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Just another PSU Fan

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Since it's a quiet Monday with some light snow falling in south central PA and my company is observing today as the New Year's Holiday, I thought I'd ask the forum a few burning questions ... what else am I supposed to do on a Monday?

Some very interesting news out of Iowa over the weekend, a sure thing 22-28 NCAA points is now gone! Next man up, Drake Ayala had a great Scuffle, only losing to returning AA Patrick McKee ---

Ayala beat Surtin (#12) twice at the scuffle ... will the Brands Bros pull his R/S? I can see Ayala finishing 5-8 on the podium, earning 8-15 points for the Hawks ...

Big 10 had 3 champs at the scuffle, most shocking was the #6 seed from Maryland - Kyle Cochran ... a year ago, Aaron Brooks dominated Cochran in the dual - based on the latest results and some momentum, do you see Cochran closing the gap with Brooks or does he get majored again?

I'm hoping to see Drew Hildebrandt in a PSU singlet for the 2 duals this weekend. Opening up against Braxton Brown on Friday shouldn't be any worry to us fans ... on Sunday, Indiana's Jacob Moran has quietly been racking up some wins with a lone decision loss to highly ranked Courtney from Arizona State - 1st home match in a PSU singlet, how will our new transfer do?

Final question - will the Lions post 2 shutout victories this weekend?
 

98lberEating2Lunches

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Feb 11, 2018
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1) You can do whatever you like on a free Monday. I plan to. You'll get no judgment from me.

2) I believe Coach Brands would only seriously consider pulling Ayala's redshirt after it's clear to him that Kemerer is back and healthy enough to score well at NCAAs. Iowa already burned Ybarra's redshirt. I don't believe more distant projections of Iowa's light weight lineup to ensure Ayala starts 4 years is much, if any, a factor in the decision due to inherent uncertainty.

3) Brooks will again score a bonus point win over Cochran. Gap has not been closed. Congratulations to Cochran for winning 184 and having a great tournament.

4) I believe if Hildebrandt wrestles both duals, he will win both in workmanlike fashion. At Rec Hall Sunday he will be greeted by the loudest ovation of any PSU wrestler during introductions.

5) It's possible, but for some reason I doubt it. PSU hasn't shut out anyone this year. A backup could be in, because someone is nicked up or under the weather. I believe at least one loss at 157 or 165 (or 125 if Hidebrandt doesn't go) in each dual is just as likely as not.
 

98lberEating2Lunches

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Has anyone seen a start time for sunday?
I think nobody yet knows and all are waiting on some BTN decision-maker.
  • Still showing up as TBA in PSU app and not determined whether BTN or BTN+.
  • I've seen nothing in my Twitter feeds.
  • PSWC also shows it as TBA.
It's good to be retired.
 

jack66

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The Hawks are not gonna go away quietly. They still have a lot of vets who came back for another title run, and I think TnT will pull Ayala's shirt even if Kem's return is in doubt.

As for Cochran, winning the Scuffle doesn't mean as much as it once did. There were no top-10 wrestlers at 184 this year. That said, after beating #13, #14, and #15 I'm sure he has Brooks' attention.

We have an 0-8 dual record at 157 so far. I like the way Negron wrestles but I will need to see his hand raised before predicting any shutouts.
 
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James P. Whitters III

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Drake's shirt is getting pulled. He will wrestle against MN. next Friday. Dual win will trump those 2 earlier losses for BIG seeding. They will want 2 or 3 seed away from Nicky pushups.
 

jack66

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Drake's shirt is getting pulled. He will wrestle against MN. next Friday. Dual win will trump those 2 earlier losses for BIG seeding. They will want 2 or 3 seed away from Nicky pushups.

Will Suriano be as motivated to wrestle 125 now that Spencer is out?
 

El-Jefe

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Drake's shirt is getting pulled. He will wrestle against MN. next Friday. Dual win will trump those 2 earlier losses for BIG seeding. They will want 2 or 3 seed away from Nicky pushups.
Don't see that as feasible with Glory and Arujau in the field, and Courtney max 1 loss to Glory. And if Mastro stays undefeated, he's already beaten McKee.

6 or 7 seed, maybe.
 

98lberEating2Lunches

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Will Suriano be as motivated to wrestle 125 now that Spencer is out?
If that NIL reason was the reason he came back (he was truly going 125) then I'd think his motivation could only be reduced.

He could always redshirt this year and focus on getting remotivated for next year. But there's no guarantee Spencer will be back next year.

Personally, I am not a big fan of planning one's life contigent on decisions or actions of others.
 

nittinsc

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If that NIL reason was the reason he came back (he was truly going 125) then I'd think his motivation could only be reduced.

He could always redshirt this year and focus on getting remotivated for next year. But there's no guarantee Spencer will be back next year.

Personally, I am not a big fan of planning one's life contigent on decisions or actions of others.
Don't tell your wife that.;)
 

GogglesPaizano

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Feb 6, 2018
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If that NIL reason was the reason he came back (he was truly going 125) then I'd think his motivation could only be reduced.

