Roar's Annual Big Ten Pre-Pre-Seeds

poorwrestler

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Feb 17, 2020
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184
#1 Aaron Brooks (PSU)
#2 Myles Amine (MICH)
#3 Kaleb Romero (tOSU)
#4 Abe Assad (IOWA)
#5 Isaiah Salazar (MINN)
#6 Lane Malczewski (MSU)
#7 Taylor Venz (NEB)
#8 Chris Weiler (WIS)
#9 Zach Braunagel (ILL)
#10 Kyle Cochran (MD)
#11 Donnell Washington (IND)
#12 John Poznanski (RUT)
#13 Max Lyon (PUR)
#14 Jon Halvorson or Jack Jessen (NU)

Standing atop the seeding at 184 after a HTH regular season win vs #2 Amine (MICH) is #1 Brooks (PSU). Amine has a HTH win vs #3 Romero, which is Romero’s only loss. So far, so good. Even my #4 seed (Assad, IOWA) WAS solid until he was pinned by Venz (NEB) in the final dual of the year, so I’m having to rework these seeds too (I also reworked 174).

Sooooo, after re-working a bit, the Venz pin helped Venz more than it hurt Assad, when one considers all other facts. I’m leaving Assad at #4. #5 Salazar (MINN) doesn’t get #4, despite a 4-1 conference record, as his loss is to Lyon (PUR), and his best wins are Braunagel and Weiler. Assad beat both of those guys AND beat Lyon. #6 Malczewski doesn’t move up, as in an unremarkable season he only has decent wins (Cochran, Poznanski, Lyon, all behind him) plus a loss to Washington (IND). #’s 4, 5, and 6 are very close. The Big Ten could move Malczewski in front of Salazar as Salazar wrestled an abbreviated schedule.

What does one do with Venz? A great win against Assad is overshadowed by losses to Lyon and Braunagel, which combined outweigh the win. I’m moving Venz into #7, as he has a HTH win vs my #8, Weiler (WIS). #9 Braunagel (ILL) split his Bit Ten bouts 4-4, beating Venz, and losing HTH to #8 Weiler. At #10 is Cochran (MD). His final bout win, vs Poznanski (RUT) got the Southern Scuffle Champ this seed, as with five conference losses he was heading towards #10 or lower.

Washington lost HTH to Cochran, so he’s #110. The second half of 184 (#’s 8 through 13) are in my opinion the strongest back end of any weight class in the Big Ten. All but my #14 appears to have a shot at making the big dance at the conference tourney! Despite his recent woes, losing his last four conference bouts is #12 Poznanski (RUT). Then it’s #13 Lyon (PUR) before #14 Halvorson/Jessen. Venz and Poznanski have the most surprising resumes, both finishing as AA’s once in their careers.
Salazar beat Malczewski at the scuffle
 

RoarLions1

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Wow Poz seeded #12…. Yeah I’ll place a bet he out performs that seed
Me too. He is 3-4, with four consecutive losses. Best win - Malczewski, but losses to Jordan (tOSU) and Cochran (MD). I could see him one spot higher, but no more than that.
 

tullfan68

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kem looked like he was hurting pretty bad that last match he gonna need some good drugs at bigs!
 

KidDagger

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Me too. He is 3-4, with four consecutive losses. Best win - Malczewski, but losses to Jordan (tOSU) and Cochran (MD). I could see him one spot higher, but no more than that.
Poz had a streak where he lost 4/5 matches.. those losses are to Brooks, MSU guy, R. Jordan(I get he’s backup but he’s no slouch), and Cochran… Poz has wins over Weiler, Branagul, and Washington… seems a bit low to be behind Washington whom he has a h2h win over… thought last year credential would hold a lil weight too guess not too much…

I get he’s been on a slump but seems way too low to be the 12th best guy in big 10s I guess we will find out.
 

nitlion6

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Mar 26, 2012
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Shhh. Not yet. That’s next week, man. We got two weeks to go and need to save content!! That last two weeks of emptiness was brutal.
The two weeks between Bigs and NCAAs are worse. 10 days of how the season is about to fall apart.
 

