OT: USA COVID-19 Vaccination Updates
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
I’m still seeing a lot of people wearing masks in NEW. JERSEY., inside and outside. Adults and kids.
I've noticed this as well in NJ. It seems people were slowly unmasking but now they are all back on. I feel like I'm the rare person maskless these days. However the governor is strongly urging people to mask indoors again without mandating it so I guess some are just following his wishes.
Going to be fun in Jersey this week with Guns N Roses at Metlife Thursday night and Limp Bizkit at the Stone Pony Friday. Lots of large gatherings I'm looking forward to.
0.468M shots yesterday so total up to 346.4M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.673M. 86.7% of shots administered is the national average, 57.8% of population with 1+ dose (74.4% of the adult population), 49.7% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 192 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 165 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
56,369 positives reported yesterday compared to 52,475 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 81,300.
Fatality was 213 reported yesterday compared to 177 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 350.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 35,236 compared to yesterday 7-day average at 35,457 compared to one week ago 26,508 up 32.9%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 6,266 compared yesterday 7-day average of 6,244 compared to one week ago 4,688 up 32.8%.
So for hosptilizations, since they are probably the best daily barometer now, I will start to report the 7-day rolling average of today vs. yesterday and one week ago. That way we should be able to see when the case load shoiuld start to come down when we see day over day hospitalizations start to go down.
And for some people asking about the numbers, yesterday the daily positive as noted in the post above was 21,768 and daily fatality was 64. When I look today, since many states report again starting on Tuesday (Monday data) the daily positive for sunday is now 56,031 and fatality is 165. Now tomorrow when the rest of the states report, those number will probably creep up even a little more. That is why some days numbers cannot be compared to the previous week very well.
On another topic, hearing some information from friend's of friend's type of thing that a lot more UN vaccinated HEALTHY people are ending up in the hospital with severe issues this time around. We know in the past year plus, that basically almost everybody who ended up with severe symptoms or dying had a co-morbidity or was over 75 (even if healthy we know that immune system starts to degrade sometime in your late 60's). Not sure since the data really doesn't exist much at all, but is it possible now this Delta variant it hitting the under 50 healthy crowd much harder then the original variant (and other variants to date). As most know, I am just searching for the data and truth to make informed decisions for myself, family, and friends.
Anybody know where data can be found that can confirm or refute the above.
Anybody know where data can be found that can confirm or refute the above.
0.453M shots yesterday so total up to 347.4M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.681M. 86.7% of shots administered is the national average, 57.9% of population with 1+ dose (74.5% of the adult population), 49.7% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 192 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 165 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
104,578 positives reported yesterday compared to 81,807 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 91,026.
Fatality was 516 reported yesterday compared to 360 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 389.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 40,453 compared to yesterday 7-day average at 35,236 compared to one week ago 28,016 up 44.4%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 7,047 compared yesterday 7-day average of 6,266 compared to one week ago 4,939 up 42.7%.
Daily Positives by highest states....Florida-17,001, Texas-14,873, California-10,010, Georgia-9,197, Louisiana-4,753, Illinois-2,682, Tennessee-2,677, Missouri-2,640, Arkansas-2,343, North Carolina-2,188, South Carolina-2,091
Obviously still on the upward swing, the 104,578 is a localized all time high and hasn't been seen since February when we were on the downswing of the big spike. Fatality starting to come up now at an average of 389. Just like UK and Israel, we should not come close to 1,000-3,000 death per day of the big spike but I suspect we could get up to the 500 mark in the next couple of week as we know the fatality number trails the daily positive by about 3 weeks.
Also start to read and hear some issues in Florida with lack of ICU units for patients. Some Florida hospitals are basically full with Covid patients and turning people away. Not a good scene down there from what I gather from some people I know in Florida.
0.725M shots yesterday so total up to 348.1M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.677M. 86.7% of shots administered is the national average, 58.0% of population with 1+ dose (74.7% of the adult population), 49.8% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 193 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 165 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
112,279 positives reported yesterday compared to 86,823 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 96,742.
Fatality was 656 reported yesterday compared to 418 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 389.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 42,938 compared to yesterday 7-day average at 40,453 compared to one week ago 29,601 up 45.1%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 7,348 compared yesterday 7-day average of 7,047 compared to one week ago 5,207 up 41.1%.
