The end game for the B1G (and the SEC)?

Katatonic

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Oct 23, 2004
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And for that matter, FS1/Fox and ESPN/Disney.

Posted this last week on the NU board, but repost a more concise version here.

If ND decides that it's in their best interest to join a conference (the scuttlebutt is that they are leaning towards staying independent for as long as they can make it work), it'll be the B1G and the conference may very well stop there.

No other school would bring in the additional revenue to keep the slice of the pie for each school as big as it would be with just the addition of the Domers - not Clemson, not FSU (not that the B1G presidents and chancellors would be inclined to accept those 2 schools).

The wildcard here would be Oregon with the financial backing of Uncle Phil.

Word is that Knight is determined to get Oregon into the B1G, and failing that, the SEC (and failing that, he'll probably turn to the ACC).

Conference expansion is all about the $$ and Nike could offer the B1G a 9 or even 10 figure sponsorship deal.

In addition, PSU, dOSU, USC, UM, MSU and Iowa are all Nike schools.

Nike can always also sweeten the pot to those schools (while USC is annoyed with the Ducks for coming into their backyard and snaring recruits, they seem to have no problem taking Nike $$).

So if Uncle Phil is willing to pony up, the B1G could stop at 18 for maximum payouts to each member school.

But 17/18 schools is kinda an unwieldy number with the LA schools (and possibly Oregon) being relegated to a far away outpost.

To offset this, going to a 24 school conference made up of 4 divisions (which would keep intact most of the important regional rivalries and help mitigate a good part of the travel issues for the non-revenue sports) may be the answer.

In this scenario, each school would play the 5 teams within its own division, 6 teams from another division (on a rotating basis) and a protected rivalry (which need at least a rotation of protected rivals) game - making up the 12 game season schedule.

There would be no OOC games.

Here is a possible breakdown of schools/divisions.


Atlantic
Maryland
Penn State
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Rutgers?
Duke or UVA?


Midwest
Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana
Purdue
Rutgers?


Heartland
Northwestern
Illinois
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Nebraska


Pacific
USC
UCLA
Oregon
Washington
Stanford?
Cal or Colorado?


Geographically, makes the most sense to stick the ND in the Midwest division, but one of the prime reasons the Domers have resisted joining the B1G is because they do not want to be seen as a midwestern school, plus the majority of their fan base resides along the NE/Atlantic corridor.

Can then just stick Penn State in the Midwest division, but that would make the division too top heavy and likewise, the bulk of the fan base lives in the NE/Atlantic corridor (plus, this would finally quiet the fans who wished PSU had joined the ACC instead of the B1G, or maybe not).

If the B1G invites only one of UVA/Duke, then the make up of the Atlantic is fairly cut and dry, but if they decide to add both, it becomes a bit oroblematic.

Think at the end of the day, the result would be to move Rutgers to the Midwest despite it being a geography anomaly, since this would make the schools in the Midwest happy by giving them more exposure in the NYC market (ND would not like that the subway Domers wouldn't get an annual, easy trip to see the fighting Irish play, but ND can't get everything they want, plus State College and College Park are manageable trips and ND gets to continue playing ACC schools that are academic peers).

For the Pacific, the B1G probably takes 1 Bay area school (every school in the B1G has from 1% to 5% of it alums living in area w/ the exception of Northwestern which is greater than 5%).

Plus, the B1G would want a vehicle (by the way of having home games) to schmooze the tech companies execs (like Apple) who will be players when it comes to streaming rights.

The last slot out west will likely be between Cal (does UCLA have enough juice to bring Cal into the fold) or would the B1G want a presence in a different market, Colorado?

An alternative would to take both Cal and Colorado, put the Buffs in the Heartland with their old rivals, the Huskers and move Illinois to the Midwest, and Rutgers to the Atlantic.

But this would mean leaving either UVA or Duke on the outside looking in.

Whichever way it ends up, this would give the B1G a national footprint across the northern part of the country, which would include many of the largest population centers while keeping the most desirable (from a national viewership standpoint) regional rivalries intact.

In addition, by adding more teams in the Pacific or Mountain timezone, have more options/variety for having a late start Friday night game (can't have USC and UCLA host every late game on Fridays).

The sanctity of reserving Friday evenings for high school football has been done away with for some time now.

The B1G (and I'm sure, the SEC as well) can make Friday night like Monday or Thursday night football as the NFL has done.

But it would be a 2 game slate with the early game starting at 6:30 or 7 pm Eastern time and the late game at 9:30 pm.
 