He could always redshirt this year and focus on getting remotivated for next year. But there's no guarantee Spencer will be back next year.

Personally, I am not a big fan of planning one's life contigent on decisions or actions of others.


The big news begs the question and a possible poll question. With Spencer gone this year, does that change Surianos plans? 4 options:

1) Stay the course and focus on a national championship this year, both team and individual.

2) Redshirt and hunt Spencer down next year

3) Screw the cut, and move up to 133. This hurts the overall team points slightly.

4) Walk away and focus on Free or MMA.

I think 1 & 3 are possibilities. There are no guarantees Spencer makes it back next year so waiting is problematic.
 

Psugo823

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Drake's shirt is getting pulled. He will wrestle against MN. next Friday. Dual win will trump those 2 earlier losses for BIG seeding. They will want 2 or 3 seed away from Nicky pushups.
He isn't beating Suriano or Glory, regardless of improving and regardless of anything. His ceiling is 3rd or 4th on the podium and his floor is 7th or 8th. No matter how you look at it, its a small drop to a medium drop In points. It is what it is.
 

ss7

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He isn't beating Suriano or Glory, regardless of improving and regardless of anything. His ceiling is 3rd or 4th on the podium and his floor is 7th or 8th. No matter how you look at it, its a small drop to a medium drop In points. It is what it is.
Spencer Lee won and scored 24.5 last year. Drew Hildebrandt got 4th and scored 12.5. Killian Carinale got 7th and scored 6.5.

Unless you think Ayala is going to go on McKee-like run and pin his way through the backside, it's going to be a fairly large drop in points from Spencer's normal contribution.
 

Psugo823

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Spencer Lee won and scored 24.5 last year. Drew Hildebrandt got 4th and scored 12.5. Killian Carinale got 7th and scored 6.5.

Unless you think Ayala is going to go on McKee-like run and pin his way through the backside, it's going to be a fairly large drop in points from Spencer's normal contribution.
I'm saying between 8 to 12 points drop.
 
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ss7

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I'm saying between 8 to 12 points drop.
I get that he's looked good so far, but I need to see him with at least 1 top 10 win before I'm penciling him in for a top 5 finish with a few bonus wins (which is what a drop of 8 to 12 points would require).
 

PSU_Pride_93

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I think you have to pull Ayalas redshirt so he doesn’t lose a year unless he greyshirts next year.
With Lee coming back to win 4, Ayala is either going and not losing eligibility next year or he goes 125 and then 133.

Also if rumors are true about Iowa pulling Swafford RS, Kemerer is likely done or moving up to 184.

Nelson Brands staying at 174 for so long should have hinted that Kem was either done or moving up anyway. If that wasn’t the case then Brands would have been up at 184 as he is the better option
 

donboy6499

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He isn't beating Suriano or Glory, regardless of improving and regardless of anything. His ceiling is 3rd or 4th on the podium and his floor is 7th or 8th. No matter how you look at it, its a small drop to a medium drop In points. It is what it is.
I’m not sold on 7/8 being the floor.
He can be very, very good still. It’s an absolutely loaded weight.
 
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dunkej01

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I think you have to pull Ayalas redshirt so he doesn’t lose a year unless he greyshirts next year.
With Lee coming back to win 4, Ayala is either going and not losing eligibility next year or he goes 125 and then 133.

Also if rumors are true about Iowa pulling Swafford RS, Kemerer is likely done or moving up to 184.

Nelson Brands staying at 174 for so long should have hinted that Kem was either done or moving up anyway. If that wasn’t the case then Brands would have been up at 184 as he is the better option
I dont believe you can grey shirt once enrolled and taking classes.
 

psumacw

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does anyone have a link to PSU's spectator protocols? i'm assuming it's just mask while not eating since i can't find anything concrete. we had a good weekend planned with basketball and hockey on saturday and wrestling sunday but my wife is refusing to take our 4 month old so it'll just be me and our 3 year old if i can promise her i'll keep him safe.
 

86PSUPaul

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does anyone have a link to PSU's spectator protocols? i'm assuming it's just mask while not eating since i can't find anything concrete. we had a good weekend planned with basketball and hockey on saturday and wrestling sunday but my wife is refusing to take our 4 month old so it'll just be me and our 3 year old if i can promise her i'll keep him safe.
PSU policy is masks in all buildings, though it is not enforced equally. Hockey it is enforced, wrestling not so much, not sure about Basketball. But I will find out since I will be at the Basketball game saturday.
 
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crockster

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He isn't beating Suriano or Glory, regardless of improving and regardless of anything. His ceiling is 3rd or 4th on the podium and his floor is 7th or 8th. No matter how you look at it, its a small drop to a medium drop In points. It is what it is.Dont see him beating Vito either. Cod agree with ceiling, but floor could be blood round. Stuff happens at tournaments...
 

mcpat

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I don’t know when it was, but I recall Tom Brands taking a swipe at Cael saying something to the effect that he (Tom) would never redshirt his best team. It was a clear reference to PSU’s 2014-15 season.

