Stats are funny sometimes.....

[stormingnorm]

especially when only viewed from "one side of the field".

All of the angst over "blown 4th quarter leads":


Yes, in each of PSU's last 5 losses, PSU had a lead at some point in the 4th quarter.
That is true enough.


But a balanced, and more thorough look, also reveals this:


Over those last 29 games (during which those 5 losses occurred):

1) PSU had the lead going into the 4th quarter TWENTY-FOUR times (1 game was tied going into the 4th, and on 4 occasions PSU was behind)
That, in and of itself is a tremendously positive "statistic".


2) Penn State WON 21 of the 24 games were they entered the 4th Q with the lead (ie, they won 88% of the time they took a lead into the 4th Q... ANOTHER tremendously positive "stat")


3) Penn State also WON 3 of the 4 games were they entered the 4th Q BEHIND in the score. PSU WON 75% of the games that they trailed through 3 quarters. (Another VERY positive "stat")

Can you imagine the angst of "the other guys"...… to lose 75% of the games were you lead after 3 quarters (as opposed to PSU losing just 12% of the time when they led after 3 quarters?)


4) Penn State had the lead - at one point or another - in the 4th quarter of EVERY game they played.
29 out of 29 (Another VERY positive "stat")…..
Which means that ANY and EVERY game they lost HAD TO be a game in which they "lost a 4th quarter lead".

The "complaints" are akin to having a ground game that gains 250+ yards EVERY game over a 2+ year stretch..... and then complaining that in every loss, you lost despite gaining 250+ yards rushing.




Anyway..... things sometimes look different when you take the time to look at the entire picture.



BTW: Here is the COMPLETE list of every BCS team that has led - at some point - in the 4th Q of every game they played over that stretch of time:

Penn State.....

And that is it.

 

[ForesterGump]

I missed the part about how we did against ranked teams. During that time period, we played 8 ranked teams at the time we played them. We won 3. We also lost 2 to an unranked team. Also, 18 of those games were blowouts against lower teams. Usually you have a commanding lead going into the fourth that is very hard to overcome.

We still have 3 ranked teams on the schedule.

Yes, stats are funny sometimes.

 

[Michaelion]

Point 2) Of of the top of my head, I know that 22 of 24 is wrong since they led USC, OSU ‘17, and MSU ‘17 at the start of the 4th Quarter and lost all 3.

 

[Dave-97]

Over the past 20 years, PSU won 11 games just 5 times, Franklin has two of those, if he can't coach, Paterno must have been a complete bust.

 

[PSUcup1]

especially


2) Penn State WON 22 of the 24 games were they entered the 4th Q with the lead (ie, they won 92% of the time they took a lead into the 4th Q... ANOTHER tremendously positive "stat")



And that is it.

FWIW ... i dont think that this stat is accurate

USC in 2016 - PSU lead 49-35
OSU in 2017 - PSU lead 35-20
MSU in 2017 - PSU lead 24-21

but point still stands ... i actually said something similar to friends after the game. that in order to blow 4th quarter leads against good teams, you have to be doing something right to be in that position late in big games

 

[nittanyfan333]

Now stop it Norm, we’ll have none of this. What about these stats?

- nearly 73% of this message board wants (not needs) to be angry at something at all times

- of those 73%, 85% have just miserable lives and have zero ability to put any positive spin on anything. Period.

- 12% of those remaining people, while upset about the back to back losses, haven’t lost all hope and still think there’s a chance we make the playoffs.

- this leaves us with 3% that are just plain mad as two fat ladies on a tight rope.

- however the remaining 26% are normal, realistic, pragmatic human beings who realize that this team wasn’t going to the playoffs from the beginning, and that all the offseason losses were too much for any team other than Alabama to overcome

- the last 1% are just plain shizholians.

 

[Nitwit97]

especially when only viewed from "one side of the field".

All of the angst over "blown 4th quarter leads":


Yes, in each of PSU's last 5 losses, PSU had a lead at some point in the 4th quarter.
That is true enough.


But a balanced, and more thorough look, also reveals this:


Over those last 29 games (during which those 5 losses occurred):

1) PSU had the lead going into the 4th quarter TWENTY-FOUR times (1 game was tied going into the 4th, and on 4 occasions PSU was behind)
That, in and of itself is a tremendously positive "statistic".


