine is not more about protecting yourself from hospitalization and severe reaction to covid and NOT, NOT, NOT about herd immunity and transmission like originally thought. And once you make the simple decision, then most of the mandates and masking, etc..no longer are needed hence why we don't see it.

When somebody can give me any shred of a logical medical reason why a person that tests positive for antibody's from previous infection is not the same as being vaccinated, then and only then will I believe the CDC and politicians are acting in good faith and not out of control.
New Jersey seems to be doing really well from a "cases to death" ratio.

But Michigan death toll right now is about 75/day, whereas the absolute peak before was about 135/day....so Michigan is in a tough spot now.
 
It is tough to guage but also appears that although positive cases are spiking in a lot of Northern areas, we are seeing nowhere near the spiking of fatality to go along with it. Look at a state like New Jersey and they have been below 20 daily fatalities since late May even though daily positives during that time have ranged between 240 per day to 2000 per day but the fatality number really doesn't change.

also the CDC and politicians need to start accepting the fact that these new variants are not like the original Alpha variant that the vaccine basically prevented the vaccinated from getting and transmitting. Now the vaccine basically has maybe a small effect on prevention and transmission but the vaccinated can still get and transmit at high numbers. so the vaccine is not more about protecting yourself from hospitalization and severe reaction to covid and NOT, NOT, NOT about herd immunity and transmission like originally thought. And once you make the simple decision, then most of the mandates and masking, etc..no longer are needed hence why we don't see it.

When somebody can give me any shred of a logical medical reason why a person that tests positive for antibody's from previous infection is not the same as being vaccinated, then and only then will I believe the CDC and politicians are acting in good faith and not out of control.
The day anyone in the Biden adminstration admits that the vaccines aren't going to end covid hell will freeze over. There is literally no reason any one that is healthy should get the shot or booster right now. You saw how well its done against delta and they actually think it will do anything against the new one? So what Biden do....double down. Push more booster, push more businesses to require vaccines. I mean most of the media are inept at best. They won't admit they are wrong either. The good news...the FDA will fast track any changes made to the vaccines...oh boy by the time they get here there will be another varient. Maybe they should try an old fashion vaccine.
 
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The day anyone in the Biden adminstration admits that the vaccines aren't going to end covid hell will freeze over. There is literally no reason any one that is healthy should get the shot or booster right now. You saw how well its done against delta and they actually think it will do anything against the new one? So what Biden do....double down. Push more booster, push more businesses to require vaccines. I mean most of the media are inept at best. They won't admit they are wrong either. The good news...the FDA will fast track any changes made to the vaccines...oh boy by the time they get here there will be another varient. Maybe they should try an old fashion vaccine.
Since this virus in its various strains is going to be around long after we're gone, people are going to continue to contract it, just like other viruses through history, and no vaccine, which is just a therapeutic, or mask wearing or staying in a basement is going to eradicate it. Therefore, the number of people who test positive for this is frankly irrelevant now. What is relevant is whether there are treatments and therapeutics that can control its effects adequately, which there obviously are. Thus, the obsession with this needs to end.

Unfortunately, every year, there are going to be a certain number of people who are going to contract this virus and die from it; that's reality. However, just like with the Spanish influenza, which still is around, more and more people with every passing year will develop an immunity to it.
 
It's pretty well known that the virus spreads via prolonged exposure in enclosed spaces. So, the theory that makes the most sense is that when it is summertime, the South is inside with the A/C, while the North is outside enjoying the weather. Then, as the weather turns, the South goes outside, while the North goes inside.

Look now at how badly things are going in Michigan and Pennsylvania now, while Florida seems to be down to almost zero now.

Michigan-Daily-Deaths.png


Florida especially was a reasonably well vaccinated state at the time. Very much on par with Pennsylvania.

The theory that it was the unvaxxed driving Florida while Pa was sitting at a very low number never made sen
It's pretty well known that the virus spreads via prolonged exposure in enclosed spaces. So, the theory that makes the most sense is that when it is summertime, the South is inside with the A/C, while the North is outside enjoying the weather. Then, as the weather turns, the South goes outside, while the North goes inside.

Look now at how badly things are going in Michigan and Pennsylvania now, while Florida seems to be down to almost zero now.

Michigan-Daily-Deaths.png


Florida especially was a reasonably well vaccinated state at the time. Very much on par with Pennsylvania.

