so I am in the market for a car and would love an EV or PHEV

Obliviax

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True.

June 28 (Reuters) - Cox Automotive on Tuesday lowered its U.S. auto sales forecast for 2022, as analysts at both Cox and Carmax-owned Edmunds.com said continued supply chain disruptions will leave dealers short of new vehicles for the foreseeable future.​
Cox dropped its full-year forecast to 14.4 million vehicles from 15.3 million, but forecast a slight month-to-month uptick in sales in June.​
There is also some concern about China making chips available in the wake of the Pelosi Taiwan visit.
 
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rumble_lion

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anyone keeping updated on how Lucid is doing? Nice looking car, but hate risking that much money on a new car company.

Not so good. They appear to be having a lot of difficulty building the cars. 6 months ago they forecasted 20,000 cars to be produced in 2022. The first quarter of 2022 was a disaster and they cut the 2022 forecast to 14,000 cars. They just released their 2nd quarter numbers and they have produced less then 2,000 cars in the first half of 2022. They also cut their 2022 forecast to just 6,000 cars. They will have to massively increase production to even hit that number over the next 6 months.

Of course the reduced car sales is leading to massive cash drain. They used up half their cash in the first 6 months of 2022. They will probably need to get additional funding by the end of the year. That may not be that big of an issue as the Saudi's own 60 percent of the company and they could easily pump more cash into them.
 

roswelllion

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agreed...but the point is that the car manufacturers simply can't make enough cars to keep up with demand. That isn't specific to EVs.
The point is the same. The Feds aren't putting incentives on ICE vehicles so I am unclear what your point was/is. The point is there is more demand than supply [EV and ICE]. Putting incentives on something already short in supply will simply result in higher prices which is inflationary. If as Rumble states in another post you want to spur investment in EV's there are much more effective ways.
 

Obliviax

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The point is the same. The Feds aren't putting incentives on ICE vehicles so I am unclear what your point was/is. The point is there is more demand than supply [EV and ICE]. Putting incentives on something already short in supply will simply result in higher prices which is inflationary. If as Rumble states in another post you want to spur investment in EV's there are much more effective ways.
agreed. if you read the article I posted, the qualifications are so egregious that virtually no cars will qualify anyway. the car companies just cannot adjust manufacturing and sourcing that quickly. So it comes down to either a) they don't know what the F they are talking about or b) they know and don't care that the legislation is meaningless (just a show pony).
 
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roswelllion

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agreed. if you read the article I posted, the qualifications are so egregious that virtually no cars will qualify anyway. the car companies just cannot adjust manufacturing and sourcing that quickly. So it comes down to either a) they don't know what the F they are talking about or b) they know and don't care that the legislation is meaningless (just a show pony).
a for sure and likely a and b
 

rumble_lion

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The point is the same. The Feds aren't putting incentives on ICE vehicles so I am unclear what your point was/is. The point is there is more demand than supply [EV and ICE]. Putting incentives on something already short in supply will simply result in higher prices which is inflationary. If as Rumble states in another post you want to spur investment in EV's there are much more effective ways.

It's may be inflationary in a temporary sense. The extra prices charged to consumers is used to expand production faster so that shortages are reduced.
 

Obliviax

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It's may be inflationary in a temporary sense. The extra prices charged to consumers is used to expand production faster so that shortages are reduced.

Everything you need to know about the chip shortage that's plaguing automakers


The chips are tiny transistors made from silicon, which is found in most of the minerals on the earth's surface. They allow computers, smart phones, appliances and other electrical devices to function. Vehicles use chips, too.

Silicon feeds a $500 billion chip industry, according to a report by the BBC. The chips underpin a global tech economy worth an estimated $3 trillion, the report said. The raw materials for the semiconductor business often come from Japan and Mexico, with the chips made in Taiwan, China and some in the U.S.
 

rumble_lion

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Everything you need to know about the chip shortage that's plaguing automakers


The chips are tiny transistors made from silicon, which is found in most of the minerals on the earth's surface. They allow computers, smart phones, appliances and other electrical devices to function. Vehicles use chips, too.

Silicon feeds a $500 billion chip industry, according to a report by the BBC. The chips underpin a global tech economy worth an estimated $3 trillion, the report said. The raw materials for the semiconductor business often come from Japan and Mexico, with the chips made in Taiwan, China and some in the U.S.