2) Penn State WON 22 of the 24 games were they entered the 4th Q with the lead (ie, they won 92% of the time they took a lead into the 4th Q... ANOTHER tremendously positive "stat")


3) Penn State also WON 3 of the 4 games were they entered the 4th Q BEHIND in the score. PSU WON 75% of the games that they trailed through 3 quarters. (Another VERY positive "stat")

Can you imagine the angst of "the other guys"...… to lose 75% of the games were you lead after 3 quarters (as opposed to PSU losing just 8% of the time when they led after 3 quarters?)


4) Penn State had the lead - at one point or another - in the 4th quarter of EVERY game they played.
29 out of 29 (Another VERY positive "stat")…..
Which means that ANY and EVERY game they lost HAD TO be a game in which they "lost a 4th quarter lead".

The "complaints" are akin to having a ground game that gains 250+ yards EVERY game over a 2+ year stretch..... and then complaining that in every loss, you lost despite gaining 250+ yards rushing.




Anyway..... things sometimes look different when you take the time to look at the entire picture.



BTW: Here is the COMPLETE list of every BCS team that has led - at some point - in the 4th Q of every game they played over that stretch of time:

Penn State.....

And that is it.

Hmmmm, would you like to do my taxes? As someone else stated, what is the record against ranked teams, the tough games? The fact that they led at some point in every 4th quarter points to a team that is talented enough to win every week , but somehow the program (that includes coaching and players, because they all row the boat together) finds ways to lose the games that mean the most. I am hoping that Michigan 17 was not the high water mark for this regime. Their record since that game and against ranked teams says a different story.

 

[ImaWright]

I missed the part about how we did against ranked teams. During that time period, we played 8 ranked teams at the time we played them. We won 3. We also lost 2 to an unranked team. Also, 18 of those games were blowouts against lower teams. Usually you have a commanding lead going into the fourth that is very hard to overcome.

We still have 3 ranked teams on the schedule.

Yes, stats are funny sometimes.

Yes, stats are funny. I never understood those that want to use where a team is ranked at the time of the game, especially early in the season (that is just plain stupid). Where does the team finish the year? For example, we lost a few days ago to an unranked team that is now ranked. Earlier in the season they were a top 10 or so team. Where are they really? I'll tell you after the season is over.

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

especially when only viewed from "one side of the field".

All of the angst over "blown 4th quarter leads":


Yes, in each of PSU's last 5 losses, PSU had a lead at some point in the 4th quarter.
That is true enough.


But a balanced, and more thorough look, also reveals this:


Over those last 29 games (during which those 5 losses occurred):

1) PSU had the lead going into the 4th quarter TWENTY-FOUR times (1 game was tied going into the 4th, and on 4 occasions PSU was behind)
That, in and of itself is a tremendously positive "statistic".


2) Penn State WON 22 of the 24 games were they entered the 4th Q with the lead (ie, they won 92% of the time they took a lead into the 4th Q... ANOTHER tremendously positive "stat")


3) Penn State also WON 3 of the 4 games were they entered the 4th Q BEHIND in the score. PSU WON 75% of the games that they trailed through 3 quarters. (Another VERY positive "stat")

Can you imagine the angst of "the other guys"...… to lose 75% of the games were you lead after 3 quarters (as opposed to PSU losing just 8% of the time when they led after 3 quarters?)


4) Penn State had the lead - at one point or another - in the 4th quarter of EVERY game they played.
29 out of 29 (Another VERY positive "stat")…..
Which means that ANY and EVERY game they lost HAD TO be a game in which they "lost a 4th quarter lead".

The "complaints" are akin to having a ground game that gains 250+ yards EVERY game over a 2+ year stretch..... and then complaining that in every loss, you lost despite gaining 250+ yards rushing.




Anyway..... things sometimes look different when you take the time to look at the entire picture.



BTW: Here is the COMPLETE list of every BCS team that has led - at some point - in the 4th Q of every game they played over that stretch of time:

Penn State.....

And that is it.

What are your thoughts here?

2014 Illinois

Penn State gets the ball up 14-13 with 3:14 left.

Akeel Lynch run for 3
Akeel Lynch run for 2
Hack run for 4
Punt

Illinois drives 54 yards - kicks winning FG with 0:08 left.

---------
2014 Maryland

Penn State gets the ball up 19-17 with 3:00 left.

Lynch run for 4
Lynch run for 0
Lynch run for 3
Punt

Maryland drives 17 yards - kicks winning FG with 0:28 left

---------
2015 NW

Penn State gets the ball up 21-20 with 3:10 left.

