Troops withdraw from Lysyschansk

The Spin Meister

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Interesting. I guess Ukraine didn’t get Scott Ritter’s memo that the war was over in April. And May. And June. And July……….
And now August.

There have been additional attacks on the Russian bases in Crimea. A large ammo dump and electrical station exploded today with serious damage. 2000 people had to evacuated. Seven trains with supplies had to be stopped. Also explosions were seen at the other base that was attacked a week ago.

This shows that Ukraine has developed an ongoing capacity to hit Russia in Crimea. Either with long range attack missiles or forces on the ground as resistance fighters or special forces that infiltrated Crimea.

Crimea had become a tourist destination as Moscovites visit the warm beaches there. After the explosions last week sat photos showed long lines of cars jamming roads heading east out of Crimea. These people will go home and tell every else about what happened there.

And the bridges to Kherson have been destroyed or so badly damaged that they cannot be used. So the Russians have thousands of troops across the river that can only be supplied by pontoon bridges. And if their supplies run seriously short they may not be able to withdraw should conditions get that bad.

Imagine the videos of five thousand Russian troops surrendering! Not saying it will happen but the Kremlin is certainly concerned as they are sending reinforcements south from the Donbas.
 

The Spin Meister

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For some good news. .....twenty five ships carrying grain and food stocks have left Ukrainian ports since the agreement a few weeks ago. Sanctions on Russian wheat and fertilizer were lifted as part of the agreement and are also being transported. Should help ease famine concerns in much of the third world.
 

Jerry

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Meanwhile, hot off the presses this morning, another incisive article (link below) by Spin's favorite analyst ;) , John Mearsheimer.

I think Mearsheimer nails it again here. All parties have been maneuvered (or maneuvered themselves) into positions where "losing" is intolerable. This does not guarantee a catastrophic end, but does increase the chances of it:

 
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Ski

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Meanwhile, hot off the presses this morning, another incisive article (link below) by Spin's favorite analyst ;) , John Mearsheimer.

I think Mearsheimer nails it again here. All parties have been maneuvered (or maneuvered themselves) into positions where "losing" is intolerable. This does not guarantee a catastrophic end, but does increase the chances of it:


How many wars have results that are tolerable for the loser? A Russian victory is not tolerable for the rest of Europe, especially Eastern Europe. Russia maneuvered itself into this position. Ukraine was given no choice, as losing mineral rich territory and its Black Sea ports while keeping peace was just as bad as losing territory fighting a war they did not choose.
 

The Spin Meister

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Meanwhile, hot off the presses this morning, another incisive article (link below) by Spin's favorite analyst ;) , John Mearsheimer.

I think Mearsheimer nails it again here. All parties have been maneuvered (or maneuvered themselves) into positions where "losing" is intolerable. This does not guarantee a catastrophic end, but does increase the chances of it:

Once again, he takes the easy route.....”War is bad! War is dangerous!” Which every one understands. But he gives no solution....again.
 
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Jerry

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How many wars have results that are tolerable for the loser? A Russian victory is not tolerable for the rest of Europe, especially Eastern Europe. Russia maneuvered itself into this position. Ukraine was given no choice, as losing mineral rich territory and its Black Sea ports while keeping peace was just as bad as losing territory fighting a war they did not choose.

Well let me rephrase it. Substitute "not winning" for "losing."

There are many wars where "not winning" is tolerable. Perhaps not desirable or moral. But acceptable. See: Vietnam and Korea for example. In fact, history offers a number of examples.

The problem in the U.S.-Ukraine-Russia conflict now is that there no longer appears to be a scenario where "not winning" is a tolerable...or even possible...outcome for any of the three warring parties.

The inexorable logic of this state of affairs is escalation, which is the point of Mearsheimer's article. We've already seen a lot of that, and we're likely to see more.

Ski, we continue to have a basic disagreement on the issue of whether Ukraine had a "choice." As I see it, Ukraine made a number of choices that set the stage for war. Arguably the most unwise choice (for the people of Ukraine though not necessarily for its leadership) was to hitch the country's wagon to Dem-Media, Senile Joe...and Senile Joe's druggie son.