From your linked article:

But other countries are working hard to catch up. China is the world’s largest consumer of semiconductors but only a small proportion of the chips it uses are homemade. In 2017, China imported $260bn (¥1,800bn; £210bn) worth, the country’s largest single import.​
China does not currently have the capability to make the latest generation computer chips. They want to. They really, really, really want to.

A closer look at the specifics of the silicon being designed shows China’s reliance on foreign companies.​
Take Alibaba’s new Yitian 710 chip. That is based on architecture from British semiconductor firm Arm. It will also be built upon the so-called 5-nanometer process, the most advanced chip technology at the moment.​
Baidu’s Kunlun 2 chip is based on the 7-nanometer process. Oppo meanwhile is reportedly working on a 3-nanometer chip.​
The country does not have a company capable of manufacturing these leading edge semiconductors at these sizes. They will have to rely on just three companies — Intel from the U.S., TSMC from Taiwan and Samsung in South Korea.​
China’s largest chip manufacturer SMIC is still years behind its companies in terms of manufacturing technology.​
 
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Obliviax

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From your linked article:

But other countries are working hard to catch up. China is the world’s largest consumer of semiconductors but only a small proportion of the chips it uses are homemade. In 2017, China imported $260bn (¥1,800bn; £210bn) worth, the country’s largest single import.​
China does not currently have the capability to make the latest generation computer chips. They want to. They really, really, really want to.

A closer look at the specifics of the silicon being designed shows China’s reliance on foreign companies.​
Take Alibaba’s new Yitian 710 chip. That is based on architecture from British semiconductor firm Arm. It will also be built upon the so-called 5-nanometer process, the most advanced chip technology at the moment.​
Baidu’s Kunlun 2 chip is based on the 7-nanometer process. Oppo meanwhile is reportedly working on a 3-nanometer chip.​
The country does not have a company capable of manufacturing these leading edge semiconductors at these sizes. They will have to rely on just three companies — Intel from the U.S., TSMC from Taiwan and Samsung in South Korea.​
China’s largest chip manufacturer SMIC is still years behind its companies in terms of manufacturing technology.​
and I am "working hard" to go to bed with Anna Bragga. The article I posted, from Detroit's paper, stated it clearly. Today, China and Taiwan at the two big gorillas. That isn't going to change any time soon. Which is exactly as I stated in today's market. I don't care about 2025. Hell, we'll have a republican president by then.
 

rumble_lion

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and I am "working hard" to go to bed with Anna Bragga. The article I posted, from Detroit's paper, stated it clearly. Today, China and Taiwan at the two big gorillas. That isn't going to change any time soon. Which is exactly as I stated in today's market. I don't care about 2025. Hell, we'll have a republican president by then.
On second look China is doing better than I thought, although I'm sure the chips they are currently making are not using the latest circuit size, ie they are making chips user older tech manufacturing machines.

But holy cow I can see why everyone is freaked out about Taiwan getting invaded by China.....


Sl. No Countries Market Share Q4 2021

1 Taiwan 65%
2 South Korea 15%
3 United States 7%
4 China 6%
5 Others 7%
 
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Obliviax

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On second look China is doing better than I thought, although I'm sure the chips they are currently making are not using the latest circuit size, ie they are making chips user older tech manufacturing machines.

But holy cow I can see why everyone is freaked out about Taiwan getting invaded by China.....


Sl. No Countries Market Share Q4 2021

1 Taiwan 65%
2 South Korea 15%
3 United States 7%
4 China 6%
5 Others 7%
I stand on the article I posted since you didn't include a source. and it isn't just "chips" but whatever chips are specific to the car industry.
 

Obliviax

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On "Now This News" a far-left outlet, quoting Detroid Democrat Rep Debbie Stabenow:

Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Michigan Democrat and a leading ally of Detroit automakers, complained that Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a critical Democratic vote, had opposed any tax credits for EV purchases.

“I went round-and-round with Senator Manchin, who frankly didn’t support any credit of any kind, so this is a compromise,” Stabenow told reporters Monday. “We’ll work through it and make this as good as we can for our automakers.”

Manchin, long a holdout Democrat who negotiated terms of the deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, had blocked previous climate and social spending proposals.

Manchin's office declined to comment.

Stabenow asserted that the bill was written by people who don't understand that manufacturers can't simply flip a switch and create a North American supply chain, though they are working on it. Numerous automakers, including General Motors, Ford, Stellantis, Toyota and Hyundai-Kia, have announced plans to build EV battery plants in the United States.


