Thoughts on the continuing Ukraine disaster...six months in

Jerry

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May 29, 2001
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Amid the fog of war and blizzard of Western propaganda, I take the reports of a Ukie breakthrough on the southern front with a large grain of salt. Ukie forces may have made some forward progress. We'll see what happens next. A Ukie victory there would be huge, but I'm inclined to wait until the blue and yellow flag is raised over Kherson's town hall before believing it.

If you read the Google News Feed, you know that for months now it has been chock full of doomsday stories about the supposed dire predicament of the Russian military. But if things were as bad as some of those reports claim, the Ukie army would be approaching the gates of Moscow now. Instead, there seems to be little change on the ground. The Russians have taken heavy losses but appear to have dug in.

The sanctions have hurt Russia...but hurt the Western powers which imposed them even more. Europe is in full panic mode about the upcoming winter without Russian gas. In fact, David Goldman of PJ Media recently called the Western sanctions the biggest "own goal" in living memory. It ranks right up there with Hitler's invasion of the Soviet Union.

To be clear, by "Western powers," I mean the citizenry of those nations. The West's ruling nomenklatura and its Dem-Media Washington chapter -- Zelensky has been made an honorary member -- which is financing this war in the supposed cause of saving global democracy from the Rooskie menace, will not itself suffer any inconvenience. Their privileged lives will continue as before. Only the ordinary peasants, which includes all of us and the Ukrainian people too, will foot the bill.

Linked below is a good piece this morning from Rod Dreher with Tucker Carlson's excellent commentary from last night embedded at the bottom. Rod correctly calls the Russians the bad guys in this drama. But he gets one thing wrong: he says Russia is winning and in fact has effectively already won. He's way off-base there. On the contrary, my prediction at the beginning of the war looks better and better: Nobody is winning. Nobody will win. Nobody can win. The only certain thing at this point is that all sides will lose. And the only question is how bad the loss will be.

 
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WeR0206

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Apr 9, 2014
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2020evidence.org
Coverage is all but gone from USA mainstream news
Bc they can no longer prop up the false narrative that Ukraine is kicking russia’s ass etc. in reality Russia has been making steady and methodical gains. They’ve also uncovered a shit ton of shady deep state biolabs that establishment US pols are up to their eyeballs in (think bidens and metabiota).


A5Talvi.jpg
(Coordination of biological laboratories and scientific research institutes of Ukraine and USA)

https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F100ee6d6-8b95-4163-9399-d29104a3fa76_828x466.webp
 

Sullivan

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Amid the fog of war and blizzard of Western propaganda, I take the reports of a Ukie breakthrough on the southern front with a large grain of salt. Ukie forces may have made some forward progress. We'll see what happens next. A Ukie victory there would be huge, but I'm inclined to wait until the blue and yellow flag is raised over Kherson's town hall before believing it.

If you read the Google News Feed, you know that for months now it has been chock full of doomsday stories about the supposed dire predicament of the Russian military. But if things were as bad as some of those reports claim, the Ukie army would be approaching the gates of Moscow now. Instead, there seems to be little change on the ground. The Russians have taken heavy losses but appear to have dug in.

The sanctions have hurt Russia...but hurt the Western powers which imposed them even more. Europe is in full panic mode about the upcoming winter without Russian gas. In fact, David Goldman of PJ Media recently called the Western sanctions the biggest "own goal" in living memory. It ranks right up there with Hitler's invasion of the Soviet Union.

To be clear, by "Western powers," I mean the citizenry of those nations. The West's ruling nomenklatura and its Dem-Media Washington chapter -- Zelensky has been made an honorary member -- which is financing this war in the supposed cause of saving global democracy from the Rooskie menace, will not itself suffer any inconvenience. Their privileged lives will continue as before. Only the ordinary peasants, which includes all of us and the Ukrainian people too, will foot the bill.

Linked below is a good piece this morning from Rod Dreher with Tucker Carlson's excellent commentary from last night embedded at the bottom. Rod correctly calls the Russians the bad guys in this drama. But he gets one thing wrong: he says Russia is winning and in fact has effectively already won. He's way off-base there. On the contrary, my prediction at the beginning of the war looks better and better: Nobody is winning. Nobody will win. Nobody can win. The only certain thing at this point is that all sides will lose. And the only question is how bad the loss will be.


Maybe the big guy should host another summit.
 
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Aardvark86

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Oh I don’t know. I think the Ukrainians are doing just fine. I agree that sanctions have been a net negative.

but I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. When Biden said “come talk to me in 30 days” it was a ****ing joke. Our main failure was failing to put us non offensive troops in harms way before the first shots were fired. They didn’t, so the costs to vlad to go for it were both predictable and low. Billions of dollars and who knows how many lives later that was an incredibly sad lack of courage by the president.
 
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DJ Spanky

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When will Putin realize he's lost and end his folly?

I don't think he will. And he hasn't lost: he's consolidated a buffer zone with taking eastern Ukraine along with a land bridge to Crimea. Even with the influx of western weapons, I don't see Ukraine rolling Russia back.
 

Ski

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May 29, 2001
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I don't think he will. And he hasn't lost: he's consolidated a buffer zone with taking eastern Ukraine along with a land bridge to Crimea. Even with the influx of western weapons, I don't see Ukraine rolling Russia back.

It is going to come down to does Ukraine lose its Western funding/weapons before Russia is bled dry in Ukraine? Right now, the goal has to be to make it a slog and make it too expensive for Russia to stay in the occupied territories. The Vietnamese didn't roll back US gains, we left the country when lack of support at home made it politically too expensive to continue to pay in blood and treasure. Without way more offensive weaponry than they now possess this has to be Ukraine's goal for the time being.
 

