So here we are, 7-3 - #14... A top 10 finish to play for... I hope to see you all in Piscat. on Sat

[NittanyLion15]

So as usual, this post is much longer than I had originally anticipated it being, but a work from home day allowed me the distraction and time it took to get my feelings out about where Penn State football currently sits, in the college football world.

So with two games left in the 2018 season, a 7-3 record, and a #14 ranking... Here's my thoughts on the season, can't wait to read some of yours.

First off....

The 1 factor that had everyone maybe a bit more optimistic than what their predictions (if they were honest with themselves) showed, (from what I remember the board consensus was that Penn State would likely lost 2-3 games) but because we were lead by Trace, and had the memories of his heroics in 2016... I think after the losses to OSU and Sparty, the big picture was lossed and blame was thrown around and we became the whiny bitchy fan base of old. Enough of that Sh!t. We are still on track, building towards a Championship year.

The issues that plagued the team this season in our three losses, and in some of our wins) was lack of experience both on the field and in the coaching staff. The botched call at the end of Ohio State still stings... but the momentum swing w/ Sanders fumble in the first half took the air out of the stadium. Michigan State was an odd outing.. Everyone still hurting from the loss to Ohio State, shivering their asses off in the Beav, lack of energy from the crowd that compared to the game before... everything just felt off. We also faced a team who knows how to beat us apparently, and they came into our house with nothing to lose.

So after 16 straight at home we lost back to back home games by a total of 5 points, and the sky is falling. Then an ugly win at Indiana, which really wasn't as ugly as the final score... but given the prior two games... the sky continued to fall. The Win VS Iowa is arguably the best win of the season. #1 Iowa has historically given us trouble when we've had team that were inexperienced. Sue Paterno could tell you all about her husbands struggles with Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes... I can assure you. Instead, the Lions yet again found a way to win... clawed back in the worst weather Happy Valley can offer... (Never falling out of the polls during all of this.. I remember hearing the occasional rumble that Franklin's hot seat had been lit... (Ridiculous)

As I watched trace McSorley, our veteran QB, who's done nothing but represent the University with class emblizing #SuccessWithHonor to perfection ... I about lost my shit when a football buddy of mine had the gall to say McSorley should sit out the rest of this season, the season is shot... let's prepare for 2019.... this is Zack Mills all over again.

The one thing that is similar, is that they both play the game of football with every bit of their heart... they put it all on the field, they don't cast blame, and they probably over exert themselves at times, which puts them in position to get creamed on the field, which lessens their ability to beat teams with the called QB draw. I think Trace was better at avoided the nasty hits than Zack Mills, which is why he's still our QB. (But even still... the loss of talent forced our boy to have to do too much this season, and you're not winning a Natty Title when 1 guy is putting the majority of the weight on his shoulders.) ... (Even in the loss, Trace's performance VS Ohio State this season, should go down as one of the best as a Penn St. QB in program history) I mean C'mon...

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McSorley set a school record with 461 yards of total offense, including a career-high 175 rushing and threw two touchdown passes, and the Nittany Lions (4-1, 1-1) went up 26-14 with 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter on a 1-yard TD plunge by Miles Sanders.

The record-breaking crowd of 110,889 was singing along to ''Sweet Caroline'' and ''Livin' on a Prayer.'' It looked like the Nittany Lions would get another home victory against the Buckeyes (5-0, 2-0) like they did in 2016.

Instead, for the second straight season, Ohio State made a fourth-quarter rally from a double-digit deficit. As far as Penn State coach James Franklin has taken the Nittany Lions in four-plus seasons, he said they can't quite consider themselves an elite program until they start closing out games like this. And he promised to change it.

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.... Preseason from the Orlando Sentinel...

“Trace is a guy that you look all the way back to little league, all he's done is won,” Franklin said during Big Ten Media Days. “Universally respected throughout our entire program, has done things the right way. The thing about Trace that we love so much is that you know what you're getting from Trace every single day, not just on game days, but practice, offseason, community service, academically — he's Steady Eddie.”

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But after all that... here's why I consider 2018 Penn State football to be a success, even with losses to 3 of our "rivals" in the East Division.