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Katatonic

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Now adding 8 more schools, esp. the likes of Stanford, Cal, Duke, etc.) may seem counterintuitive, as none of those schools aside from ND would bring in the revenue needed to grow the pie sufficiently to keep the size of the slices from shrinking, but that's on an individual basis.

In the aggregate, they could sufficiently grow the pie by basically destroying any real demand for the remnants of the ACC, Pac 12 or the B12 for that matter (the SEC also playing a role in this).

For instance, ESPN/Disney would no longer need to pay $35 million+ for each ACC school as it's currently constructed, as the ACC would basically be gutted (w/ the SEC taking Clemson, FSU, Miami, VT and maybe NC State).

That $$ would go into the larger, 24 school SEC (to match the B1G), which would also be broken down into 4 divisions made up of 6 schools.

Both conferences would then each have a 6 team playoff made up of the 4 divisional winners and 2 wildcards, with the top 2 seeds getting a bye.

The champions of the B1G and SEC would then meet in what would be the college equivalent of the Super Bowl.

There is no need for bowl games - why share that revenue with the few men who run those bowls and enrich themselves (many schools end up in the deficit after paying for travel expenses and guaranteeing their ticket allotment)?

To take a page out of European football, you can add a secondary tournament where teams with winning records who miss out on the playoffs can play each other (like the Europa League Championship).

In this case, would pool B1G and SEC teams together to switch things up and make things more interesting.

So, not only would you have a 12 team playoff (6 each for the B1G and SEC) generating huge interest/revenue, but a 2nd tier tournament to generate additional revenue and keep the fan bases of those schools and the networks/streaming services happy by providing more content.

What this means for everyone else is that they become the USFL or even Arena football.

Or to use another European football analogy, the Premier League at the top in English football, with Championship League underneath and other leagues underneath that, w/ the gap in revenue between the Premier League and rest being monumental.

But this would take coordination not only between the B1G and SEC, but, let's face it, the drivers of these changes - FS1/Fox and ESPN/Disney (kinda ironic that the B1G is tied to Fox and the SEC to Disney and not the other way around).
 
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LMTLION

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Mar 20, 2008
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And for that matter, FS1/Fox and ESPN/Disney.

Posted this last week on the NU board, but repost a more concise version here.

If ND decides that it's in their best interest to join a conference (the scuttlebutt is that they are leaning towards staying independent for as long as they can make it work), it'll be the B1G and the conference may very well stop there.

No other school would bring in the additional revenue to keep the slice of the pie for each school as big as it would be with just the addition of the Domers - not Clemson, not FSU (not that the B1G presidents and chancellors would be inclined to accept those 2 schools).

The wildcard here would be Oregon with the financial backing of Uncle Phil.

Word is that Knight is determined to get Oregon into the B1G, and failing that, the SEC (and failing that, he'll probably turn to the ACC).

Conference expansion is all about the $$ and Nike could offer the B1G a 9 or even 10 figure sponsorship deal.

In addition, PSU, dOSU, USC, UM, MSU and Iowa are all Nike schools.

Nike can always also sweeten the pot to those schools (while USC is annoyed with the Ducks for coming into their backyard and snaring recruits, they seem to have no problem taking Nike $$).

So if Uncle Phil is willing to pony up, the B1G could stop at 18 for maximum payouts to each member school.

But 17/18 schools is kinda an unwieldy number with the LA schools (and possibly Oregon) being relegated to a far away outpost.

To offset this, going to a 24 school conference made up of 4 divisions (which would keep intact most of the important regional rivalries and help mitigate a good part of the travel issues for the non-revenue sports) may be the answer.

In this scenario, each school would play the 5 teams within its own division, 6 teams from another division (on a rotating basis) and a protected rivalry (which need at least a rotation of protected rivals) game - making up the 12 game season schedule.

There would be no OOC games.

Here is a possible breakdown of schools/divisions.


Atlantic
Maryland
Penn State
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Rutgers?
Duke or UVA?


Midwest
Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana
Purdue
Rutgers?


Heartland
Northwestern
Illinois
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Nebraska


Pacific
USC
UCLA
Oregon
Washington
Stanford?
Cal or Colorado?


Geographically, makes the most sense to stick the ND in the Midwest division, but one of the prime reasons the Domers have resisted joining the B1G is because they do not want to be seen as a midwestern school, plus the majority of their fan base resides along the NE/Atlantic corridor.

Can then just stick Penn State in the Midwest division, but that would make the division too top heavy and likewise, the bulk of the fan base lives in the NE/Atlantic corridor (plus, this would finally quiet the fans who wished PSU had joined the ACC instead of the B1G, or maybe not).

