Those not yet vaccinated are the vulnerable and the spreaders at this point. I don’t have a problem saying they should wear a mask still. I also don’t care if they don’t.
OT: USA COVID-19 Vaccination Updates
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
I had the Number two Moderna vaccine at noon yesterday. so far I have fever like symptoms; whole body aches, headache , chills nausea etc. I went to bed at 8pm and just woke up at 2pm. It’s been fairly miserable.
I read an article, forgot to bookmark it, where a researcher said the the vaxx in kids was safer than the polio vaccine. However she said that the chances of hospitalization due to the vax (cardio) was greater than hospitalization from covid in this age group.
this is actually a pretty important article. for the first time puts a number to the over calculations of covid deaths due to the 'with' versus 'of' debate. So 25% too many and I am sure that is just looking at the iron clad no brainers, so easily could be more in the 30-40% range if you probably assigned percent blame to death versus black and white one or other.
1.15M shots yesterday so total up to 300.2 with the 7 day rolling average at 0.94M. 81.8% of shots administered is the national average, 51.3% of population with 1+ dose (66.0% of the adult population), 41.6% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 170 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 138 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
11,603 positives reported yesterday compared to 16,883 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 13,956.
Fatality was 388 compared to 520 yesterday and 387 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 379.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 18,247 compared to one week ago 21,695 down 15.9%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 2,421 compared to one week ago 3,023 down 19.9%.
My "area under the curve" shows 549,000 deaths above the expected baseline (obviously due to Covid) as opposed to the official CDC of 612,000 deaths. So, maybe 10% of the Covid deaths are not actually Covid.
Kane, how sensitive is your forecasted deaths model? More specifically, how are you calculating the forecast? I wondering how much the recent heavy flu seasons (2015, 2017, 2018) had on your forecast for 2020. I'm also wondering if the early covid deaths caused your forecast to go for early 2021. These two conditions may have shifted your forecast upward thus reducing area under the curves. Just a thought...My "area under the curve" shows 549,000 deaths above the expected baseline (obviously due to Covid) as opposed to the official CDC of 612,000 deaths. So, maybe 10% of the Covid deaths are not actually Covid.
Or perhaps the 549,000 excess total deaths are COVID + impact of COVID measures? A friend of mine lost her 50 year old husband due to sudden heart failure during this time. He did not go in to get checked with symptoms he experienced prior to the event. He had never tested positive for COVID.My "area under the curve" shows 549,000 deaths above the expected baseline (obviously due to Covid) as opposed to the official CDC of 612,000 deaths. So, maybe 10% of the Covid deaths are not actually Covid.
There are likely hundreds of thousands of those types of deaths in your numbers because a large percentage of routine screening to major symptoms for heart disease, cancer, and other major causes of death were being ignored.
While total deaths show the most vulnerable taken by COVID (elderly, multiple comorbidities) and therefore we might expect total deaths to be less after COVID (the most vulnerable may have succumbed a few months to a year earlier than natural), we may also see the impact of the cost due to shut downs ignoring symptoms and detection of heart disease, cancer, and other top 10 all cause deaths adding significantly to all cause deaths. The question then becomes, did we cause more harm than good in our response to COVID?
My estimation is that we did be a large margin. General population health appears to have decreased significantly as a function of our COVID measures.
This number will continue to increase, too, as people who didn't take the normal measures for treatment due to governments trying to keep hospitals empty are now at much higher risk for fatal complications. Especially cancer.
Yes, my family knows too well the impact of detecting cancer at various stages. A few months to a year of delayed detection will have a dramatic impact on how much time and quality of life that individual has remaining.
I curve fit a linear plus sinusoidal function - Y = AT + B + D Cosine(52T + Psi) from 2016 to 2019. I did not apply January 2020 or later to the model (as the model is intended to be Expected Deaths without Covid.
Unlike Mike Mann's lone tree temperature reconstruction, the results of this model are quite "robust" against variation in a few data points - inclusion, exclusion, etc. I will say that I really, really wanted to go back to 2010 or 2008, but I just couldn't find the data....
There's no sign that there were any meaningful Covid deaths in 2019 (there might have been a case or two, but nothing that would change the regression coefficients). I think the area under the curve is almost dead-on.
You will now begin to see the "dry tinder" effect (who came up with that name - it's excellent) - we will have a year or two of abnormally low deaths as those who were close to death were killed by Covid a few months to a year early, and virtually no younger, healthier people were harmed.
Cletus11 - Thanks for your daily updates. They are greatly appreciated.
Alameda Country was already over-reported by approximately 33%. They reduced the incorrect number by 25% but the overreporting was actually 1/3 of the correct value.