...
“The $7,500 credit might exist on paper," Bozzella ( John Bozzella, CEO of the Alliance of Automotive Innovation) said in a statement, “but no vehicles will qualify for this purchase over the next few years.”
 

BoulderFish

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I believe only their top end models are available currently ($179,000). The entry level and mid level cars will be available for purchase later this year starting at $77k. They have low production capacity, around 700 cars built in the 1st quarter of the year. There will be a long waiting list to buy one. All models just recently had a five figure price increase. They have $5.4B in cash on hand that is expected to get them through 2023. Of course, being a new company there isn’t a reliability record to go off.

I just finished watching the John Delorean documentary on Netflix. I don't know anything about this "Lucid" car/company, but if you adjust the dollar amounts in your post to mid-80's dollars, it sounds just like the Delorean situation.
 

Obliviax

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I just finished watching the John Delorean documentary on Netflix. I don't know anything about this "Lucid" car/company, but if you adjust the dollar amounts in your post to mid-80's dollars, it sounds just like the Delorean situation.
I think we are going to see a lot of this. I know both Apple and Google are working on EVs. And why not? Once you make cars electric there isn't a ton of differentiation. Its like flat-screen TVs. In ten years these cars will be 1/3rd of what they are today. The battery is key. When you get rid of the piston engine and transmission, what do you have left? You have creature comforts and a suspension.

I think the real value of electric cars has yet to be seen. I think EVs will end up being dirt cheap in ten years because there is very little entry level costs compared to gas.
 

rumble_lion

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On "Now This News" a far-left outlet, quoting Detroid Democrat Rep Debbie Stabenow:

Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Michigan Democrat and a leading ally of Detroit automakers, complained that Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a critical Democratic vote, had opposed any tax credits for EV purchases.

“I went round-and-round with Senator Manchin, who frankly didn’t support any credit of any kind, so this is a compromise,” Stabenow told reporters Monday. “We’ll work through it and make this as good as we can for our automakers.”

Manchin, long a holdout Democrat who negotiated terms of the deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, had blocked previous climate and social spending proposals.

Manchin's office declined to comment.

Stabenow asserted that the bill was written by people who don't understand that manufacturers can't simply flip a switch and create a North American supply chain, though they are working on it. Numerous automakers, including General Motors, Ford, Stellantis, Toyota and Hyundai-Kia, have announced plans to build EV battery plants in the United States.


...
“The $7,500 credit might exist on paper," Bozzella ( John Bozzella, CEO of the Alliance of Automotive Innovation) said in a statement, “but no vehicles will qualify for this purchase over the next few years.”

Tesla has been building batteries for their Model 3 and Y cars in Nevada for years. I guess if you ignored electric cars until just recently you may be behind the 8 ball a bit. These companies don't appear to be very forward looking.
 

Obliviax

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Tesla has been building batteries for their Model 3 and Y cars in Nevada for years. I guess if you ignored electric cars until just recently you may be behind the 8 ball a bit. These companies don't appear to be very forward looking.
just a tad it different, dontchathink. do you know who's sold the most EVs? Ford, as a percentage of total.

Good luck finding a Tesla for under $60k new. Model 3 is supposed to be under $50k but you won't find one.
 

rumble_lion

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just a tad it different, dontchathink. do you know who's sold the most EVs? Ford, as a percentage of total.

Good luck finding a Tesla for under $60k new. Model 3 is supposed to be under $50k but you won't find one.


st a tad it different, dontchathink. do you know who's sold the most EVs? Ford, as a percentage of total.

The link you included takes you to site that has EV sales data for 2018. I'm not even sure what point you are trying to make. Ford sells more EV's than Tesla?
 

interrobang

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A buddy bought an EV jeep Friday. Had it towed back to the dealer Monday because it wouldn't start.

Dealer has no idea why
 

Obliviax

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A buddy bought an EV jeep Friday. Had it towed back to the dealer Monday because it wouldn't start.

Dealer has no idea why
I went to pick one up yesterday and found out it didn't have a key feature I wanted. Making another offer today.

The problem is that the desirable new cars are hen's teeth and you have no leverage.

I've done a lot of research on the 4xe. They drive great. The problems are twofold.