0.864M shots yesterday so total up to 348.9M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.699M. 86.7% of shots administered is the national average, 58.2% of population with 1+ dose (74.9% of the adult population), 49.9% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 193 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 166 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
120,945 positives reported yesterday compared to 98,937 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 100,236.
Fatality was 559 reported yesterday compared to 422 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 440.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 44,865 compared to yesterday 7-day average at 42,938 compared to one week ago 31,331 up 43.2%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 7,707 compared yesterday 7-day average of 7,348 compared to one week ago 5,506 up 40.0%.
Florida-20133, Texas-14173, Cali-11725, Georgia-5806, Louisana-5468, North Carolina-4331, Missouri-3946, New York-3390, Tennessee-3292, Mississippi-3164, Illinois-3048, Washington-2911, South Carolina-2835, Arkansas-2777
0.84M shots yesterday so total up to 350.6M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.712M. 86.2% of shots administered is the national average, 58.5% of population with 1+ dose (75.4% of the adult population), 50.1% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 194 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 166 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
68,950 positives reported yesterday compared to 94,182 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 101,741.
Fatality was 320 reported yesterday compared to 394 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 478.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 49,588 compared to yesterday 7-day average at 47,388 compared to one week ago 35,013 up 41.6%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 8,424 compared yesterday 7-day average of 8,073 compared to one week ago 6,104 up 38.0%.
Pretty horrible week for the numbers. Still on the massive growth curve. About 35 or so days into the spike, other countries spikes before us lasted 40-50 days so hopefully just another week or so here in USA. Would really like to see this upcoming week numbers start to plateau, just don't have a good feeling that is going to happen. Vaccinations number still remaining relatively high and now up over 700k average per day.
0.774M shots yesterday so total up to 351.4M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.706M. 86.4% of shots administered is the national average, 58.7% of population with 1+ dose (75.6% of the adult population), 50.1% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 195 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 166 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
24,390 positives reported yesterday compared to 78,462 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 94,016.
Fatality was 129 reported yesterday compared to 219 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 465.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 50,502 compared to yesterday 7-day average at 49,588 compared to one week ago 36,952 up 36.7%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 8,506 compared yesterday 7-day average of 8,424 compared to one week ago 6,467 up 31.5%.
Reminder that Monday report based on Sunday's numbers is never correct as so many states don't report.
0.532M shots yesterday so total up to 351.9M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.715M. 86.5% of shots administered is the national average, 58.8% of population with 1+ dose (75.7% of the adult population), 50.2% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 195 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 167 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
102,375 positives reported yesterday compared to 79,645 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 116,503.
Fatality was 326 reported yesterday compared to 288 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 506.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 49,586 compared to yesterday 7-day average at 50,502 compared to one week ago 38,987 up 27.2%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 8,308 compared yesterday 7-day average of 8,506 compared to one week ago 6,808 up 22.0%.
So Florida right now just completely insane and out of control. Daily average cases is 22,484. The highest average during the huge January peak was only 15,900. Fatality average is 113, beginning of July it was 24!
I don't know how to embed a graph but I know some people know how and if the could please post from worldometer the daily positives and death chart from Florida just so people can see how crazy it is down there.
On the good news front.....the rate of increase in hospitalizations is down meaning maybe we have reached the inflection point, will be interesting to track that the next few days.
0.618M shots yesterday so total up to 352.5M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.739M. 86.5% of shots administered is the national average, 58.9% of population with 1+ dose (75.9% of the adult population), 50.3% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 196 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 167 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
101,254positives reported yesterday compared to 116,649 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 116,503.
Fatality was 657 reported yesterday compared to 531 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 535.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 55,779 compared to yesterday 7-day average at 49,586 compared to one week ago 41,029 up 36.0%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 9,304 compared yesterday 7-day average of 8,308 compared to one week ago 7,0294 up 31.0%.
So the hospital numbers make no sense. We are at 9,304 admissions per day. The last time we were at this level for admissions was February 9th where we are not even vaccinated out the 75+ and older crowd yet. The daily positives on February 9th were 107,000 so nearly identical to what they are now. So somehow even though we are massively more vaccinated including nearly all of the people that have co-morbidity and older population, we have no difference in hospital admissions today then when we were just starting to get vaccinated.
Anybody hazard a reason how this could be true?
