Revised season predictions

[Online Persona]

I don't understand all this respect for Michigan State and Minnesota by some of these posters. Anything less than 10-2 would be a major disappointment. Don't these people ever follow the recruiting rankings every year? Don't they realize who has more players currently in the NFL? A bigger talent gap exists with the Michigan State and Minnesota personnel in comparison to Penn State, than Penn State's talent shortage in comparison to Ohio State and Michigan. I think Penn State is more likely to upset Ohio State or Michigan than they are of losing at home to anybody else in the Big 10. Michigan State and Minny are at home. They are only going to lose to them if they suffer several key injuries.

According to the 2022 team composite talent Penn St is 153 points behind Ohio St and only 136 ahead of Sparty but 180 ahead of Minnesota (who is behind Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, and northwestern as well). Michigan is 17 points higher than PSU if you were wondering.

But Ohio St is so far ahead in terms of team talent composite that they really should never lose a conference game or really a game to anyone not named Alabama or Georgia which should be coin flips. Ohio St has definitely underperformed with their talent as of late. Ohio St has nearly 50% more 5 stars on their roster than the entire big 10 combined.

 

[The Spin Meister]

Agreed...it's not so cut and dry like the poster wrote. The only way we lose to teams without as much talent are injuries? It just doesn't work that way. MSU has a handful of wins over PSU, Michigan, etc., over several years. Minny beat us in 2019. Anyone on the schedule, especially B1G opponents, can beat you if you aren't careful. While we may scoff at NW in two weeks, they can run the rock very well. You just never know in CFB, where one bad quarter can spell doom. This team is not a polished or close to a finished product, so only time will tell before we can start if not guaranteeing, but at least being supremely confident against teams that have beaten us before.

Excellent post, Bartelby. Any football game can produce major surprises.

MSU seems to have serious problems but Minny is a potential problem. Especially since their OC was treated pretty poorly here and will want revenge. Gonna be an emotional day....at night, under the lights, White Out.

And isn’t it Homecoming too? Have seen Homecoming listed yet.

 

[RickinDayton]

No one has mentioned the two coordinators as key to the season. Yurcich in his second year, first without all the Covid drama, has gotten his offense installed. No or little RPO, backs lining up deep, quick handoffs at speed, Clifford in a system that fits him better.

Perhaps the best part is that offense is so much better prepared. No burning timeouts too early because of confusion. No trying to set the backs in the proper lineup and then having to rush the snap. Very few missed blocking assignments leading to tackles for loss just as the back gets the handoff.

The D is far more aggressive under Diaz. Really putting on the pressure. Being aggressive on turnovers. Great speed on the ends.

And it is early in the process, especially for the D. As the coaches learn the kids, as the kids learn the system, as they mature together, this could be a special year. Couple more games before the meat of the schedule to fine tune things. By mid season could be quite the juggernaut.

Better yet, it may be just the start of a great run. Should be playoff contenders the next couple years. And that should boost recruiting even more.

Hard not to get excited about the future.

Key replacement component for next year is to get a game ready replacement for Mustipher. Might have to reach into the portal for a "war daddy".
Going forward this year, the real test for this team will be the three game stretch in October. Will they continue to improve and peak as the season progresses? I think the increased depth will help.

 

[BJA1]

11-1

 

[lazydave841]

MSU seems to have serious problems

They still can't defend the pass very well. That's issue 1.

2, no Kenneth Walker at RB. They brought 2 backs in, but neither are 1/2 as good as Walker yet.

3, best WR got hurt. Freak cut in practice or something.

You roll the dice with all those portal players. It worked turning a 2-5 team into a 11-2 squad. I, personally, Don't think you make that gamble again outside of a few players. The DE Windmon looks like a steal, for example.

Still, 9 games to go. They can make some noise. It's tougher playing with the target on your back vs the underdog mentality.

 

[brupsu]

Pump the brakes on Minnesota until they play some body with a pulse. At Sparty this Saturday then Purdue at home. If they're still unbeaten then it's a concern...but remember this: 2019. That one was away. This one is not only at home but it's a White Out. And before you bring up Illinois last year and concern about stopping the run, let's try to recall yesterday at Jordan Hare, then let's remember that last year we didn't have PJ, or Carter, or Beamon. I expect to beat Minnesota.

To me it's 2 games and 1-1 is the goal. Michigan and Ohio State.

Heck no 2 and 0 is the goal

 

[cp4psu]

I originally thought 9-3 if we beat both Purdue and Auburn, or 8-4 if we lost one of those games. But now I think most people would be disappointed with 3 losses. So what's your current prediction?

PSU has done what it had to so far and there's a lot of excitement after yesterday's win. But how good is Auburn? They struggled to beat San Jose who barely beat Portland.

I'll say 10-2 but it won't be easy. CMU & NW should be wins and get us to 5-0. But remember we were 5-0 last year too. Hopefully this year we have a deeper bench to help us cope with injuries.

@ Michigan we will be underdogs
Minnesota has been dominant
OSU will be underdogs
IND, MD, & RUT are all 3-0
Michigan State will be tough

I think PSU has a chance to win every game but it's a tough schedule. I'm still concerned about our LBs stopping the run. They did well yesterday with help from the DBs but that is more doable when the opposing QB can't take advantage.

Michigan has played absolutely no one not buying in this year. I can think of at least 3 high school teams in Pittsburgh that would have given them more of a game than Colorodo st, Hawaii, and UConn!!!

 

[Wallace Breen]

Michigan has played absolutely no one not buying in this year. I can think of at least 3 high school teams in Pittsburgh that would have given them more of a game than Colorodo st, Hawaii, and UConn!!!

