And many are made up or exaggerated, yet people still believe them.
OT: USA COVID-19 Vaccination Updates
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
3.3M shots yesterday so total up to 243.463M with the 7 day rolling average at 2.55M. 77.8% of shots administered is the national average, 44.0% of population with 1+ dose (56.7% of the adult population), 31.2% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 146 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 103 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
42,040 positives reported yesterday compared to 58,185 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 51,346
Fatality was 664 compared to 784 yesterday and 750 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 710.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 36,304 compared to one week ago 38,804 down 6.4%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 4,928 compared to one week ago 5535 down 11.0%.
Michigan really leading the fatality with 140, California with 98, Florida with 79, Texas with 55, Illinois with 39, NJ with 34, and PA with 32.
I will say - while vaccination rate has declined SOME, it has not collapsed.
That's good news.
remember that the next few weeks are still all the 2nd shots from the peak vaccine numbers we had in March. So it appears to me we are at about 1 million new vaccinations first shots per day. I think mid-May you will see the daily vaccine numbers going down a significant amount as those peak second shot numbers clear out.
2.13M shots yesterday so total up to 245.59M with the 7 day rolling average at 2.42M. 78.6% of shots administered is the national average, 44.3% of population with 1+ dose (57.0% of the adult population), 31.6% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 147 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 105 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
30,701 positives reported yesterday compared to 42,099 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 50,251
Fatality was 312 compared to 664 yesterday and 289 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 719.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 36,304 compared to one week ago 38,804 down 6.4%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 4,928 compared to one week ago 5535 down 11.0%.
Apparently hospitalizations are not updated on Sunday as there are no numbers for today.
I think this could be an interesting week. NY, NJ, Massachusetts, PA, Michigan who really drove the mid March through mid April spike are all on the significant decline. I expect that we'll go under 50,000 daily positives this week for the first time since early October when the initial big spike first started to happen. We are seeing some small spiking in other parts of the country that are opening up but nowhere near the magnitude of Michigan/NY metro area (probably due to the large vaccine percent basically not allowing that to happen).
We are also going into week 3 of decline from the recent spike with the high point being April 14th, so if we don't see any movement on the daily fatality front later this week (as typically has trailed by 3 weeks the daily positives), it appears that the 700 daily fatality rate might be the background of what Covid is.
I also think in this month of May we will see some large declines in daily positives as colleges start to get out for summer break and high school sports seasons end. Both of those I think contribute greatly to the daily positives as a lot of testing done in colleges and high school sports that will no longer occur anymore. Throw in the typical decline in virus in the summer due to heat/weather, be interesting to see how low the daily positives can go. We are averaging about 1000 less daily positives per day over the past 2 weeks, would be great to keep that number up and be down into the 25K range by end of May.
On the vaccine front, things obviously slowing way down, at 44% of population (57% of adult population) so probably in the 50% of population and 65%+ range for adults is where we end up by end of month. Starting to see more states gradually opening up more, I will be very disappointed (but not surprised) if the CDC/Admin doesn't come out in a couple of weeks and announce some more recommendations that are much more relaxed. Hopefully they learned something this last time around that what they said went over like a lead balloon and need to be more realistic as even the medical talking heads on the MSNBC/CNN world are calling for greater freedoms for vaccinated people.
We are also going into week 3 of decline from the recent spike with the high point being April 14th, so if we don't see any movement on the daily fatality front later this week (as typically has trailed by 3 weeks the daily positives), it appears that the 700 daily fatality rate might be the background of what Covid is.
I also think in this month of May we will see some large declines in daily positives as colleges start to get out for summer break and high school sports seasons end. Both of those I think contribute greatly to the daily positives as a lot of testing done in colleges and high school sports that will no longer occur anymore. Throw in the typical decline in virus in the summer due to heat/weather, be interesting to see how low the daily positives can go. We are averaging about 1000 less daily positives per day over the past 2 weeks, would be great to keep that number up and be down into the 25K range by end of May.