If the B1G invites only one of UVA/Duke, then the make up of the Atlantic is fairly cut and dry, but if they decide to add both, it becomes a bit oroblematic.

Think at the end of the day, the result would be to move Rutgers to the Midwest despite it being a geography anomaly, since this would make the schools in the Midwest happy by giving them more exposure in the NYC market (ND would not like that the subway Domers wouldn't get an annual, easy trip to see the fighting Irish play, but ND can't get everything they want, plus State College and College Park are manageable trips and ND gets to continue playing ACC schools that are academic peers).

For the Pacific, the B1G probably takes 1 Bay area school (every school in the B1G has from 1% to 5% of it alums living in area w/ the exception of Northwestern which is greater than 5%).

Plus, the B1G would want a vehicle (by the way of having home games) to schmooze the tech companies execs (like Apple) who will be players when it comes to streaming rights.

The last slot out west will likely be between Cal (does UCLA have enough juice to bring Cal into the fold) or would the B1G want a presence in a different market, Colorado?

An alternative would to take both Cal and Colorado, put the Buffs in the Heartland with their old rivals, the Huskers and move Illinois to the Midwest, and Rutgers to the Atlantic.

But this would mean leaving either UVA or Duke on the outside looking in.
Love your analysis. But as we go super conference why stop at 24? Wouldn’t 28 with 4 pods of 7 make sense with the additions of VT, GT, OK St and one of the Texas schools? We need to ensure we are firmly planted in areas of population growth.
 

Katatonic

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Love your analysis. But as we go super conference why stop at 24? Wouldn’t 28 with 4 pods of 7 make sense with the additions of VT, GT, OK St and one of the Texas schools? We need to ensure we are firmly planted in areas of population growth.

(I've edited it to add more stuff.)

That would mean increasing the # of regular season games to 13, which means that the national champs could end up playing 17 games.

Think having a geographic divide will make things that much more heated/garnering interest with VA and maybe NC being the border states that are shared by both conferences (have UVA in the B1G, so no need for VT; with UMD, UVA and to a certain extent PSU, have the Balt/DC metro area sewn up), plus need to leave some viable options for the SEC to get to 24.

Neither TAMU nor UT is going to leave the SEC and none of the other schools in TX fit the B1G profile, nor does OK St.

GT fits the profile, but it is at best, the 4th team of interest in the Atlanta metro area and we're talking a distant 4th.

The B1G doesn't like being the 2nd banana and certainly won't stand for being the 4th.

Viewers in the big metro areas watch the best games.

A Penn State/Wisconsin clash would get more viewers in Atlanta than GT/Iowa.

The most viable option from the deep south would be UMiami (albeit, despite probably beimg the 3rd banana in the state of FL) as they are a traditional power and best fit the profile and culture of the B1G, but they would be an isolated outpost all by themselves.

One seemingly UMiami insider thinks the school is eventually headed for the SEC, much to his chagrin - because academically and culturally, he sees the B1G as being the much better fit.

I don't think not having a footprint in the deep south means that the B1G won't pull recruits out of the deep south.

The B1G powers do, and even schools like Northwestern (which has built a nice pipeline from TX and GA).

In the 24 school for each conference scenario, there will be more good football players than the SEC can take.

Plus, with youtube, tiktok, instagram, etc. and NIL - creating your own brand has become very important for recruits (there are high school BB stars with millions of followers).

What better way to help build your brand than to play in the major media markets of NYC, DC, Chicago, LA and the Bay area?

That's something the SEC cannot offer.

Going back to leaving viable options for the SEC, it's actually tougher for the SEC to get to 24 schools.

Start with Clemson, FSU and UMiami - which makes 19.

VT and NC St makes 21.

Figure the SEC will take at least one AZ school, if not both (or they can add Colorado for the Denver market) - that makes 23.

In this scenario, can see the SEC taking KU (probably the only scenario which would save KU from turning into UConn).

While collegiate BB plays a minor role in the equation when it comes to conference makeup, the SEC will absolutely be loaded with football schools, and they are a bit short of BB blue bloods (esp. compsred to the B1G which will be adding UCLA, UNC and Duke to the fold).

ESPN is going to want to be able to provide more big matchups during the basketball season.

With UK, KU and UAz - that's a nice foundation to build upon (but yeah, for the SEC, football rules).
 
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The Spin Meister

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(I've edited it to add more stuff.)



Plus, with youtube, tiktok, instagram, etc. and NIL - creating your own brand has become very important for recruits (there are high school BB stars with millions of followers).