We need to take a break from this type of stuff. Michigan hasn't played anyone. This is a true statemen. By that logic, neither have we. We beat Auburn who hasn't played anyone and struggled with mighty San Jose State. Last year they lose to every team they played with a pulse. Purdue lost several NFL players is currently 1 and 2 losing to us and Syracuse who hasn't played anyone and heading towards a 5 and 7 record really fast. Right now our wins are against Power 5 teams that don't appear to be very good, and both look like they could be pretty bad. That is reality. Hopefully we are as good as we look but the, "they haven't played anyone" bit doesn't work until late October.

 

[Parkerdam555]

We need to take a break from this type of stuff. Michigan hasn't played anyone. This is a true statemen. By that logic, neither have we. We beat Auburn who hasn't played anyone and struggled with mighty San Jose State. Last year they lose to every team they played with a pulse. Purdue lost several NFL players is currently 1 and 2 losing to us and Syracuse who hasn't played anyone and heading towards a 5 and 7 record really fast. Right now our wins are against Power 5 teams that don't appear to be very good, and both look like they could be pretty bad. That is reality. Hopefully we are as good as we look but the, "they haven't played anyone" bit doesn't work until late October.

Purdue is far better than 1-2. If it weren't for a horrible meltdown by the tight end, then an equally awful p.i. call, they are 2-1. Auburn is at best an 8-4 SEC team and at worst a 6-6 sec team. Penn State is the only team in the Nation with 2 road wins over power 5 schools. So, no, the "same" does not apply.

 

[Wallace Breen]

Purdue is far better than 1-2. If it weren't for a horrible meltdown by the tight end, then an equally awful p.i. call, they are 2-1. Auburn is at best an 8-4 SEC team and at worst a 6-6 sec team. Penn State is the only team in the Nation with 2 road wins over power 5 schools. So, no, the "same" does not apply.

You can think that if you want be we are as untested as Michigan at this point. If Auburn doesn't beat Mizzou on Saturday, they are probably going to 2 and 8 going into Western Kentucky and finishing 3 and 9.

 

[AWS1022]

You can think that if you want be we are as untested as Michigan at this point. If Auburn doesn't beat Mizzou on Saturday, they are probably going to 2 and 8 going into Western Kentucky and finishing 3 and 9.

Laughable…2 P5 wins is better than 0 P5 wins, no matter how much you want to deny it.

 

[marshall23]

Laughable…2 P5 wins is better than 0 P5 wins, no matter how much you want to deny it.

See you subtract the best wins and that's your real record.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

Laughable…2 P5 wins is better than 0 P5 wins, no matter how much you want to deny it.

Hence the reason that PSU is the only team in the Country with 2 road wins against P5 teams, but don't talk facts with trolls - facts are anathema to them and they'll just create their own made up bs facts.

 

[ram2020]

Tough start to the season for penn state and they have handled it aplomb. Its okay to be proud of the achievement thus far. In fact, they couldn't be better than 3-0.

 

[marshall23]

Tough start to the season for penn state and they have handled it aplomb. Its okay to be proud of the achievement thus far. In fact, they couldn't be better than 3-0.

A painful start for the NNNNNCAC.

 

[lazydave841]

Ahh, good ol Wally in here with the analysis we were missing.

Nobody said Michigan had to start with the teams they did. We absolutely know more about our team than they do.

Will it matter on the 15th of October? It may not mean anything if they shut us down and blow the doors off us.

As it stands, we have faced an SEC opponent with good recruiting and no star QB, and a senior laden Big 10 West team that's lost late twice and still might be the favorite to win the West. That's 10x more than any Michigan opponent yet.

Of course, Michigan's schedule gets better over the next 4 weeks. Maryland is 3-0, but could be 3-3 in short order. Iowa is 2-1 but they have no prayer of winning unless its a 9-7 type struggle ans they too look headed for 3-3. Indiana is 3-0, but they face Cincinnati this week. Should be no worse than 4-1 before their season potentially hits a tailspin.

 

[marshall23]

Ahh, good ol Wally in here with the analysis we were missing.

Nobody said Michigan had to start with the teams they did. We absolutely know more about our team than they do.

Will it matter on the 15th of October? It may not mean anything if they shut us down and blow the doors off us.

As it stands, we have faced an SEC opponent with good recruiting and no star QB, and a senior laden Big 10 West team that's lost late twice and still might be the favorite to win the West. That's 10x more than any Michigan opponent yet.

Of course, Michigan's schedule gets better over the next 4 weeks. Maryland is 3-0, but could be 3-3 in short order. Iowa is 2-1 but they have no prayer of winning unless its a 9-7 type struggle ans they too look headed for 3-3. Indiana is 3-0, but they face Cincinnati this week. Should be no worse than 4-1 before their season potentially hits a tailspin.

The Franklin haters handbook:
1. Purdue will beat us.....they beat teams that defeated us last year.
Result: PSU wins
2. We were fortunate to win....that game could have gone either way....
Result #2: PSU wins
3. All PSU did was exactly what they should have done.
4. PSU doesn't match up well vs a physical Auburn squad....square pegs.....round holes.....hostile environment etc.
Result#3 a blowout win that NO ONE PREDICTED
5. This is right where we thought PSU would be at this point. Recruiting metrics won all these games and when coaching matters we are doomed.
and on and on it goes.......
and finally....the only reason the team looks a bit better so far is that Franklin is letting his coordinators coach.....or he's finally implemented the changes we've suggested for years!