Darth_VadEER

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Dec 14, 2010
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Oh I don’t know. I think the Ukrainians are doing just fine. I agree that sanctions have been a net negative.

but I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. When Biden said “come talk to me in 30 days” it was a ****ing joke. Our main failure was failing to put us non offensive troops in harms way before the first shots were fired. They didn’t, so the costs to vlad to go for it were both predictable and low. Billions of dollars and who knows how many lives later that was an incredibly sad lack of courage by the president.

We didn't want to do anything to actually prevent this....people need to understand this. This war was one we wanted.
 

Jerry

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May 29, 2001
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Oh I don’t know. I think the Ukrainians are doing just fine. I agree that sanctions have been a net negative.

but I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. When Biden said “come talk to me in 30 days” it was a ****ing joke. Our main failure was failing to put us non offensive troops in harms way before the first shots were fired. They didn’t, so the costs to vlad to go for it were both predictable and low. Billions of dollars and who knows how many lives later that was an incredibly sad lack of courage by the president.

It depends on the definition of "fine," Aard.

Their military, supplied with high-tech U.S. weapons, has done more than fine. And it's not just the weapons. Give them all the credit in the world for bravery and fighting spirit. They refused to lay down in front of an enemy that on paper was (and still is) vastly superior.

On the other hand, there's the little matter of 10 million refugees, a destroyed economy, 20% of the country now under occupation, the offshore energy reserves in possession of the enemy, most maritime access cut off...and no end in sight. That's not so fine.

Zelensky and his little lady, on the other hand, are doing fine indeed: posing for Vogue photo layouts, rolling in tens of billions of dollars in foreign aid with no effective accounting, basking in hero status manufactured by the Western propaganda machine. Plus the guy knows that if everything goes to hell, he can always get a gig on CNN.

As for the idea of putting U.S. troops on the ground in Ukraine before the war...or during it...or afterward...or ever...that strikes me as madness. Then again, madness is the Flavor of the Day, so why not.
 

Jerry

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May 29, 2001
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It is going to come down to does Ukraine lose its Western funding/weapons before Russia is bled dry in Ukraine? Right now, the goal has to be to make it a slog and make it too expensive for Russia to stay in the occupied territories. The Vietnamese didn't roll back US gains, we left the country when lack of support at home made it politically too expensive to continue to pay in blood and treasure. Without way more offensive weaponry than they now possess this has to be Ukraine's goal for the time being.

I don't think the Ukrainians have to worry about losing Western weapons or funding, Ski. Senile Joe has already written them a blank check.

"As long as it takes...as much as it takes." Those were our President's words. Or more importantly, those were the words of the people writing his scripts and pulling his strings...and they're the ones running things after all.
 
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2lion70

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I don't think he will. And he hasn't lost: he's consolidated a buffer zone with taking eastern Ukraine along with a land bridge to Crimea. Even with the influx of western weapons, I don't see Ukraine rolling Russia back.
I think the Ukrainians have a good chance of pushing the Russians back on a number of fronts. The long range artillery and drones are destroying a huge amount of russian ammunition, gas, and armor. The people back home in Russia are not happy with the losses being taken and the armed forces of Russia are not well trained.
 
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The Spin Meister

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An altered state
Amid the fog of war and blizzard of Western propaganda, I take the reports of a Ukie breakthrough on the southern front with a large grain of salt. Ukie forces may have made some forward progress. We'll see what happens next. A Ukie victory there would be huge, but I'm inclined to wait until the blue and yellow flag is raised over Kherson's town hall before believing it.

If you read the Google News Feed, you know that for months now it has been chock full of doomsday stories about the supposed dire predicament of the Russian military. But if things were as bad as some of those reports claim, the Ukie army would be approaching the gates of Moscow now. Instead, there seems to be little change on the ground. The Russians have taken heavy losses but appear to have dug in.

The sanctions have hurt Russia...but hurt the Western powers which imposed them even more. Europe is in full panic mode about the upcoming winter without Russian gas. In fact, David Goldman of PJ Media recently called the Western sanctions the biggest "own goal" in living memory. It ranks right up there with Hitler's invasion of the Soviet Union.

To be clear, by "Western powers," I mean the citizenry of those nations. The West's ruling nomenklatura and its Dem-Media Washington chapter -- Zelensky has been made an honorary member -- which is financing this war in the supposed cause of saving global democracy from the Rooskie menace, will not itself suffer any inconvenience. Their privileged lives will continue as before. Only the ordinary peasants, which includes all of us and the Ukrainian people too, will foot the bill.

Linked below is a good piece this morning from Rod Dreher with Tucker Carlson's excellent commentary from last night embedded at the bottom. Rod correctly calls the Russians the bad guys in this drama. But he gets one thing wrong: he says Russia is winning and in fact has effectively already won. He's way off-base there. On the contrary, my prediction at the beginning of the war looks better and better: Nobody is winning. Nobody will win. Nobody can win. The only certain thing at this point is that all sides will lose. And the only question is how bad the loss will be.

Please post the link where you said, before the war started, it would become an unwinnable stalemate for Russia. Don’t know of anybody that thought Ukraine would fight them to a stand off.

As for the for the current situation it doesn’t seem as if Ukraine is hanging from a frayed rope that was set on fire. They are doing pretty well considering. Kershon is in danger of falling to Ukraine with 20,000 Russian troops at risk of surrender and capture. Russia lost half its Black Sea air defense, it’s ‘Pride of the Black Sea’ flag ship, thousands of tanks, tens of thousands of troops. They are bringing old farts out of retirement, rushing new recruits in with out decent training or equipment, very low on supplies, had to pull much forces out of Crimea before they were destroyed. Not going well at all for Putinstan.

At this point, it looks like he is trying to maintain his ‘mopping up’ and desperately hold ground until winter sets in. Then he will shut off all the nat gas, destroy the electric grid, close ports, astarve and freeze not only Ukrainians but all of Europe for having the audacity of resisting his invasion.