The theory that it was the unvaxxed driving Florida while Pa was sitting at a very low number never made sense and was simply stupid and propagated by media members (who are, almost by definition, stupid, mathematically i
se and was simply stupid and propagated by media members (who are, almost by definition, stupid, mathematically illiterate people).
It's pretty well known that the virus spreads via prolonged exposure in enclosed spaces. So, the theory that makes the most sense is that when it is summertime, the South is inside with the A/C, while the North is outside enjoying the weather. Then, as the weather turns, the South goes outside, while the North goes inside.

Look now at how badly things are going in Michigan and Pennsylvania now, while Florida seems to be down to almost zero now.

Michigan-Daily-Deaths.png


Florida especially was a reasonably well vaccinated state at the time. Very much on par with Pennsylvania.

The theory that it was the unvaxxed driving Florida while Pa was sitting at a very low number never made sense and was simply stupid and propagated by media members (who are, almost by definition, stupid, mathematically illiterate people).
So basically it's the same pattern as last year, which probably will be the same pattern for every year.
 
something crazy......

December 2, 2020 -- Daily 7-day average for positives was 169,690, 7-day average for fatality was 1910.

December 2, 2021 -- Daily 7-day average for positives is 93,680, 7-day average for fatality is 937.

So 93,680/169,690 = 55% of daily positive compared to last year.

So 937/1910 = 49% of daily fatality compared to last year.

Last year at this time we had no vaccinations, the total cases have also gone from 15M to 50M per the data. So an incremental 35M people have tested positive (with some percent of them having natural antibodies).

So when I look at those numbers, the vaccinations (and all the additional exposures with natural antibody's) have done nothing? We are at half the cases and half the death total.

What am I missing?
 
something crazy......

December 2, 2020 -- Daily 7-day average for positives was 169,690, 7-day average for fatality was 1910.

December 2, 2021 -- Daily 7-day average for positives is 93,680, 7-day average for fatality is 937.

So 93,680/169,690 = 55% of daily positive compared to last year.

So 937/1910 = 49% of daily fatality compared to last year.

Last year at this time we had no vaccinations, the total cases have also gone from 15M to 50M per the data. So an incremental 35M people have tested positive (with some percent of them having natural antibodies).

So when I look at those numbers, the vaccinations (and all the additional exposures with natural antibody's) have done nothing? We are at half the cases and half the death total.

What am I missing?

Delta, the dominant variant since last March, is more contageous and less lethal than the original Alpha.
 
Delta, the dominant variant since last March, is more contageous and less lethal than the original Alpha.
And that's why the number of present cases is irrelevant now. It appears as if subsequent strains are more easily contracted but less deadly, which basically means that this virus, as it mutates, and it always was going to mutate, is behaving like all viruses when they mutate.
 
Delta, the dominant variant since last March, is more contageous and less lethal than the original Alpha.

but that is not what the data says.

93680/937 = 1 fatality per 100 positive cases using today's numbers.

169690/1910 = 1 fatality per 88 positive cases using last years numbers

so 13% less fatality per case rate which is within the margin of error of how many people are actually getting tested and reported as positive. And that is shocking considering 70% of the population is vaccinated which is supposed to make the fatality numbers go way, way, way down. But we are not seeing that based on the above. You would think with 70% of the population vaccinated (and all the deaths due to Covid already, ie...the dry timber theory) that the fatality per positive would be an order of magnitude different more in the 1 fatality per 500 to 1000 cases, not 1 per 100 cases.
 
something crazy......

December 2, 2020 -- Daily 7-day average for positives was 169,690, 7-day average for fatality was 1910.

December 2, 2021 -- Daily 7-day average for positives is 93,680, 7-day average for fatality is 937.

So 93,680/169,690 = 55% of daily positive compared to last year.

So 937/1910 = 49% of daily fatality compared to last year.

Last year at this time we had no vaccinations, the total cases have also gone from 15M to 50M per the data. So an incremental 35M people have tested positive (with some percent of them having natural antibodies).

So when I look at those numbers, the vaccinations (and all the additional exposures with natural antibody's) have done nothing? We are at half the cases and half the death total.

What am I missing?
The big problem with the numbers is the daily positivity numbers. It's soooo dependent upon human behavior. Death, now that's another thing - you can't say that you don't want to go to the morgue when you're dead. So deaths are only subject to miscoding, surely a much smaller error percentage.