#1... the Talent we had to replace this season was insane. With exception of Trace, we pretty much lost every single play maker from the 2016 & 2017 seasons. RB Saquon Barkley, WR DaeSean Hamilton, TE Mike Gesicki, OL Brendan Mahon, DT Curtis Cothran, DT Parker Cothren, LB Manny Bowen, LB Jason Cabinda, DB Christian Campbell, DB Grant Haley, DB Marcus Allen, DB Troy Apke, K Tyler Davis

The easily to exploit weaknesses became obvious when Ohio State realized we lacked depth and leadership on defense. #2, we lost arguably our best offensive player over, in addition to our 2 year sensation Moorehead, who's now making the Millions in the SEC. I still think Rahne is capable but he's still extremely green... we will likely see more botched calls like the horrid draw VS Ohio State this season... I also think we'll see adjustments that only get made after experiencing the aftermath of blowing calls in such situations. (Think the first day of 1979, Sugar Bowl, Alabama, Goal Line, devastation)...

The loss to Sparty, personally was tougher to comprehend then the loss to Brutus two weeks before. The lack of Ricky Slade VS Ohio State and on this season, has been another major hurdle for the Nits this season.... I know it's been stated as injured, but in the back of my mind, the situation has had the "JoePa's doghouse" scenario written all over it. Finally, Sanders inability to hold onto the football is another one key ingredient that has us where we are this season.... but hopefully.. next season, Sanders will look back and remember it, and fix the issues, Rahne will think twice about trying to get too cute for one of the biggest calls he'll make in a season... and the program in general will continue to develop talent so that way when we mysteriously lose guys like Ricky Slade, there's someone right behind him ready to step up. (I think we started to see that a bit VS Iowa and Wisky)

Now onto the the defense... Which was depleted 2017-2018... I mean Penn State finished with a top 20 defense in 2017.. but really the D was the team's weakness last year. The collapse at Ohio State was heartbreaking... but you flip the coin, and it's one of Barrett's best performances as a Buckeye. Sucks to be on the losing end of that, but he was 38-6.. he was bound to have some miracle performances, just ask Michigan. Even though the defense allowed the fewest points since 2011, the years between were all during the sanctions.... Last year's D was solid, but by no means elite... and we lost pretty much the entire unit. The Nittany Lions lost seven of their top eight tacklers from last season. (Hello loss to Ohio State, Scare VS App St, and first have struggles VS Pitt & Illinois)

Long story short, given where we're at.. 3 games left, 7-3 two heartbreaking home losses, 1 road obliteration (to a team that returned the most talent in the B1G this season... we returned the least from 2017-18) ...

Penn State has the opportunity to win out and finish the season ranked in the top 10 for the 3rd consecutive season, also getting to double digit wins in all three years as well. Prior to the start of 2018, I think many on this board thought that if we were able to do that, 2018 would be considered a huge success. (BTW... the last time Penn State finished 3 seasons ranked back to back to back? .... 97, 98, 99. The Last time the Nits finished the season ranked in the top 10 back to back to back? ... 80, 81, 82) I feel like many have jumped off the bandwagon this season, and that's just ridiculous. There's still a LOT to play for, and considering our last two games happen to be against teams where we tend to recruit the majority of our talent.. these last two games are crucial! (as all of them are)....

Most seasons I'd be against having to play the UCF's or the Western Michigan's of the College Football world in a forced "Big 6 matchup, where you're out of it... but not really out of it...) if we can win out, get to 9-3.. somehow find ourselves playing a top ten matchup in the Peach Bowl VS an undefeated UCF... I'd love the opportunity to knock them off their pedestal, giving us a springboard into 2019. Not to mention, I'd really like to see Trace get another win over a top ten team, and a matchup with UCF could be a great way for the Nittany Nation to say goodbye to the best quarterback in Penn State history.

Let's get these last 2 wins in the books.... hope for the best in the bowl selection... and get a 3rd straight top ten finish/10 win season. #WEARE #PENNSTATE!

 

[ShoreLion85]

I'll be there. And now to address PSU football:

We lost to Ohio State. We lost to Michigan. We won't win the Big Ten. All else- including 10 wins, ranking, etc. is window dressing. We failed at the 3 on-field metrics that matter.

But, I have my ticket to the PSU vs Rutgers game, I'll be proudly wearing my PSU regalia, and PSU will win!

 

[bdgan]

I predicted 9-3 from the beginning. I felt good about the offense but was very concerened about losing 8 starters on defense. So what turned out different than my original thinking?