I agree that this was an important reporting change because it puts the first value on the overreporting. My suspicious side suspects there will quickly be another county "somewhere" reporting a much smaller correction. There may be some who don't want these numbers out there as the only reported correction.
Medical examiners were under such pressure to always round up and deem a death as a covid death. Some tried to speak up against this pressure but got silenced.
My "area under the curve" shows 549,000 deaths above the expected baseline (obviously due to Covid) as opposed to the official CDC of 612,000 deaths. So, maybe 10% of the Covid deaths are not actually Covid.
Notes from the Field: Update on Excess Deaths Associated...
This report provides an update on excess deaths in the United...
www.cdc.gov
Using more recent data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS), CDC estimated that 545,600–660,200 excess deaths occurred in the United States during January 26, 2020–February 27, 2021
It's good to see that a thousand gubmint workers can come up to close to the right answer a month later than I did in my spare time. Of course, with them, you don't know if they're lying, omitting the truth, or misleading right to the point where you can't quite call it a lie.Notes from the Field: Update on Excess Deaths Associated...
This report provides an update on excess deaths in the United...
Using more recent data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS), CDC estimated that 545,600–660,200 excess deaths occurred in the United States during January 26, 2020–February 27, 2021
Well it's pretty straightforward to me. Omitting the truth and misleading are both lies, there's no two ways about it.It's good to see that a thousand gubmint workers can come up to close to the right answer a month later than I did in my spare time. Of course, with them, you don't know if they're lying, omitting the truth, or misleading right to the point where you can't quite call it a lie.
For the parents on the board...how many times did your middle schooler or high schooler tell you something that was going on and you got the completely wrong idea of what was happening? Well, that was lying, and this is an analogy to what has been happening in the media regarding covid.
As of Sunday, 14 states, most of which are located in the northeast, have passed the 70% threshold of their population over 18 years old with at least one vaccine dose, CDC data showed. Six states, four of which are in the South, have not passed the 40% threshold of their population over 18 years old with one dose, according to the CDC.
So, those states under 40% must be doing way worse than the states over 70%, as far as actual Covid cases go, right?
was just thinking how government officials don’t seem to be held accountable for demonstrably wrong statements. For instance in early March, California’s governor said that Texas lifting its mask mana date was “absolutely reckless.” 3 months and a few days later and Texas seems to be doing just fine. But I haven’t seen a single journalist ask Newsom about this comment. Just seems odd to me.
His state is headed to third world nation status…he should mind his own business.
The New England states which have the highest vaccination percentages have a larger decrease per capita than some of these southern states which also show a decrease in new Covid cases, but just not as large. So if you’re really wondering if vaccination rates correlate to fewer new Covid cases, the answer is yes.
We just had the head of the CDC tell us how youth hospitalizations are going up and how dire it's looking. Despite every single piece of data proving her wrong.
Whatever falls under Abundance of Caution I'm all for it. The Daytona 5. Fine with me. 45mph.
The next Space Shuttle should be called the Abundance of Caution. Next big aircraft carrier, the USS Abundance of Caution.
You military guys...how many awards did you get for AOC? Abundance of Caution? That's right, none.
The next Space Shuttle should be called the Abundance of Caution. Next big aircraft carrier, the USS Abundance of Caution.
You military guys...how many awards did you get for AOC? Abundance of Caution? That's right, none.
1.6M shots yesterday so total up to 301.6 with the 7 day rolling average at 0.996M. 81.2% of shots administered is the national average, 51.5% of population with 1+ dose (66.3% of the adult population), 41.9% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 171 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 139 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
6,408 positives reported yesterday compared to 11,810 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 13,185.
Fatality was 164 compared to 388 yesterday and 188 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 375.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 17,563 compared to one week ago 21,272 down 17.4%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 2,328 compared to one week ago 3,962 down 21.4%.
it doesn't say. and the Bloomberg number I use for adults vaccinated is different from the CDC and higher by a couple of percent. although I have seen the CDC data lag some versus other sites. I have also went into some individual states and they differ a little bit also between sites. So all the data has some +/- in it.
it will be interesting to see where things are at come end of August. I suspect by then that we will have reached real close to 70% of adult population will have at least one dose by that time when you look at average across the entire country. Probably in the 60% range versus total population by that time with one dose.
By fall I suspect we will have a solid handle on % vaccinated/ recovered necessary for herd immunity. For example, here are two counties in Missouri that are at 30% vaccination and are seeing a pre-summer uptick. Last summer we saw a surge in cases starting in late June when people headed indoors to air conditioning. With community vaccination rates ranging from 25-75% we should have enough data for a very good sensitivity analysis on herd immunity.