Imagine that early on, when it was fear porn deluxe, everyone was going and getting tested. Got a sniffle, get tested. Got a bum ankle, get tested for Covid. Now, I think people are just tired of it, and they're not going to get tested as often.

But that said, something is wrong with what we are being told.

If the daily positive numbers are indicative of the degree of spread of the disease, what it would mean is that really, once you're infected, the vaccines are doing almost nothing. That's the conclusion you would draw.

But as I noted above, I think there are a LOT more people who get infected, and just don't go get tested. They're just tired of it, and will wait for natural recovery.

Now, data I've used says the vaccine is about 85% effective against death. But we are STILL averaging about 1200 deaths per day, when the prior peak was about 3000 deaths per day. But all of the dead people are over age 65+. They're vaccinated at almost 90%.

So, one of two things (or a combination) must be true:

1. A lot more people have contracted Covid this time around, they're just not getting tested, and so the vaccine is still 85% effective, but a lot of people x 15% can still equal 1200 deaths per day.

2. The vaccine just is not really 85% effective against death.

I hope it is point 1, because that means herd immunity is almost here.

1. A lot more people have contracted Covid this time around than the daily case numbers would indicate.
 
but that is not what the data says.

93680/937 = 1 fatality per 100 positive cases using today's numbers.

169690/1910 = 1 fatality per 88 positive cases using last years numbers

so 13% less fatality per case rate which is within the margin of error of how many people are actually getting tested and reported as positive. And that is shocking considering 70% of the population is vaccinated which is supposed to make the fatality numbers go way, way, way down. But we are not seeing that based on the above. You would think with 70% of the population vaccinated (and all the deaths due to Covid already, ie...the dry timber theory) that the fatality per positive would be an order of magnitude different more in the 1 fatality per 500 to 1000 cases, not 1 per 100 cases.
Statistically speaking, all the deaths occur in the 65+ age group. That age group is more than 85% vaccinated. So, yes, something just isn't right.
 
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Statistically speaking, all the deaths occur in the 65+ age group. That age group is more than 85% vaccinated. So, yes, something just isn't right.
exactly. So either the vaccines are doing about nothing or pretty much everybody dying are very sick people that had a life expectancy of less than 6 months and were essentially on their death bed.
 
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There’s nothing different here from the way they coded COVID-19 deaths in 2020, before the so-called vaccines, aka experimental mRNA jabs were around. The Wuhan China virus is not a big deal (it’s real but it’s simply a man made coronavirus and blended in among many other coronaviruses now ) and neither are the so-called delta, omicron variants that they are pretending exist and can measure/test for. It’s just a continuation of the psychological/biological warfare unleashed by the elite globalists trying to enact their Great Reset, as part of their new world order plans. The big difference are the vaccine mandates now that Big Pharma’s deadly vaccines are in play. It’s the fully vaccinated & subsequent boosters people are taking that are now in trouble.
 
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There’s nothing different here from the way they coded COVID-19 deaths in 2020, before the so-called vaccines, aka experimental mRNA jabs were around. The Wuhan China virus is not a big deal and neither are the so-called delta, omicron variants that they are pretending exist and can test for. It’s just a continuation of the psychological/biological warfare unleashed by the elite globalists trying to enact their Great Reset, as part of their new world order plans. The big difference are the vaccine mandates now that Big Pharma’s deadly vaccines are in play. It’s the fully vaccinated & subsequent boosters people ate taking that are now in trouble.
All the data suggests that the vaccines are working reasonably well at reducing death.

I agree with you that authoritarians are gonna take advantage of every opportunity to be authoritarian.

But the virus is real, the deaths are real, it is the reaction to it that has been dishonest.
 
Are you done with updates Cletus?? If so, thanks for all you have done in this thread. It was much appreciated.
 
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Are you done with updates Cletus?? If so, thanks for all you have done in this thread. It was much appreciated.

Between Thanksgiving and some hunting I was out for a while. Might start back up next week.

Basically we are seeing a surge now in the Northeast similar to last year. Boosters being pushed very hard to the point of being made mandatory I am pretty sure in the very near future. Still very political as watching CNN they are now going to new talking points since the vaccinate rate is so high now. All the talk is on how it should be required to prove vaccine status to fly domestically and how come we make it mandatory for international passengers and not domestic. Of course, no discussion on the Southern Border and no testing and no discussion around how domestic flight are over 50M passengers vs 5M for international so order of magnitude difference and logistically would be nearly impossible to do that on domestic flights.