Random4598375

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Jan 10, 2020
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157
#1 Ryan Deakin (NU)
#2 Will Lewan (MICH)
#3 Kaleb Young (IOWA)
#4 Kendall Coleman (PUR)
#5 Peyton Robb (NEB)
#6 Garrett Model (WIS)
#7 Robert Kanniard (RUT)
#8 Chase Saldate (MSU)
#9 Brady Berge (PSU)
#10 Isaac Wilcox (tOSU)
#11 Joe Roberts (ILL)
#12 Jonathon Kervin (IND)
#13 Conner Decker (MD)
#14 Tim Stapleton (MINN)

#1 Deakin (NU) stands a bit taller in this weight class, as he’s the only undefeated guy left. #2 Lewan (MICH) is my next seed, but there’s not much separating #2 and #3. Lewan lost HTH to Brayton Lee (MINN) this season, as did Young (IOWA). Both beat #5 Robb (NEB). This is as close as it gets when looking at resumes. With no basis, I’ll guess it is #2 Lewan and #3 Young. In the long run, #2 meets #3 in the semis, so if both guys get there, it can be settled in Lincoln and used for seeding purposes at NCAA’s.

Here’s where I’ll add a story that breaks one’s heart. Brayton Lee, Minnesota’s stud at 157 had a serious injury at the Ohio State dual, and will miss the post-season. Lee beat Lewan, Young, Coleman and Robb this season and was heading toward a #2 seed. Injuries stink!

It’s #4 Coleman (PUR) next. In an abbreviated season Coleman has wins over #6 Model and #8 Saldate (MSU). Next is a bit of a cluster. Kanniard (RUT) has a great record but hasn’t wrestled any of the top half. Model handed Kanniard his only loss, but also beat Brayton Lee while losing to Robb (NEB). Robb beat Model, only losing to the top three seeds. Saldate has a decent record, only losing to three of the top five. So, despite the significant differences in records (which should NOT drive the seeds!), it is #5 Robb, #6 Model, #7 Kanniard, #8 Saldate. Just guessing…the Big Ten will have it differently. In fact, these four are close and interchangeable.

There is a significant drop-off to the next six, at least by their records. No one has more than one conference win. But that’s not the story here, Brady Berge is. After wrestling at 165 for what is an abbreviated season, he descended to 157, getting there for the final PSU dual of the season, which was not a Big Ten dual. He has the pedigree, but his record is 0-0 in conference. I honestly can’t place him anywhere but #9, given his situation and the talent behind him. One data point, rough as it is, is that Terrell Barraclough (PSU) beat #10 Wilcox (tOSU) and #13 Decker (MD), and PSU chose Berge over Barraclough. It’s a loose use of the transitive property, but what else is there. Placing the Lion at #13 or #14 seems more silly, so we’ll see. Regardless, to make the NCAA Championships, Berge MUST beat several in front of him.

You can see the remaining five seeds above.
It's hard to seed Berge anywhere with exactly zero conference matches this season, but I think neither Berge nor Deakin would be too happy about Berge being a 9 and meeting in the QF. If the coaches seed just based on who they expect to beat whom and ignore all the matches this season, Berge would probably be at least as high as 6, maybe higher given that he beat #2 Lewan and #3 Young last year. I understand no one is going to just throw out everything that happened during the season when submitting their seeds, but it does potentially create a very unfortunate circumstance.
 

dunkej01

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The two weeks between Bigs and NCAAs are worse. 10 days of how the season is about to fall apart.
the mental stress for JE, Kem and Bull will go through will be an interesting look back. I can see flo or BTN doing a documentary on these guys and this year.

Maybe they can write a book? 14 days and no glory?
 
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Jan 2, 2019
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149
#1 Sammy Sasso (tOSU)
#2 Austin Gomez (WIS)
#3 Ridge Lovett (NEB)
#4 Max Murin (IOWA)
#5 Mike Van Brill (RUT)
#6 Yahya Thomes (NU)
#7 Beau Bartlett (PSU)
#8 Christian Kanzler (ILL)
#9 Graham Rooks (IND)
#10 Kanen Storr (MICH)
#11 Michael North (MD)
#12 Michael Blockus (MINN)
#13 Peyton Omania (MSU)
#14 Trey Kruse or Alec White (PUR)

149 is the third weight class in a row with two quality undefeated guys at the top. #1 Sasso (tOSU) is my call over #2 Gomez (WIS), as he has been the top dog at this weight class and will remain so until beaten. Gomez is a newcomer to the Big Ten, transferring from Iowa State and going up two weight classes. He’s earned his stripes by going undefeated, but it is not enough to overtake Sasso. The next seed was tough as both #3 Lovett (NEB) and #4 Murin (IOWA) have similar resumes, both beating my #6 Thomas (NU) while only losing to Sasso (Murin lost to him) or Gomez (Lovett lost to him). I could see it either way, though I’m giving the nod to Lovett, having wrestled in the Nebraska vs Iowa dual on 2/20, while Murin missed his second Big Ten dual in a row (WIS and NEB). #5 Van Brill slides uncomfortably into the next seed, losing only to Sasso and Gomez, and with #7 Bartlett (PSU) his best win. #6 Thomas gets the next seed, another tenuous one with no good wins, but also no bad losses (Gomez, Murin, Lovett). As said, it’s #7 Bartlett next, as he has a HTH win over #9 Rooks (IND), with #8 Kanzler (ILL) also owning a HTH win vs Rooks. .

