Statistical Analysis of Pat Chambers' progress

[wbcincy]

I've been doing this annually for the last couple years around the 2nd week of February, taking a statistical look at the progress of Chambers and the PSU hoops program. Ms. Barbour has said that the future of Pat will depend upon whether or not he's showing progress. Let's take a look at what kind of progress, or lack thereof, Pat has seen this season.

First, his record (note for all stats I am including postseason):

'11-12: 12-20 (4-15)
'12-13: 10-21 (2-17)
'13-14: 16-18 (6-13)
'14-15: 18-16 (6-15)
'15-16: 16-16 (7-12)
'16-17: 15-18 (7-13)
'17-18: 18-9 (8-6)

They have already achieved Penn State's best record in the B1G since Chambers' arrival. Granted, the remaining schedule is rough, but they've already got more wins than any team we've seen in the past 6 years, and they still have 4 regular season games plus at least 1 B1G tournament game left to go. If Penn State wins 2 of the final four regular season games, it will tie for the 2nd most regular season B1G wins since we joined.


The record is better, but let's see how SOS has looked like during this span:

'11-12: 22nd
'12-13: 8
'13-14: 51
'14-15: 55
'15-16: 61
'16-17: 32
'17-18: 104

The OOC schedule was a joke and its killed the SOS number. That said, the OSU, Michigan and Purdue games will, I believe, bring that SOS into the top 100.

Of course, wins and losses alone don't always tell the whole story, so let's look at the point per game differentials:

'11-12: -4.0 ppg
'12-13: -6.7
'13-14: +0.9
'14-15: +0.7
'15-16: -3.8
'16-17: -1.0
'17-18: +10.3

Thus far, the current team has the best ppg differential since Chambers arrived by a mile. The OOC schedule was pretty terrible, so let's narrow it down and just look at the differential in B1G games during the span:

'11-12: -8.4 ppg
'12-13: -10.5
'13-14: -4.0
'14-15: -3.0
'15-16: -7.6
'16-17: -4.6
'17-18: +3.7

Through 14 B1G games, it's the first time PSU has a positive point differential, and an 8.3 point swing from last season (and 6.7 points per game better than any of the previous 6 seasons). This is mostly due to the fact they aren't getting blown out anymore, the games are always close.


Here is a look at how many times Penn State lost games by at least 10 points each season (and then how many were by 20+)


'11-12: 13 (3)
'12-13: 11 (4)
'13-14: 8 (1)
'14-15: 4 (2)
'15-16: 11 (7)
'16-17: 10 (5)
'17-18: 2 (0)


Both 10+ point losses this season were by 11, and one of those, against Minnesota, is misleading as that game was tied at the end of regulation. So if competitiveness is a sign of progress, those numbers are interesting.

Combining the above, there's a stat called the Simple Rating System which weighs strength of schedule with margin of victory/defeat. This helps to compare teams across years where SOS has varied:

'11-12: 115
'12-13: 123
'13-14: 75
'14-15: 73
'15-16: 119
'16-17: 75
'17-18: 46 (before tonight's game)

This season the team currently has the best SRS during Chambers' tenure by a significant margin.

The remaining games will tell the story, but anyone thinking this team hasn't shown significant progress is ignoring reality. Fairly assuming their continued development, this group as upperclassmen would start making history for PSU basketball. Regardless, if Ms. Barbour is judging Pat in terms of progress, the numbers are impossible to ignore.

 

[Norm Petersin]

Look at our track record for 20 years. Winning hasn't mattered.

 

[harjeff]

Statistics are one thing, but just watching the games you see so many things that are problematic and most of that, IMO ha to do with coaching.

1 - How the offense is run, what are the guys doing off the ball
2 - How / When to substitute
3 - Defensive philosophy....what is it...do we press?

While I don't discount the recruiting effort Chambers has done, which has been phenomenal, IMO...at least he gets the players in the program who can actually play!

They have been doing a better job recently, but in the mid season when the team was losing several games that should have been wins you would see the problems discussed above

Carr would try to do to much near end of games and force a ton of bad shots
- yesterday was a good example with PSU leading by about 10 with 6 minutes to go, Carr broke down the defense and got to the foul line....however, instead of forcing a tough shot with 2 guys on him, he dished to the wing for the wide open 3, which was knocked down. these are the kinds of decisions we were not seeing earlier this season.