Sanctions have hurt both sides. And Putinstan will feel them more as time goes on as they are losing a lot of critical imports to keep their economy alive. This winter is going to an economic war as much as a military war.

Right now , I would give Ukraine the edge as they have exceeded all expectations. If they can make advances this fall they could pressure some discussion of peace talks. But I doubt Putin would do so without serious losses. Taking Kershon with the capture of thousands of troops would be huge step. Follow,that up with some territorial gains in Crimea and it may end. But Putin is desperately trying to survive until winter so doubt he would ever retreat at all.

The winter will tell the tale. Just like every major war with Russia. Putin knows that history and believes it is his trump card. I have no idea how this winter will play out as it be brutal for all sides.
 
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LafayetteBear

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Please post the link where you said, before the war started, it would become an unwinnable stalemate for Russia. Don’t know of anybody that thought Ukraine would fight them to a stand off.

As for the for the current situation it doesn’t seem as if Ukraine is hanging from a frayed rope that was set on fire. They are doing pretty well considering. Kershon is in danger of falling to Ukraine with 20,000 Russian troops at risk of surrender and capture. Russia lost half its Black Sea air defense, it’s ‘Pride of the Black Sea’ flag ship, thousands of tanks, tens of thousands of troops. They are bringing old farts out of retirement, rushing new recruits in with out decent training or equipment, very low on supplies, had to pull much forces out of Crimea before they were destroyed. Not going well at all for Putinstan.

At this point, it looks like he is trying to maintain his ‘mopping up’ and desperately hold ground until winter sets in. Then he will shut off all the nat gas, destroy the electric grid, close ports, astarve and freeze not only Ukrainians but all of Europe for having the audacity of resisting his invasion.

Sanctions have hurt both sides. And Putinstan will feel them more as time goes on as they are losing a lot of critical imports to keep their economy alive. This winter is going to an economic war as much as a military war.

Right now , I would give Ukraine the edge as they have exceeded all expectations. If they can make advances this fall they could pressure some discussion of peace talks. But I doubt Putin would do so without serious losses. Taking Kershon with the capture of thousands of troops would be huge step. Follow,that up with some territorial gains in Crimea and it may end. But Putin is desperately trying to survive until winter so doubt he would ever retreat at all.

The winter will tell the tale. Just like every major war with Russia. Putin knows that history and believes it is his trump card. I have no idea how this winter will play out as it be brutal for all sides.
Pretty much THIS ^^^^. TSM is right. Jerry is way off base here. This war is certainly painful for Ukraine and its citizens, but it is putting some real hardship on Russia as well. I think the cost to the U.S. in terms of weapons shipments and economic assistance is more than offset by the opportunity to take Russia (and, in particular, Putin) down a peg, while at the same time vindicating Western values like democracy and sovereignty. (And, incidentally, the fact that Dr. Conspiracy Guy is against U.S. involvement in this war almost by definition means it is a good idea.)

One area where the Russians have done very well is in avoiding, at least for the short term, the negative effect of the Western oil boycott. They have had a lot of help from India (now Russia's biggest oil customer), China, and some Middle Eastern countries, most notably Saudi Arabia and Iran. They bring Russian oil (purchased at a discount price) into a port in the U.A.E. (can't recall the name of the port), where they mix it with crude from their own oil fields. They then sell the mixed oil at market price and reap a profit on the Russian oil. The Saudis have thus far rebuffed our requests to increase oil production, and have actually made noise about cutting production. With friends like that, who needs enemies?
 
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rutgersdave

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Jan 23, 2004
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Who can outlast the other one? No one is winning. Will the US stop supplying Ukraine the weapon necessary? Trump will cut off supplies if he wins in 2024. Can Russia still have enough manpower to join the arm forces without a mandatory draft?
 

Jerry

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May 29, 2001
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Please post the link where you said, before the war started, it would become an unwinnable stalemate for Russia. Don’t know of anybody that thought Ukraine would fight them to a stand off.

As for the for the current situation it doesn’t seem as if Ukraine is hanging from a frayed rope that was set on fire. They are doing pretty well considering. Kershon is in danger of falling to Ukraine with 20,000 Russian troops at risk of surrender and capture. Russia lost half its Black Sea air defense, it’s ‘Pride of the Black Sea’ flag ship, thousands of tanks, tens of thousands of troops. They are bringing old farts out of retirement, rushing new recruits in with out decent training or equipment, very low on supplies, had to pull much forces out of Crimea before they were destroyed. Not going well at all for Putinstan.

At this point, it looks like he is trying to maintain his ‘mopping up’ and desperately hold ground until winter sets in. Then he will shut off all the nat gas, destroy the electric grid, close ports, astarve and freeze not only Ukrainians but all of Europe for having the audacity of resisting his invasion.

Sanctions have hurt both sides. And Putinstan will feel them more as time goes on as they are losing a lot of critical imports to keep their economy alive. This winter is going to an economic war as much as a military war.

Right now , I would give Ukraine the edge as they have exceeded all expectations. If they can make advances this fall they could pressure some discussion of peace talks. But I doubt Putin would do so without serious losses. Taking Kershon with the capture of thousands of troops would be huge step. Follow,that up with some territorial gains in Crimea and it may end. But Putin is desperately trying to survive until winter so doubt he would ever retreat at all.

The winter will tell the tale. Just like every major war with Russia. Putin knows that history and believes it is his trump card. I have no idea how this winter will play out as it be brutal for all sides.

Please post the link where I predicted a Russian victory...or ever said the Russians were "winning." On the contrary, I've said repeatedly that the whole thing was lose-lose-lose from the beginning. As in, everybody would lose. And they have.