On the vaccine front, things obviously slowing way down, at 44% of population (57% of adult population) so probably in the 50% of population and 65%+ range for adults is where we end up by end of month. Starting to see more states gradually opening up more, I will be very disappointed (but not surprised) if the CDC/Admin doesn't come out in a couple of weeks and announce some more recommendations that are much more relaxed. Hopefully they learned something this last time around that what they said went over like a lead balloon and need to be more realistic as even the medical talking heads on the MSNBC/CNN world are calling for greater freedoms for vaccinated people.
1.19M shots yesterday so total up to 246.78M with the 7 day rolling average at 2.29M. 79.0% of shots administered is the national average, 44.4% of population with 1+ dose (57.2% of the adult population), 31.8% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 148 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 106 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
39,938 positives reported yesterday compared to 47,741 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 50,665
Fatality was 445 compared to 312 yesterday and 472 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 716.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 34,012 compared to one week ago 38,441 down 11.5%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 4,626 compared to one week ago 5321 down 13.1%.
So really continuing the trend of decreases in daily positives and hospitalizations. The hospitalization decrease is also starting to increase in rate also as the drop week over week is getting bigger day by day.
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Only 1.19 million shots yesterday. At this rate, we’ll be negative in daily shots administered by the end of the week.
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Also forgot to mention the other big news in that Pfizer and FDA is set to approve their vaccine for ages 12-15 years old (Pfizer is the vaccine already approved for 16-17 year old where the others are 18+). Expected the FDA will approve the EUA next week.
I can foresee the talking heads having a field day with this one.
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Some people will even believe what journalists say even though all the evidence is to the contrary.
0.989M shots yesterday so total up to 247.8M with the 7 day rolling average at 2.19M. 77.8% of shots administered is the national average, 44.5% of population with 1+ dose (57.4% of the adult population), 32.0% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 148 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 106 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
42,354 positives reported yesterday compared to 52,226 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 49,396
Fatality was 853 compared to 445 yesterday and 883 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 718.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 34,827 compared to one week ago 38,115 down 8.6%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 4,729compared to one week ago 5,225 down 9.5%.
Vaccine rate really just falling off a cliff now. Don't see anyway we hit this magic 70% number that the admin and governors are pushing. Be lucky to get to 60% by end of May based on the current vaccine numbers.
The good news is that we are finally under the 50,000 daily positive which is the first time under 50,000 cases per day since October 10th of last year which was at the beginning of the big spike. I foresee that daily positive continuing to go down as a lot of areas are seeing continued daily decreases and the NYC metro area which has driven the numbers for so long must have reached herd immunity as you look at the NY, NJ, Connecticut and to a lesser extent PA are all on the heavy downslope.
Some numbers. PA at peak at peak on April 17th was 4947 now at 3046, NJ on April 1 was 4600 and is now at 1570, NY on April 1 was 8410 and now at 3356, Michigan on April 14 was 7870 now at 3627.
Thanks as always for the update. What do you make of the jump in fatalities from 445 to 853? Real or a data dump catch-up?
Definitely data dumps. Some states no longer report deaths daily now.
just reporting. many states don't report on weekends and then report bigger numbers during the week as they catch up. happens every week, some weeks for whatever reason are more pronounced then other. Big driver here is MIchigan still who is leading the country in daily fatalities (133 reported today).
Seems like only people going to get the vax now are those needing the second dose. Might not even get to 5 M this week. I do think that more people than stated have actually have had the virus (via my friend at NIH) so that does help some.
You mean
Well, that's not true at all. I think you mean to say that a certain percentage of vaccinated people "tested positive" for COVID.Updated breakthrough case data. It's still at 0.008% of vaccinated people that got covid
COVID-19 Breakthrough Case Investigations and Reporting | CDC
Information and resources to help public health departments and laboratories investigate and report COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases.www.cdc.gov
to be clear, we will reach herd immunity at some point even if it is through increased infections.