Point 2 - There was a game a while back where Garner had hit 3 or 4 consecutive 3's and then Pat subs him out....just because that is what you usually do doesn't mean you don't adjust to a hot hand! That was a terrible decision and when Garner came back in after about 5- minutes he couldn't hit nothing.

These are just a few examples of bad game management and this is what needs improved if post season tourney's are going to be in the future. Can Pat figure it out? Don't know, but at least the last few weeks have been encouraging.

 

[john4psu]

Good stuff wb, thanks for researching and posting that.

 

[91Joe95]

 

[AWS1022]

I don’t think Pat is going anywhere. My concern is if Carr leaves early, what will this team look like next year? Another year of not making the tournament. If he stays, they likely will make the tourney, but then what about the following year since Carr and Watkins will probably leave. Are we back to another 8 years without a tournament appearance? One NCAA appearance in 16 years isn’t good enough for any coach at any program.

 

[Andy84]

When we beat Iowa for the sixth Big10 conference win, it was the first time since 94-96 that PSU won at least six regular season conference games in three consecutive years. Assuming the underclassmen return giving a strong chance of at least six next year, that would mark the first four year run of at least 6. That's some lousy basketball history.

 

[psualum10]

Statistics are one thing, but just watching the games you see so many things that are problematic and most of that, IMO ha to do with coaching.

1 - How the offense is run, what are the guys doing off the ball
2 - How / When to substitute
3 - Defensive philosophy....what is it...do we press?

While I don't discount the recruiting effort Chambers has done, which has been phenomenal, IMO...at least he gets the players in the program who can actually play!

They have been doing a better job recently, but in the mid season when the team was losing several games that should have been wins you would see the problems discussed above

Carr would try to do to much near end of games and force a ton of bad shots
- yesterday was a good example with PSU leading by about 10 with 6 minutes to go, Carr broke down the defense and got to the foul line....however, instead of forcing a tough shot with 2 guys on him, he dished to the wing for the wide open 3, which was knocked down. these are the kinds of decisions we were not seeing earlier this season.

Point 2 - There was a game a while back where Garner had hit 3 or 4 consecutive 3's and then Pat subs him out....just because that is what you usually do doesn't mean you don't adjust to a hot hand! That was a terrible decision and when Garner came back in after about 5- minutes he couldn't hit nothing.

These are just a few examples of bad game management and this is what needs improved if post season tourney's are going to be in the future. Can Pat figure it out? Don't know, but at least the last few weeks have been encouraging.

So you say how the coaching needs to improve .... yet you're making a point on how it's improved? Lol wouldn't that be on Chambers if mid season Carr was doing one thing and now Carr's doing something else that's completely better for both himself and the team?

 

[LionsandBear]

I've been doing this annually for the last couple years around the 2nd week of February, taking a statistical look at the progress of Chambers and the PSU hoops program. Ms. Barbour has said that the future of Pat will depend upon whether or not he's showing progress. Let's take a look at what kind of progress, or lack thereof, Pat has seen this season.

First, his record (note for all stats I am including postseason):

'11-12: 12-20 (4-15)
'12-13: 10-21 (2-17)
'13-14: 16-18 (6-13)
'14-15: 18-16 (6-15)
'15-16: 16-16 (7-12)
'16-17: 15-18 (7-13)
'17-18: 18-9 (8-6)

They have already achieved Penn State's best record in the B1G since Chambers' arrival. Granted, the remaining schedule is rough, but they've already got more wins than any team we've seen in the past 6 years, and they still have 4 regular season games plus at least 1 B1G tournament game left to go. If Penn State wins 2 of the final four regular season games, it will tie for the 2nd most regular season B1G wins since we joined.


The record is better, but let's see how SOS has looked like during this span:

'11-12: 22nd
'12-13: 8
'13-14: 51
'14-15: 55
'15-16: 61
'16-17: 32
'17-18: 117

The OOC schedule was a joke and its killed the SOS number. That said, the OSU, Michigan and Purdue games will, I believe, bring that SOS into the top 100.

