Troops withdraw from Lysyschansk

Ski

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Well, he paid a massive price to get what he got. Like I said, he will pause for a while. But he isn’t done.

Bingo. Russia took forces from other parts of Ukraine in order to launch an attack that took weeks to win territory of little strategic value. It has some propaganda value in that it completes the takeover of Luhansk, but came with a heavy price. Russia can't stand many more victories like it.

Let's see what happens when the Ukrainians launch their counterattacks by the end of summer with brand new Western weapons. The first HIMARS systems only arrived in country in the last two weeks. The tactics the Ruskies used against the outgunned Ukrainians in this battle won't be able to be repeated against an opponent that can now reach out and touch Russian artillery that it could not reach previously.

"Experts" have said the war has been over for months, but again here we are.
 

Ski

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Putin is getting destroyed I thought.
How is he going to do that?

He isn't. He took a beating taking what he has taken and no longer can outrange the Ukrainian artillery. It is going to take weeks to reconstitute enough force to launch another major offensive. In the meantime, more shiny new Western weapons are arriving in Ukraine and a sanctions impeded Kremlin is taking "special measures in the economic sphere" due to shortages of supplies, including materials needed to repair military equipment. Your hero Putin may prevail, but there is still a long slog to go.
 

LionDeNittany

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He isn't. He took a beating taking what he has taken and no longer can outrange the Ukrainian artillery. It is going to take weeks to reconstitute enough force to launch another major offensive. In the meantime, more shiny new Western weapons are arriving in Ukraine and a sanctions impeded Kremlin is taking "special measures in the economic sphere" due to shortages of supplies, including materials needed to repair military equipment. Your hero Putin may prevail, but there is still a long slog to go.

There's a new one: Putin is my hero

LdN
 

The Spin Meister

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Heard today on radio that the UN is so concerned about massive global famine that they are considering escorting ships in and out of Odessa to get Ukrainian grain onto the world markets. Worried that Putin would fire on a NATO ship. That will make things interesting.
 

Hotshoe

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As I said months ago, Kiev was never the goal, just the easiest strategy to take over, and that wasn't the primary goal. The goal was always Southern Ukraine. He takes Odessa and it's game over for Ukraine. They won't have a single port. Putin then controls all the gas, oil, and all food shipments. He will have some of the largest oil reserves and the largest gas reserves in the world. That in just a little over 4 months. How bad has Putin been hurt?
 

rumble_lion

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As I said months ago, Kiev was never the goal, just the easiest strategy to take over, and that wasn't the primary goal. The goal was always Southern Ukraine. He takes Odessa and it's game over for Ukraine. They won't have a single port. Putin then controls all the gas, oil, and all food shipments. He will have some of the largest oil reserves and the largest gas reserves in the world. That in just a little over 4 months. How bad has Putin been hurt?

Russia is doing great.

If Russia defaulting on its foreign debt for the first time since the Bolshevik revolution wasn't a clear enough sign of the impact Western sanctions are having on the Russian economy, a new report on the country's socio-economic situation leaves no margin for doubt that the Russian economy is gradually collapsing.​
Above all, car production has suffered, and it's now down by 96.7 percent compared to 2021. Production of trucks plunged by 39.3 percent, that of diesel and gasoline engines by 57 percent, that of diesel locomotives by 63.2 percent and that of freight wagons by 51.8 percent.​
French automaker Renault, which controls Russia's largest carmaker AvtoVAZ, suspended operations at its Moscow plant in March, under pressure from Ukrainian leaders to act in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Renault later agreed to sell its Russian operations for a nominal payment.​
Other products were also affected.​
The production of fridges is also down by 58.1 percent compared with 2021 levels, that of washing machines by 59.2 percent, that of AC electric motors by 49.9 percent. TV sets were down by 49.7 percentage points.​
Production of elevators is down by 34.7 percent and that of excavators was down by 60 percent. Curiously, cigarette production also dropped by 24.5 percent.​
 

Hotshoe

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Russia is doing great.