Barkley run for 6
Barkley run for 3
Barkley run for loss of 1
Punt

NW drives 36 yards - kicks winning FG with 0:08 left

---------
2016 ('17) Rose Bowl

Penn State gets the ball up 49-42 with 3:50 left.

Barkley run for 1
Barkley run for 10
Barkley run for NG
Barkley run for 6
Barkley run for loss of 7
Punt

USC drives 80 yards for TD to tie. After Trace pick, kicks winning FG with 0:00 remaining

---------
2017 Ohio State

Penn State gets the ball up 38-33 with 4:20 left.

Barkley run for loss of 7
Barkley run for loss of 2
Barkley run for 5
Punt

Ohio State drives 58 yards for winning TD

---------
2018 Michigan State

Penn State gets the ball up 17-14 with 1:41 left.

Trace run for 3
Sanders run for loss of 1
Trace run for 3
Punt

Michigan State drives 76 yards for winning TD

 

[PennState_one]

especially when only viewed from "one side of the field".

All of the angst over "blown 4th quarter leads":


Yes, in each of PSU's last 5 losses, PSU had a lead at some point in the 4th quarter.
That is true enough.


But a balanced, and more thorough look, also reveals this:


Over those last 29 games (during which those 5 losses occurred):

1) PSU had the lead going into the 4th quarter TWENTY-FOUR times (1 game was tied going into the 4th, and on 4 occasions PSU was behind)
That, in and of itself is a tremendously positive "statistic".


2) Penn State WON 22 of the 24 games were they entered the 4th Q with the lead (ie, they won 92% of the time they took a lead into the 4th Q... ANOTHER tremendously positive "stat")


3) Penn State also WON 3 of the 4 games were they entered the 4th Q BEHIND in the score. PSU WON 75% of the games that they trailed through 3 quarters. (Another VERY positive "stat")

Can you imagine the angst of "the other guys"...… to lose 75% of the games were you lead after 3 quarters (as opposed to PSU losing just 8% of the time when they led after 3 quarters?)


4) Penn State had the lead - at one point or another - in the 4th quarter of EVERY game they played.
29 out of 29 (Another VERY positive "stat")…..
Which means that ANY and EVERY game they lost HAD TO be a game in which they "lost a 4th quarter lead".

The "complaints" are akin to having a ground game that gains 250+ yards EVERY game over a 2+ year stretch..... and then complaining that in every loss, you lost despite gaining 250+ yards rushing.




Anyway..... things sometimes look different when you take the time to look at the entire picture.



BTW: Here is the COMPLETE list of every BCS team that has led - at some point - in the 4th Q of every game they played over that stretch of time:

Penn State.....

And that is it.

Very interesting Stormingnorm. Good information thanks. Breath of fresh air when all you seem to see is people arguing over more often than not "unprovable" info.

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

All different situations.... and I think I’ve posted plenty of “thoughts” about each of them contemporaneously. Alas.

kk.

 

[nittanyfan333]

just give it up norm, after back to back losses 2 years in a row, the vast majority of armchair analysts and armchair coaches on this board are out for blood. Let 'em at it. Nothing will change their minds.

 

[Obliviax]

Thanks for that info.

I feel like college football is a bit of a different animal than other football levels or games. PSU, having one of the most difficult schedules in recent memory, really plays four games that I'd call a toss up. Those are tOSU, Sparty, Wiscy and Michigan. Throwing stats in for games like Kent, Pitt and App State are meaningless. So that makes these stats uninteresting to me, except in how they compare to other like-kind programs.

What they do tell me is what I already know:

• As CJF said, we are a good but not elite program
• We have problems sustaining leads in the 4th against good programs
• Our scheme is explosive offense and not one that allows us to sustain drives when we need to control the ball
• That means we have to have a big lead or we have to run a high risk offense in the 4th quarter with a less than two-TD lead
• When you pass, you stop the clock when it is incomplete, a tipped ball can be intercepted, you can get sacked. That would also lead to a lot of fan criticism.

At the end of the day, I like our offense but even with the best RB in college football, we have had problems on 3rd/4th and short as well as at crunch time. It is what it is.

 

[psugisher]

What are your thoughts here?

2014 Illinois

Penn State gets the ball up 14-13 with 3:14 left.

Akeel Lynch run for 3
Akeel Lynch run for 2
Hack run for 4
Punt

Illinois drives 54 yards - kicks winning FG with 0:08 left.