What better way to help build your brand than to play in the major media markets of NYC, DC, Chicago, LA and the Bay area?

That's something the SEC cannot offer.
Lots of interesting stuff in your posts.

The fact that the Big would have most of the major metro area is huge for both recruiting and broadcasting rights. And with NIL becoming so important playing in a huge metro area will give much more NIL opportunities. Perhaps it will help the Big out recruit the SEC.
 
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Wallace Breen

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I'm thinking if you want a "SUPER" conference, there are have to be teams that need to leave. Or else it really won't be super!
There are other motives at play like seriously weaking the SEC to the point where they either formally turn into a semi-pro league or turn into the sun belt conference. If they can only play themselves and southern regional conferences, they are toast.
 

IndyLion1

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Given the fact that Kevin Warren and Gene Smith (Ohio St AD) have talked about expansion is driven by TV contracts (# of TV sets in the market), look for the Big10 to add Houston. Houston is the 4th biggest market in the US.
 

doctornick

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Given the fact that Kevin Warren and Gene Smith (Ohio St AD) have talked about expansion is driven by TV contracts (# of TV sets in the market), look for the Big10 to add Houston. Houston is the 4th biggest market in the US.

I'm assuming you are joking, but along that line of silly ideas... they should add Rice! Great academics and brings in Houston and the state of Texas. They are even AAU. That would be great, right?
 

LandoComando

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I'm assuming you are joking, but along that line of silly ideas... they should add Rice! Great academics and brings in Houston and the state of Texas. They are even AAU. That would be great, right?
Are you still trying to make this about academics even when you're joking?
 

Online Persona

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I'm thinking if you want a "SUPER" conference, there are have to be teams that need to leave. Or else it really won't be super!
I agree. Many people are arguing against some of the adds that they don't increase the per team payout. But there are current B1G and SEC teams that may get pushed out at some point for not adding their share either. If you drop a Vanderbilt and add a Miami, it's a net gain. Likewise you could drop a Rutgres and add a UNC as net gain. Let's face it, few people are tuning in for Rutgres.
 

sandiegohawk

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Given the fact that Kevin Warren and Gene Smith (Ohio St AD) have talked about expansion is driven by TV contracts (# of TV sets in the market), look for the Big10 to add Houston. Houston is the 4th biggest market in the US.
If the Houston Oilers in the days or Earl Campbell, Dan Pastorini, Billy White Shoes & Bum Phillips were also a high academic institution I'd be all in, but short of that, no way any schools in Houston are getting into the Big Ten.
 

doctornick

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I agree. Many people are arguing against some of the adds that they don't increase the per team payout. But there are current B1G and SEC teams that may get pushed out at some point for not adding their share either. If you drop a Vanderbilt and add a Miami, it's a net gain. Likewise you could drop a Rutgres and add a UNC as net gain. Let's face it, few people are tuning in for Rutgres.
The reason why teams aren’t going to be voted out is because schools would be afraid of being the next one kicked out. No one wants to start that trend so everyone will just continue the status quo of membership unless someone willingly leaves.
 
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The Spin Meister

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The reason why teams aren’t going to be voted out is because schools would be afraid of being the next one kicked out. No one wants to start that trend so everyone will just continue the status quo of membership unless someone leaves.
I would a couple to opt out because of the expense of keeping so many teams and the extra travel. A lot will depend on how scheduling works out.... ot just football and basketball but more for all the other sports.
 

doctornick

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I would a couple to opt out because of the expense of keeping so many teams and the extra travel. A lot will depend on how scheduling works out.... ot just football and basketball but more for all the other sports.

It's possible a school could voluntarily leave - perhaps if they are unhappy with how things are going with NIL/playing players or just because they feel big time college athletics are harming the academic brand - but that's far different than a school being kicked out against their will.
 

The Spin Meister

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It's possible a school could voluntarily leave - perhaps if they are unhappy with how things are going with NIL/playing players or just because they feel big time college athletics are harming the academic brand - but that's far different than a school being kicked out against their will.
That’s why I said a couple will likely opt out.
 

doctornick

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Are you still trying to make this about academics even when you're joking?

Your post are really hard to tell if you are being sarcastic or not given absurd they tend to be, but... when it comes to seriously considering who the Big Ten would add to the conference, absolutely, yes academics will play a role. I don't think in the sense of a better rated school would be chosen over a lesser quality academic one for that reason alone, but the Big Ten will have an academic "floor" of who they'd be willing to accept. I'm not one who thinks that the conference is absolutely wedded to the schools being in the AAU, but that is probably a good bench mark as to who is "good enough" to be acceptable to the B10 (plus Notre Dame).