Plus I've been brutally honest since early on about the performance of Russian forces. Seriously, Spin, do a search on the word "Ukraine" under my authorship here going back one year. I never predicted a stalemate because I've always been honest about the limitations of what I'm in a position to know. But the word I've used consistently and accurately, to include in the title of this OP, is "disaster" or "catastrophe." That much I knew. That much anyone should have known.

Here's a transcript of one of our exchanges, dated March 17, only three weeks into the invasion. You're in bold. Almost six months later, I wouldn't change a word. In fact, I renew my gracious offer to confess error if the Ukies "win." But don't hold your breath waiting for such an admission because it does not appear likely on the horizon:

>>So you refuted that Putin isn’t evil? Musta missed that. And never said anything about the US or the west being pure as snow or even close to it. US screwed up a lot of countries and world dynamics for sure. But sometimes we do something right.

I refuted that Putin isn't evil? Uh, I think that's a double negative.

Evil is a strong word. I think Putin is an autocratic leader who is pursuing his country's interests as he sees them. Not to shock you, but I don't think he's any more innately "evil" than Senile Joe and his corrupt Party. And also not to shock you, but I consider Senile Joe and his corrupt Party to be a greater threat to the values that my family and I cherish than is Putin.

So the U.S. "screwed up a lot of countries." Is it because our leadership was "evil"? Or do we just get a pass because...Red, White, & Blue?

Actually no. You predicted, like the rest of us, that Putin wouldn’t invade the whole country but concentrate on the Donbas. Neither did you predict such a stout resistance by the Ukrainians. IIRC, your concern was NATO/US getting military involved with troops or air support, leading to quick and massive escalation.

Actually yes. I predicted that our policies had set and were setting the stage for a disaster and tragedy in Ukraine. And I was right on the button. I never predicted anything one way or the other about Ukrainian resistance nor for that matter did I predict a Russian military victory in Ukraine. I did assess -- not predict -- that the assembled Russian force was not large enough to mount a full-scale invasion of Ukraine...and I was right about that too. If the friggin' Russian command had been reading this site, maybe the dumb bastards wouldn't be in the mess they're in now.

Calling me a member of the ‘War Party’ is pretty bush league. I’ve learned over the years that is a sign of an opponent unsure of their position and fear of losing an argument.

Well there is a War Party in Washington, and the arguments you've made here align pretty closely with it. But OK, you're not a member. In any case, my comment was considerably less "bush-league" than your statement earlier in the thread that I gave advice that Russia should be allowed to seize Ukraine, which was a total fabrication.

No deal. Isn’t about who is right or wrong on an irrelevant internet chat board. Just discussing issues and trying to understand the world.

Let the record show that Spin declined to put his money where his mouth was. But the deal will remain on the table whenever you want it. I'll tell you this, with or without such a deal, if Ukraine somehow "wins" and Russia is correspondingly weakened to the point where Putin's rule is threatened, I'll admit I got it wrong.

If I had ever been wrong, I am sure I would have admitted it! ;)

LOL! Listen, you've been wrong repeatedly on this topic and I've yet to see an admission.

But seriously, I'll cop to having been wrong before. I think the last time was in 1987. ;) <<
 

The Spin Meister

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Nov 27, 2012
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Please post the link where I predicted a Russian victory...or ever said the Russians were "winning." On the contrary, I've said repeatedly that the whole thing was lose-lose-lose from the beginning. As in, everybody would lose. And they have.

Plus I've been brutally honest since early on about the performance of Russian forces. Seriously, Spin, do a search on the word "Ukraine" under my authorship here going back one year. I never predicted a stalemate because I've always been honest about the limitations of what I'm in a position to know. But the word I've used consistently and accurately, to include in the title of this OP, is "disaster" or "catastrophe." That much I knew. That much anyone should have known.

Here's a transcript of one of our exchanges, dated March 17, only three weeks into the invasion. You're in bold. Almost six months later, I wouldn't change a word. In fact, I renew my gracious offer to confess error if the Ukies "win." But don't hold your breath waiting for such an admission because it does not appear likely on the horizon:

>>So you refuted that Putin isn’t evil? Musta missed that. And never said anything about the US or the west being pure as snow or even close to it. US screwed up a lot of countries and world dynamics for sure. But sometimes we do something right.

I refuted that Putin isn't evil? Uh, I think that's a double negative.

Evil is a strong word. I think Putin is an autocratic leader who is pursuing his country's interests as he sees them. Not to shock you, but I don't think he's any more innately "evil" than Senile Joe and his corrupt Party. And also not to shock you, but I consider Senile Joe and his corrupt Party to be a greater threat to the values that my family and I cherish than is Putin.

So the U.S. "screwed up a lot of countries." Is it because our leadership was "evil"? Or do we just get a pass because...Red, White, & Blue?

Actually no. You predicted, like the rest of us, that Putin wouldn’t invade the whole country but concentrate on the Donbas. Neither did you predict such a stout resistance by the Ukrainians. IIRC, your concern was NATO/US getting military involved with troops or air support, leading to quick and massive escalation.

Actually yes. I predicted that our policies had set and were setting the stage for a disaster and tragedy in Ukraine. And I was right on the button. I never predicted anything one way or the other about Ukrainian resistance nor for that matter did I predict a Russian military victory in Ukraine. I did assess -- not predict -- that the assembled Russian force was not large enough to mount a full-scale invasion of Ukraine...and I was right about that too. If the friggin' Russian command had been reading this site, maybe the dumb bastards wouldn't be in the mess they're in now.

Calling me a member of the ‘War Party’ is pretty bush league. I’ve learned over the years that is a sign of an opponent unsure of their position and fear of losing an argument.

Well there is a War Party in Washington, and the arguments you've made here align pretty closely with it. But OK, you're not a member. In any case, my comment was considerably less "bush-league" than your statement earlier in the thread that I gave advice that Russia should be allowed to seize Ukraine, which was a total fabrication.