• The WR position has been a mess except for Hamler. Much more was expected from JJ and Thompkins. I also hoped for Shorter to make an impact.
• The OL has once again not lived up to expectations.
• Buchholz & Brown were huge losses.
• OSU, MSU and Wisconsin were also not as good as expected due to injuries.
• We were badly outcoached against OSU, MSU, UM, and IA. We beat Iowa anyway and better coaching wouldn't have been enough to beat Michigan. Still that's 2 avoidable losses.

Even though I predicted 3 losses there is no way to feel good about being outcoached and blowing Q4 leads vs. OSU & MSU.

10-3 would still be a good year but we still need 3 wins for that to happen. I don't think there's much of a chance at a top 10 finish. There are 10 teams ahead of us with 0 or 1 loss. We would need the 1 loss teams to lose at least 2 more games.

 

[OmniscientFan]

I'll be there. And now to address PSU football:

We lost to Ohio State. We lost to Michigan. We won't win the Big Ten. All else- including 10 wins, ranking, etc. is window dressing. We failed at the 3 on-field metrics that matter.

But, I have my ticket to the PSU vs Rutgers game, I'll be proudly wearing my PSU regalia, and PSU will win!

Great post! Feel the exact same way.

 

[KnightWhoSaysNit]

Even though I predicted 3 losses there is no way to feel good about being outcoached and blowing Q4 leads vs. OSU & MSU.

Basically the season can be boiled down to what happened between the end of the OSU game through the MSU game. The MSU game was in my opinion the result of how the staff handled the end of the OSU game, including the PC that immediately followed. No way to reconcile that performance differently given the bye.

So what to expect next year? From a player perspective I believe this team gets better just about everywhere. The unknown is strategy -- preparation and calling the game. Early on I thought preparation would be a Franklin strength. Now it's clear this is entirely up to what Franklin does with the staff. The coming offseason is critically important. Do little and underperformance next year leads to a hit in recruiting, then mediocrity for several years to come. Fix it properly and we soar.

 

[bdgan]

Basically the season can be boiled down to what happened between the end of the OSU game through the MSU game. The MSU game was in my opinion the result of how the staff handled the end of the OSU game, including the PC that immediately followed. No way to reconcile that performance differently given the bye.

So what to expect next year? From a player perspective I believe this team gets better just about everywhere. The unknown is strategy -- preparation and calling the game. Early on I thought preparation would be a Franklin strength. Now it's clear this is entirely up to what Franklin does with the staff. The coming offseason is critically important. Do little and underperformance next year leads to a hit in recruiting, then mediocrity for several years to come. Fix it properly and we soar.

Penn State certainly has a lot of players who are eligible to return. The question is if anybody leaves early. The OL potentially returns everybody but there's not much proven depth so any players leaving early could really hurt. Same with the DL. Not much proven depth there either.

 

[KnightWhoSaysNit]

Penn State certainly has a lot of players who are eligible to return. The question is if anybody leaves early. The OL potentially returns everybody but there's not much proven depth so any players leaving early could really hurt. Same with the DL. Not much proven depth there either.

You are right about the OL but not sure I would agree about DL. That said, part of the big change in "strategy" that is needed has to do with our offense, how we block plays, and how we pick up stunts. That is largely about what Franklin does with the coaching staff.

 

[fastlax16]

I predicted 9-3 from the beginning. I felt good about the offense but was very concerened about losing 8 starters on defense. So what turned out different than my original thinking?

• The WR position has been a mess except for Hamler. Much more was expected from JJ and Thompkins. I also hoped for Shorter to make an impact.
• The OL has once again not lived up to expectations.
• Buchholz & Brown were huge losses.
• OSU, MSU and Wisconsin were also not as good as expected due to injuries.
• We were badly outcoached against OSU, MSU, UM, and IA. We beat Iowa anyway and better coaching wouldn't have been enough to beat Michigan. Still that's 2 avoidable losses.

Even though I predicted 3 losses there is no way to feel good about being outcoached and blowing Q4 leads vs. OSU & MSU.

10-3 would still be a good year but we still need 3 wins for that to happen. I don't think there's much of a chance at a top 10 finish. There are 10 teams ahead of us with 0 or 1 loss. We would need the 1 loss teams to lose at least 2 more games.

This guy gets it.

 

[BiochemPSU]

This season can be summed up pretty simply as PSU has officially cycled out of a championship window. Football is the ultimate team sport, but when you have a guy like Barkley, you need to win it all here and now. Our window closed when Barkley walked out the door.