Missouri counties seeing pre-summer COVID-19 spike
Two Missouri counties are recording significantly higher COVID-19 cases compared to state, national numbers.
www.kshb.com
By fall I suspect we will have a solid handle on % vaccinated/ recovered necessary for herd immunity. For example, here are two counties in Missouri that are at 30% vaccination and are seeing a pre-summer uptick. Last summer we saw a surge in cases starting in late June when people headed indoors to air conditioning. With community vaccination rates ranging from 25-75% we should have enough data for a very good sensitivity analysis on herd immunity.
Missouri counties seeing pre-summer COVID-19 spike
Two Missouri counties are recording significantly higher COVID-19 cases compared to state, national numbers.
yeah, we will see spikes in the fall just like we did last year in certain locations. We saw it just a month ago with some western states (washington, colorado) that had a mini-spike as they really never had an original spike to begin with. So those areas with a low vaccine rate that never really had an original spike in that area to increase the natural immunity are eventually going to get it. big difference that i see though is that even the very low vaccination states and areas are still high enough that a 'spike' is nowhere near what the country saw this past January or even the mini spike in late March. So a local spike will be more a small rise but never get too out of control as just too many people vaccinated right now for that to happen.
I know the consensus as told by the Big Media is that stupid Republicans won’t get vaccinated. But a study of people by job occupation showed huge differences in who has decided not to get vaccinated. The researchers were shocked that people in four field were strongly against getting vaccinated. Construction, agriculture, mining, and logging. Gee wonder why they feel that way? They all work outside. And most of those would be Rs.
Doubtful about covid vaccine? It depends on your occupation, study shows
Vaccine hesitancy among working-age adults varies by occupation — and so does their reasoning for being hesitant, a study from University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon University scientists found. Scientists from the institutions analyzed results from an ongoing national covid-19 survey by...
triblive.com
Yep, this is how you convince people to get vaccinated. smhBy fall I suspect we will have a solid handle on % vaccinated/ recovered necessary for herd immunity. For example, here are two counties in Missouri that are at 30% vaccination and are seeing a pre-summer uptick. Last summer we saw a surge in cases starting in late June when people headed indoors to air conditioning. With community vaccination rates ranging from 25-75% we should have enough data for a very good sensitivity analysis on herd immunity.
Missouri counties seeing pre-summer COVID-19 spike
Two Missouri counties are recording significantly higher COVID-19 cases compared to state, national numbers.
"Our concern is really providing education that if you are not vaccinated, and even if you are vaccinated, with this amount of spread and the variants that are here, you should still be taking precautions and being careful with how you're interacting with people in the community."
It’s happening in Great Britain now. As you mentioned, the numbers aren’t anywhere near what we’ve seen pre-vaccinations. But I think this supports the notion that this won’t go away completely until we get much higher vaccination rates. The most important thing mentioned in the linked article is that deaths shouldn’t go up much because the most at risk are mostly vaccinated.
The Morning: The dangerous Delta variant
messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com
"Fake News" is the real pandemic.I know the consensus as told by the Big Media is that stupid Republicans won’t get vaccinated. But a study of people by job occupation showed huge differences in who has decided not to get vaccinated. The researchers were shocked that people in four field were strongly against getting vaccinated. Construction, agriculture, mining, and logging. Gee wonder why they feel that way? They all work outside. And most of those would be Rs.
Doubtful about covid vaccine? It depends on your occupation, study shows
Vaccine hesitancy among working-age adults varies by occupation — and so does their reasoning for being hesitant, a study from University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon University scientists found. Scientists from the institutions analyzed results from an ongoing national covid-19 survey by...
I'm done with masks as of last Wednesday. I've now walked away 3 times from businesses that were requiring masks to enter. I didn't say anything other than "Ok" and then turned and left.
Covid-19 isn't ever going away. It will continue to mutate and be around for many years. Basically until about anybody who isn't vaccinated eventually get's Covid and has natural antibodies. The difference will be that the number of people getting it will be no different than the normal flu and the death's attributed to it will be like the flu also.
I’m not even convinced the numbers will be that high within a year or two.
The article you posted literally says that vaccine hesitancy decreases with increased education. It further says that fear of side effects and anti-government sentiment are driving their hesitancy. I am not sure you are making the point you thought you were.I know the consensus as told by the Big Media is that stupid Republicans won’t get vaccinated. But a study of people by job occupation showed huge differences in who has decided not to get vaccinated. The researchers were shocked that people in four field were strongly against getting vaccinated. Construction, agriculture, mining, and logging. Gee wonder why they feel that way? They all work outside. And most of those would be Rs.
Doubtful about covid vaccine? It depends on your occupation, study shows
Vaccine hesitancy among working-age adults varies by occupation — and so does their reasoning for being hesitant, a study from University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon University scientists found. Scientists from the institutions analyzed results from an ongoing national covid-19 survey by...
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