If Russia defaulting on its foreign debt for the first time since the Bolshevik revolution wasn't a clear enough sign of the impact Western sanctions are having on the Russian economy, a new report on the country's socio-economic situation leaves no margin for doubt that the Russian economy is gradually collapsing.​
Above all, car production has suffered, and it's now down by 96.7 percent compared to 2021. Production of trucks plunged by 39.3 percent, that of diesel and gasoline engines by 57 percent, that of diesel locomotives by 63.2 percent and that of freight wagons by 51.8 percent.​
French automaker Renault, which controls Russia's largest carmaker AvtoVAZ, suspended operations at its Moscow plant in March, under pressure from Ukrainian leaders to act in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Renault later agreed to sell its Russian operations for a nominal payment.​
Other products were also affected.​
The production of fridges is also down by 58.1 percent compared with 2021 levels, that of washing machines by 59.2 percent, that of AC electric motors by 49.9 percent. TV sets were down by 49.7 percentage points.​
Production of elevators is down by 34.7 percent and that of excavators was down by 60 percent. Curiously, cigarette production also dropped by 24.5 percent.​
Dude, Russia is making over 20 billion/month thanks to China and India. Within a month, they'll control all of Southern Ukraine, every port, the entire Black Sea, and the Sea of Azov. They'll control all shipments in Ukraine. Get real.
 
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bdgan

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Heard today on radio that the UN is so concerned about massive global famine that they are considering escorting ships in and out of Odessa to get Ukrainian grain onto the world markets. Worried that Putin would fire on a NATO ship. That will make things interesting.
IMO that should have been done a long time ago. Tell Putin that we won't be directly involved in the war but only as long as shipping lanes are preserved.
 

Hotshoe

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Heard today on radio that the UN is so concerned about massive global famine that they are considering escorting ships in and out of Odessa to get Ukrainian grain onto the world markets. Worried that Putin would fire on a NATO ship. That will make things interesting.
Good luck with that. Russia holds the Black Sea around Odessa.
 

Hotshoe

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IMO that should have been done a long time ago. Tell Putin that we won't be directly involved in the war but only as long as shipping lanes are preserved.
The world is completely fked regarding Ukraine. Folks need to deal in reality. That pos is in control of everything at this point. This has become the worst possible war that could have occurred.
 
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LionDeNittany

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Good luck with that. Russia holds the Black Sea around Odessa.

Biden's not the guy, but my sense is diplomacy would work here.

Putin has fulfilled his initial mission.

Offer him sanctions relief for relief of the ports.

Probably need to get that comedien off the TV too.

LdN
 

BW Lion

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Biden's not the guy, but my sense is diplomacy would work here.

Putin has fulfilled his initial mission.

Offer him sanctions relief for relief of the ports.

Probably need to get that comedien off the TV too.

LdN
Why would/should Putin stop?

The Western Alliance short-sightedly tried to sanction his country into oblivion.

Putin prevailed so why should he be suddenly diplomatic?
 

LionDeNittany

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Why would/should Putin stop?

The Western Alliance short-sightedly tried to sanction his country into oblivion.

Putin prevailed so why should he be suddenly diplomatic?

Because he has the upper hand in diplomacy now and there is massive upside to his being able to sell to the weat.

That's exactly when diplomacy works, when both sides have an upside.
 

Hotshoe

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Biden's not the guy, but my sense is diplomacy would work here.

Putin has fulfilled his initial mission.

Offer him sanctions relief for relief of the ports.

Probably need to get that comedien off the TV too.

LdN
Totally disagree. He wants Odessa the most. He gets Odessa, Ukraine is land locked and there is nothing stopping him from taking Odessa. It falls within a month. I said this almost 4 months ago. This was all about controlling the Black Sea and every port.
 

bdgan

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Biden's not the guy, but my sense is diplomacy would work here.