Of course, wins and losses alone don't always tell the whole story, so let's look at the point per game differentials:

'11-12: -4.0 ppg
'12-13: -6.7
'13-14: +0.9
'14-15: +0.7
'15-16: -3.8
'16-17: -1.0
'17-18: +10.3

Thus far, the current team has the best ppg differential since Chambers arrived by a mile. The OOC schedule was pretty terrible, so let's narrow it down and just look at the differential in B1G games during the span:

'11-12: -8.4 ppg
'12-13: -10.5
'13-14: -4.0
'14-15: -3.0
'15-16: -7.6
'16-17: -4.6
'17-18: +3.7

Through 14 B1G games, it's the first time PSU has a positive point differential, and an 8.3 point swing from last season (and 6.7 points per game better than any of the previous 6 seasons). This is mostly due to the fact they aren't getting blown out anymore, the games are always close.


Here is a look at how many times Penn State lost games by at least 10 points each season (and then how many were by 20+)


'11-12: 13 (3)
'12-13: 11 (4)
'13-14: 8 (1)
'14-15: 4 (2)
'15-16: 11 (7)
'16-17: 10 (5)
'17-18: 2 (0)


Both 10+ point losses this season were by 11, and one of those, against Minnesota, is misleading as that game was tied at the end of regulation. So if competitiveness is a sign of progress, those numbers are interesting.

Combining the above, there's a stat called the Simple Rating System which weighs strength of schedule with margin of victory/defeat. This helps to compare teams across years where SOS has varied:

'11-12: 115
'12-13: 123
'13-14: 75
'14-15: 73
'15-16: 119
'16-17: 75
'17-18: 46 (before tonight's game)

This season the team currently has the best SRS during Chambers' tenure by a significant margin.

The remaining games will tell the story, but anyone thinking this team hasn't shown significant progress is ignoring reality. Fairly assuming their continued development, this group as upperclassmen would start making history for PSU basketball. Regardless, if Ms. Barbour is judging Pat in terms of progress, the numbers are impossible to ignore.

PSU BB has a long history of underachieving and it takes a dedicated individual with a lot of patience and vision to reverse that. While it hasn't been pretty at times, Chambers has this program moving in the right direction in regards to recruiting and wins and losses. My vote would be to extend him and stay the course.

 

[NewEra 2014]

I don’t think Pat is going anywhere. My concern is if Carr leaves early, what will this team look like next year? Another year of not making the tournament. If he stays, they likely will make the tourney, but then what about the following year since Carr and Watkins will probably leave. Are we back to another 8 years without a tournament appearance? One NCAA appearance in 16 years isn’t good enough for any coach at any program.

If only Carr leaves, it will be addition by subtraction. Penn State would be a better team, and they would have better results. If Watkins leaves, then we got problems.

 

[Ian]

Great analysis. I really only look at performance in B1G games although another interesting stat that is over looked is score by halves. PSU is 22-5 in the 1st half and 12-2 in the B1G. Say what you will but this team battles and is only bitten by a weak bench which often times plays out in the 2nd half. They are not intimidated by anyone, especially with Reaves in the lineup. Opposing teams and coaches have noticed, too. The starting five will play pro ball somewhere. The next four games will be exciting and I expect them to go 2-2, maybe 3-1, and sneak into the top four in the B1G. For the fans, get behind this team. Get out there and get loud on thursday night. It’s another opportunity to stick it to O$U!

 

[fairgambit]

I've been doing this annually for the last couple years around the 2nd week of February, taking a statistical look at the progress of Chambers and the PSU hoops program. Ms. Barbour has said that the future of Pat will depend upon whether or not he's showing progress. Let's take a look at what kind of progress, or lack thereof, Pat has seen this season.