No deal. Isn’t about who is right or wrong on an irrelevant internet chat board. Just discussing issues and trying to understand the world.

Let the record show that Spin declined to put his money where his mouth was. But the deal will remain on the table whenever you want it. I'll tell you this, with or without such a deal, if Ukraine somehow "wins" and Russia is correspondingly weakened to the point where Putin's rule is threatened, I'll admit I got it wrong.

If I had ever been wrong, I am sure I would have admitted it! ;)

LOL! Listen, you've been wrong repeatedly on this topic and I've yet to see an admission.

But seriously, I'll cop to having been wrong before. I think the last time was in 1987. ;) <<
Now hold on there, buster. On the OP of this thread you said you predicted ....at the beginning.....nobody is winning, nobody will win, nobody can win. Haven’t seen a link to that prediction yet.

You bettA a update yer error logs.
 
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WeR0206

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Apr 9, 2014
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2020evidence.org
Please post the link where you said, before the war started, it would become an unwinnable stalemate for Russia. Don’t know of anybody that thought Ukraine would fight them to a stand off.

As for the for the current situation it doesn’t seem as if Ukraine is hanging from a frayed rope that was set on fire. They are doing pretty well considering. Kershon is in danger of falling to Ukraine with 20,000 Russian troops at risk of surrender and capture. Russia lost half its Black Sea air defense, it’s ‘Pride of the Black Sea’ flag ship, thousands of tanks, tens of thousands of troops. They are bringing old farts out of retirement, rushing new recruits in with out decent training or equipment, very low on supplies, had to pull much forces out of Crimea before they were destroyed. Not going well at all for Putinstan.

At this point, it looks like he is trying to maintain his ‘mopping up’ and desperately hold ground until winter sets in. Then he will shut off all the nat gas, destroy the electric grid, close ports, astarve and freeze not only Ukrainians but all of Europe for having the audacity of resisting his invasion.

Sanctions have hurt both sides. And Putinstan will feel them more as time goes on as they are losing a lot of critical imports to keep their economy alive. This winter is going to an economic war as much as a military war.

Right now , I would give Ukraine the edge as they have exceeded all expectations. If they can make advances this fall they could pressure some discussion of peace talks. But I doubt Putin would do so without serious losses. Taking Kershon with the capture of thousands of troops would be huge step. Follow,that up with some territorial gains in Crimea and it may end. But Putin is desperately trying to survive until winter so doubt he would ever retreat at all.

The winter will tell the tale. Just like every major war with Russia. Putin knows that history and believes it is his trump card. I have no idea how this winter will play out as it be brutal for all sides.
The absence of daily front line reports from journalists on the ground showing Ukrainian advances is a critical intelligence indicator of who is winning the battles in the Donbas.

Ukraine and the western propaganda outlets are projecting all of Ukraine's issues onto Russia and you're lapping it up. They project their war crimes onto Russia (see Bucha) and also their dire situation militarily. Air superiority is another huge factor that you happened to leave out. How many fixed wing, helicopter, drone, etc. aircraft does Ukraine have left? Russia owns the sky which is why they've been steady taking territory even though they are heavily outnumbered.

If putin was such a crazed madman why didn't he immediately order the destruction of all civilian infrastructure (gas, electricity, internet, etc.) back in Feb? Why are most of the non western established countries (including India) not joining the west in condemning putin + sanctions? That's odd huh? I wonder what they know that is being kept out of the western msm? Could it be that Ukraine was being used by the WEF globalist psychos to do dangerous gain of function research in shady biolabs, launder tens of BILLIONS in foreign aid, and God knows what else? Could it be that it was also using actual nazi militias to commit crimes against humanity on ethnic russians in Mariupol, donbass, and other areas and to also go after political opponents? The tribunals starting in Mariupol soon will be very eye opening to many people in the western msm echo chamber.

Ukraine was the deep state's corrupt little playground for years until Trump started snooping around their business so they freaked out and tried to removed him from office just for asking questions. Nothing to see here...

Pbl2yKl.jpg


Swamp rats LOVE them some Ukraine nazis!
52af48d3eab8eaf80f43dd66
(mcstain pictured with and Yatsenyuk (the future installed PM) and Oleh the nazi)
 
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Hotshoe

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Feb 15, 2012
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When will Putin realize he's lost and end his folly?
When did Putin lose? Your ignorance, as well as several others here, regarding Russia, is astonishing. Russia doesn't quit. They have a long history of war. History proves this true. They're very good at it and no circumstances have stopped them in the region.
 

WeR0206

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A dose of reality by Larry Johnson.



Do you want a recipe for disaster? Make sure you subordinate military strategy and tactics to political considerations. That is what happened to Ukraine in its long awaited counter offensive against Russian held Kherson in south Ukraine, which was launched on Sunday. The attack occurred at several points along the Kherson front. Here is a summary of the activity (note–AFU refers to Armed Forces of Ukraine, AFRF is the acronym for Armed Forces of the Russian Federation):

▪️
#Vysokopolye sector: AFU attacked #Olgino and #Vysokopolye, but heavy artillery fire thwarted their plans; fighting continues.
▪️
#Andreevka sector: AFU advanced several km towards Sukhoy Stavok and occupied the populated area. AFU advanced towards #Lozovoye. Fierce fighting is taking place on the outskirts.
▪️
#Snigirovka sector: AFRF repelled counterattack in #Blagodatnoye direction.
▪️
AFRF repelled offensive from Posad-Pokrovskoye direction.
▪️
#Pravdino lost, but retaken by AFRF.
▪️
#Nikolaev-#Kherson Trunk Road: AFRF repulsed AFU attack.
Ukraine only managed to capture Sukhoy Stavok, a small village with no strategic importance. The Ukrainian operation, however, proved very costly to Ukraine, which lost more than 1200 soldiers and almost 50 tanks. The tanks and tank crews are not easily nor quickly replaced. This does not even qualify as a Pyrrhic victory. The Russians still hold the territory.

