"The Trump Organization" ... How long before it files for Ch-11 bankruptcy...

Discussion in 'Test/Politics Board' started by BoulderFish, Aug 2, 2020 at 12:48 AM.

  1. BoulderFish

    BoulderFish Well-Known Member
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    ...protection?

    This company can't be in good shape right now. Hotels. Resorts. Condominiums.

    Revenue probably came to a relative screeching halt, but expenses probably only dropped a small amount.

    Valuations of properties are probably flat at best. More likely they are falling, and decent chance they'll be falling a lot more and faster here in the next couple of quarters.

    We don't know how leveraged is the company, but if they have creditors expecting monthly payments, this could be very bad news. Doesn't seem like the kind of company that would have been sitting on a ton of cash as of February.

    Is Donnie going to keep feeding his own cash into the company to keep it solvent, or file for bankruptcy protection? And if the latter, how long before it's filed? My guess is he files and it's within a month of him losing the election.

    What do you think?
     
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  2. PaoliLion

    PaoliLion Well-Known Member
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    he'll use campaign funds and he'll get a loan from Russian oligarchs.


    Here's a good example:
    https://www.thedailybeast.com/these...-to-the-trump-organization-look-shady-as-hell
     
    2 PaoliLion, Aug 2, 2020 at 12:53 AM
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2020 at 1:08 AM
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  3. BoulderFish

    BoulderFish Well-Known Member
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    Campaign funds aren't going to last long though. And who is lending anyone $$ right now, let alone to prop up a business who's income comes from hotels, resorts, condos, and selling properties for more than what you paid for them?
     
  4. Crayfish57

    Crayfish57 Well-Known Member
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    Who cares? Its his personal business. He isnt going to be using campaign funds and just how do you know he has financial problems? My god you people just have him 24/7 in your head every day
     
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  5. PaoliLion

    PaoliLion Well-Known Member
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    they have something like $200MM in the till, that's a lot of cash. The fed is giving away money to anyone who will take it. Russia will gladly foot the bill...Trump is a cheap date
     
  6. Crayfish57

    Crayfish57 Well-Known Member
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    Not near as cheap a one as you are I'm sure
     
  7. Grove Lion

    Grove Lion Well-Known Member
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    Squirrel... you're making an ass of yourself. You should probably just stfu.
     
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  8. Mixolydian

    Mixolydian Well-Known Member
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    I thought you understood how this stuff works? Creditors make these loans without a gun to their head. They base the lending decision on a variety of factors including their own assessment of the property value and viability in a variety of scenarios. They are in the business of taking risk, including bankruptcy risk, and factor that into the terms of the deal, including of course the interest rate. You understand that, right?

    I have no idea of the status of these properties, but as you point out, they must be taking an enormous hit. If Trump didn’t personally guarantee the loans (which based on his apparent net worth would have lowered the risk to the lender and reduced the interest rate), why would he continue to funnel his own money into the projects indefinitely? Would you?
     
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  9. franklinman

    franklinman Well-Known Member
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    Don't forget the Saudi's,Filthy has taken care of them the last 4 years.
     
  10. bdgan

    bdgan Well-Known Member
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    Dumb politically motivated post.
    • I think just about every hotel/resort type property is having serious trouble. It's not just "Trump" hotels.
    • Private golf courses should be propped up by members. Clubs are hurting because of no weddings and events but golf is still being played. Members will probably be paying an assessment.
    • Residential towers will only take a big hit if people flee the taxes and violence in democratic cities.
    • I think Trump makes a lot of money from licensing his name. That part shouldn't be impacted in the short run.
    There's no doubt that the Trump Organization is taking a big hit just like a lot of other industries. They've already had big layoffs. Banks aren't going to want to own his properties so I fully expect loan terms to be renegotiated. It's also possible that the trump Organization will sell a few less desirable properties in order to generate cash. It's not simply a matter of Trump funneling his non business cash.