First, his record (note for all stats I am including postseason):

'11-12: 12-20 (4-15)
'12-13: 10-21 (2-17)
'13-14: 16-18 (6-13)
'14-15: 18-16 (6-15)
'15-16: 16-16 (7-12)
'16-17: 15-18 (7-13)
'17-18: 18-9 (8-6)

They have already achieved Penn State's best record in the B1G since Chambers' arrival. Granted, the remaining schedule is rough, but they've already got more wins than any team we've seen in the past 6 years, and they still have 4 regular season games plus at least 1 B1G tournament game left to go. If Penn State wins 2 of the final four regular season games, it will tie for the 2nd most regular season B1G wins since we joined.


The record is better, but let's see how SOS has looked like during this span:

'11-12: 22nd
'12-13: 8
'13-14: 51
'14-15: 55
'15-16: 61
'16-17: 32
'17-18: 117

The OOC schedule was a joke and its killed the SOS number. That said, the OSU, Michigan and Purdue games will, I believe, bring that SOS into the top 100.

Of course, wins and losses alone don't always tell the whole story, so let's look at the point per game differentials:

'11-12: -4.0 ppg
'12-13: -6.7
'13-14: +0.9
'14-15: +0.7
'15-16: -3.8
'16-17: -1.0
'17-18: +10.3

Thus far, the current team has the best ppg differential since Chambers arrived by a mile. The OOC schedule was pretty terrible, so let's narrow it down and just look at the differential in B1G games during the span:

'11-12: -8.4 ppg
'12-13: -10.5
'13-14: -4.0
'14-15: -3.0
'15-16: -7.6
'16-17: -4.6
'17-18: +3.7

Through 14 B1G games, it's the first time PSU has a positive point differential, and an 8.3 point swing from last season (and 6.7 points per game better than any of the previous 6 seasons). This is mostly due to the fact they aren't getting blown out anymore, the games are always close.


Here is a look at how many times Penn State lost games by at least 10 points each season (and then how many were by 20+)


'11-12: 13 (3)
'12-13: 11 (4)
'13-14: 8 (1)
'14-15: 4 (2)
'15-16: 11 (7)
'16-17: 10 (5)
'17-18: 2 (0)


Both 10+ point losses this season were by 11, and one of those, against Minnesota, is misleading as that game was tied at the end of regulation. So if competitiveness is a sign of progress, those numbers are interesting.

Combining the above, there's a stat called the Simple Rating System which weighs strength of schedule with margin of victory/defeat. This helps to compare teams across years where SOS has varied:

'11-12: 115
'12-13: 123
'13-14: 75
'14-15: 73
'15-16: 119
'16-17: 75
'17-18: 46 (before tonight's game)

This season the team currently has the best SRS during Chambers' tenure by a significant margin.

The remaining games will tell the story, but anyone thinking this team hasn't shown significant progress is ignoring reality. Fairly assuming their continued development, this group as upperclassmen would start making history for PSU basketball. Regardless, if Ms. Barbour is judging Pat in terms of progress, the numbers are impossible to ignore.

Your numbers reinforce a conclusion I came to within the past month. NCAA bid or not, this team has made enough progress that Pat needs to stay and finish the difficult task he was given. By all appearances he runs a clean program and is a 1st class guy. Should he stay? I vote Yea.

 

[Erial_Lion]

If only Carr leaves, it will be addition by subtraction. Penn State would be a better team, and they would have better results.

Couldn't be further from the truth...

 

[acg116]

If only Carr leaves, it will be addition by subtraction. Penn State would be a better team, and they would have better results. If Watkins leaves, then we got problems.

No way that's true about Carr. Team leader in points by a wide margin, assists, and three point %.

 

[Ranger Dan]

Statistics are one thing, but just watching the games you see so many things that are problematic and most of that, IMO ha to do with coaching.

1 - How the offense is run, what are the guys doing off the ball
2 - How / When to substitute
3 - Defensive philosophy....what is it...do we press?

While I don't discount the recruiting effort Chambers has done, which has been phenomenal, IMO...at least he gets the players in the program who can actually play!

They have been doing a better job recently, but in the mid season when the team was losing several games that should have been wins you would see the problems discussed above

Carr would try to do to much near end of games and force a ton of bad shots
- yesterday was a good example with PSU leading by about 10 with 6 minutes to go, Carr broke down the defense and got to the foul line....however, instead of forcing a tough shot with 2 guys on him, he dished to the wing for the wide open 3, which was knocked down. these are the kinds of decisions we were not seeing earlier this season.

