John Campbell is a UK health professional who has been posting videos on YouTube about the pandemic since January, 2020. He has arguably been the most reliable source of information for general audiences on the subject.
Thread on testing & treatment research for COVID-19
- Thread starter dailybuck777
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It's likely the uk variant is alive and well in the usa and has been for a while
If you aren’t looking for something, I guess you won’t find it.
My friend who's an immunologist at the National Institute of Health has said they figure it was here before Christmas for sure maybe even as early as Thanksgiving. As mentioned if you're not looking for that specific strain you're not going to find it.
Little update from yesterday. Another 1.3M doses administered yesterday which the last four days are 1.6M, 1.3M, 1.4M, 1.3M. Total is now at 21.1M administered in the USA. So states have figured this out and are really putting the needles in now.
Total doses delivered now are 41.4M and considering yesterday the number was 39.9M, means 1.5M doses were delivered to the states. So it appears that for every dose that is being delivered, states have the capacity to give it to a person. Also, pleasantly surprised that 1.5M doses per day were delivered, I will continue to track that number as that is probably right now the single most important number in the world in how many doses of vaccine can the pharma companies deliver daily.
Total doses delivered now are 41.4M and considering yesterday the number was 39.9M, means 1.5M doses were delivered to the states. So it appears that for every dose that is being delivered, states have the capacity to give it to a person. Also, pleasantly surprised that 1.5M doses per day were delivered, I will continue to track that number as that is probably right now the single most important number in the world in how many doses of vaccine can the pharma companies deliver daily.
We really need the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to get to the levels we need.
no doubt, plus AZ as well. I am going to try and track the doses distributed daily and will post to see if that 1.5M is just an anomaly or repeated day to day as for whatever reason, I don't see anybody tracking that number which is really strange since it is the MOST important number out there.
If that 1.5M dose per day is real, that is 750k people per day fully vaccinated. Have to believe J&J is at least 500K per day production rates (hopefully more) which than ups the daily vaccinated to 1.25M since J&J is one dose. Let's saw AZ is another 500k per day (double dose) which means by end of March should/could be at 1.5M per day vaccinated. If we can get there, this summer should start to get to closer to 'normal' assuming the politicans will allow it (a huge IF that I have no faith will happen) and hopefully by Labor day we can have kids in school and back to near normalcy.
The AZ vaccine has to get EUA first. That doesn't appear likely until April at the very earliest thanks to the FDA.
1.3M shots yesterday so total up to 22.4M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.16M (first time over a million administered on the 7 day).
Doses delivered number did not change from the 41.1M from yesterday. Hopefully just a reporting glitch and not that none actually were delivered.
135,000 positives reported yesterday, which is the lowest daily total in over 2+ months since November 9th. 7-day rolling average down to 173, 753.
7-day rolling fatality at 3182 which has been constant the past 5 days.
Hospitalization charts for all 50 states on the decline, some dropping extremely fast. California finally under 30% of beds due to Covid. Have to believe that has to start translating to the fatality rate soon. Daily case load peaked on Jan 12th, so 2 weeks ago. If I remember the fatality curve generally followed case load by about 2-3 weeks so hopefully should see that curve start to go down this week.
Ken Frazier's bonus will probably only be 15 million this year as a result
gargantuan news if true and the one shot high immunity is true. combine this with the fact the J&J vaccine does not have the same stringent refrigeration requirements of Pfizer/Moderna and essentially can be handled like a normal vaccine and means that the whole CVS/Walgreens/Pharmacy route can be used to administer this vaccine not much different then they do the normal flu vaccine. which means that the amount of vaccines that will be able to be pricked into people should greatly increase as those pharmacies have all that infracstructure in place already.
as much of a negative nellie as I have been about this all along, if J&J can get approved by mid February and have 100 million doses ready to go essentially, AND if Pfizer/Moderna don't have any production issues like it appears AZ is having, AND the states/politicians don't do anything stupid, the pathway to a relatively 'normal' summer is within grasp.
@ Cletus11 Thanks for these great updates. Do you know what the J&J Vaccine host fluid that will be used?? Many flu vaccines use raw egg whites (Albumen?) and of course I am allergic to that.
I have read that Pfizer and Moderna do not use egg whites. Thanks again for your efforts to keep us informed
New strains, yet numbers are going down, way down. Previously closed states about to open up. People having trouble getting vaccinated, yet cases shrink.
I had it and got very sick so spare me with the "don't have compassion" for the virus.
My question is what is going on out there? Or is this so obvious we all were complete idiots for almost a year?
I had it and got very sick so spare me with the "don't have compassion" for the virus.