0.655M shots yesterday so total up to 353.2M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.729M. 86.5% of shots administered is the national average, 59.1% of population with 1+ dose (76.1% of the adult population), 50.3% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 196 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 167 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
144,635 positives reported yesterday compared to 118,423 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 123,387.
Fatality was 614 reported yesterday compared to 532 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 488.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 59,172 compared to yesterday 7-day average at 55,779 compared to one week ago 43,244 up 36.8%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 9,712 compared yesterday 7-day average of 9,304 compared to one week ago 7,397 up 31.3%.
Florida-24573, Texas-17612, California-12254, Georgia-6958, Louisiana-5407, North Carolina-4963, New York-4384, Missouri-4213, Tennessee-4097, Illinois-3933, Washington-2454, Ohio-3393, Mississippi-6163, Arkansas-2940, Kentucky-2920, South Carolina-2649, Indiana-2458, Oklahoma-2199, Virginia-2117, Arizona-1970
0.69M shots yesterday so total up to 353.8M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.681M. 86.2% of shots administered is the national average, 59.2% of population with 1+ dose (76.2% of the adult population), 50.4% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 197million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 167 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
143,537 positives reported yesterday compared to 128,002 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 125,557.
Fatality was 660 reported yesterday compared to 573 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 537.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 62,041 compared to yesterday 7-day average at 59,172 compared to one week ago 45,456 up 36.5%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 10,072 compared yesterday 7-day average of 9,712 compared to one week ago 7,771 up 29.6%.
0.665M shots yesterday so total up to 353.8M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.722M. 85.8% of shots administered is the national average, 59.7% of population with 1+ dose (76.8% of the adult population), 50.7% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 198 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 168 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
30,883 positives reported yesterday compared to 103,862 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 110,812.
Fatality was 122 reported yesterday compared to 297 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 514.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 66,428 compared to yesterday 7-day average at 66,206 compared to one week ago 52,507 up 26.5%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 10,569 compared yesterday 7-day average of 10,632 compared to one week ago 8,816 up 19.9%.
As always, Monday reporting (Sunday data) is very sparse. The one good thing is that it appears the rate of increase is slowing (as seen by the percent increase week over week of the hospital numbers), the bad news is that it is still increasing. I think we continue to see increase in numbers for another 6 weeks unfortunately. We know as school are starting, that we are going to see an increase in cases due to so many people now being in contact with one another. Going to take a month of that before the numbers start to go back down in my mind.
0.858M shots yesterday so total up to 353.8M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.768M. 86.0% of shots administered is the national average, 59.8% of population with 1+ dose (77.0% of the adult population), 50.8% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 199 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 160 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
103,697 positives reported yesterday compared to 97,785 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 132,707.
Fatality was 308 reported yesterday compared to 320 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 577.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 65,935 compared to yesterday 7-day average at 66,428 compared to one week ago 52,507 up 20.2%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 10,385 compared yesterday 7-day average of 10,569 compared to one week ago 9,129 up 13.8%.
So we might be starting the plateau. You can see the daily positive curve just starting to flatline. You can see the hospitalizations and admissions day over day flatlining the last few days. Be very interesting to watch Florida over the next few days as their curve (which has been a huge driver in all of this) is flatlined the last 5 days. Texas is starting to flatline. California rate of increase has slowed way down. Louisiana actually looks on the decline now.
0.603M shots yesterday so total up to 353.8M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.766M. 85.9% of shots administered is the national average, 59.9% of population with 1+ dose (77.2% of the adult population), 50.9% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 199 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 169 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
137,307 positives reported yesterday compared to 131,921 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 135,151.
Fatality was 873 reported yesterday compared to 792 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 633.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 72,874 compared to yesterday 7-day average at 65,935 compared to one week ago 57,307 up 27.2%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 11,249 compared yesterday 7-day average of 10,385 compared to one week ago 9,466 up 18.8%.
So a lot of backloaded data today filling in the last few days some which puts yesterday's really good news dampened a little. Still feel we are starting to see the plateau starting, but was hoping that we might be in the middle of the plateau but the backfill of data shows more we are starting it.