Point 2 - There was a game a while back where Garner had hit 3 or 4 consecutive 3's and then Pat subs him out....just because that is what you usually do doesn't mean you don't adjust to a hot hand! That was a terrible decision and when Garner came back in after about 5- minutes he couldn't hit nothing.

These are just a few examples of bad game management and this is what needs improved if post season tourney's are going to be in the future. Can Pat figure it out? Don't know, but at least the last few weeks have been encouraging.

Either you aren't really watching games or you have formed an opinion about Chambers and are going to die with it. Look at the games that Penn State plays well.. they pass well and execute both the offense and defense well. Basketball is situational, dependant on match ups, and is full of ebbs and flows. If you watch the 2017/18 Penn State basketball team and say that they aren't being coached well then I'm not going to convince you otherwise. I'm not saying that Chambers is John Wooden, Coach K, or even Pete Carill (Princeton coach), but when he has enough talent at his disposal and they execute, he is a good coach.

 

[PineIslandLion]

Without digesting all of the relevant numbers, hard to refute the fact that real progress has been made. But being objective, making the NCAA tourney is a long shot. Assuming the core of this team all returns next year, PSU should be well positioned to make the tourney. In fact, they'll probably be picked as a preseason top 4 team in the Big 10.

My concern is where do we go after next year? It all begins and ends with recruiting, and if you haven't noticed, while Chambers has signed some solid kids (like Dread & Bolton), a major overall talent drop off is coming 1-2 years away). PSU's last 2 recruiting classes aren't scaring anyone in the Big 10. We very well may hit our pinnacle in the next 1-2 years, but I'm afraid a return to the bottom tier of the Big 10 is imminent, after our super Sophs have moved on. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[wbcincy]

Without digesting all of the relevant numbers, hard to refute the fact that real progress has been made. But being objective, making the NCAA tourney is a long shot. Assuming the core of this team all returns next year, PSU should be well positioned to make the tourney. In fact, they'll probably be picked as a preseason top 4 team in the Big 10.

My concern is where do we go after next year? It all begins and ends with recruiting, and if you haven't noticed, while Chambers has signed some solid kids (like Dread & Bolton), a major overall talent drop off is coming 1-2 years away). PSU's last 2 recruiting classes aren't scaring anyone in the Big 10. We very well may hit our pinnacle in the next 1-2 years, but I'm afraid a return to the bottom tier of the Big 10 is imminent, after our super Sophs have moved on. Hope I'm wrong.

Well, the hope was that the team would make the NIT this year and perform well, then make the NCAA the next two years. If they did that, I have to believe Pat would parlay that into significant recruiting improvements. If the guy could recruit like he has when there was no success on the court, it stands to reason he'd do some great things when they're showing consistent success.

There was really no way he was going to land players like Carr/Stevens/Watkins while those guys were freshmen and sophomores. The reason we could land those guys was that we could say you're going to start day 1. You can't have no tradition or recent success AND no opportunity to start early and expect to land top guys. But when Carr/Stevens/Watkins are getting ready to graduate and we've had success on the court, then he should be able to land players of that quality again. That will be the key to this things snowballing. That and landing important role players or diamonds in the rough between those two things (which I think he's done with the 2 most recent groups).

 

[NewEra 2014]

Couldn't be further from the truth...

Carr's teammates standing around with their shoulders slumped during the last 5 minutes of a close game while Carr plays hero ball would say differently.

 

[wbcincy]

Carr's teammates standing around with their shoulders slumped during the last 5 minutes of a close game while Carr plays hero ball would say differently.

When is the last game you watched?

 

[Erial_Lion]

Carr's teammates standing around with their shoulders slumped during the last 5 minutes of a close game while Carr plays hero ball would say differently.

Yea, with a team that's thin to begin with, dropping an all-Big Ten guard that shoots 45% from deep from the rotation and replacing him with a freshman that can't shoot yet and appeared to hit the wall a few weeks ago would make us better. Wow.

And then, where do we turn when Wheeler is in foul trouble or needs a break?