So why now? Why did Ukraine launch the attacks without adequate support of close air support and artillery? Ukraine was coerced. Ukraine’s President Zelenski was “under pressure” to launch the counteroffensive, according to the New York Times:

As the bloody artillery battle in Ukraine’s east settles into a stalemate, the war appears now to be a waiting game for a long-promised Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The timing for any move to break the deadlock has emerged as a pivotal strategic decision for Ukraine’s government.

The initial target of any counterattack is widely assumed to be Russian positions on the western bank of the Dnipro River. Move too soon, though, and the Ukrainian army may prove unready and insufficiently armed to ensure victory, military analysts say. Wait too long, and political backing in Europe may waver as energy prices soar.
Political pressure is mounting for President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to make a move even as it remains unclear whether his military has amassed the necessary weaponry and manpower.
“The very difficult state of our economy, the constant risks of air and missile attacks and the general fatigue of the population from the difficulties of war will work against Ukraine” over time, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former minister of defense, wrote in the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper. He said the military should be prepared to advance, rather than defend.
If you think being pressured by the government funding your war is inconsequential, think again. I have witnessed how the United States applies pressure to guys we funded to carry out military operations they were not equipped or qualified to execute. In the fall of 1988 I was the CIA’s Honduran analyst. Nicaraguan Contras were “hidden” in CIA funded bases scattered along Honduras’ southern border with Nicaragua. In October 1988, Congress lifted the prohibition on funding and arming the Contras. The war was back on after a two year hiatus imposed because of the Iran Contra scandal, which became public following Eugene Hasenfus being shot down in October 1986 while trying to deliver air dropped supplies to Contra forces in the Honduran Bocay.

So the funding pipeline was open, the Contras were being armed and we, the analysts, waited for the ensuing battles to begin. But instead of Contra forces ambushing and destroying Nicaraguan military units, the Contras were being chewed to pieces. Why?

That is when I learned that the Contra forces were entering Nicaragua without weapons. One of my buddies who was involved in the logistics effort to supply the Contras tipped me off that the AK-47s the Contras were supposed to carry had not arrived. But, the Chief of the CIA’s Central American Task Force was under pressure from Congress and the White House to show progress. The Contras were refusing to cross the border without weapons and ammunition in hand. The CIA did not have any to give them. What to do?

The perfect bureaucratic solutionn–shutdown the Contra camps in Honduras and stop feeding them until they cross the Nicaraguan border. Bingo! All food supplies were curtailed and the Contras were told they would not receive rations and weapons until they crossed into Nicaragua. As a result, the hungry campesinos, grabbed their back packs and trudged across the border while the CIA Chiefs briefed the politicians downtown that the Contra invasion was underway. Victory!

What do you think happens to a 1000 unarmed guys wearing camo marching along a jungle trail in northern Nicaragua who are considered the enemies of Nicaragua? If you guessed, they are attacked, you are a winner. We, the analysts, were getting intel reports about the major casualties among the infiltrating Contra units and initially concluded that the Contras had no will to fight.

It was only after we learned they had no weapons and were coerced to enter Nicaragua unprepared to fight that we understood the perfidy of the CIA managers at Headquarters in charge of the war in Nicaragua. But there were still some CIA officers who were men of honor. One of the CIA paramilitary officers on the ground in southern Honduras was so outraged by the slaughter of the Contras that he ignored direct commands, grabbed a helicopter, flew into Nicaragua and started picking up wounded Contras and flew them to medical treatment in Honduras. He was fired subsequently for insubordination, but wore his dismissal as a badge of honor. For those of us who knew of his bravery and refusal to play the bureaucratic games, he was and remains a hero.

This is just one example of how politics interferes with sound military strategy and tactics. I am certain there are similar tales from Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. It appears that Ukraine was forced into launching ground attacks that could not compel the Russians to retreat. As a result, Ukraine incurred significant casualties and loss of key materiel and Russia remains in control of the territory around Kherson. It appears that the United States is doing to Ukraine what it did to the Contras. God help them.”
 

SheldonJoe2215

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A dose of reality by Larry Johnson.



Do you want a recipe for disaster? Make sure you subordinate military strategy and tactics to political considerations. That is what happened to Ukraine in its long awaited counter offensive against Russian held Kherson in south Ukraine, which was launched on Sunday. The attack occurred at several points along the Kherson front. Here is a summary of the activity (note–AFU refers to Armed Forces of Ukraine, AFRF is the acronym for Armed Forces of the Russian Federation):


Ukraine only managed to capture Sukhoy Stavok, a small village with no strategic importance. The Ukrainian operation, however, proved very costly to Ukraine, which lost more than 1200 soldiers and almost 50 tanks. The tanks and tank crews are not easily nor quickly replaced. This does not even qualify as a Pyrrhic victory. The Russians still hold the territory.

So why now? Why did Ukraine launch the attacks without adequate support of close air support and artillery? Ukraine was coerced. Ukraine’s President Zelenski was “under pressure” to launch the counteroffensive, according to the New York Times:


If you think being pressured by the government funding your war is inconsequential, think again. I have witnessed how the United States applies pressure to guys we funded to carry out military operations they were not equipped or qualified to execute. In the fall of 1988 I was the CIA’s Honduran analyst. Nicaraguan Contras were “hidden” in CIA funded bases scattered along Honduras’ southern border with Nicaragua. In October 1988, Congress lifted the prohibition on funding and arming the Contras. The war was back on after a two year hiatus imposed because of the Iran Contra scandal, which became public following Eugene Hasenfus being shot down in October 1986 while trying to deliver air dropped supplies to Contra forces in the Honduran Bocay.