The good news is that even when PSU is not within a championship window, the staff has recruited well enough that a down year looks like 8-4 or 9-3 and we finish in the top 15 with a quality bowl game. This means we stay relevant, players develop, and some guys get drafted when the season concludes. That ultimately means recruiting stays strong.

Also, because of the increased recruiting, IMO, the time between the next championship window has now decreased significantly. Years ago, Joe could hit a championship window once every four years and then have to start over again. Now we can hit a championship window every 2 or 3 years and possibly go back to back over some stretches, depending on player development and schedules.

 

[JosephNit]

We lost to Ohio State. We lost to Michigan. We won't win the Big Ten. All else- including 10 wins, ranking, etc. is window dressing. We failed at the 3 on-field metrics that matter.

Honestly, I don't think 10 wins and a top-10 ranking is "window dressing" because we lost to the conference's Sacred Cows.

I mean, seriously, would you rather finish 2-10 with wins against Ohio State and Michigan?

Truly, I respect your opinion on this, but personally, I think winning 10 games and finishing in the top-10 for three years in a row is a pretty meaningful "metric."

 

[bdgan]

Years ago, Joe could hit a championship window once every four years and then have to start over again. Now we can hit a championship window every 2 or 3 years and possibly go back to back over some stretches, depending on player development and schedules.

I wonder if that's true. When Joe hit those championship windows he had good teams with a lot of juniors whoe would come back and play as seniors. It seems to me that players leave for the NFL earlier than they did back then. Now it seems like you've got to reload instead of rebuild.

I don't have the stats on that but it's my perception.

 

[Option Bob]

I wonder if that's true. When Joe hit those championship windows he had good teams with a lot of juniors whoe would come back and play as seniors. It seems to me that players leave for the NFL earlier than they did back then. Now it seems like you've got to reload instead of rebuild.

I don't have the stats on that but it's my perception.

I don't keep up with any other team but Penn State, but I think your first point is a good one. Here are some examples to support it:

1968-69 The defense returned all of its All American talent from 1968, and although the offense lost Kwalick and Campbell, it added Lydell and Franco. Losing Kwalick w/o a solid TE or WR to offset him hurt the passing game, but the defense was so stout, it really didn't matter.

1971-73. The '71 squad might have played for a national title had it not imploded at Tennessee. The Vols scored TDs on a fumble return, interception return, and punt return, never having a sustained drive for a TD. The '72 squad has some trouble when Harris & Mitchell left, but the core defense returned. Then in '73 Tom Shuman did a solid job replacing Hufnagel and the defense was once again dominating, and Cappy helped give PSU a title contender.

1977-78 Here again returning defensive stalwarts headed up squad that were of NC caliber. The offense was better in 77, then the defense dominated in 78. A TD called back on a fumble return against Kentucky kept the 77 squad from being 11-0 ... I need not mention the next loss.

1981-82 The '81 team might have actually been a better overall team with a dominating OL led by Munchak and Farrell. But the loss to Miami in the rain and the default defeat to the Bear halted NC chances. But that 81 tram absolutely crushed a great USC team in the Fiesta Bowl. We all know how '82 played out with so many returning stars ... once the OL recovered from losing 3 starters to the NFL.

1985-86 We all know the story of the redshirt guys returning after that loss to Oklahoma.

1993-94 I don't recall what happened in Columbus, but the loss to Michigan was Penn State's welcome to the Big Ten ... the '94 team returned the bulk of the squad and it didn't allow a repeat.

All those NC runs were made with squads built with experienced returning talent laced with a few young studs for good measure.

 

[BiochemPSU]

I wonder if that's true. When Joe hit those championship windows he had good teams with a lot of juniors whoe would come back and play as seniors. It seems to me that players leave for the NFL earlier than they did back then. Now it seems like you've got to reload instead of rebuild.

I don't have the stats on that but it's my perception.

Starting form 2000 through 2010.
Joe:
2000- 5-7
2001- 5-6
2002- 9-4 - lost Capital one bowl; finished 15 in AP and 16 in coaches.
2003- 3-9
2004- 4-7
2005- 11-1 - won orange Bowl over FSU; finished 3rd in AP and in coaches
2006- 9-4 - finished 25 in coaches and 24 in AP.
2007- 9-4 - finished 25 in coaches and unranked in AP.
2008- 11-2 - lost rose bowl to USC; finished 8 in both polls.
2009- 11-2 - won capital one bowl; finished 8 in coaches and 9 in AP.
2010- 7-6

Based on the above, we hit a championship window in 2005 after a five year closed window. That window shut again for two seasons and reopened two years later for back to back years in 2008 and 2009. By 2010 the window had shut again.