Outside of ND, I'm not sure there's any schools that the Big Ten would want that aren't AAU. I don't think they would accept Clemson despite their obvious football value. Miami (FL), FSU or VA Tech would probably be the only non-AAU schools that I could even see being considered and even then I think they probably won't be.

The good news for the Big Ten is that pretty much any school that's nominally a "brand" and not firmly in SEC territory (SC & FL) are all at least decent academically so however many they end up adding - which could very well be zero for a good while - is not going to draw the ire of the university presidents.
 
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LandoComando

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Your post are really hard to tell if you are being sarcastic or not given absurd they tend to be, but... when it comes to seriously considering who the Big Ten would add to the conference, absolutely, yes academics will play a role.
Stopped reading at that point
 

84Lion

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Kat, great analysis/thoughts. Let me throw this out: why not poach Georgia and Florida from the SEC? Florida is an AAU school, Georgia is not, but they are "close." Why would they leave? Money and academic prestige. If you want to put the SEC on notice that they are decidedly "second-tier," take two of their crown jewels. Why not?
Aside from that, I agree, 24 teams is a good number. It divides nicely into 4 divisions (as you surmise above, and BTW I like your division titles!) and sets up an 11 conference game schedule (5 in your division and 2 each from the other 3 divisions). My picks for the "additional eight:" Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Arizona (or Utah), Georgia, Florida, Notre Dame, and UNC if they can get past the ACC GOR. Thus your Atlantic division would be PSU, Rutgers, MD, UGA, Florida, and UNC. Midwest would be OSU, UM, MSU, Notre Dame, Purdue, and I'd say Northwestern. Fun to speculate. I will say that I'll be disappointed if the B1G just adds the 2 Cali schools. The B1G needs to go bigger!
 

Op2

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If for the last 20 years the trend has been that the SEC has been becoming more like the Big Ten and more powerful as a result then I'd say academics has something to do with this. Instead, the opposite has been happening. ND is ND so they're good no matter what. Maybe Stanford sticks with the big boys...maybe, since they're actually good at football. But I don't see how BC or Duke has a chance. Coach K just retired and Duke football is bad and football is the big money maker. There's a realistic chance that in five years Duke will be Indiana with a little worse football and a little better basketball. And if Indiana wasn't already in the Big Ten, nobody would be suggesting them.

UNC and Duke are buds so I think UNC is in a bind of either going with the big boys and leaving Duke behind or sticking with Duke and not getting to be with the big boys.

This all is pretty messy. Other than the fact that the alternative is being left out of the big time, is there any appeal to being in a 20 school or so Big Ten? It's like saying in 10 years the only two foods left to eat will be frozen dinners and dog food and we'll be eating frozen dinners. Well I guess that's good since the alternative is dog food.
 

LandoComando

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Waiting for someone to suggest adding ND & pick 3 (since everyone is mad about every option--UNC, Miami, Oregon, Stanford, Washington, etc) so we have two divisions. The Original 10 then the new 10--I personally wouldn't hate a division of Penn State, USC, Nebraska, Notre Dame, etc.
 

doctornick

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Kat, great analysis/thoughts. Let me throw this out: why not poach Georgia and Florida from the SEC? Florida is an AAU school, Georgia is not, but they are "close." Why would they leave? Money and academic prestige. If you want to put the SEC on notice that they are decidedly "second-tier," take two of their crown jewels. Why not?

Would absolutely love to see Georgia and Florida for the Big 10, but they aren't leaving the SEC. They are actually a similar pair to Texas/Oklahoma and those schools went to the SEC (although it's questionable whether they even ever considered the Big Ten; but Warren is an fool if he didn't at least try at some point). It's unfortunate that Florida is already in the SEC because they are the one school from that state that are most like a B10 school and the Big Ten would absolutely love them.
 

Op2

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People are talking about poaching schools from the SEC and SEC fans are probably talking about poaching schools from the Big Ten. This begs the question, at what point do the SEC and Big Ten merge and be in it together so that which conference their schools are in no longer matters?
 

CrazyHeel

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The rumor mill here in North Carolina is that UNC wants no part of the SEC. And that a Carolina, dook package is laughable. Makes sense, who in their right mind would pay dook 100 mil a year for men's basketball. Also, a few "unnamed" schools have gotten their lawyers together with a few copies of the gor. The writing on the wall suggests UNC, and UVA, will make the move, (no timeframe). Clemson and Fla. ST. appear SEC bound. The only thing that could stop a move for UNC is the state legislature. They appoint the board of directors for the North Carolina University system and could tie UNC and NC st. at the hip.
 

