So Twitter closed today at $48.64…

NJPSU

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May 29, 2001
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With Musk’s buyout price at $54 and change, anyone buying at this price would get a double digit return if the deal goes through.

Seems tempting but also telling that the market thinks there’s quite a bit of risk that this deal doesn’t happen.

Hmmm…should I buy more or not. That is the question.
 

LionDeNittany

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May 29, 2001
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DFW, TX
With Musk’s buyout price at $54 and change, anyone buying at this price would get a double digit return if the deal goes through.

Seems tempting but also telling that the market thinks there’s quite a bit of risk that this deal doesn’t happen.

Hmmm…should I buy more or not. That is the question.

I don't know what the breakup fee is currently but the market has showed that twitter is a 30 dollar stock at best right here.

If the market continues to nosedive Musk will back off, pay the breakup and buy it lower if he still wants it.

Additionally, inflation is somewhere between 10 and 20%. At 20% you are flat on this deal.
 

NJPSU

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May 29, 2001
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I am sure you will wait until it's over and then tell us you guessed right.
Don’t hate me because I’m good at this stuff. I gave you guys this trade and I gave you I bonds paying almost 10%. Nobody else on this board is consistently posting such gems.
 

NJPSU

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
43,355
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I don't know what the breakup fee is currently but the market has showed that twitter is a 30 dollar stock at best right here.

If the market continues to nosedive Musk will back off, pay the breakup and buy it lower if he still wants it.

Additionally, inflation is somewhere between 10 and 20%. At 20% you are flat on this deal.
Ha…LionDeNittany downplaying 20% returns in this market. You really are a piece of work.
 

Aardvark86

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Jan 23, 2018
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Don’t hate me because I’m good at this stuff. I gave you guys this trade and I gave you I bonds paying almost 10%. Nobody else on this board is consistently posting such gems.
Wait. You told me the other day that you really do very little short term arbitrage b
 

rumble_lion

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Aug 7, 2011
22,062
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With Musk’s buyout price at $54 and change, anyone buying at this price would get a double digit return if the deal goes through.

Seems tempting but also telling that the market thinks there’s quite a bit of risk that this deal doesn’t happen.

Hmmm…should I buy more or not. That is the question.

Don't bet against Elon.
 

Sullivan

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Nov 24, 2001
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With Musk’s buyout price at $54 and change, anyone buying at this price would get a double digit return if the deal goes through.

Seems tempting but also telling that the market thinks there’s quite a bit of risk that this deal doesn’t happen.

Hmmm…should I buy more or not. That is the question.
Don't bet against Elon.

There is nothing like watching two retards debate.
 
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rumble_lion

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Are you buying shares at this level? Elon is all over Twitter today tweeting like he’s the new owner. Of course he doesn’t control the shareholder vote.

I don't invest in individual companies. But if I did I wouldn't be involved in Twitter stock because I don't use it and don't even really care that much about it.
 
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NJPSU

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May 29, 2001
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I don't invest in individual companies. But if I did I wouldn't be involved in Twitter stock because I don't use it and don't even really care that much about it.
Yes but at this point it’s purely about whether the deal goes through. If it does you make a quick double digit return on your money. If it doesn’t the stock likely drops back into the 30’s. It’s a binary event.
 

rumble_lion

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Aug 7, 2011
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Yes but at this point it’s purely about whether the deal goes through. If it does you make a quick double digit return on your money. If it doesn’t the stock likely drops back into the 30’s. It’s a binary event.

Yeah, I can't really do day trading. My current position does not allow that kind of stuff.
 
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roswelllion

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Aug 18, 2003
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Yes but at this point it’s purely about whether the deal goes through. If it does you make a quick double digit return on your money. If it doesn’t the stock likely drops back into the 30’s. It’s a binary event.
so the market is telling you the deal likely won't go through. On the other hand apparently each side has a 1 billion exit clause if they leave the deal. Pick your poison. I doubt you know more than the markets. I have a better idea. Go find a casino and put your investment on black or red.
 
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NJPSU

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May 29, 2001
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so the market is telling you the deal likely won't go through. On the other hand apparently each side has a 1 billion exit clause if they leave the deal. Pick your poison. I doubt you know more than the markets. I have a better idea. Go find a casino and put your investment on black or red.
No the market isn’t telling you the deal likely won’t go through. If it was, Twitter would be trading much lower than $48. The market is telling you there is some risk that it won’t go through.
 

LionDeNittany

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May 29, 2001
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so the market is telling you the deal likely won't go through. On the other hand apparently each side has a 1 billion exit clause if they leave the deal. Pick your poison. I doubt you know more than the markets. I have a better idea. Go find a casino and put your investment on black or red.

The market is giving you a time value of money.

There are several factors here.

1. Inflation is > 10%. So if this takes 6 months you need to haircut the future value by 5%.

2. This is not a stock investment. It's a short term gain. So it is taxable as a short term gain. Thats 35% off the top.

Take these two out and you end up with reasonable gains.

There is risk, too, of it not closing. But the market implies those are small.

LdN
 
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