Putin has fulfilled his initial mission.

Offer him sanctions relief for relief of the ports.

Probably need to get that comedien off the TV too.

LdN
There's no way that the UN/NATO countries will agree to reverse sanctions at this point.
 

BW Lion

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There's no way that the UN/NATO countries will agree to reverse sanctions at this point.
And that’s why I have never tried to time the market until a few months ago

I wish I sold my S&P indices at 4700, but I didn’t. I sold them all at 4500 and don’t plan on nibbling back on until we see 3200 or so. I’ll willingly take +1% return vs -10 or -20% negative return.

I have this gut feeling we’re going to see something break in the EM or HY markets that is going to be consequential.

When Marc Zuck signals that he’s going to “lop heads” , but hasn’t done so yet, we’re only the early stages of this correction.
 
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The Spin Meister

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Totally disagree. He wants Odessa the most. He gets Odessa, Ukraine is land locked and there is nothing stopping him from taking Odessa. It falls within a month. I said this almost 4 months ago. This was all about controlling the Black Sea and every port.
If he takes Odessa and all the ports he will eventually move on Kyiv. Probably wait until next winter when everything is froze over. Take six months or more to requip his forces, train more people, wear down what’s left of Ukraine. He wants it all and will make his move while a dementia ridden POTUS with the worst cabinet in history, along with a country in recession will be too weak to resist. Add in shutting off all the gas and oil to Europe so they freeze, starve, and have no economic activity.

We let him win now, there will be no stopping him by winter.
 

BW Lion

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If he takes Odessa and all the ports he will eventually move on Kyiv. Probably wait until next winter when everything is froze over. Take six months or more to requip his forces, train more people, wear down what’s left of Ukraine. He wants it all and will make his move while a dementia ridden POTUS with the worst cabinet in history, along with a country in recession will be too weak to resist. Add in shutting off all the gas and oil to Europe so they freeze, starve, and have no economic activity.

We let him win now, there will be no stopping him by winter.
Yep. He's going to starve Europe of energy so that they acquiesce to his terms of engagement.
 
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SheldonJoe2215

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And that’s why I have never tried to time the market until a few months ago

I wish I sold my S&P indices at 4700, but I didn’t. I sold them all at 4500 and don’t plan on nibbling back on until we see 3200 or so. I’ll willingly take +1% return vs -10 or -20% negative return.

I have this gut feeling we’re going to see something break in the EM or HY markets that is going to be consequential.

When Marc Zuck signals that he’s going to “lop heads” , but hasn’t done so yet, we’re only the early stages of this correction.
The challenge is that markets often bottom before the worst is in.
 

Jerry

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Does that mean we get our $40 billion back?

No. And it's well north of $40 billion now. Another package for $820 million was announced on Friday. Two weeks before that was a supplemental $1 billion. This is all on top of the $40 billion and the money allocated before the $40 billion.

Meanwhile, the people pulling Senile Joe's strings wheeled him out last week to say we're in this until the bitter end. As much money as it takes...as much time as it takes...to show the Rooskies who's the real boss of the world.

And if Ukraine survives...if the country doesn't bleed out entirely or if the conflict doesn't escalate to a point where the whole friggin' thing explodes all over the place...then comes the rebuild. It's already being called another "Marshall Plan."

The reconstruction of Ukraine will have an astronomical price tag, and the money will come out of the hides of ordinary Americans who are themselves trying to survive the economic disaster visited on them by Senile Joe and his Party.

Yes, our little proxy war is a very expensive proposition. But there was never a choice. I mean Sacred Democracy was at stake. Not only in Ukraine. Everywhere on earth. And probably throughout the galaxy.

That's now the Party Line...a nice little fairy tale and smokescreen for a policy that has been a historic act of folly from the beginning. Then again, you'll never lose money betting the "over" on the amount of damage that can be done by combining unchecked power with arrogance and incompetence.

"Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad." -- Ancient Greek playwright Euripides

"We had to destroy the village in order to save it." -- American infantry officer in Vietnam

"The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path, and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked." -- John Mearsheimer, University of Chicago, September 2015
 

The Spin Meister

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No. And it's well north of $40 billion now. Another package for $820 million was announced on Friday. Two weeks before that was a supplemental $1 billion. This is all on top of the $40 billion and the money allocated before the $40 billion.

Meanwhile, the people pulling Senile Joe's strings wheeled him out last week to say we're in this until the bitter end. As much money as it takes...as much time as it takes...to show the Rooskies who's the real boss of the world.

And if Ukraine survives...if the country doesn't bleed out entirely or if the conflict doesn't escalate to a point where the whole friggin' thing explodes all over the place...then comes the rebuild. It's already being called another "Marshall Plan."

The reconstruction of Ukraine will have an astronomical price tag, and the money will come out of the hides of ordinary Americans who are themselves trying to survive the economic disaster visited on them by Senile Joe and his Party.

Yes, our little proxy war is a very expensive proposition. But there was never a choice. I mean Sacred Democracy was at stake. Not only in Ukraine. Everywhere on earth. And probably throughout the galaxy.

That's now the Party Line...a nice little fairy tale and smokescreen for a policy that has been a historic act of folly from the beginning. Then again, you'll never lose money betting the "over" on the amount of damage that can be done by combining unchecked power with arrogance and incompetence.

"Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad." -- Ancient Greek playwright Euripides

"We had to destroy the village in order to save it." -- American infantry officer in Vietnam

"The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path, and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked." -- John Mearsheimer, University of Chicago, September 2015
Uh yes. If only we listened to you. Just give Putin what he wants. Give him half of Ukraine. After all, it is our fault. We dared accept Poland and the Baltics into NATO. No need to do such a silly thing because Russia would never be expansionist. They would never use force or invade a neighbor. Never use subterfuge to destabilize a government.

Wait....what......we interfered in Ukraine? If only we had just stayed the hell out Ukraine would be a strong independent democracy without any corruption! Putin only screwed with Ukraine because we did. It’s all our fault! Putin is a nice guy that only acted in self defense! We gave him no choice!
 
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bdgan

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He isn't. He took a beating taking what he has taken and no longer can outrange the Ukrainian artillery. It is going to take weeks to reconstitute enough force to launch another major offensive. In the meantime, more shiny new Western weapons are arriving in Ukraine and a sanctions impeded Kremlin is taking "special measures in the economic sphere" due to shortages of supplies, including materials needed to repair military equipment. Your hero Putin may prevail, but there is still a long slog to go.
I think you underestimate Putin. He'd rather lose half of his army than lose face.

Sanctions must be taking a toll but maybe less than we think. Places like China and India are happy to buy all of the oil and other goods they can produce.
 
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Catch50

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It was definitely worth it.
Zelensky is now a multi billionaire and we got to send billions to whoever we chose via "support"

I suppose it wasn't worth it for the poor bastards who got killed, but they don't matter to the powers that be.

LdN
Do you have proof about Zelensky now being a multi-billionaire?? "Jeez" is the kindest I can be with that claim.
 

Jerry

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Uh yes. If only we listened to you. Just give Putin what he wants. Give him half of Ukraine. After all, it is our fault. We dared accept Poland and the Baltics into NATO. No need to do such a silly thing because Russia would never be expansionist. They would never use force or invade a neighbor. Never use subterfuge to destabilize a government.

Wait....what......we interfered in Ukraine? If only we had just stayed the hell out Ukraine would be a strong independent democracy without any corruption! Putin only screwed with Ukraine because we did. It’s all our fault! Putin is a nice guy that only acted in self defense! We gave him no choice!