  1. there have been some problems when the car switches from electric to gas. It looks like it is rare and being addressed. fingers crossed
  2. the car has a system if the driver keeps driving on electric only (short commute, for example). Every once in a while, the car will simply go all gas until the oil and fluids are heated to a minimum level to keep them from going bad. The problem here is cold weather areas where the car is not garaged. The Jeep never drives far enough to overcome the cold and get to the minimum heat to allow it to go back into EV mode. So your EV ends up being a gas car for several months of the year. This is a big problem in northern USA and Canada.
The good news is that these PHAMs have moved back to being reasonably priced. (at least you can get one for MSRP or a little less) and are on a par with the regular gas jeeps, comparably equipped.
 

Jason1743

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You want leather?
If your point is that this is a bad and overly complicated bill, unfortunately I must agree.
I was in my brother's Tesla this past weekend. The seats are described as vegan leather. No cow was killed for any Tesla.
 
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Obliviax

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If your point is that this is a bad and overly complicated bill, unfortunately I must agree.
I was in my brother's Tesla this past weekend. The seats are described as vegan leather. No cow was killed for any Tesla.
I've read several reports on the tax credit. Basically, I can get a 2022 for about $5k less than brand new. But if I can get the $7500 credit, I am better off buying new to get the credit.

Everything I am reading is that nothing in the new bill will qualify until makers can adjust. Adjust means moving plants from overseas and sourcing battery materials. Neither of these can be accomplished in 18 months unless they are well underway. And, given shortages with materials, even if under way would probably take much longer to accomplish than planned.

I posted an article quoting Democrat from Detroit, Stabenow. She said that the bill was written by people who don't understand can making at all or understand it and don't care.
 
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rumble_lion

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I went to pick one up yesterday and found out it didn't have a key feature I wanted. Making another offer today.

The problem is that the desirable new cars are hen's teeth and you have no leverage.

I've done a lot of research on the 4xe. They drive great. The problems are twofold.

  1. there have been some problems when the car switches from electric to gas. It looks like it is rare and being addressed. fingers crossed
  2. the car has a system if the driver keeps driving on electric only (short commute, for example). Every once in a while, the car will simply go all gas until the oil and fluids are heated to a minimum level to keep them from going bad. The problem here is cold weather areas where the car is not garaged. The Jeep never drives far enough to overcome the cold and get to the minimum heat to allow it to go back into EV mode. So your EV ends up being a gas car for several months of the year. This is a big problem in northern USA and Canada.
The good news is that these PHAMs have moved back to being reasonably priced. (at least you can get one for MSRP or a little less) and are on a par with the regular gas jeeps, comparably equipped.

These problems can all be avoided by just going full electric.
 

rumble_lion

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I think we are going to see a lot of this. I know both Apple and Google are working on EVs. And why not? Once you make cars electric there isn't a ton of differentiation. Its like flat-screen TVs. In ten years these cars will be 1/3rd of what they are today. The battery is key. When you get rid of the piston engine and transmission, what do you have left? You have creature comforts and a suspension.

I think the real value of electric cars has yet to be seen. I think EVs will end up being dirt cheap in ten years because there is very little entry level costs compared to gas.
When you get rid of the piston engine and transmission, what do you have left?

Software will be key.
 
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rumble_lion

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just a tad it different, dontchathink. do you know who's sold the most EVs? Ford, as a percentage of total.

Good luck finding a Tesla for under $60k new. Model 3 is supposed to be under $50k but you won't find one.

just a tad it different, dontchathink. do you know who's sold the most EVs? Ford, as a percentage of total.

Interesting stat.

Actually, we still operate our California factory, which is the largest auto plant in North America, at full capacity and are considering expanding it significantly. It has built 2/3 of all electric vehicles in North America, twice as much as all other carmakers combined.​
 
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jjw165

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More bad news for the EV tax credit.
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade group that represents VW, General Motors Co, Toyota Motor Corp and Ford Motor Co among others, said last week the law would make 70% of 72 U.S. electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel-cell EVs that currently qualify ineligible upon Biden’s signing the law.
On Jan. 1, when the new bill’s additional income and price caps and battery and critical mineral sourcing rules take effect, “none would qualify for the full credit when additional sourcing requirements go into effect,” the group added.
 
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Obliviax

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These problems can all be avoided by just going full electric.
That brings in different problems like long trips and having to stop for an hour to recharge. With a hybrid you just fill up. Plus the current EVs are too small
 

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