    Of course this all assumes that the virus will settle down in another 6 months or so. If travel and leisure remains suspended indefinitely we're all going to have a much bigger problem.
     
    10 bdgan, Aug 2, 2020 at 9:04 AM
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2020 at 9:24 AM
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  11. franklinman

    franklinman Well-Known Member
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    I can't believe Filthy Don' s name, brand is worth anything after the last 4 years.
     
  12. NJPSU

    NJPSU Well-Known Member
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    I think he’s figured out a way to make tens of millions of dollars for his businesses “indirectly” by allowing others to trade around his tweets and his other policy decisions.

    His random tweets about the trade war would cause the market to jump or plummet depending what he wanted. It became a running joke in financial circles. It would happen several times a week.

    More recently you had all the insider trading going on with his “out of the blue” Kodak pump and dump announcement.

    There is zero chance his businesses are not indirectly benefiting from his market pump and dumps.

    I suspect it works something like this. His people tip off a third party that something like the Kodak announcement is coming. That third party makes a windfall on the inside information and the next thing you know that same party is putting a third of those profits back into a Trump owned property through various means like a Sweetheart loan or property purchase, etc.

    Rinse and repeat.

    Of course this is just a hunch, but if you follow the market you can clearly see Trump uses twitter to change market direction.
     
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  13. The Spin Meister

    The Spin Meister Well-Known Member
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    Much of his empire is commercial property combined with high end residential like Trump tower. These are office towers for businesses and high end condos with a view on upper floors. Both of those markets should be fine. And a large percentage of NYC properties are bought by foreign owners and are rarely occupied.

    No doubt his businesses have been impacted but they can probably weather the storm better than most.
     
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  14. Mixolydian

    Mixolydian Well-Known Member
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    Did you get that from the “Raven”??? LMAO. FFS man get ahold of yourself.
     
  15. Crayfish57

    Crayfish57 Well-Known Member
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    He should stick to reposting things from twitter
     
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  16. NJPSU

    NJPSU Well-Known Member
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    You gotta admit, if that story broke tomorrow there’s not a single person who would be surprised.

    Trump is obsessed with the market, he’s obsessed with twitter, there’s no way he’s not somehow profiting off his ability to move markets.

    It’s like putting a plate full of spaghetti in front of Sarah Huckabee Sanders and expecting her not to eat it.
     
  17. NJPSU

    NJPSU Well-Known Member
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    Sit this one out. Too complicated for you to follow. ;)
     
  18. Mixolydian

    Mixolydian Well-Known Member
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    “if that story broke tomorrow there’s not a single person who would be surprised if it ended up being false”

    FIFY. Boy who cried wolf syndrome....

    Trump makes a ton of unforced errors and says a bunch of dumb stuff. Stick to that. The other stuff hasn’t really worked out for you...
     
  19. NJPSU

    NJPSU Well-Known Member
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    I said it was just a hunch but you gotta admit it sounds like something he’s probably involved in.

    I just finished watching that Netflix doc on the NYC mob during the 70’s and 80’s. They mentioned that Trump and anyone else involved in NYC real estate had to deal directly with the mob to get anything done. He’s been doing back room shady deals his whole career. It’s who he is.
     
  20. CDW3333

    CDW3333 Well-Known Member
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    Trump's presidential grift (kickbacks, bribes, insider trading, emoluments) is certainly in the hundreds of millions if not in excess of a $billion.

    The amounts stolen from CARES Act funding alone will be the billions.

    "The CARES Act allocated $100 billion to the HHS-disbursed Provider Relief Fund, which CMS Administrator Seema Verma publicly announced would come with “no strings attached” and said that health care providers “can essentially spend that in any way that they see fit.”
     
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  21. NJPSU

    NJPSU Well-Known Member
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    Exactly, Trump is like a kid in the candy store with the hundred of different ways he can use the Presidency to line his pockets. He’s clearly doing it.

    I’ll admit it’s the one thing he’s actually good at.