LMTLION

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The rumor mill here in North Carolina is that UNC wants no part of the SEC. And that a Carolina, dook package is laughable. Makes sense, who in their right mind would pay dook 100 mil a year for men's basketball. Also, a few "unnamed" schools have gotten their lawyers together with a few copies of the gor. The writing on the wall suggests UNC, and UVA, will make the move, (no timeframe). Clemson and Fla. ST. appear SEC bound. The only thing that could stop a move for UNC is the state legislature. They appoint the board of directors for the North Carolina University system and could tie UNC and NC st. at the hip.
What is your own personal preference for UNC - ACC, B10, or SEC? NC is filled with northern transplants, so there is that connection. Personally I would love to see the additions of UNC, UVA, Duke and VT. I am more interested in an expanded east coast presence than anything. I would love to be in such a super conference pod. If only one VA or NC school is allowed then I would add BC.
 

doctornick

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The rumor mill here in North Carolina is that UNC wants no part of the SEC. And that a Carolina, dook package is laughable. Makes sense, who in their right mind would pay dook 100 mil a year for men's basketball. Also, a few "unnamed" schools have gotten their lawyers together with a few copies of the gor. The writing on the wall suggests UNC, and UVA, will make the move, (no timeframe). Clemson and Fla. ST. appear SEC bound. The only thing that could stop a move for UNC is the state legislature. They appoint the board of directors for the North Carolina University system and could tie UNC and NC st. at the hip.

Tying UNC and NC State together helps neither and we've seen that schools are better off when they are allowed to make decisions free from these sorts of entanglements.

I think UNC is easily the most fascination player in all this in that they are the one school that you could really see being fought over by the SEC and Big Ten. I do wonder what the school would prefer. My biased view is that I think UNC would opt for the better academics, nominally easier football, better hoops, and better all around sports programs of the Big Ten. But there's definitely a lot of southern pride there and I'm sure there would be a strong contingent that would fight for the SEC.
 
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Op2

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I think UNC would like to stay as one of the flagship schools of the ACC if possible, but if forced to choose between the Big Ten and the SEC, they'd choose the Big Ten. The culture of UNC is much more in tune with the Big Ten than the SEC.
 

CrazyHeel

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What is your own personal preference for UNC - ACC, B10, or SEC? NC is filled with northern transplants, so there is that connection. Personally I would love to see the additions of UNC, UVA, Duke and VT. I am more interested in an expanded east coast presence than anything. I would love to be in such a super conference pod. If only one VA or NC school is allowed then I would add BC.
BT
 

CrazyHeel

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Tying UNC and NC State together helps neither and we've seen that schools are better off when they are allowed to make decisions free from these sorts of entanglements.

I think UNC is easily the most fascination player in all this in that they are the one school that you could really see being fought over by the SEC and Big Ten. I do wonder what the school would prefer. My biased view is that I think UNC would opt for the better academics, nominally easier football, better hoops, and better all around sports programs of the Big Ten. But there's definitely a lot of southern pride there and I'm sure there would be a strong contingent that would fight for the SEC.
UNC normally gets want they want. Mack Brown would surely politic for the SEC. I just don't see Carolina willing to put in what it really takes to be a top 10 program in football.
 

CrazyHeel

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I think UNC would like to stay as one of the flagship schools of the ACC if possible, but if forced to choose between the Big Ten and the SEC, they'd choose the Big Ten. The culture of UNC is much more in tune with the Big Ten than the SEC.
They definitely don't want to have to give up the clout, it's definitely an arrogant bunch.
 

Ian

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The more I think about it the more the B1G should just stick to the “AAU plan” plus ND. I will be shocked if the SEC gets ND. It’s not a fit academically or athletically. Absorbing the rest of the P5 AAU schools in the PAC 12, ACC, Big 12, and ND would happen over the next 5-10 yrs. and if so, you could have a 30 team conference setup up with three 10 team divisions.
 

LongJakk

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Sep 19, 2001
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It's all about money. The only football schools "in play" that don't shrink the football pie slices are ND & Oregon. The only other tandem would be poaching Texas & OK and i think they could've joined B10 but chose the SEC.

I dont think the B10 gives a shit about any other conference, the grand scheme of super conferences or playoff ramifications.
 

ryoder1

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Feb 17, 2007
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And for that matter, FS1/Fox and ESPN/Disney.