CJF:
2014- 7-6
2015- 7-6
2016- 11-3 - lost rose bowl; finished 7 in both polls
2017- 11-2 - won fiesta bowl; finished 8 in both polls
2018- likely 9-3 going into bowl game.

Joe managed to take the 2005 squad and reopen the window two seasons later. Let's see if CJF can do it in one year with the 2019 squad.

 

[PSUFBFAN]

This season can be summed up pretty simply as PSU has officially cycled out of a championship window. Football is the ultimate team sport, but when you have a guy like Barkley, you need to win it all here and now. Our window closed when Barkley walked out the door.

The good news is that even when PSU is not within a championship window, the staff has recruited well enough that a down year looks like 8-4 or 9-3 and we finish in the top 15 with a quality bowl game. This means we stay relevant, players develop, and some guys get drafted when the season concludes. That ultimately means recruiting stays strong.

Also, because of the increased recruiting, IMO, the time between the next championship window has now decreased significantly. Years ago, Joe could hit a championship window once every four years and then have to start over again. Now we can hit a championship window every 2 or 3 years and possibly go back to back over some stretches, depending on player development and schedules.

What a great post!

2016 - I can't think of many teams that were a pedestrian, mediocre .500, team at the end of the first month of the season that exploded over the last 8 weeks of the season that were LEGIT national championship quality like PSU was at the end of 2016. Could PSU have hung with any of the 4 CFP teams that year? Unquestionably.

2017 - everything was in place and that "miss" is going to bother me until they (eventually) get into the CFP. Once in a generation talent on offense and a defense that was going to keep them in every game including the Alabamas and Clemsons of the world. Furthermore, they had every break imaginable in that OSU game - Saquon running the opening kick back for a td, a Buckeye turnover and a short field on the next possession, a couple of officials' calls that went in favor of PSU (including a TD call in the end zone on a pass with simultaneous possession), and of course, the double digit 4th qtr lead. Yet somehow, they managed to choke that game away.

Even with the OSU loss, they were still in solid position to make the CFP by winning out. Of course, that was blown out of the water the following week by losing a game to a team they could have beaten 9 out of 10 times last year.

We could see a window like that again in the next two years, or it might take 10 years. Who knows ... you need talent and luck to get into the final 4 and Alabama seems to have one of those spots locked up as long as Saban is there.

 

[NittanyOpp]

Basically the season can be boiled down to what happened between the end of the OSU game through the MSU game. The MSU game was in my opinion the result of how the staff handled the end of the OSU game, including the PC that immediately followed. No way to reconcile that performance differently given the bye.

So what to expect next year? From a player perspective I believe this team gets better just about everywhere. The unknown is strategy -- preparation and calling the game. Early on I thought preparation would be a Franklin strength. Now it's clear this is entirely up to what Franklin does with the staff. The coming offseason is critically important. Do little and underperformance next year leads to a hit in recruiting, then mediocrity for several years to come. Fix it properly and we soar.

Two straight years of basically same exact thing is concerning.

 

[NittanyOpp]

What a great post!

2016 - I can't think of many teams that were a pedestrian, mediocre .500, team at the end of the first month of the season that exploded over the last 8 weeks of the season that were LEGIT national championship quality like PSU was at the end of 2016. Could PSU have hung with any of the 4 CFP teams that year? Unquestionably.

2017 - everything was in place and that "miss" is going to bother me until they (eventually) get into the CFP. Once in a generation talent on offense and a defense that was going to keep them in every game including the Alabamas and Clemsons of the world. Furthermore, they had every break imaginable in that OSU game - Saquon running the opening kick back for a td, a Buckeye turnover and a short field on the next possession, a couple of officials' calls that went in favor of PSU (including a TD call in the end zone on a pass with simultaneous possession), and of course, the double digit 4th qtr lead. Yet somehow, they managed to choke that game away.

Even with the OSU loss, they were still in solid position to make the CFP by winning out. Of course, that was blown out of the water the following week by losing a game to a team they could have beaten 9 out of 10 times last year.

We could see a window like that again in the next two years, or it might take 10 years. Who knows ... you need talent and luck to get into the final 4 and Alabama seems to have one of those spots locked up as long as Saban is there.

No biggie, if it's not Bama then it's another SEC team. SEC champ will always be in final 4, deserving or not.