And the other big talking point is how until the entire world is vaccinated nothing will change as these variants will keep coming out of Africa and Asia. One doctor went as far as to say he cannot understand how we could vaccinate the USA so quickly but are not looking to do the same in Africa and Asia. Again, vaccinated 250M people in a single country like the USA is simple compared to trying to vaccinate 3 BILLION people in dozens of very poor countries. So again, we are going back to ideologues coming up with new talking points.

I did hear finally a doctor talk about how we need to STOP talking about vaccines and stopping transmission and need to talk about vaccines in keeping people out of the hospital as that is all a virus type vaccine is going to be able to do.
 
Between Thanksgiving and some hunting I was out for a while. Might start back up next week.

Basically we are seeing a surge now in the Northeast similar to last year. Boosters being pushed very hard to the point of being made mandatory I am pretty sure in the very near future. Still very political as watching CNN they are now going to new talking points since the vaccinate rate is so high now. All the talk is on how it should be required to prove vaccine status to fly domestically and how come we make it mandatory for international passengers and not domestic. Of course, no discussion on the Southern Border and no testing and no discussion around how domestic flight are over 50M passengers vs 5M for international so order of magnitude difference and logistically would be nearly impossible to do that on domestic flights.

And the other big talking point is how until the entire world is vaccinated nothing will change as these variants will keep coming out of Africa and Asia. One doctor went as far as to say he cannot understand how we could vaccinate the USA so quickly but are not looking to do the same in Africa and Asia. Again, vaccinated 250M people in a single country like the USA is simple compared to trying to vaccinate 3 BILLION people in dozens of very poor countries. So again, we are going back to ideologues coming up with new talking points.

I did hear finally a doctor talk about how we need to STOP talking about vaccines and stopping transmission and need to talk about vaccines in keeping people out of the hospital as that is all a virus type vaccine is going to be able to do.
CNN has become a disgrace in every conceivable way. I can't imagine that Ted Turner ever thought that this is what his creation would become.
 
Between Thanksgiving and some hunting I was out for a while. Might start back up next week.

Basically we are seeing a surge now in the Northeast similar to last year. Boosters being pushed very hard to the point of being made mandatory I am pretty sure in the very near future. Still very political as watching CNN they are now going to new talking points since the vaccinate rate is so high now. All the talk is on how it should be required to prove vaccine status to fly domestically and how come we make it mandatory for international passengers and not domestic. Of course, no discussion on the Southern Border and no testing and no discussion around how domestic flight are over 50M passengers vs 5M for international so order of magnitude difference and logistically would be nearly impossible to do that on domestic flights.

And the other big talking point is how until the entire world is vaccinated nothing will change as these variants will keep coming out of Africa and Asia. One doctor went as far as to say he cannot understand how we could vaccinate the USA so quickly but are not looking to do the same in Africa and Asia. Again, vaccinated 250M people in a single country like the USA is simple compared to trying to vaccinate 3 BILLION people in dozens of very poor countries. So again, we are going back to ideologues coming up with new talking points.

I did hear finally a doctor talk about how we need to STOP talking about vaccines and stopping transmission and need to talk about vaccines in keeping people out of the hospital as that is all a virus type vaccine is going to be able to do.
The border thing is such a disaster. My daughters elementary school as well as the middle and HS for our area have had huge outbreaks the last 3 weeks. Over 50 kids test + and hundreds more as close contacts like my daughter. At least one local death can be attributed it as well.

I asked her the day I got the call to go get her and quarantine, I asked her who was absent in class and she said the only one was the new kid who talked funny (spanish). It was the kid from the family that was from central america and dropped off in our school because we live in a sanctuary county. The least they could do is give all of these people the vax and wait two weeks before sending them all over the country but....


PLus I got invited to an NIH Christmas party next weekend at my friend who is a Dr there. No masks needed and not checking anyones vax status.....
 
Cletus,
Love your stuff. One of the few sets of data I trust anymore. Clearly "breakthroughs" are not really breakthroughs anymore but much more common. Would love any data around the "crazy" statement you made the other day that seemed to say the death to case ratio isn't changing much. As a guy vaccinated and boostered that was not great news.
 