Oh c'mon, Spin. Most of your above comment, as it relates to the opinions I've actually expressed here, has only a tenuous relationship to reality. Moreover, none of it addresses the substance of my post. You just default immediately to a bunch of strawmen.

The fact is, you're agitated because we've had a long-running debate on this question, and every prediction I've made and every warning I've given have turned out to be right smack on target...and you know that very well.

This war has turned into a total shitshow: a disaster for Ukraine...a disaster for the Dem-Mediacrat government in Washington whose shortsighted and misguided policy set the stage for it...and a disaster for the hapless American citizenry which has the misfortune to be at the mercy of that government.

So this being the case, the only thing that Senile Joe and company can do is: A) claim they had no choice, which even by their standards ranks as ridiculous bullshit; and B) double down in their usual style, which is going to make everything even worse...if that's possible.

But OK, re your above "if only we listened to you," I can't even get my wife to listen to me, so what are my odds with Senile Joe and his friends who actually hate people like me?

That said, yes, guilty as charged, if they had listened to me, instead of being wrecked, Ukraine would now be a prosperous, independent nation. There would not be 7 million refugees. The global economy would not be turned on its head. Gas would not cost Americans $5 dollars a gallon. We would not be looking at a developing world order much less hospitable to American interests. And we would not be staring down the barrel of potential nuclear escalation. That's just a partial list. Thank heavens they didn't listen to me!
 
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Ski

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I think you underestimate Putin. He'd rather lose half of his army than lose face.

Sanctions must be taking a toll but maybe less than we think. Places like China and India are happy to buy all of the oil and other goods they can produce.

If Putin is making money hand over fist and his economy is not hurting then why is his military not paying all of its bills on time?

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 3

.....
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on July 3 that the Russian government’s inability to pay Russian firms supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine is degrading Russia’s ability to repair damaged vehicles. The GUR reported that the directors of Russian military vehicle repair centers are not accepting new Russian equipment for repair because the Russian military has not paid these centers for previous work.[7] Recently proposed Russian legislation suggests that Kremlin leadership shares GUR’s assessment. Russian legislators in the Russian State Duma submitted a bill on June 30 that would empower the Kremlin to introduce “special measures in the economic sphere” enabling the Russian government to force private Russian companies to provide supplies for Russian military operations.[8] The bill prohibits Russian businesses from refusing to fulfil Russian government procurement orders connected to Russian military operations.
.....
 
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The Spin Meister

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Oh c'mon, Spin. Most of your above comment, as it relates to the opinions I've actually expressed here, has only a tenuous relationship to reality. Moreover, none of it addresses the substance of my post. You just default immediately to a bunch of strawmen.

The fact is, you're agitated because we've had a long-running debate on this question, and every prediction I've made and every warning I've given have turned out to be right smack on target...and you know that very well.

This war has turned into a total shitshow: a disaster for Ukraine...a disaster for the Dem-Mediacrat government in Washington whose shortsighted and misguided policy set the stage for it...and a disaster for the hapless American citizenry which has the misfortune to be at the mercy of that government.

So this being the case, the only thing that Senile Joe and company can do is: A) claim they had no choice, which even by their standards ranks as ridiculous bullshit; and B) double down in their usual style, which is going to make everything even worse...if that's possible.

But OK, re your above "if only we listened to you," I can't even get my wife to listen to me, so what are my odds with Senile Joe and his friends who actually hate people like me?

That said, yes, guilty as charged, if they had listened to me, instead of being wrecked, Ukraine would now be a prosperous, independent nation. There would not be 7 million refugees. The global economy would not be turned on its head. Gas would not cost Americans $5 dollars a gallon. We would not be looking at a developing world order much less hospitable to American interests. And we would not be staring down the barrel of potential nuclear escalation. That's just a partial list. Thank heavens they didn't listen to me!
It’s the Fourth of July. Enjoy and celebrate with your family. I will resume kicking your butt another day😉
 
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