Posted this last week on the NU board, but repost a more concise version here.

If ND decides that it's in their best interest to join a conference (the scuttlebutt is that they are leaning towards staying independent for as long as they can make it work), it'll be the B1G and the conference may very well stop there.

No other school would bring in the additional revenue to keep the slice of the pie for each school as big as it would be with just the addition of the Domers - not Clemson, not FSU (not that the B1G presidents and chancellors would be inclined to accept those 2 schools).

The wildcard here would be Oregon with the financial backing of Uncle Phil.

Word is that Knight is determined to get Oregon into the B1G, and failing that, the SEC (and failing that, he'll probably turn to the ACC).

Conference expansion is all about the $$ and Nike could offer the B1G a 9 or even 10 figure sponsorship deal.

In addition, PSU, dOSU, USC, UM, MSU and Iowa are all Nike schools.

Nike can always also sweeten the pot to those schools (while USC is annoyed with the Ducks for coming into their backyard and snaring recruits, they seem to have no problem taking Nike $$).

So if Uncle Phil is willing to pony up, the B1G could stop at 18 for maximum payouts to each member school.

But 17/18 schools is kinda an unwieldy number with the LA schools (and possibly Oregon) being relegated to a far away outpost.

To offset this, going to a 24 school conference made up of 4 divisions (which would keep intact most of the important regional rivalries and help mitigate a good part of the travel issues for the non-revenue sports) may be the answer.

In this scenario, each school would play the 5 teams within its own division, 6 teams from another division (on a rotating basis) and a protected rivalry (which need at least a rotation of protected rivals) game - making up the 12 game season schedule.

There would be no OOC games.

Here is a possible breakdown of schools/divisions.


Atlantic
Maryland
Penn State
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Rutgers?
Duke or UVA?


Midwest
Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana
Purdue
Rutgers?


Heartland
Northwestern
Illinois
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Nebraska


Pacific
USC
UCLA
Oregon
Washington
Stanford?
Cal or Colorado?


Geographically, makes the most sense to stick the ND in the Midwest division, but one of the prime reasons the Domers have resisted joining the B1G is because they do not want to be seen as a midwestern school, plus the majority of their fan base resides along the NE/Atlantic corridor.

Can then just stick Penn State in the Midwest division, but that would make the division too top heavy and likewise, the bulk of the fan base lives in the NE/Atlantic corridor (plus, this would finally quiet the fans who wished PSU had joined the ACC instead of the B1G, or maybe not).

If the B1G invites only one of UVA/Duke, then the make up of the Atlantic is fairly cut and dry, but if they decide to add both, it becomes a bit oroblematic.

Think at the end of the day, the result would be to move Rutgers to the Midwest despite it being a geography anomaly, since this would make the schools in the Midwest happy by giving them more exposure in the NYC market (ND would not like that the subway Domers wouldn't get an annual, easy trip to see the fighting Irish play, but ND can't get everything they want, plus State College and College Park are manageable trips and ND gets to continue playing ACC schools tha't see 'tt are academic peers).

For the Pacific, the B1G probably takes 1 Bay area school (every school in the B1G has from 1% to 5% of it alums living in area w/ the exception of Northwestern which is greater than 5%).

Plus, the B1G would want a vehicle (by the way of having home games) to schmooze the tech companies execs (like Apple) who will be players when it comes to streaming rights.

The last slot out west will likely be between Cal (does UCLA have enough juice to bring Cal into the fold) or would the B1G want a presence in a different market, Colorado?

An alternative would to take both Cal and Colorado, put the Buffs in the Heartland with their old rivals, the Huskers and move Illinois to the Midwest, and Rutgers to the Atlantic.

But this would mean leaving either UVA or Duke on the outside looking in.

Whichever way it ends up, this would give the B1G a national footprint across the northern part of the country, which would include many of the largest population centers while keeping the most desirable (from a national viewership standpoint) regional rivalries intact.

In addition, by adding more teams in the Pacific or Mountain timezone, have more options/variety for having a late start Friday night game (can't have USC and UCLA host every late game on Fridays).

The sanctity of reserving Friday evenings for high school football has been done away with for some time now.

The B1G (and I'm sure, the SEC as well) can make Friday night like Monday or Thursday night football as the NFL has done.

But it would be a 2 game slate with the early game starting at 6:30 or 7 pm Eastern time and the late game at 9:30 pm.
Great analysis! A few comments:

The Heartland pod is super weak, essentially the B10 West now. Not sure the B10 wants that again. I see Cal and Stanford sticking together. I don't think Colorado will go to the B10 but not out of the realm of possibility (see below).