So the funding pipeline was open, the Contras were being armed and we, the analysts, waited for the ensuing battles to begin. But instead of Contra forces ambushing and destroying Nicaraguan military units, the Contras were being chewed to pieces. Why?

That is when I learned that the Contra forces were entering Nicaragua without weapons. One of my buddies who was involved in the logistics effort to supply the Contras tipped me off that the AK-47s the Contras were supposed to carry had not arrived. But, the Chief of the CIA’s Central American Task Force was under pressure from Congress and the White House to show progress. The Contras were refusing to cross the border without weapons and ammunition in hand. The CIA did not have any to give them. What to do?

The perfect bureaucratic solutionn–shutdown the Contra camps in Honduras and stop feeding them until they cross the Nicaraguan border. Bingo! All food supplies were curtailed and the Contras were told they would not receive rations and weapons until they crossed into Nicaragua. As a result, the hungry campesinos, grabbed their back packs and trudged across the border while the CIA Chiefs briefed the politicians downtown that the Contra invasion was underway. Victory!

What do you think happens to a 1000 unarmed guys wearing camo marching along a jungle trail in northern Nicaragua who are considered the enemies of Nicaragua? If you guessed, they are attacked, you are a winner. We, the analysts, were getting intel reports about the major casualties among the infiltrating Contra units and initially concluded that the Contras had no will to fight.

It was only after we learned they had no weapons and were coerced to enter Nicaragua unprepared to fight that we understood the perfidy of the CIA managers at Headquarters in charge of the war in Nicaragua. But there were still some CIA officers who were men of honor. One of the CIA paramilitary officers on the ground in southern Honduras was so outraged by the slaughter of the Contras that he ignored direct commands, grabbed a helicopter, flew into Nicaragua and started picking up wounded Contras and flew them to medical treatment in Honduras. He was fired subsequently for insubordination, but wore his dismissal as a badge of honor. For those of us who knew of his bravery and refusal to play the bureaucratic games, he was and remains a hero.

This is just one example of how politics interferes with sound military strategy and tactics. I am certain there are similar tales from Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. It appears that Ukraine was forced into launching ground attacks that could not compel the Russians to retreat. As a result, Ukraine incurred significant casualties and loss of key materiel and Russia remains in control of the territory around Kherson. It appears that the United States is doing to Ukraine what it did to the Contras. God help them.”
Respectfully, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

I read one of your longer posts earlier in the war and it bsasically said that all of this was disinformation and Russia will have mopped this up by the end of April or some similar timeline. Either you got new, better sources or you just can't handle the truth.
 
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Jerry

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Now hold on there, buster. On the OP of this thread you said you predicted ....at the beginning.....nobody is winning, nobody will win, nobody can win. Haven’t seen a link to that prediction yet.

You bettA a update yer error logs.

Spin, my error log is sparse. The last entry was from 1987...;)

But in response to your challenge, OK, is this close enough for you...from a Ukraine thread on March 16, pretty near the beginning of the fighting:

>>My argument has always been that once things have reached this disastrous point, you've lost. Everyone has lost in fact. Which is why things should not have been allowed to reach this point. It didn't have to happen. But the Regime doesn't want us to think along those lines. Just jump on the War Wagon, suspend our faculties of independent judgment, and recite the Party Line.<<

It's post #17 in this link:


Again: Everyone has lost. Which I think is consistent with the concept of: nobody is winning...nobody will win...

I invite you to inspect my many comments on the topic of Ukraine going back one solid year and find even one that contradicts my statements in this thread.
 

The Spin Meister

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Spin, my error log is sparse. The last entry was from 1987...;)

But in response to your challenge, OK, is this close enough for you...from a Ukraine thread on March 16, pretty near the beginning of the fighting:

>>My argument has always been that once things have reached this disastrous point, you've lost. Everyone has lost in fact. Which is why things should not have been allowed to reach this point. It didn't have to happen. But the Regime doesn't want us to think along those lines. Just jump on the War Wagon, suspend our faculties of independent judgment, and recite the Party Line.<<

It's post #17 in this link:


Again: Everyone has lost. Which I think is consistent with the concept of: nobody is winning...nobody will win...

I invite you to inspect my many comments on the topic of Ukraine going back one solid year and find even one that contradicts my statements in this thread.
They invaded on Feb 24. By the 16th of March it was evident that the Russians weren’t near as bad as advertised and bogged down. Sorry......error!
 
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WeR0206

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Respectfully, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

I read one of your longer posts earlier in the war and it bsasically said that all of this was disinformation and Russia will have mopped this up by the end of April or some similar timeline. Either you got new, better sources or you just can't handle the truth.
I don't think any article I have posted said this would be over by April. Some speculated maybe end of summer but it did say all that's left is mop up. They already have the south and eastern Ukraine and now they are slowly inching their way in. No one said it would be an overnight thing. If Ukraine's leaders weren't completely controlled by crazy WEF goons they would do a cease fire and start real negotiations.

Taylor Swift is never going to win a fight against Mike Tyson no matter what fancy gloves you give her. Ukraine is done. They have no air force and are running out of able bodied soldiers. They are losing massive amounts who are laying their weapons down.
 

indynittany

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I think Europe is getting its butt kicked in higher energy costs because of this war. People will freeze to death. This thing is on NATO.
And I don’t think it’s anything other than a sideshow. The main event is coming.
 

SheldonJoe2215

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I don't think any article I have posted said this would be over by April. Some speculated maybe end of summer but it did say all that's left is mop up. They already have the south and eastern Ukraine and now they are slowly inching their way in. No one said it would be an overnight thing. If Ukraine's leaders weren't completely controlled by crazy WEF goons they would do a cease fire and start real negotiations.