    He also now knows he can ignore documents requests and subpoenas.
     
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  22. Mixolydian

    Mixolydian Well-Known Member
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    If only Adam Schiff, Nancy Pelosi, the Penguin and Chuck Schumer, et al were motivated enough, they could NAIL him on this graft and corruption bit. You need to start writing letters and tell them to get off their asses and start an investigation!!! FFS...
     
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  23. macdad25

    macdad25 Well-Known Member
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    Trump Org got millions in bail out money I’m betting.
     
  24. BoulderFish

    BoulderFish Well-Known Member
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    Not indefinitely. But if he thinks it's just a short term problem, he might prop it up with his own cash (either through investment, or more likely a loan -- putting that money first in bankruptcy payout). And my question was, if he does that -- thinking it's going to be a short term problem -- how long do you think he would be willing to do that until he abandons the idea that it's a short-term problem and just files bankruptcy?

    And yeah, of course creditors factor risk, etc. Not sure what that has to do with anything. They're still going to want their money.
     
  25. BoulderFish

    BoulderFish Well-Known Member
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    If that's true, I doubt that's "Trump Organization" money. So, while his own, and his buddies' pockets may be being lined in some way, that's not helping the Trump Organization.

    The one thing that IS helping the Trump organization is that any time he has any say or influence, administration-related travel stays at Trump properties and pays the highest amount they can get away with.

    But that's going to go away the day he leaves office.
     
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  26. Mixolydian

    Mixolydian Well-Known Member
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    If he’s a rational business man, he would prop it up until the point when he feels he no longer can get any of his equity in the project or business back. That’s what you would do, right?

    You are suggesting that he will strongly factor the election date into this decision? I am not saying he definitely wouldn’t do that if if meant a slight delay and a little more cash, but I seriously doubt that will be evident in the next 3 months.
     
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  27. JeffClear

    JeffClear Well-Known Member
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    Trump’s most valuable property the Doral was struggling before the pandemic, it’s probably hemorrhaging cash now unless it’s getting bailout money. Since the white house is refusing to release who is getting bailout money, it’s probably a safe bet that he is.
     
  28. m.knox

    m.knox Well-Known Member
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    Good point. Though people are golfing.
     
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  29. pawrestlersintn

    pawrestlersintn Well-Known Member
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    You just jumped off the conspiracy theory high dive.
     
  30. rumble_lion

    rumble_lion Well-Known Member
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    Did Russian oligarchs run out of money that needs to be laundered?
     
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  31. JR4PSU

    JR4PSU Well-Known Member
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    Are you Democrats seriously that jealous of Trump having more than you? Amazing how petty you guys are getting.

    He has a hotel/entertainment business. His organization is in no different of a situation than the vast majority of hotel/entertainment businesses. Get over it already.

    Sheesh.
     
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  32. BoulderFish

    BoulderFish Well-Known Member
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    LOL! YES, EXACTLY! And I'm asking everyone's thoughts on if they think he'll just give up rather quickly and file the bankruptcy, or if they think he's the type to hang on unreasonably long (i.e. he might feel a little more emotionally invested in this than say, the Taj Mahal in AC).

    Well, the Trump Organization has a nice little stream of cash while he's POTUS -- And that will go away after he leaves office. Further, the Trump Organization filing for bankruptcy wouldn't exactly be a good look since many in his base buy into this myth that he's a "great businessman" -- and that's a significant part of why they think they like/want him as POTUS.

    I'm just asking others what they think. I have no idea, myself (other than I can't imagine this "pandemic" is good for the Trump Organization's cash flow). I just posted it as a topic of conversation.
     
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  33. Mixolydian

    Mixolydian Well-Known Member
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    I’m really not sure whether he’s a “great businessman” or not. I do know that nobody should have their business acumen judged based on how their business held up during a ridiculously unlikely scenario such as this pandemic. I also know that the US economy was doing well by almost every measure through February, and most people were happy with it. That is a fact, not a “myth”.
     
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