What does one do with Storr (MINN)? Injured at the Cliff Keen Invitational (12/3/21), he didn’t wrestle again until 2/6/22, and has only two Big Ten bouts under his belt, a win vs #13 Omania, and a loss to #8 Rooks. I’ll insert him at #10, because, well, I can :). The remaining four seeds can be seen above.

Thomas has a first period F over Kanzler. Is it possible that guys like Blockhus and Omania who are ranked would be seeded behind guys like North and Rooks who are unranked? If so, now I see why guys duck matches, even against higher ranked guys. Why should every loss count the same for B1G seeding? That seems off imo
 
Jan 2, 2019
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Poznanski really is a mystery - 4th last year as a true freshman, starts off 13-0 and now is 3-4 in his last 7 matches. Something has to be up, he's too good a wrestler to suddenly not be a top20 guy.
That happens to new guys in the conference. They're hot until people start taking them seriously and the physical and mental toll gets to them. Then they go through a difficult patch. LOTS of talented, skilled guys get lost in this place tbh.
 

McScoreley

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Blockhus at 12 is interesting, remember he beat Beau pretty handily last year at Big Tens to open things.
 

Random4598375

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Blockhus at 12 is interesting, remember he beat Beau pretty handily last year at Big Tens to open things.
Yeah, my exposure to Blockhus, which is admittedly limited, is that he has looked very good when I've seen him wrestle, so I was surprised to see him so low, but I definitely don't know as much as Roar about this stuff, so I'll defer to him on this.
 
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poorwrestler

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Feb 17, 2020
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Yeah, my exposure to Blockhus, which is admittedly limited, is that he has looked very good when I've seen him wrestle, so I was surprised to see him so low, but I definitely don't know as much as Roar about this stuff, so I'll defer to him on this.
He has had his moments, but really struggles to put together a full match. Took down Sasso to his back, had some great scrambles with Gomez and Lovett, but also got thrown to his back by Illinois kid and couldn’t overcome the 6 point deficit. When he opens up, he scores often, but he just consistently manages to find himself on the losing side of these bouts. He could surprise some at big tens.
 
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RoarLions1

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Blockhus at 12 is interesting, remember he beat Beau pretty handily last year at Big Tens to open things.
An enigma.

5-4 last regular season in B1G's, beating Yahya Thomas along the way. Then going 3-2 at the conference tourney, beating Parriott and Bartlett and Rooks.

This year he's 2-6 in conference, with a 2-point win vs an 0-7 wrestler and one other win against a kid wrestlestat has at #100. None of his losses were horrible, then he lost to Kanzler, who also has a losing B1G record. It wasn't a solid season for the young man.
 
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poorwrestler

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Feb 17, 2020
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An enigma.

5-4 last regular season in B1G's, beating Yahya Thomas along the way. Then going 3-2 at the conference tourney, beating Parriott and Bartlett and Rooks.

This year he's 2-6 in conference, with a 2-point win vs an 0-7 wrestler and one other win against a kid wrestlestat has at #100. None of his losses were horrible, then he lost to Kanzler, who also has a losing B1G record. It wasn't a solid season for the young man.
It hasn’t been a solid season for all gophers not named Steveson. We are having a bad time out here :(
 

McScoreley

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Feb 24, 2019
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#1 Ryan Deakin (NU)
#2 Will Lewan (MICH)
#3 Kaleb Young (IOWA)
#4 Kendall Coleman (PUR)
#5 Peyton Robb (NEB)
#6 Garrett Model (WIS)
#7 Robert Kanniard (RUT)
#8 Chase Saldate (MSU)
#9 Brady Berge (PSU)
#10 Isaac Wilcox (tOSU)
#11 Joe Roberts (ILL)
#12 Jonathon Kervin (IND)
#13 Conner Decker (MD)
#14 Tim Stapleton (MINN)
Using those seeds, here is what we're looking at for Brady.

Let's say matches play out by seed except for Brady, let's say he beats Saldate then loses to Deakin.

He would then have 7/10 loser so winnable match against Kanniard likely then he would likely have (4/5 loser) Coleman or Robb. Win that and he's in. Lose that and he's out if Model doesn't allocate a spot.
 