Taylor Swift is never going to win a fight against Mike Tyson no matter what fancy gloves you give her. Ukraine is done. They have no air force and are running out of able bodied soldiers. They are losing massive amounts who are laying their weapons down.
Well, that's a pretty long mop up if its been going on from April thru August and it ain't done yet.
 
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The Spin Meister

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Well, that's a pretty long mop up if its been going on from April thru August and it ain't done yet.
Especially considering Russia’s heavy losses. Kershon at risk. Large losses of support bases. Withdrawing assets from Crimea. Bringing old farts out of retirement. Forced to bring in troops and equipment from Chechnya, Syria, and other distant points.

Both sides have been seriously weakened. Either one could collapse in the next few weeks. And if goes on into winter it will be much worse.
 

Jerry

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They invaded on Feb 24. By the 16th of March it was evident that the Russians weren’t near as bad as advertised and bogged down. Sorry......error!

This is beginning to remind me of that great Star Trek episode, The Changeling, where in the final scene Captain Kirk outwits the supposedly perfect Nomad into realizing that its computer brain had done the unforgivable by committing an error requiring sterilization:

 

dailybuck777

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vindicating Western values like democracy and sovereignty.
This is a joke. Your president with his open borders policies doesn't value sovereignty. Biden's doj Beria campaigns, intelligence agency coup attempt, and the Jan. 6 star chamber committee make clear that Dems have no respect for democracy.
 
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The Spin Meister

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This is beginning to remind me of that great Star Trek episode, The Changeling, where in the final scene Captain Kirk outwits the supposedly perfect Nomad into realizing that its computer brain had done the unforgivable by committing an error requiring sterilization:

No need for you to sterilize yourself. Just admit you didn’t predict, before the war started, a long term draw between Ukraine and Putinstan. It’s ok....really.
 
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Darth_VadEER

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I never understood why people thought this would be a quick war. They are Europe's two largest armies. That notion came purely from our own media, which was most likely just swallowing whatever psyop talking point they were being fed.

A war between Russia/Ukraine ending in a matter of weeks just seems impossible.
 
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Ski

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I never understood why people thought this would be a quick war. They are Europe's two largest armies. That notion came purely from our own media, which was most likely just swallowing whatever psyop talking point they were being fed.

A war between Russia/Ukraine ending in a matter of weeks just seems impossible.

Both the West and more importantly Russia overestimated Russian military capabilities. Russia's military was given the respect due the Soviet Union, but they were not the Soviet military. The Russians saw Shock and Awe and the Thunder Run to Bagdad and they thought they could do it too in Ukraine. But the Russians ability to conduct combined arms operations was lacking along with their logistics, training, leadership, equipment, and overall organization. Throw in a top-heavy command structure and the lack of a significant NCO corps and you have the clusterf#$k that they created for themselves in Ukraine.

The Russians have going for them those things that they have relied on since WW-II -- a willingness to use brutality, a willingness to throw away copious amounts of troops in grinding attacks, and massive amounts of artillery which they are willing to use indiscriminately in civilian areas.
 

The Spin Meister

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I never understood why people thought this would be a quick war. They are Europe's two largest armies. That notion came purely from our own media, which was most likely just swallowing whatever psyop talking point they were being fed.

A war between Russia/Ukraine ending in a matter of weeks just seems impossible.
Well, Russia had a huge advantage in air power which is the key to modern warfare. Russia has advanced guided missiles, Ukraine not so much. Russia has....er.....had a powerful navy on the Black Sea, Ukraine nope. Russia had a huge numerical advantage in troops, tanks, artillery, and more.

But those reasons that Ski pointed out plus motivation and considerable support from western powers Ukraine has managed to stand firm so far. Corruption in the Russian empire is also a major factor.
 

Darth_VadEER

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Well, Russia had a huge advantage in air power which is the key to modern warfare. Russia has advanced guided missiles, Ukraine not so much. Russia has....er.....had a powerful navy on the Black Sea, Ukraine nope. Russia had a huge numerical advantage in troops, tanks, artillery, and more.

But those reasons that Ski pointed out plus motivation and considerable support from western powers Ukraine has managed to stand firm so far. Corruption in the Russian empire is also a major factor.

We've had CIA in Ukraine since Obama training their forces and we fully knew that we'd be providing them funding, weapons and intelligence once Russia invaded.

The "it will be over in weeks" is part of the information war directed to harm Putins reputation.
 
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Darth_VadEER

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Both the West and more importantly Russia overestimated Russian military capabilities. Russia's military was given the respect due the Soviet Union, but they were not the Soviet military. The Russians saw Shock and Awe and the Thunder Run to Bagdad and they thought they could do it too in Ukraine. But the Russians ability to conduct combined arms operations was lacking along with their logistics, training, leadership, equipment, and overall organization. Throw in a top-heavy command structure and the lack of a significant NCO corps and you have the clusterf#$k that they created for themselves in Ukraine.

The Russians have going for them those things that they have relied on since WW-II -- a willingness to use brutality, a willingness to throw away copious amounts of troops in grinding attacks, and massive amounts of artillery which they are willing to use indiscriminately in civilian areas.

Shock and awe turned into a decade long war.

I don't think we actually overestimated them. I do think we intentionally floated these ideas as a way of weakening Putin and turning Russian people against him. IMO, the US was waiting like the Cheshire Cat...pumping information that it would be over quickly but knowing it was going to be a long dragged out conflict. We knew that this was a proxy war, so the notion it was going to end quick is foolish.


Wars are rarely short, let a lone a matter of weeks....and especially not when one side is being funded by the most powerful military in the world, who already had assets operating in the country for over 10 years.

From some of the reading I've done on the subject, this is how Russia fights wars. Their military is built differently than our own, which seems to be more focused on precision.

Their winter begins in October, so I guess that's the next major phase after this counter offensive.
 
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