 

[AWS1022]

Carr's teammates standing around with their shoulders slumped during the last 5 minutes of a close game while Carr plays hero ball would say differently.

Games that wouldn’t have been close without Carr. This team will have a huge drop off when Carr leaves.

 

[mdking001]

Great analysis WB! And it puts some things in perspective. Thanks for taking the time. I am with you, it is time to ride this thing out and see what can happen. The key will be if fans come back and AD office sees that interest peaked and they actually do something about paying the assistant coaches, larger recruiting budget, upgrade in lockers and such to help get recruits. If that Philly pipeline doesn't have a leak, Pat will continue to build.

BTW, those ripping Carr haven't watched the past 5 games. It appears he had a talking to and things have drastically changed. The talking heads even mention it.

WB, I imagine there were some significant injuries that limited previous teams so you may just have to call it a wash. But I fully believe PSU has 2 more wins if Reeves wasn't knee jerk put on academic suspension. Carr and Watkins get all the glamour (and recently Garner) but Reeves is the glue that keeps this engine together.

I am really enjoying this team. Fun to watch from afar. Believe me if I were closer I would be attending games for sure.

 

[psu00]

Honestly, I’m still not sold. The record is a few games better than the last 2 years..... but with a weak Non con schedule and in a year where the big ten is universally considered to be down.

Is this real improvement or just a blip on the radar of an otherwise uninspiring 7 years? Is it enough to give Chambers a multi year extension (and tie yourself to a bigger buy out) should things return to baseline next year? It will be interesting to see how Sandy handles the situation.

 

[Ranger Dan]

The record is better, but let's see how SOS has looked like during this span:

'11-12: 22nd
'12-13: 8
'13-14: 51
'14-15: 55
'15-16: 61
'16-17: 32
'17-18: 104

How the heck did Penn State have the number 8 strength of schedule in 2012-13? Their OOC doesn't look that great based upon name recognition... maybe it was a crazy strong year for the big ten or the OOC opponents were better than I believe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012–13_Penn_State_Nittany_Lions_basketball_team

 

[Raffycorn]

How the heck did Penn State have the number 8 strength of schedule in 2012-13? Their OOC doesn't look that great based upon name recognition... maybe it was a crazy strong year for the big ten or the OOC opponents were better than I believe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012–13_Penn_State_Nittany_Lions_basketball_team

NC State, Akron, Bucknell, and La Salle were all NCAA tournament teams that we played OOC - that was the “West Philly Floater” Sweet Sixteen La Salle squad. Providence was an NIT team that we played OOC, too.

It’s also the year that got derailed for Penn State when Frazier ripped up his achilles early in the year.

Edit: the Big Ten also ended up with four teams in the top 10.

 

[heckmans]

There must be a lot of these programs, but with the overall success of Penn State's athletic program, men's basketball's lack of success stands out and should not be tolerated. On the bright side, the media is starting to notice the talent at Penn State, and recent conference wins help the program's profile. The question is whether Pat can continue to build the program. Can he continue to recruit at a high level (year after year after year)? Is he the guy?

I don't know if he's the guy, but I know he's the best guy PSU has had in 20+ years, if not more. The team has talent, but lacks depth so an injury or one kid being ineligible can be devastating. As I've said before, barring a total collapse, Pat deserves to see the Sophomore class through to graduation.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

Pat was really on the fence a few weeks ago but I think he has probably saved his job for one more year. Win 2 if the next 3 and we are probably in the NCAA tournament. Less than that and we have to go deep in the BTT.

If this team does not suffer transfers they are a top 3 team in the league next year. It has been a LONG time since we were in that position (once ever, I think)

 

[Nittany Ziggy]

Thanks for the research WB. This was nice work. I agree that Chambers should be given more time.

 

[Ian]

Chambers has assembled a starting five that is just as productive, if not more so, than O$U, MSU, and Purdue’s. Now they will have the chance to prove it during this stretch run. Stay healthy and stay out of foul trouble and they can hang with the big boys. They’ve already proven that @ MSU and @ O$U. A jacked up BJC crowd should elevate their game.

 

[78SweetRevenge]

If we're being honest...the team is improving but the schedule explains the record. This team still isn't very good.