82bordeaux

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It hasn’t been a solid season for all gophers not named Steveson. We are having a bad time out here :(
giphy.gif
 

Thenightking

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Sep 7, 2019
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When will the actual pre-seeds be out?I love Roar's preseeds but am anxious to see how they try to screw us with the actual pre-seeds.
 

sunshinedynomite

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Dec 1, 2014
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Here is what i see happening at Bigs

125 2
133 1 or 2
141 1 or 2
149 6
157 4
165 No clue
174 1 or 3
184 1
197 1
285 depending on seeding 2 or 3
 
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CJFisJoePaII

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Berge can't take down if he wrestlers him..

Wow, that was some incredible "riding skill" exhibited by Deakin there (never once broke Nolf down and accumulated the vast majority of his "riding time" by doing absolutely nothing except hanging onto Nolf in a standing position - never attempting to "improve his position" and work towards scoring from top) - he definitely deserved to be awarded a point for that bullshit.... LMAO
 

CJFisJoePaII

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I am not saying it was a good ride I am just saying if you can stall ride 2:00 with Nolf Berge shouldn’t take down

No, I understood what you were saying and don't disagree with you. Just pointing out that this continual "stall ride" was not significantly different than what we see rewarded on a regular basis - there is no wrestling skill being exhibited here that is worthy of rewarding.
 

a_mshaffer

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Wow, that was some incredible "riding skill" exhibited by Deakin there (never once broke Nolf down and accumulated the vast majority of his "riding time" by doing absolutely nothing except hanging onto Nolf in a standing position - never attempting to "improve his position" and work towards scoring from top) - he definitely deserved to be awarded a point for that bullshit.... LMAO
well if it is that easy everyone would do it. No one else could keep Jason from escaping.
 

creamery freak

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Deakin knew if Jason escaped he was probably going to be taken down a few more times. Hence his desire to ride in anyway he could. Agree, tough to do that to Jason Nolf.
 
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RoarLions1

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Of course it is all of our hopes that Edsell earns one of the seven spots allocated to the Big Ten. To do so means defeating a Fish, Wilson, Lohrey, Braunagel-level wrestler along the way at Big Ten's. If that doesn't happen, here's a few thoughts;

Imo Edsell must win two matches at the Big Ten Championship to finish one spot out of seventh if he doesn't earn an NCAA berth outright. That would give him a decent RPI, which he doesn't have right now at 13 bouts.

Then we must hope that none of these guys lose in their conference tournament, as all will be ahead in at-large criteria: Bullard, Wentzel, McCoy, O'Toole, Weber, Yant, Hall, Marinelli, Amine, Kharchla, Hamiti, Hartman, Ogunsanya, Ramirez, Conigliaro, Smucker. Olejnik, Valencia, Wick, Formato. That's 20 wrestlers.

Then we look at the guys that can help by earning a spot at NCAA's. This list includes; Barczak, Meyer, Revano, Eyler and Mosley. These guys would be in competition with Edsell for at-large, and if they make it on their own, can be removed from the equation, even though right now the criteria may favor Edsell when compared to several of these guys (read below).

The last two paragraphs are the unknowns, so we'll just have to see. A couple other points. Fish (MSU) didn't earn an allocation spot for the conference, so he's one of the guys looking for an outright AQ spot or at-large later. Wittlake (OSU) didn't earn his conference an AQ spot, so stealing one from a guy that did will amount to a nearly sure at-large spot for the Big-12.


To recap;
-- winning the spot outright is the best scenario
-- going 0-2 or 1-2 is unlikely to end with an at-large spot
-- Going 2-2 and placing 8th gives a better than 50-50 shot, as I like him (right now) over Barczak, Revano, Eyler and Mosley if they are in the picture for at-large.
 

rmg78

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Feb 22, 2017
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So, pre-seeds will come out tomorrow or Tuesday, question for the more knowledgeable folks...has there been any major instances in the last 4 or so years in which the pre-seeds changed by tournament time?
 

tomsc

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Nov 2, 2014
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Wow, that was some incredible "riding skill" exhibited by Deakin there (never once broke Nolf down and accumulated the vast majority of his "riding time" by doing absolutely nothing except hanging onto Nolf in a standing position - never attempting to "improve his position" and work towards scoring from top) - he definitely deserved to be awarded a point for that bullshit.... LMAO
Yeah, Deakin can say he rode Nolf out a period. But in doing so he gave up 3 points (2 stalling calls and 1 point for locking hands). Score-wise he would have done better to release Jason (but then Jason would have gotten more TD's--so it was a pick your poison for Deakin!).
 
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