Once again, he takes the easy route.....”War is bad! War is dangerous!” Which every one understands. But he gives no solution....again.

As noted above, Mearsheimer did offer a solution...and a warning...in the years leading up to the conflict. The solution was rejected and the warning not heeded. So here we are.

By the way, Spin, if a month goes by that I don't argue with you about Ukraine, I feel a sense of emptiness in my life.

God forbid we're still arguing about it a year from now. I think something is going to break well before then.
 

The Spin Meister

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Well let me rephrase it. Substitute "not winning" for "losing."

There are many wars where "not winning" is tolerable. Perhaps not desirable or moral. But acceptable. See: Vietnam and Korea for example. In fact, history offers a number of examples.

The problem in the U.S.-Ukraine-Russia conflict now is that there no longer appears to be a scenario where "not winning" is a tolerable...or even possible...outcome for any of the three warring parties.

The inexorable logic of this state of affairs is escalation, which is the point of Mearsheimer's article. We've already seen a lot of that, and we're likely to see more.

Ski, we continue to have a basic disagreement on the issue of whether Ukraine had a "choice." As I see it, Ukraine made a number of choices that set the stage for war. Arguably the most unwise choice (for the people of Ukraine though not necessarily for its leadership) was to hitch the country's wagon to Dem-Media, Senile Joe...and Senile Joe's druggie son.



As noted above, Mearsheimer did offer a solution...and a warning...in the years leading up to the conflict. The solution was rejected and the warning not heeded. So here we are.

By the way, Spin, if a month goes by that I don't argue with you about Ukraine, I feel a sense of emptiness in my life.

God forbid we're still arguing about it a year from now. I think something is going to break well before then.
His so called solution was worthless. No way in hell would any Ukraine government agree to surrender the Donbas. And yes his idea was surrender. There would be no ‘special status’ or what ever label he wanted to give it. Putin had a large number of military there and would never have removed them. We have gone over how long and often he screwed with Ukraine. Invaded Crimea in 2014. Stole elections in 2010. Poisoned their President in 2004. I have shown how badly he lusts for Ukraine. You refuse to see it.

You need my Pure Logic Therapy more than once a month. And if it hasn’t cured you of your willful blindness a year from now than I will consider this exercise one of futility. And myself a failure.😪
 
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LafayetteBear

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Dude, Russia is making over 20 billion/month thanks to China and India. Within a month, they'll control all of Southern Ukraine, every port, the entire Black Sea, and the Sea of Azov. They'll control all shipments in Ukraine. Get real.
Uhh, Horsewanker, you neglected to mention the bombings of multiple Russian military sites in Crimea. This is gonna put a serious dent in the Russians' logistical capabilities.


Sorry to harsh your pro-Putin buzz, Trump Cultist.
 

Hotshoe

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Uhh, Horsewanker, you neglected to mention the bombings of multiple Russian military sites in Crimea. This is gonna put a serious dent in the Russians' logistical capabilities.


Sorry to harsh your pro-Putin buzz, Trump Cultist.
Could you possibly be any dumber? Trump? Can you think without your media? Wow, Crimea has been hit. Lmao. I love fools like you that haven't a fking clue regarding history. Ukraine hasn't done sh&t to Russia or Crimea. Russia controls the entire Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. That includes all resources, oil, gas, and ports. They did this within 6 months. Meanwhile, ignorant fools like you think Ukraine is winning. We're fighting a proxy war with Russia.

I dare you to go back and read my original comments on this war. I specifically stated, the world had a choice. I stated, most likely, Kiev was a diversion for control of the Black Sea. And here we are. Stick to probate, you suck at history and reality. Trump. What an ignorant fool you are.
 
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The Spin Meister

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Could you possibly be any dumber? Trump? Can you think without your media? Wow, Crimea has been hit. Lmao. I love fools like you that haven't a fking clue regarding history. Ukraine hasn't done sh&t to Russia or Crimea. Russia controls the entire Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. That includes all resources, oil, gas, and ports. They did this within 6 months. Meanwhile, ignorant fools like you think Ukraine is winning. We're fighting a proxy war with Russia.