New Yahoo News/YouGov COVID poll: The U.S. is about to run out of adults who are eager to get vaccinated
Andrew Romano
·West Coast Correspondent
Sat, May 1, 2021, 10:49 AM
The U.S. is about to run out of adults who are ready and willing to get vaccinated against COVID-19, according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll.
The survey of 1,558 Americans 18 or older, which was conducted from April 27 to April 29, found that while the number who say they have already been vaccinated (57 percent) has continued to climb in recent weeks, just 6 percent now say they have not yet been vaccinated but plan to get a shot “as soon as it is available to me.”
That’s down from 35 percent in February and 17 percent earlier in April.
At the same time, the share of adults who say they are unsure (7 percent), are waiting to see “what happens to others before deciding” (10 percent) or will “never” get vaccinated (20 percent) has not budged.
The implication is stark: Unless many of the unvaccinated Americans who have been saying for months that they’re waiting or unsure have a sudden change of heart, fewer than 65 percent of U.S. adults are likely to be inoculated against COVID-19 this spring — far short of the level experts say is required for the kind of lasting population-wide protection known as herd immunity.
Reaching that threshold — the point when an estimated 80 percent of all Americans regardless of age have been vaccinated and the coronavirus runs out of potential hosts — would then require an additional 96 million U.S. residents to be vaccinated, a process that could presumably begin when regulators approve the COVID vaccines for use in children.
The only problem? There are just 73 million minors in the entire country, and nowhere near all of them will be vaccinated.
Herd immunity through vaccination, in other words, seems almost certain to elude the U.S. — an outcome that has become increasingly plausible in recent weeks as vaccine supply outstrips demand and the average number of daily doses administered starts to slip.
It has been 'unpaused' is allowed to be given now. I think the amount of J&J actually being put in arms is relatively low. I think most women are not going to take it (and I would not if I was a women). I think the J&J is more important globally as a one shot vaccine for Central/South America and Africa.
Agree, those who opt out of the vaccine for whatever reason will eventually get COVID. How many people have gone through life without a cold? So the herd threshold will be met one way or the other.
Washington Post reporting that people still prefer it - even after the pause.
There is no government data yet on whether health authorities’ 10-day halt in administration of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine soured people on the product, and the company declined to discuss the matter. But in spot checks across the country, people seeking vaccines and officials dispensing them appear eager to resume using the vaccine, which is also easier to store and transport.
On Tuesday, for example, 1,355 people at the racetrack chose Johnson & Johnson at the clinic run by Indiana University Health, while 407 took the Pfizer vaccine, according to spokesman Jonathon Hosea.
My wife and I both had it earlier and yes some people we know waited until it was resumed to get it this week.
A co-worker mentioned that he and a group of his friends are going back for second rounds of vaccinations. They originally had the dual Moderna shots and now are looking at doing the J&J for "extra" protection with the different vaccine platform. This group is all in their 30's and 40's and were huge original line jumpers here in Texas. The group is about 18 people he mentioned, and the ring leader worked out a process that they all got their original shots at the same time it was isolated to 65+ or those at risk (none of them were at risk except for being considered "overweigh" and not obese by the BMI Calculator). He also had Covid last fall (I had to isolate and take multiple tests for 10 days from contract tracing). Is this crazy or not? Has anything been tested doing this? He mentioned that there are 10s of thousands of open appointments in the area and many vaccines not being used. Guessing that these numbers are small, but they certainly dilute the % vaccinated a small amount. Or, are they just better patriots than the rest of us
Corollary: I talked with a Sales Engineer this morning for me in Copenhagen. She is 55 and still not eligible for a vaccine there (>65 now). Her appointment is scheduled in mid August. They are at 12% of the population vaccinated. In addition, I did a Zwift bike ride a few days ago with a bunch of people from France. A guy there mentioned that they are only at 5% of the population vaccinated. What's up with the EEU in dragging their feet. Is it time to divert all of the leftover supply to them (or elsewhere)?