My question is what is going on out there? Or is this so obvious we all were complete idiots for almost a year?
We'll see. I would not characterize what I posted as anything close to gargantuan news. We've yet to see Phase 3 data on J&J's vaccine candidate, though there are rumors that it may be released pretty soon. If I recall correctly, the limited data that we have seen indicates that the J&J vaccine has 70-75% efficacy, versus @ 95% efficacy for the Pfizer and the Moderna viruses. 70-75% efficacy is better than nothing, but it still leaves one that is exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus a 1 in 4 chance of catching COVID-19.
There are also rumors that the Phase 3 data for NoraVax's vaccine candidate are pretty close to being released. IF both J&J's candidate and NoraVax's candidate prove to have high efficacy, and IF both companies can release the large quantity of vaccine doses that they have indicated are possible, then there is a high probability that most Americans can be vaccinated by the summer. There are a couple of really large IFs in the aforementioned, so I think any reaction to company releases should be tempered.
The AZ vaccine candidate is also in the mix, but despite @interrobang's ranting about the FDA, it is AZ that screwed up their Phase 3 trial, not the FDA. AZ is basically re-doing their Phase 3 trial in the USA, with 30,000 participants. The latest timeline I saw on AZ's Phase 3 trial and the FDA is either the testing will be completed in April, or that's when they expect to be in a position to submit a proposal for an EUA to the FDA (I forget which; don't have time to look it up now). The AZ vaccine has been approved in the UK, but they have a lower threshold for what is required to get approval. India, Argentina, and Mexico have also approved the AZ vaccine, and the EU appears to be poised to do so this week or next week. In the original Phase 3 trial, which only featured @ 5,800 participants, the efficacy of the vaccine was shown to be @ 62%, which is even lower than the numbers listed above for J&J, and much lower than the Pfizer and Moderna numbers. There was a small subset of the original AZ Phase 3 trial that mistakenly was given a smaller dose of the first shot, and ended up showing an efficacy of 90%. Scientists have a lot of doubts that the 90% efficacy will appear in the larger Phase 3 trial that AZ is currently conducting, but only time will tell for sure.
The screw up didn't bother the UK. And that screw up ended up being penicillin moment of good fortune.
The FDA is the gold standard in drug evaluations. The UK takes the data that a drug company gives them and uses just that for their evaluation. The FDA requires all of the data from the Phase 3 study, and both their independent advisory board, as well as the FDA scientists, bore through the data, and look for anything the company has tried to gloss over.
Using the UK to back up your belief that the FDA screwed up is like playing Russian Roulette, and believing since the prior contestant didn't die the game is safe for you.
As for the screw up, it's yet to be proven that it's a "penicillin moment of good fortune." As I indicated in my post, the number of testers for which this screw-up took place were pretty small. Most scientists that are experts at this stuff feel that 1) you can't extrapolate much from the small number of testers that got the incorrect dosage in the 1st shot of the Phase 3 test, and 2) it's highly unlikely that the 90% efficacy will be reached in the larger Phase 3 test AZ is currently conducting.
Come on Tom....I noted in my post that if the J&J one shot news is true/real and they have the doses they say they do (which I know drug companies have been doing some level of overstating things but I doubt that J&J is saying 100M doses by spring if they don't already have 50+M doses already and know their production quotas).
And not sure how 100M doses of a vaccine available whether it is 75% or 90% effective is not HUGE news. Fauci was on last week and said he expects J&J to submit to the FDA within 2-3 weeks, so Fauci isn't saying that if he doesn't know. And not sure how 100M doses of a vaccine isn't huge news, that is 1/3 of the US population and between those 100M doses and Pfizer/Moderna 40+ Million out there and maybe another 40+ Million in the next 5 months puts us at near 200M doses by Memorial day which is what you need for herd immunity to really kick in (not to mention that somewhere between 40-60M people have antibodies due to already having Covid and the suspected 10-20% of the population that appears to have natural immunity to Covid based on previous flu virus in their past).
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J&J was targeting 12mm doses by the end of February and looks like it may fall short.
J&J Covid 19 Vaccine Development
that sucks if true. If only at 10M doses by end of February, don't see how they get close to 100M doses by June like they are saying. Who knows what to believe anymore. 10M doses starting February is better than if they weren't getting approved until June, but only will move the needle (no pun intended) so much. Would mean USA looking more like by Memorial day hope to get the over 65 crowd mostly vaccinated along with some percentage of under 65 with conditions. If the 100M doses was real, would have both of them fully vaccinated and would be starting the mass vaccination of everybody else by that Memorial day target.