I dare you to go back and read my original comments on this war. I specifically stated, the world had a choice. I stated, most likely, Kiev was a diversion for control of the Black Sea. And here we are. Stick to probate, you suck at history and reality. Trump. What an ignorant fool you are.
You may want to rethink that. Reports are the Black Sea fleet has been seriously weakened by the loss of its flagship and the loss of Snake Island. They now rarely go out beyond sight of shore.
 
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LafayetteBear

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LOL, Horsewanker. Again, sorry for harshing your pro-Putin buzz, but these attacks in Russian controlled Crimea are just beginning, and they are likely to do some serious damage, now that the Ukrainians have more advanced, and longer range, missile capability.

I never said that Ukraine is winning. But the fighting is still ongoing and, now, Ukraine has more potent weapons with which to strike back. Your blithe assumption that the hostilities are over is pretty comical. But what else could we expect from a graduate of Houseboat U?
 

Jerry

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His so called solution was worthless. No way in hell would any Ukraine government agree to surrender the Donbas. And yes his idea was surrender. There would be no ‘special status’ or what ever label he wanted to give it. Putin had a large number of military there and would never have removed them. We have gone over how long and often he screwed with Ukraine. Invaded Crimea in 2014. Stole elections in 2010. Poisoned their President in 2004. I have shown how badly he lusts for Ukraine. You refuse to see it.

You need my Pure Logic Therapy more than once a month. And if it hasn’t cured you of your willful blindness a year from now than I will consider this exercise one of futility. And myself a failure.😪

If you say so, Spin.

Meanwhile:

"Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad." -- Ancient Greek playwright Euripides

"We had to destroy the village in order to save it." -- American infantry officer in Vietnam

"The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path, and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked." -- John Mearsheimer, University of Chicago, 2015
 

The Spin Meister

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If you say so, Spin.

Meanwhile:

"Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad." -- Ancient Greek playwright Euripides

"We had to destroy the village in order to save it." -- American infantry officer in Vietnam

"The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path, and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked." -- John Mearsheimer, University of Chicago, 2015
2015..... the die was cast.
 

The Spin Meister

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So now Skynews is reporting that the Russian officers in Kershon have fled fo the other side of the river because they fear an offensive by Ukraine. Conditions there are deplorable with all sorts of accusations. Like a crematorium to cremate dead Russians to hide how many have died. Also to hide how many civilians have been killed.

Says there are 20,000 Russian Soldiers there that could be captured if Kershon is taken back by Ukrainian forces. They are short of food, ammo, and other supplies. And the attacks deep inside of Crimea have made the situation far worse for the Russians.
 
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Hotshoe

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Ukraine doesn't have much of a navy, 80% of it was overtaken in 2014 by the Russians. Russia has controlled the energy in the sea since 2014. They determine if anything gets in or out regarding the ports. It's also a literal minefield. Many of which are now loose and floating freely.
 

The Spin Meister

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Ukraine doesn't have much of a navy, 80% of it was overtaken in 2014 by the Russians. Russia has controlled the energy in the sea since 2014. They determine if anything gets in or out regarding the ports. It's also a literal minefield. Many of which are now loose and floating freely.
Maybe all those mines are why the Russian fleet won’t sail far from shore. Too dangerous for any ships.

But since they won’t travel, it greatly reduces the risk of a Russian amphibious assault anywhere, especially Odessa. And that is freeing up Ukrainian troops to fight elsewhere.
 
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The Spin Meister

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Now there are reports of additional Russian bases being attacked, two in Crimea and in Russia itself just over the Crimea border. One was a base near Sevistipol. Russia claims it shot down a drone with no damage but there are videos showing fires and smoke.

Russia detained six Muslim extremists but no word if they were connnected to the attacks. I did read a month ago that the Chechnian Muslims were starting to organize and preparing to rebel once again. Perhaps they are aligning themselves with Ukraine?