These 14 day rolling averages are less prone to misleading fluctuations:
Avg on Aug 17. ; 14 Day Change; Total Reported
Cases. 139,872. ; +52%. ; 37,133,674
Tests. 1,046,915. ; +36% ; —
Hospitalized 83,291 ; +60% ; —
Deaths 696 ; +87% ; 623,237
0.705M shots yesterday so total up to 358.6M with the 7 day rolling average at 0.774M. 85.9% of shots administered is the national average, 60.0% of population with 1+ dose (77.3% of the adult population), 51.0% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 199 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 169 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
158,127 positives reported yesterday compared to 148,821 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 139,006.
Fatality was 1055 reported yesterday compared to 714 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 703.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 74,602 compared to yesterday 7-day average at 72,874 compared to one week ago 59,800 up 24.8%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 11,379 compared yesterday 7-day average of 11,249 compared to one week ago 9,786 up 16.3%.
Daily Positives -- Florida-23,335, Texas-18,434, California-13,023, Georgia-8014, Louisiana-6606, Tennessee-5478, North Carolina-5256, New York-4841, Mississippi-4085, Illinois-3833, Washington-3781, Kentucky-3537, South Carolina-3534, Indiana-3451, Ohio-3303, Missouri-3068, Pennsylvania-2697, Arkansas-2685
That's just it though, the vaccine is still extremely effective. It's rendered covid just a bad cold for most people.
Just poor messaging by the feds made people believe if they got the vaccine, they'd not only never test positive, but never get any kind of symptoms.
Unfortunately we still treat a positive test as someone who will end up in the hospital
Seriously why all the distortion? Did you guys ever think your misrepresentation only makes things worse. DeSantis has repeatedly said to get vaccinated.
I will admit I have a hard time finding the minority vaccination rates on the cdc website, it's almost as if they stopped tracking them. I have previously linked to vaccination rates among minorities, but it's possible those are a month or two out of date. I would be happy to read the total vaccination rates from the cdc if you can link to them. Perhaps you're just better at finding that information. Now, if you're going to link to rolling rates, forget it. That doesn't tell us anything about overall totals. With this information we can happily update my previous calculations, although those calcs were based on best available cdc data at the time.
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Just stop with the racial discussion and vaccine percent. EVERYBODY STOP RACIAL DISCUSSIONS. it is so stupid and completely IRRELEVANT.
I mean I hate when the mods went through that one week and literally deleted every post that basically occured. But I would be perfectly fine that if RACE is mentioned in any posts moving forward that it is deleted immediately. It is a stupid argument and a stupid discussion and completely irrelevant. Covid goes after any human being regardless of race so just stop.
Another tortuous line of logic is Red States are the main culprit. More unvaccinated in Blue California than in Alabama Louisiana, South Carolina, Mississippi, South Dakota, West Virginia, Arkansas and Tennessee COMBINED.. Oh wait that was you.
Please, please dont listen to this absolute nonsense. "Let the virus run its course" and watch hundreds of thousands of Americans die needlessly is not a strategy we should follow. I'm going to fulfill Godwins hypothesis and say this is a strategy that Hitler would have supported to thin the population of older individuals.
UK just had a report the Pfizer is only good for 90 days. Sounds like no one knows WTF is going on. I got the J&J and we are a forgotten people. No one even talks about us anymore.
You said you were telling people it’s not going to keep you from getting Covid but would reduce the effects….that’s not what the experts were saying but you were. Got it.
Your neighbor is a dope.
Here's an example of why I think the reporting is horrible. Everything I read talks about the spike in cases and hospitalizations in Florida. But if I look at the deaths being reported the number has declined 120 or so per day at the beginning of the month to single digits. I hear that it's now impacting kids but I can't find data on Delta variant deaths by age. I hear that this is an epedimic of the unvaccinated but they say we better soon get a booster. I assume that the increase in hospitalizations is true but beyond that I have no idea what to believe.
Scroll down to graph of daily deaths in Florida
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/
Maybe they will just go the self-injection route with these vaccines like insulin. Stick a patch on your arm, check your mRNA level with your phone, prick yourself.
💡
Here is some very useful data. Facts.
www.cdc.gov
This is a study of 10 million+ vaccinated individuals from New York state. The data is anlayzed in weekly chunks; the last week being very current, July19-July26, and therefore represents mostly Delta infections.
The key data is in Table 1.
Vaccinated individuals had Covid infections (not hospitalizations) at the rate of 3.9/100,000 person-days.