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I did hear finally a doctor talk about how we need to STOP talking about vaccines and stopping transmission and need to talk about vaccines in keeping people out of the hospital as that is all a virus type vaccine is going to be able to do.
This is what should have been saying all along. The problem is they knew it the whole time. Had they said this half the people under 40 who got the shot would not have. And there is abolsutely no reason to continue to give it to kids without underlying condtions. The question then becomes how frequently do you need a shot to stay out of the hospital for those in jeopardy.
 
Odds of re-infection of Omicron variant - about 1% in a month. Not great, but not terrible. This is 2.5 times more than Beta, and Delta waves.

Results 35,670 suspected reinfections were identified among 2,796,982 individuals with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 who had a positive test result at least 90 days prior to 27 November 2021. The number of reinfections observed through the end of the third wave was consistent with the null model of no change in reinfection risk (approach 1). Although increases in the hazard of primary infection were observed following the introduction of both the Beta and Delta variants, no corresponding increase was observed in the reinfection hazard (approach 2). Contrary to expectation, the estimated hazard ratio for reinfection versus primary infection was lower during waves driven by the Beta and Delta variants than for the first wave (relative hazard ratio for wave 2 versus wave 1: 0.75 (CI95: 0.59–0.97); for wave 3 versus wave 1: 0.71 (CI95: 0.56–0.92)). In contrast, the recent spread of the Omicron variant has been associated with a decrease in the hazard coefficient for primary infection and an increase in reinfection hazard coefficient. The estimated hazard ratio for reinfection versus primary infection for the period from 1 November 2021 to 27 November 2021 versus wave 1 was 2.39 (CI95: 1.88–3.11).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.11.21266068v2.full-text
 
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The data, yet to be published in a peer-reviewed medical journal, shows that the companies' treatment, sotrovimab, is effective against all 37 identified mutations to date in the spike protein, GSK said in a statement.
 
Odds of re-infection of Omicron variant - about 1% in a month. Not great, but not terrible. This is 2.5 times more than alpha, and Delta waves.

Results 35,670 suspected reinfections were identified among 2,796,982 individuals with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 who had a positive test result at least 90 days prior to 27 November 2021. The number of reinfections observed through the end of the third wave was consistent with the null model of no change in reinfection risk (approach 1). Although increases in the hazard of primary infection were observed following the introduction of both the Beta and Delta variants, no corresponding increase was observed in the reinfection hazard (approach 2). Contrary to expectation, the estimated hazard ratio for reinfection versus primary infection was lower during waves driven by the Beta and Delta variants than for the first wave (relative hazard ratio for wave 2 versus wave 1: 0.75 (CI95: 0.59–0.97); for wave 3 versus wave 1: 0.71 (CI95: 0.56–0.92)). In contrast, the recent spread of the Omicron variant has been associated with a decrease in the hazard coefficient for primary infection and an increase in reinfection hazard coefficient. The estimated hazard ratio for reinfection versus primary infection for the period from 1 November 2021 to 27 November 2021 versus wave 1 was 2.39 (CI95: 1.88–3.11).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.11.21266068v2.full-text

Have you found any data on re-infection due to previous natural Covid infection. If you remember, there was the ludicrous statements made early on that natural infection antibodies were NOT as good as the vaccine and did not provide very good protection (along with the Wuhan lab leak not being the source probably the most ludicrous main stream media/CDC lie in all of this). We have not heard that stated in a long time and I suspect that people that have antibodies from the original infection are actually now more highly protected against variants as they come along as the bodies natural immune system is programmed through millennia to be able to detect variants.

I guess the only thing really to understand with Omicron is if it is more infectious, what is the level of virulence or potency of the infection. Typically variants become more contagious and less virulent as they progress but Covid seems to not be that way (another reason the lab leak theory makes sense). Is Omicron finally the variant that is less virulent. In the grand scheme of things, if Omicron is 2.5x as contagious but 33% less virulent, that might be a good thing as then you start to really get natural immunity going as everybody will be infected in short order such that natural antibodies will finally take over.
 
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Have you found any data on re-infection due to previous natural Covid infection. If you remember, there was the ludicrous statements made early on that natural infection antibodies were NOT as good as the vaccine and did not provide very good protection (along with the Wuhan lab leak not being the source probably the most ludicrous main stream media/CDC lie in all of this). We have not heard that stated in a long time and I suspect that people that have antibodies from the original infection are actually now more highly protected against variants as they come along as the bodies natural immune system is programmed through millennia to be able to detect variants.