A co-worker mentioned that he and a group of his friends are going back for second rounds of vaccinations. They originally had the dual Moderna shots and now are looking at doing the J&J for "extra" protection with the different vaccine platform. This group is all in their 30's and 40's and were huge original line jumpers here in Texas. The group is about 18 people he mentioned, and the ring leader worked out a process that they all got their original shots at the same time it was isolated to 65+ or those at risk (none of them were at risk except for being considered "overweigh" and not obese by the BMI Calculator). He also had Covid last fall (I had to isolate and take multiple tests for 10 days from contract tracing). Is this crazy or not? Has anything been tested doing this? He mentioned that there are 10s of thousands of open appointments in the area and many vaccines not being used. Guessing that these numbers are small, but they certainly dilute the % vaccinated a small amount. Or, are they just better patriots than the rest of us
Corollary: I talked with a Sales Engineer this morning for me in Copenhagen. She is 55 and still not eligible for a vaccine there (>65 now). Her appointment is scheduled in mid August. They are at 12% of the population vaccinated. In addition, I did a Zwift bike ride a few days ago with a bunch of people from France. A guy there mentioned that they are only at 5% of the population vaccinated. What's up with the EEU in dragging their feet. Is it time to divert all of the leftover supply to them (or elsewhere)?
The EU is way, way behind. If you are under 50 and healthy (ie... the last group eligible) they are telling people won't be until fall before you can expect to start that group. Now i expect now that the USA cannot use anywhere near the vaccine numbers the admin has purchased (i think they purchased enough for 400M people when in reality only about 200M will get vaccinated) will start to release P/M/J&J to start distributing to rest of world which will speed things up. And if Novavax ever gets approved, which was supposed to be in May although heard nothing from them the past month, add them into the worldwide mix also.
This week's "All Deaths" update.
You can see that it's starting to settle down now.
Each week, data fills in, and the weeks in March, which are under the orange line, are not moving up very much.
The week of 3/20 filled in from to 54890 to 55880, an increase of only 990. That will probably go up another 3000 over the next 8 or 9 weeks, and essentially then stop.
I think we're not seeing any more "excess deaths".
You can see that it's starting to settle down now.
Each week, data fills in, and the weeks in March, which are under the orange line, are not moving up very much.
The week of 3/20 filled in from to 54890 to 55880, an increase of only 990. That will probably go up another 3000 over the next 8 or 9 weeks, and essentially then stop.
I think we're not seeing any more "excess deaths".
1.8M shots yesterday so total up to 249.6M with the 7 day rolling average at 2.13M. 77.6% of shots administered is the national average, 44.7% of population with 1+ dose (57.6% of the adult population), 32.3% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 149 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 107 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
46,129 positives reported yesterday compared to 56,733 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 47,945
Fatality was 743 compared to 853 yesterday and 986 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 682.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 34,374 compared to one week ago 37,832 down 8.9%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 4,713compared to one week ago 5,139 down 8.3%.
So another excellent day on the metrics front. Daily positives taking another large downward push and for the first time in a long, long time we went under 700 fatalities per day. For perspective, the only time under 700 fatalities per day was a brief window in late June through early July last year.
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2.41M shots yesterday so total up to 249.6M with the 7 day rolling average at 2.13M. 77.6% of shots administered is the national average, 44.7% of population with 1+ dose (58.0% of the adult population), 32.3% of population fully vaccinated.
So far, 149 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 109 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.
47,819 positives reported yesterday compared to 59,428 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 46,288
Fatality was 860 compared to 743 yesterday and 891 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 677.
Hospitalizations reported 7 day rolling average is 33,808 compared to one week ago 37,301 down 9.4%.