---------
2014 Maryland

Penn State gets the ball up 19-17 with 3:00 left.

Lynch run for 4
Lynch run for 0
Lynch run for 3
Punt

Maryland drives 17 yards - kicks winning FG with 0:28 left

---------
2015 NW

Penn State gets the ball up 21-20 with 3:10 left.

Barkley run for 6
Barkley run for 3
Barkley run for loss of 1
Punt

NW drives 36 yards - kicks winning FG with 0:08 left

---------
2016 ('17) Rose Bowl

Penn State gets the ball up 49-42 with 3:50 left.

Barkley run for 1
Barkley run for 10
Barkley run for NG
Barkley run for 6
Barkley run for loss of 7
Punt

USC drives 80 yards for TD to tie. After Trace pick, kicks winning FG with 0:00 remaining

---------
2017 Ohio State

Penn State gets the ball up 38-33 with 4:20 left.

Barkley run for loss of 7
Barkley run for loss of 2
Barkley run for 5
Punt

Ohio State drives 58 yards for winning TD

---------
2018 Michigan State

Penn State gets the ball up 17-14 with 1:41 left.

Trace run for 3
Sanders run for loss of 1
Trace run for 3
Punt

Michigan State drives 76 yards for winning TD

I'm going to continue defending Franklin and this team because they are now good enough to be competitive with anyone and win any game, but this is definitely a trend. There's not one game where we've had a one score lead late and have been able to get the necessary first down or two to end a game in victory formation. And if you look at the plays of the 6 games above, zero passes, one first down. The offense is allegedly designed to take what the defense gives you. Teams sell out to stop the run. It feels like we have no issue with throwing it around in the 4th quarter with a big lead like we're practicing "closing" out a game but then when it's tight and winning time, we pucker up. Once we start running the ball down somebody's throat and having a light's out defense, I'll be fine with 3 runs and punt if necessary. The 2nd to last possession Saturday we were snapping the ball with 10-20 seconds on the play clock. If we run that time off, MSU is forced to go for it on 4th and long instead of kicking it back to us because there'd be a minute left instead of almost 2. It confirms the staff can't manage the end of a game when the pressure is really on. They have to fix it or it will continue. It's almost like we're better trailing because we're the aggressor.

 

[WDLion]

especially when only viewed from "one side of the field".

All of the angst over "blown 4th quarter leads":


Yes, in each of PSU's last 5 losses, PSU had a lead at some point in the 4th quarter.
That is true enough.


But a balanced, and more thorough look, also reveals this:


Over those last 29 games (during which those 5 losses occurred):

1) PSU had the lead going into the 4th quarter TWENTY-FOUR times (1 game was tied going into the 4th, and on 4 occasions PSU was behind)
That, in and of itself is a tremendously positive "statistic".


2) Penn State WON 21 of the 24 games were they entered the 4th Q with the lead (ie, they won 88% of the time they took a lead into the 4th Q... ANOTHER tremendously positive "stat")


3) Penn State also WON 3 of the 4 games were they entered the 4th Q BEHIND in the score. PSU WON 75% of the games that they trailed through 3 quarters. (Another VERY positive "stat")

Can you imagine the angst of "the other guys"...… to lose 75% of the games were you lead after 3 quarters (as opposed to PSU losing just 8% of the time when they led after 3 quarters?)


4) Penn State had the lead - at one point or another - in the 4th quarter of EVERY game they played.
29 out of 29 (Another VERY positive "stat")…..
Which means that ANY and EVERY game they lost HAD TO be a game in which they "lost a 4th quarter lead".

The "complaints" are akin to having a ground game that gains 250+ yards EVERY game over a 2+ year stretch..... and then complaining that in every loss, you lost despite gaining 250+ yards rushing.




Anyway..... things sometimes look different when you take the time to look at the entire picture.



BTW: Here is the COMPLETE list of every BCS team that has led - at some point - in the 4th Q of every game they played over that stretch of time:

Penn State.....

And that is it.

250 yds rushing. Problem is 200 comes on 5 plays and only 50 on the other 25 running plays.

 

[Bob78]

250 yds rushing. Problem is 200 comes on 5 plays and only 50 on the other 25 running plays.