I guess the only thing really to understand with Omicron is if it is more infectious, what is the level of virulence or potency of the infection. Typically variants become more contagious and less virulent as they progress but Covid seems to not be that way (another reason the lab leak theory makes sense). Is Omicron finally the variant that is less virulent. In the grand scheme of things, if Omicron is 2.5x as contagious but 33% less virulent, that might be a good thing as then you start to really get natural immunity going as everybody will be infected in short order such that natural antibodies will finally take over.
Yes. All non-Walensky studies show the following result. Here's one out of Italy. We can trust them, I think. Basically, infection is about 92% effective against re-infection.

Italy Study

Results
The baseline demographic characteristics are shown in the Table. The median (interquartile range) age of the patients was 59 (40-78) years, but positive cases were older and geographically distributed more in the industrial area of Legnano.

During the follow-up (mean [SD], 280 [41] days) 5 reinfections (0.31%; 95% CI, 0.03%-0.58%) were confirmed in the cohort of 1579 positive patients. Most of these patients were evaluated, treated, and followed in hospitals or dedicated COVID-19 ambulatories.6 Only 1 was hospitalized, and 4 patients had a close relationship (2 patients work in hospitals, 1 patient underwent transfusions every week, and 1 patient retired in a nursing home) with health facilities. The mean (SD) interval between primary infection and reinfection was longer than 230 (90) days.

Of 13 496 persons who initially were not infected with SARS-CoV-2, 528 (3.9%; 95% CI, 3.5%-4.2%) subsequently developed a primary infection. The incidence density per 100 000 person days was 1.0 (95% CI, 0.5-1.5) for reinfections compared with 15.1 (95% CI, 14.5-15.7) for new infections, while the incidence rate ratio adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, and the sanitarian area was 0.07 (95% CI, 0.06-0.08). After analyzing the cumulative incidence during follow-up, we confirmed that the 2 cohorts were significantly different (hazard ratio, 0.06; 95% CI, 0.05-0.08; log-rank test P < .001) (Figure).
 
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Yes. All non-Walensky studies show the following result. Here's one out of Italy. We can trust them, I think. Basically, infection is about 92% effective against re-infection.

Italy Study

Results
The baseline demographic characteristics are shown in the Table. The median (interquartile range) age of the patients was 59 (40-78) years, but positive cases were older and geographically distributed more in the industrial area of Legnano.

During the follow-up (mean [SD], 280 [41] days) 5 reinfections (0.31%; 95% CI, 0.03%-0.58%) were confirmed in the cohort of 1579 positive patients. Most of these patients were evaluated, treated, and followed in hospitals or dedicated COVID-19 ambulatories.6 Only 1 was hospitalized, and 4 patients had a close relationship (2 patients work in hospitals, 1 patient underwent transfusions every week, and 1 patient retired in a nursing home) with health facilities. The mean (SD) interval between primary infection and reinfection was longer than 230 (90) days.

Of 13 496 persons who initially were not infected with SARS-CoV-2, 528 (3.9%; 95% CI, 3.5%-4.2%) subsequently developed a primary infection. The incidence density per 100 000 person days was 1.0 (95% CI, 0.5-1.5) for reinfections compared with 15.1 (95% CI, 14.5-15.7) for new infections, while the incidence rate ratio adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, and the sanitarian area was 0.07 (95% CI, 0.06-0.08). After analyzing the cumulative incidence during follow-up, we confirmed that the 2 cohorts were significantly different (hazard ratio, 0.06; 95% CI, 0.05-0.08; log-rank test P < .001) (Figure).

From that study.... "However, the observation ended before SARS-CoV-2 variants began to spread, and it is unknown how well natural immunity to the wild-type virus will protect against variants."
 
From that study.... "However, the observation ended before SARS-CoV-2 variants began to spread, and it is unknown how well natural immunity to the wild-type virus will protect against variants."
The other post above that one indicates that Beta and Delta had no impact on natural immunity probability curve.

That same post says that Omicron does evade natural immunity about 2.5x more often than prior variants.
 
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The other post above that one indicates that Beta and Delta had no impact on natural immunity probability curve.

That some post says that Omicron does evade natural immunity about 2.5x more often than prior variants.

I haven't searched recently for studies like that, is that the first study you've seen that addresses natural immunity effectiveness between variants?
 
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