Hospital admissions reported 7 day rolling average is 4,640compared to one week ago 5066 down 8.4%.
Another really good day on the metrics front. 3 weeks ago on April 15, the daily positive was 71,970 and today it checked in at 46,288 that is 25,683 drop in 21 days so average more than 1,000 drop per day. Fatality chart finally on the move down and yesterday's big drop didn't get corrected today so held a second day under 700. I think the daily positives rate of decline will start to slow down some as those big states that were driving it are starting to get down to some low numbers such that they cannot just drop as much as they could coming down from the spike, but this time next week we could see under 40,000 daily positives. We have not been under 40,000 positives since a one week period in mid-September and before that you would have to go back to late June last year (which considering the complete lack of testing back then, basically wasn't a good number to begin with). Point being, sometime in the next 2 weeks we will hit the lowest daily positive numbers since this pandemic started.
seems like the pharmacies are really pushing the vaccine in CA and you don’t need appointments any more. I ran to grab a prescription for my wife around 8pm last night at Rite Aid. When I was cashing out the pharmacist said - we can give you the vaccine if you want it. I finished my 2nd about 5 weeks ago so I didn’t need it. But thought it was interesting that we have hit the point in CA that supply seems to be put pacing demand.
I think you will get some kids that come home from college that end up getting it in the next few weeks. plus some random general people who were on the fence who because it is so easy to get it now just do it. but the vaccine rate will fall off a cliff in the next couple of week as we are still having 2M+ per day based on the second shot from the peak vaccine rate we had 3 and 4 weeks ago. but by the end of next week that peak 2nd vaccine shots will be completed so we will see the vaccine rate I think dip below 1M per day in 2 weeks from now
Took a friend to Rite Aid to get his second shot. The big overhead sign said ‘walkins welcome’. W Pa.
when i went into Walgreens 2 weeks ago for my second shot, they were literally asking everybody who walked in the store if they wanted/needed a vaccine as they had them available. so yeah, all the mass vac sites are walk in now in most locations, and I know all the local pharmacies around me have appts. available every day. I cannot believe that there are many locations in the country out there that one cannot find a walk in appt. for a vaccine at this point in time.
Pfizer also close to getting approval for the vaccine to be given to kids younger than 16 - I for one will not be getting my 15 year old daughter vaccinated - there are no long term studies on the effects of these vaccines obviously and with her still developing physically its too great a risk. There have been almost zero kids that have died from COVID that didn't have underlying conditions and if the argument is what about giving COVID to others - the only ones now that aren't vaccinated don't want to be so that's on them.
Thinking about this a little more, if vaccine rate falls off a cliff I think that's a very good thing. The whole point of pushing for vaccines was to get them available to everyone that wanted one. If supply is no longer a problem (and by all accounts its not) and vaccine rate does a nose dive then it's mission accomplished. Demand has been met. Everyone that wanted one has been offered it. If we can't force people to get it (and I don't think we can) then the pandemic is over. Otherwise we're just protecting people who don't want to be protected with reduced capacities and masks. And if we're going to protect people that don't want to be protected, then it would be much more effective to just mandate everyone has to get the vaccine.
that is the hope for sound reasoning as to why to go full open. basically if you wanted the vaccine you had 6 weeks to get it (April 19th through end of May) so you could protect yourself. If you don't want it, then that is on you (which 99% of people not getting it that I know agree with this completely). But what you will hear being said next is that we need to continue with masks and lockdowns to some extent to protect the kids, that will be the next hurdle. CDC has liteally already come out and said that kids must mask up outside all day long regardless of it is 95F and hot outside. SO you can see already that the the CDC is literally taking a ZERO RISK posture on how they are moving forward. SO unless the CDC changes their mind on things, the pandemic cannot be over until forced vaccination of any living person in the USA as that is basically what their latest release has said if you look at the practical recommendations they are making.
The kids' study was also a very small study of less than 3000 total (including placebos).
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