 

[wbcincy]

If we're being honest...the team is improving but the schedule explains the record. This team still isn't very good.

I disagree on them not being very good. They were an average team, but have progressed and become a good team in the past month IMO. I'll be interested to see what kind of line vegas sets for Thursday matchup against the #8 team in the country. I think it'll indicate the sharps believe we're decent as well. (i'm expecting OSU -4).

 

[psualum10]

I disagree on them not being very good. They were an average team, but have progressed and become a good team in the past month IMO. I'll be interested to see what kind of line vegas sets for Thursday matchup against the #8 team in the country. I think it'll indicate the sharps believe we're decent as well. (i'm expecting OSU -4).

ESPN's BPI has this as a 50/50 game ... against the #8 team in the country ... but I mean what do they know? We're not very good and all

 

[Ian]

I’ll take PSU straight up. It’s their time to shine at home in front of a raucous crowd a day before THON!

 

[78SweetRevenge]

ESPN's BPI has this as a 50/50 game ... against the #8 team in the country ... but I mean what do they know? We're not very good and all

We'll see how these last four games play out and what happens in the B1G tournament. You think they're better than I do. I think if they made the tournament as an 11/12 seed they'd get destroyed but I hope you're right. I'm not overly impressed with this team. There's no depth. Too many turnovers and way to many fouls. But, they are beating the teams they're supposed to beat so I give them credit for that...and the win against Ohio State was impressive.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I disagree on them not being very good. They were an average team, but have progressed and become a good team in the past month IMO. I'll be interested to see what kind of line vegas sets for Thursday matchup against the #8 team in the country. I think it'll indicate the sharps believe we're decent as well. (i'm expecting OSU -4).

It won't be that high. I think we'll see between 1 and 2 (I've got it at 1.5).

 

[Erial_Lion]

We'll see how these last four games play out and what happens in the B1G tournament. You think they're better than I do. I think if they made the tournament as an 11/12 seed they'd get destroyed but I hope you're right. I'm not overly impressed with this team. There's no depth. Too many turnovers and way to many fouls. But, they are beating the teams they're supposed to beat so I give them credit for that...and the win against Ohio State was impressive.

We haven't gotten destroyed once all season. It's really one of the reasons that the predictive metrics like us so much.

 

[78SweetRevenge]

We haven't gotten destroyed once all season. It's really one of the reasons that the predictive metrics like us so much.

Fair point...hopefully that remains true come Monday

 

[wbcincy]

I agree...it was basically the perfect storm

Someone Vegas disagrees. Pick 'em game tonight. Odd for a team that isn't any good to be pick 'em against a top 10 team.

 

[tboyer]

The starting five will play pro ball somewhere. /QUOTE]

That says a lot right there. Through most of my lifetime, maybe 1 of PSU's starting five would have any shot at the NBA; in a really good year it would be 2.

For the first time ever PSU has 6 maybe 7 players who can match up with the top half of the Big Ten. When they get to 10, it will be another step up. Right now they're still at the point where one key player in foul trouble is hard to overcome. Meaning one foul-happy ref has the power to take them out of a game any time he wants.

But this is progress, absolutely no question.

 

[psualum10]

We'll see how these last four games play out and what happens in the B1G tournament. You think they're better than I do. I think if they made the tournament as an 11/12 seed they'd get destroyed but I hope you're right. I'm not overly impressed with this team. There's no depth. Too many turnovers and way to many fouls. But, they are beating the teams they're supposed to beat so I give them credit for that...and the win against Ohio State was impressive.

I disagree. Honestly, I think our starting 5 can play with pretty much most teams in the country. Yes. The country. I think as you said we have zero depth which is realistically what kills us. Either we put bench players in and they don't score or we leave starters in who then get worn out. But our starting 5 hung with MSU. They beat OSU. They hung around with TA&M. They can compete with 95% of the teams in the country.

I agree with you this 4 game stretch will tell us everything about this team. But if they "sneak" in the tournament and to be honest it wont be sneaking in since they'll earn their way in with this end of season gauntlet, if we're a 11-12 seed look out. Because there's a good chance depending on who that 5/6 seed is that we'd win.