Autumn COVID-19 surge dates in Europe correlated to latitudes, not to temperature-humidity, pointing to vitamin D as contributing factor - Scientific Reports
To determine the factor triggering the sudden surge of daily new COVID-19 cases arising in most European countries during the autumn of 2020. The dates of the surge were determined using a fitting of the two last months of reported daily new cases in 18 European countries with latitude ranging...
www.nature.com
Pfizer had manufacturing problems, but things turned out fine
www.fiercepharma.com
Moderna had manufacturing concerns, but things turned out fine
www.cnbc.com
AstraZeneca now has manufacturing concerns. I'm guessing things will turn out fine for them too.
www.wsj.com
And I'm sure things will be just fine for J&J as well
Pfizer facing 'various challenges' in COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing, dosing: feds
Turns out securing enough raw materials to make millions of doses of its COVID-19 vaccine is far from Pfizer's only challenge, government officials said Wednesday. New questions are emerging, including whether doses inadvertently stored at temperatures that are colder than what's recommended are...
www.fiercepharma.com
Moderna had manufacturing concerns, but things turned out fine
Moderna's coronavirus vaccine maker identifies 'big challenges' to mass production
Manufacturing sites, skilled personnel and temperature control — just some of the challenges facing vaccine makers now.
AstraZeneca now has manufacturing concerns. I'm guessing things will turn out fine for them too.
AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 Vaccine Shortfall Threatens EU Plans to Boost Inoculations
The drugmaker expects to deliver tens of millions fewer Covid-19 vaccine doses than planned to the EU in coming months, threatening the continent’s efforts to increase vaccinations and delivering a fresh reputational blow to the company.
www.wsj.com
And I'm sure things will be just fine for J&J as well
Pfizer had manufacturing problems, but things turned out fine
Pfizer facing 'various challenges' in COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing, dosing: feds
Turns out securing enough raw materials to make millions of doses of its COVID-19 vaccine is far from Pfizer's only challenge, government officials said Wednesday. New questions are emerging, including whether doses inadvertently stored at temperatures that are colder than what's recommended are...
Moderna had manufacturing concerns, but things turned out fine
Moderna's coronavirus vaccine maker identifies 'big challenges' to mass production
Manufacturing sites, skilled personnel and temperature control — just some of the challenges facing vaccine makers now.
AstraZeneca now has manufacturing concerns. I'm guessing things will turn out fine for them too.
AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 Vaccine Shortfall Threatens EU Plans to Boost Inoculations
The drugmaker expects to deliver tens of millions fewer Covid-19 vaccine doses than planned to the EU in coming months, threatening the continent’s efforts to increase vaccinations and delivering a fresh reputational blow to the company.
And I'm sure things will be just fine for J&J as well
"Just fine" for J&J is not going to be 50mm doses by the end of February.
Geezzzz Dude, one article is from Nov 17 the other from Dec 17. You’re freaking out out pour old Cletus here with old news.Pfizer had manufacturing problems, but things turned out fine
Pfizer facing 'various challenges' in COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing, dosing: feds
Turns out securing enough raw materials to make millions of doses of its COVID-19 vaccine is far from Pfizer's only challenge, government officials said Wednesday. New questions are emerging, including whether doses inadvertently stored at temperatures that are colder than what's recommended are...
Moderna had manufacturing concerns, but things turned out fine
Moderna's coronavirus vaccine maker identifies 'big challenges' to mass production
Manufacturing sites, skilled personnel and temperature control — just some of the challenges facing vaccine makers now.
AstraZeneca now has manufacturing concerns. I'm guessing things will turn out fine for them too.
AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 Vaccine Shortfall Threatens EU Plans to Boost Inoculations
The drugmaker expects to deliver tens of millions fewer Covid-19 vaccine doses than planned to the EU in coming months, threatening the continent’s efforts to increase vaccinations and delivering a fresh reputational blow to the company.
And I'm sure things will be just fine for J&J as well
It's not meant to be new news. Just that all the major western vaccines have had manufacturing issues of some sort.
Any company, building any new product, that is meant to be distributed to 6 billion people within 3-9 months of approval is going to have problems meeting that schedule.
I have no idea what they are using as precursors, what reagents and catalysts are required, what machinery/production systems are required, what testing/quality control are needed, what packaging and containers are needed. But stands to reason that such a massive undertaking in such an accelerated manufacturing cycle is going to have some hiccups.
And all those issues are amplified by the fact that most Pharma manufacturing is done over seas, most in China and Taiwan. Plus, there are dozens, if not hundreds, of companies all trying to develop vaccines, manufacture them, and get them on the market, competing for the same materials. It quite amazing that things have gone as well as they have.