Unvaxxed had Covid infections at the rate of 21/100,000. Efficacy of vaccine for Delta at 80%.
Vaccinated individuals had Covid hospitalizations at the rate of 0.19/100,000 person-days.
Unvaxxed had Covid hospitalizations at the rate of 1.78/100,000. Efficacy of vaccine for Delta at 95%.
Two points are crystal clear from this data on almost 14 million people.
1) Unvaccinated individuals are keeping the pandemic going.
2) Unvaccinated individuals are keeping hospitals full (corollary--by keeping hospitals full, they are keeping vaccinated individuals from receiving elective but important surgeries, and preventive care (colonoscopies, etc)).
New COVID-19 Cases and Hospitalizations Among...
COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against hospitalizations was stable, but it declined against new infections among adults in New York during May–July 2021.
www.cdc.gov
This is a study of 10 million+ vaccinated individuals from New York state. The data is anlayzed in weekly chunks; the last week being very current, July19-July26, and therefore represents mostly Delta infections.
The key data is in Table 1.
Vaccinated individuals had Covid infections (not hospitalizations) at the rate of 3.9/100,000 person-days.
Unvaxxed had Covid infections at the rate of 21/100,000. Efficacy of vaccine for Delta at 80%.
Vaccinated individuals had Covid hospitalizations at the rate of 0.19/100,000 person-days.
Unvaxxed had Covid hospitalizations at the rate of 1.78/100,000. Efficacy of vaccine for Delta at 95%.
Two points are crystal clear from this data on almost 14 million people.
1) Unvaccinated individuals are keeping the pandemic going.
2) Unvaccinated individuals are keeping hospitals full (corollary--by keeping hospitals full, they are keeping vaccinated individuals from receiving elective but important surgeries, and preventive care (colonoscopies, etc)).
Everything I've read says you're wrong.
Cletus, You do a great job. Thanks, I am 100% in favor of vaccinations. However I do resent the absolute hatred and vitriol toward someone leery of getting vaccinated.
.Yes the overwhelming evidence is the vaccines work. However you must admit the message changes constantly and I get the the virus is evolving thing but for folks who don't pay as much attention as you do It easily could be confusing.
. for the 1st 12 months of the pandemic this was primarily a 70+ years of age and comorbidities issue. If you were young and healthy it truly was like a bad flu. Is it still? I read different reports.
. then like it or not the message was the vax will prevent you from getting it. How many moths did they trace "breakthrough cases" and how many people in this thread insisted only the unvaccinated were getting the virus? Now we know that isn't true
.what exactly is the truth on antibodies from already having Covid.? I can show you articles that say these antibodies provide better resistance, little or no resistance, and articles that say your response is both better and worse with having Covid and then the shot. And even then one shot or two.
.originally the Dr's were saying get whatever vaccine you could get. Then J&J had the clotting issue.. It sounds like that was in very few cases however the FDA did not rescind the EUA and yet we never hear anything about the J&J. Is it safe isn't it. That one is of particular interest to me because our whole family got the J&J before the clotting issue. Now we feel like we are limbo.
. Just today the UK issued a report saying the Pfizer is only good for 90 days.
. Add to that the no mask , mask, double mask back to only N95 mask debacle.
For folks who are naturally doubtful the messaging has done nothing to ease peoples doubts. That goes for both years and both administrations.
PS add to that the Wuhan lab leak. At first no way, now almost certainly. If this was a manufactured [gain of function] have they built in a quickly mutating feature that will eventually render vaccines ineffective? That is pure speculation but those in the know [Fauci] had to know all along so why didn't he address that at the beginning. What did he not want us to know?
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Will we also get rid of the posts trashing Trump supporters and anti-vaxxers?
the fatality curve on that chart for FLorida makes no sense. my bet is that Florida has just not reported those days yet in full and once they do the curve will not look like that anymore. no way they went from 100 to 8 while infection rates are still that high.
What???
You penalizing California for having more people??? I guess that’s making sense to morons. Maybe you should do the same for Texas and Florida.
Vaccination rates 1 dose (over 18)
California 80.6%
Mississippi 54.8
WV 55.4
Idaho 56.9
Alabama 57.7
Tennessee 58.1
N Dakota 58.6
Louisiana 58.6
Maybe you should check the facts before you run your pie hole