I’d be shocked if Ayala wasn’t their starter going forward.
 
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slushhead

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I don’t know when it was, but I recall Tom Brands taking a swipe at Cael saying something to the effect that he (Tom) would never redshirt his best team. It was a clear reference to PSU’s 2014-15 season.

I’d be shocked if Ayala wasn’t their starter going forward.
Yes, I recall that swipe.

However, I would be shocked if Ayala stays in redshirt only because Iowa should be in desperation mode and pulling out all the stops. Not because Brands might care about coming off as a hypocrite (he sure didn’t care about that when he whined to the media about going to ISU back-to-back for their dual series).
 

mcpat

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For the sake of argument, assume Ayala is the 10 seed. That means he’ll get the 23 seed in the first round. From what I’ve seen, that’s prob a bonus point win for him; we’ll say a major decision.

In the second round, he’ll get the 7 seed. Assume for a moment he wins that one too.

Then he gets the 2 seed. That’s a loss.

He drops to wrestlebacks and chalk would give him the 12 seed. I’ll give him a major there to maximize his points and because I’m only giving him a major in the 1st round. He’s now an AA.

By chalk, he’d then wrestle the 6 seed. Lose that one and he wrestles for 7th.

Or if he beats the 6 seed he’d then wrestle the 4 seed. lose to the 4 seed and he wrestles for 5th. Beat the 4 seed and he wrestles for third. (I’ll give him 4th as a possibility but not 3rd).

His points would be:

4th: 13.5
5th: 12.0
6th: 11.0
7th: 9.5
8th: 8.5
 

mcpat

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Yes, I recall that swipe.

However, I would be shocked if Ayala stays in redshirt only because Iowa should be in desperation mode and pulling out all the stops. Not because Brands might care about coming off as a hypocrite (he sure didn’t care about that when he whined to the media about going to ISU back-to-back for their dual series).
I didn’t mean it would be because he didn’t want to be a hypocrite; I meant because he meant it when he said it - that he wouldn’t redshirt guys if it meant it wasn’t his best team.
 

GogglesPaizano

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I don’t know when it was, but I recall Tom Brands taking a swipe at Cael saying something to the effect that he (Tom) would never redshirt his best team. It was a clear reference to PSU’s 2014-15 season.

I’d be shocked if Ayala wasn’t their starter going forward.

There are a LOT of things Tom Brands does differently than Cael and the results speak for themselves.
 

McScoreley

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I don’t know when it was, but I recall Tom Brands taking a swipe at Cael saying something to the effect that he (Tom) would never redshirt his best team. It was a clear reference to PSU’s 2014-15 season.

I’d be shocked if Ayala wasn’t their starter going forward.
Cael could take a swipe at Tom finishing 5, 4, 3, 4 subsequently as that redshirted team went 1, 1, 1, 1 but he was a bigger person
 

slushhead

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I didn’t mean it would be because he didn’t want to be a hypocrite; I meant because he meant it when he said it - that he wouldn’t redshirt guys if it meant it wasn’t his best team.
Well, I’m not convinced he is so genuine. If Iowa had no shot one year, and it made sense to keep a couple of guys shirted to load up and maximize their 4-yr potential as individuals, I can see him doing it. He should have at least learned from the 3” binder by now that it is an effective strategy for building a juggernaut. So, is he trying to follow the binder, or not?

I might note that Brands consistently preached “doing what’s best for the wrestler” in the not-so-distant past. That approach is not always going to be consistent with “putting the best team on the mat”. He can’t have it both ways. And he’s been prone to contradiction. For example, he couldn’t stick to “doing what’s best for the wrestler” when the too-injured-to-wrestle-anyone-good Sam Stoll insisted on taking the mat vs ISU a few years back. The meaningless dual-meet outcome was in the balance, and he caved and sent his too-injured-to-wrestle-anyone-good wrestler out there against a ranked opponent. Under unconvincing protest, I might add.

No, I see Brands as a guy who “does what’s best for the wrestler” primarily when winning isn’t really on the table. But when winning is possible, it’s all hands on deck.

A lot of that is fine by me — his job is to win. But I eyeroll at his swipe at Cael. Brands is trying to follow the binder and copy Cael in so many other ways that it just seems ridiculous that strategic shirting to maximize long-term success is allegedly off the table for him. BS, in my opinion. He’d love to be in that situation and capitalize. He’d copy Cael in a heartbeat if he had the horses and discipline to do it.

Ayala will come out of redshirt only because Iowa has a shot, not because of a philosophical commitment to always putting the best team on the mat.
 

82bordeaux

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The whole argument is moot because the situation is the polar opposite. 2022 is Iowa's strongest team projected for the next few years. It is now or never. That was not the case for PSU in 2015.
So Ayala will have his shirt pulled without a doubt. It makes sense for everyone but Ayala, but I doubt he wants to sit this one out. If he kept the red shirt, he would be a force for the next 4 years at 125/133. Now he'll be a force for the following three years, whether that is 2023-2025 or 2024-2026.