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Thread on testing & treatment research for COVID-19

Interesting video that illustrates some key points on the similarity of death rates by climate/region, the effectiveness of lockdowns and the elevated case rate in the USA due to over-amplification of PCR test cycles.
 
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Interesting video that illustrates some key points on the similarity of death rates by climate/region, the effectiveness of lockdowns and the elevated case rate in the USA due to over-amplification of PCR test cycles.
Given what has been happening in Europe over the last few weeks, it would not be wise to be saying this is essentially over.
Get back to us in 3 months.
 
What's going on in Europe illustrates that lockdowns don't work. Check out Sweden.
I hope this guy is right, but we will see. A lot of Sweden did not see cases anywhere close to what was going on in Stockholm. We don’t really have a handle on how many vulnerable people there are in any given nation. This virus definitely has some seasonality. Hopefully the death rate won’t rise appreciably over the Northern Hemisphere winter.
I agree that lockdowns are a very crude and costly remedy.
 
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This something I have been saying for at least three months. Not that I am that smart but that’s what the evidence shows. Cities spike in 10-14 weeks and then decline with only a small spike when people are allowed out and about. Studies have shown that is the pattern world wide irregardless of methodology used to inhibit spread. It’s why 80% are asymptomatic or only get mild symptoms.

From the article:


The conventional wisdom is that lockdown occurred as the epidemic curve was rising,” Gupta explained. “So once you remove lockdown that curve should continue to rise.” But that is not happening in places like New York, London, and Stockholm. The question is why.

“If it were the case that in London the disease hadn’t disseminated too widely, and only 15% have experienced the virus [as serology tests indicate] . . . under those circumstances, if you lift lockdown, you should see an immediate and commensurate increase in cases, as we have observed in many other settings,” Gupta told The BMJ, “But that hasn’t happened. That is just a fact. The question is why.”



And some great news:


T cell studies have received scant media attention, in contrast to research on antibodies, which seem to dominate the news (probably, says Buggert, because antibodies are easier, faster, and cheaper to study than T cells). Two recent studies reported that naturally acquired antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 begin to wane after just 2-3 months, fuelling speculation in the lay press about repeat infections.282930

But T cell studies allow for a substantially different, more optimistic, interpretation. In the Singapore study, for example, SARS-CoV-1 reactive T cells were found in SARS patients 17 years after infection. “Our findings also raise the possibility that long lasting T cells generated after infection with related viruses may be able to protect against, or modify the pathology caused by, infection with SARS-CoV-2,”8 the investigators wrote.
 
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From linked article:


Early indications suggest the number of clinically trivial positive cases in the U.S. might be startlingly high. The New York Times said last month that a review of the cycle thresholds of positive cases in Nevada, New York and Massachusetts indicated that “up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus.”

Those numbers, if extrapolated nationwide, could suggest that a significant proportion of the mitigation and preparation measures currently in place across the U.S. might be excessive relative to the actual level of infectious cases around the country.
 
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