 
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The Spin Meister

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Two additional stories. Very scary....the nuclear plant with six reactors has been being run by Ukrainians even though the Russians captured it months ago as a safety precaution....,they know how to safely run the plant. Now the Russians have warned Ukrainian workers to stay away from the nuclear plant on Friday. Are they planning something drastic? Or do they believe they now know how to operate it safely without them? Seems crazy they would blow it up as Russia is down wind and would get some serious radiation fallout.

And as an example of how poorly led the Russians are they really screwed up earlier this week. They tweeted out a pic of the leadership of the Wagner battalion, one of their best. But the photo contained geo location data which the Ukrainians used to target them and blow up their headquarters. No word on how many were killed.
 
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The Spin Meister

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So now it seems as if the Russia s are going to cut the nuclear power plant from the grid, shutting off 25% of Ukraine’s power. They also have been working on connecting it to the Russian grid but don’t know if that is ready yet.

Sky News quotes a ‘western official’ as saying yesterday’s blasts near Sevestipol took out half of the Russian naval aircraft. Have no idea how many aircraft that means but half is significant!

And a bridge between Crimea and Russia was heavily damaged making supplying forces much more difficult. And an ammunition depot 30 miles inside Russia proper blew up but no word on cause.
 

Jerry

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So now it seems as if the Russia s are going to cut the nuclear power plant from the grid, shutting off 25% of Ukraine’s power. They also have been working on connecting it to the Russian grid but don’t know if that is ready yet.

Sky News quotes a ‘western official’ as saying yesterday’s blasts near Sevestipol took out half of the Russian naval aircraft. Have no idea how many aircraft that means but half is significant!

And a bridge between Crimea and Russia was heavily damaged making supplying forces much more difficult. And an ammunition depot 30 miles inside Russia proper blew up but no word on cause.

If these reports are true -- it's been very difficult since early in the war to sift or separate news from propaganda -- then we may be getting close to the point of my theory being tested: if the tide turns against Moscow, Putin will escalate rather than "lose." To me, this has always seemed obvious.

Meanwhile, linked below is a superb article...perhaps the best I've read on the subject of the U.S.-Russia war in Ukraine:

 

The Spin Meister

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If these reports are true -- it's been very difficult since early in the war to sift or separate news from propaganda -- then we may be getting close to the point of my theory being tested: if the tide turns against Moscow, Putin will escalate rather than "lose." To me, this has always seemed obvious.

Meanwhile, linked below is a superb article...perhaps the best I've read on the subject of the U.S.-Russia war in Ukraine:

Interesting book....er....article. Very long with some good stuff. But there is a lot to debate there. But I do have time to write a counter book going over all the issues he raised. Besides, I am very suspicious you are almost as stubborn as I so it would be useless.

Will say that like Mearshimer......of which he is an acolyte.....he criticizes what was done but never considers what may have happened if we followed a different path. While impossible to define with any certainty it is entire.y posi le the world may have been worse off than now.

I will say that this is indeed a disturbing scenario. Predicting Putin is always difficult and doing so if he is in a losing position. And if his health is failing that really complicates things. But IMO the alternatives are just as unsettling.
 

Jerry

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Interesting book....er....article. Very long with some good stuff. But there is a lot to debate there. But I do have time to write a counter book going over all the issues he raised. Besides, I am very suspicious you are almost as stubborn as I so it would be useless.

Will say that like Mearshimer......of which he is an acolyte.....he criticizes what was done but never considers what may have happened if we followed a different path. While impossible to define with any certainty it is entire.y posi le the world may have been worse off than now.

I will say that this is indeed a disturbing scenario. Predicting Putin is always difficult and doing so if he is in a losing position. And if his health is failing that really complicates things. But IMO the alternatives are just as unsettling.

You get points for reading it, Spin.

On the other hand, it's only fair. After all, as a favor to you, I read that mind-numbing 7000-word speech by Putin that you posted here back in April.
 
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The Spin Meister

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Brits are sending Black Hornet micro drones. Miniature helicopters s long as your hand. So small they can fly into buildings. Reconnaissance only.

Imagine the fear of sitting in your bunk and one of these fly in! After that, you will fear every bird, every bug, every movement.
 

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