I don't see ND joining the B10 or any conference soon. They will stubbornly hold out for as long as possible. Nothing of significance if anything related to poaching ACC schools will happen until ND moves.

The B10 needs to build up their west coast schools and so more expansion will come from there to also block any impending B12 and Pac 10 teaming up to keep the best of the rest in the Pac 10 like Oregon, Washington and Stanford.

I don't see east coast expansion until the ND mystery is solved. When it does I feel Duke, UNC and UVA will move together. Duke has clout due to academics.

The other region is the NE. I don't think Rutgers is going to be the only NE B10 school but it is possible. I can see BC coming in. I think Va Tech matches up more like a B10 school so they could be in the mix.

Ultimately you could get to 26....

16 now plus...
Oregon
Washington
Stanford
Cal
Duke
UVA
UNC
Va Tech
ND
BC

But that doesn't work so if you drop two then it is Va Tech and BC. If you add two then maybe it is Colorado and Kansas to get to 28.
 

RickinDayton

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May 29, 2001
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Great analysis! A few comments:

The Heartland pod is super weak, essentially the B10 West now. Not sure the B10 wants that again. I see Cal and Stanford sticking together. I don't think Colorado will go to the B10 but not out of the realm of possibility (see below).

I don't see ND joining the B10 or any conference soon. They will stubbornly hold out for as long as possible. Nothing of significance if anything related to poaching ACC schools will happen until ND moves.

The B10 needs to build up their west coast schools and so more expansion will come from there to also block any impending B12 and Pac 10 teaming up to keep the best of the rest in the Pac 10 like Oregon, Washington and Stanford.

I don't see east coast expansion until the ND mystery is solved. When it does I feel Duke, UNC and UVA will move together. Duke has clout due to academics.

The other region is the NE. I don't think Rutgers is going to be the only NE B10 school but it is possible. I can see BC coming in. I think Va Tech matches up more like a B10 school so they could be in the mix.

Ultimately you could get to 26....

16 now plus...
Oregon
Washington
Stanford
Cal
Duke
UVA
UNC
Va Tech
ND
BC

But that doesn't work so if you drop two then it is Va Tech and BC. If you add two then maybe it is Colorado and Kansas to get to 28.
I expect the West Coast buildup. It makes sense for USC & UCLA to smooth out some travel issues and also allow for a true far west pod. I would like to see B1G add Oregon, Washington, Stanford and either Colorado or Utah. I don't think the B1G has to have ND. B1G should pursue the west expansion now and give ND an ultimatum, join or the relationship is done, no ice hockey and no scheduling for other sports.
 

jschrantz

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Jan 20, 2004
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The reason why teams aren’t going to be voted out is because schools would be afraid of being the next one kicked out. No one wants to start that trend so everyone will just continue the status quo of membership unless someone willingly leaves.
Make it like futbol, finish last and you’re out for the next year
 

john4psu

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Sep 7, 2003
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bJqAdyb.jpg

Works for me.
 
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Delco Lion

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Feb 16, 2017
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Great analysis! A few comments:

The Heartland pod is super weak, essentially the B10 West now. Not sure the B10 wants that again. I see Cal and Stanford sticking together. I don't think Colorado will go to the B10 but not out of the realm of possibility (see below).

I don't see ND joining the B10 or any conference soon. They will stubbornly hold out for as long as possible. Nothing of significance if anything related to poaching ACC schools will happen until ND moves.

The B10 needs to build up their west coast schools and so more expansion will come from there to also block any impending B12 and Pac 10 teaming up to keep the best of the rest in the Pac 10 like Oregon, Washington and Stanford.

I don't see east coast expansion until the ND mystery is solved. When it does I feel Duke, UNC and UVA will move together. Duke has clout due to academics.

The other region is the NE. I don't think Rutgers is going to be the only NE B10 school but it is possible. I can see BC coming in. I think Va Tech matches up more like a B10 school so they could be in the mix.

Ultimately you could get to 26....

16 now plus...
Oregon
Washington
Stanford
Cal
Duke
UVA
UNC
Va Tech
ND
BC

But that doesn't work so if you drop two then it is Va Tech and BC. If you add two then maybe it is Colorado and Kansas to get to 28.
I’ve read several articles from Boston College beat writers, and they are pretty concerned. They are not sure that BC will bring the high powered football program, recent success, and name that the BIG will seek. So what does this mean for little brother? never see their name mentioned. Will they be headed to the MAC?😉