Agree, more or less.... but isn't that the way it is much of the time when there are huge rushing yardage stats for any team? Not all the time; sometimes most of the carries are around the average with just one or two longer runs (maybe an Army or Navy style of offense), but an average of 8 ypc (250/30) often means there were a handful of 'chunk' plays of 20+ yards per carry, and then a whole bunch of 1 or 2 or 3 yarders, with a bunch of 5 or 7 or 8 yarders thrown in, too. Coaches set goals of a certain minimum number of chunk plays per game for just that reason... they are somewhat rare.

We're not unique in the stat you cite, it just seems that way because we pay attention to PSU far more than any other team.
Just a thought.

 

[WDLion]

Agree, more or less.... but isn't that the way it is much of the time when there are huge rushing yardage stats for any team? Not all the time; sometimes most of the carries are around the average with just one or two longer runs (maybe an Army or Navy style of offense), but an average of 8 ypc (250/30) often means there were a handful of 'chunk' plays of 20+ yards per carry, and then a whole bunch of 1 or 2 or 3 yarders, with a bunch of 5 or 7 or 8 yarders thrown in, too. Coaches set goals of a certain minimum number of chunk plays per game for just that reason... they are somewhat rare.

We're not unique in the stat you cite, it just seems that way because we pay attention to PSU far more than any other team.
Just a thought.

True but we have way to many plays that go for little or minus yards. Seems like many more than most teams.

 

[LuvDaLions]

As much as it sucks to lose, this is a bit of a rebuilding year, we're not quite to the point where we reload every year. Consider we lost 9 starters on defense (plus Buckholz and Brown before the season even started). On offense we lost arguably the best running back in school history (maybe even NCAA history), the schools all time leading receiver, and the best tight end we've had in at least 20 years. That's 3 of our top 4 weapons on offense gone. Maybe we were just expecting a little too much from such a young team. Next year we return most of our players.

 

[fastlax16]

Repost for games against ranked teams.

 

[WDLion]

Repost for games against ranked teams.

It “seems” like PSU has more minus yardage plays?

That is a simple quatifiable number - easy enough to look up. Why would you think it “seems” to be that way, when one can look up that figure in the matter of a few seconds?


Spoiler: it ain’t what you think it “seems” to be.
PSU is tied for 28th FEWEST negative yardage plays, among all FBS teams (of which there are 125)

How do we rank among the top teams?

 

[Option Bob]

I'm going to continue defending Franklin and this team because they are now good enough to be competitive with anyone and win any game, but this is definitely a trend. There's not one game where we've had a one score lead late and have been able to get the necessary first down or two to end a game in victory formation.

1. We ended the CCG vs Wisconsin on offense ... Trace ran and slid rather than take a knee, but same concept.

 

[ChiTownLion]

Pin this.

 

[fastlax16]

1. We ended the CCG vs Wisconsin on offense ... Trace ran and slid rather than take a knee, but same concept.

They didn't need to pick up a first down on that drive. Game was won as soon as the offense got the ball.

 

[PSUcup1]

I'm going to continue defending Franklin and this team because they are now good enough to be competitive with anyone and win any game, but this is definitely a trend. There's not one game where we've had a one score lead late and have been able to get the necessary first down or two to end a game in victory formation. And if you look at the plays of the 6 games above, zero passes, one first down. The offense is allegedly designed to take what the defense gives you. Teams sell out to stop the run. It feels like we have no issue with throwing it around in the 4th quarter with a big lead like we're practicing "closing" out a game but then when it's tight and winning time, we pucker up. Once we start running the ball down somebody's throat and having a light's out defense, I'll be fine with 3 runs and punt if necessary. The 2nd to last possession Saturday we were snapping the ball with 10-20 seconds on the play clock. If we run that time off, MSU is forced to go for it on 4th and long instead of kicking it back to us because there'd be a minute left instead of almost 2. It confirms the staff can't manage the end of a game when the pressure is really on. They have to fix it or it will continue. It's almost like we're better trailing because we're the aggressor.

i re-watched that 2nd to last drive yesterday ... we left 42 seconds on the clock by snapping when we did on 1st and 2nd down (after the initial 1st down by JJ) ... obviously this was huge at the very end of the game

 

[ILLINOISLION]

i re-watched that 2nd to last drive yesterday ... we left 42 seconds on the clock by snapping when we did on 1st and 2nd down (after the initial 1st down by JJ) ... obviously this was huge at the very end of the game

I was stunned.....STUNNED.....watching the game and snapping the ball with SO MUCH time left on the clock.

THERE IS NO EXCUSE WHATSOEVER FOR THIS DEBACLE. Talk about taking care of the “little” things.....let’s take care of the big and obvious things too!