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Revised season predictions

bdgan

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May 29, 2008
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I originally thought 9-3 if we beat both Purdue and Auburn, or 8-4 if we lost one of those games. But now I think most people would be disappointed with 3 losses. So what's your current prediction?

PSU has done what it had to so far and there's a lot of excitement after yesterday's win. But how good is Auburn? They struggled to beat San Jose who barely beat Portland.

I'll say 10-2 but it won't be easy. CMU & NW should be wins and get us to 5-0. But remember we were 5-0 last year too. Hopefully this year we have a deeper bench to help us cope with injuries.

@ Michigan we will be underdogs
Minnesota has been dominant
OSU will be underdogs
IND, MD, & RUT are all 3-0
Michigan State will be tough

I think PSU has a chance to win every game but it's a tough schedule. I'm still concerned about our LBs stopping the run. They did well yesterday with help from the DBs but that is more doable when the opposing QB can't take advantage.
 
At Michigan, home against Minnesota, home against Ohio State is a tough three week stretch. Spaced out differently, I might expect to win two of those. I think I’ll be happy winning one and going 10-2.

I do think the potential is there to be better than 10-2, though. I remain convinced that if Clifford didn’t get hurt at Iowa OR if Levis had stayed (and came in when Clifford got hurt) they win 10 last year. This year, we seem to have a backup QB if Clifford goes down and the running game is light years better.
 
We have to be careful about recency bias after witnessing one of the most dominating Penn State road wins ever. This is a really good team that is getting better, but a 3-loss season is still the smart bet at this point.

I'd say that the disaster 0.500 season is now highly unlikely, and a special season, including a conference championship, is on the table. Before the Auburn game, the disaster season was still in play and no one thought this team would realistically be a contender.
 
I still like 9-3. I thought that was our ceiling this year and I still do, mostly because of how grueling this schedule is. 9-3 would be a great year in my mind to launch the program forward next year with this young talent. I think a bowl win would be great too.
 
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I originally thought 9-3 if we beat both Purdue and Auburn, or 8-4 if we lost one of those games. But now I think most people would be disappointed with 3 losses. So what's your current prediction?

PSU has done what it had to so far and there's a lot of excitement after yesterday's win. But how good is Auburn? They struggled to beat San Jose who barely beat Portland.

I'll say 10-2 but it won't be easy. CMU & NW should be wins and get us to 5-0. But remember we were 5-0 last year too. Hopefully this year we have a deeper bench to help us cope with injuries.

@ Michigan we will be underdogs
Minnesota has been dominant
OSU will be underdogs
IND, MD, & RUT are all 3-0
Michigan State will be tough

I think PSU has a chance to win every game but it's a tough schedule. I'm still concerned about our LBs stopping the run. They did well yesterday with help from the DBs but that is more doable when the opposing QB can't take advantage.
Football predictions are treacherous. I would think last season should stand as exhibit #1.
In addition to the very real possibility of a rash of key injuries....early season victories can diminish in significance when time reveals that an opponent turned out to be weaker than forecast.
Take OSU's victory over Notre Dame.....not so monumental in the afterglow.
For my money PSU is playing much better than I had anticipated.
I have no idea how that translates after week 5.
 
I originally thought 9-3 if we beat both Purdue and Auburn, or 8-4 if we lost one of those games. But now I think most people would be disappointed with 3 losses. So what's your current prediction?

PSU has done what it had to so far and there's a lot of excitement after yesterday's win. But how good is Auburn? They struggled to beat San Jose who barely beat Portland.

I'll say 10-2 but it won't be easy. CMU & NW should be wins and get us to 5-0. But remember we were 5-0 last year too. Hopefully this year we have a deeper bench to help us cope with injuries.

@ Michigan we will be underdogs
Minnesota has been dominant
OSU will be underdogs
IND, MD, & RUT are all 3-0
Michigan State will be tough

I think PSU has a chance to win every game but it's a tough schedule. I'm still concerned about our LBs stopping the run. They did well yesterday with help from the DBs but that is more doable when the opposing QB can't take advantage.
9-3 to 12-0, I think it’ll be a good season at a minimum to great. I just don’t know how good they are so I have zero expectations and just hope to enjoy the games.
I was happy with the line blocking for the first time in awhile .
 
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I think we go 1-1 vs Michigan and OSU and lay an egg against a lesser opponent. 10-2. Next year is looking like a real playoff run.
 
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Have to give credit to the coaches for everything and the players for executing a dominant win. A win with a lot of positives but with things they can improve on with work .
They’re in a solid position.
 
Very good win yesterday. The story of the day was the turnovers. The line demonstrated incremental progress from week one and Singleton made them good when they were able to successfully execute a couple of the more complicated blocking designs. They nailed one last week leading to a long Singleton run and hit a couple yesterday. The scene from the stands was impressive in terms the amount of Penn Staters that traveled. Overall, the win was impressive but Auburn is also a train wreck and lacked the QB play to make the defense pay. Going in, I had us at 9 and 3 for a reasonable best case and 5 and 7 as a reasonable worst case. Right now, I am thinking 8 and 4 looks pretty realistic and with luck we could get to 9 and 3.
 
Lots of young talent and we haven't even seen guys like Sutton. Lots potentially returning too. The only big losses on offense are Clifford and Tinsley. A couple of DBs, Sutherland, and Mustipher on defense. A lot depends on who we lose and who we pick up in the portal.

Starting QB is not going to be a net loss. Depth at the position could become a big concern, but that's it.
 
I'm going 2 or 3 losses as most probable. 1 or 4 seem possible as well to me.

That @Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio St stretch is brutal for a couple of reasons. All 3 could beat us and all 3 could beat us up.

Having to go to Michigan and play at their house with their refs is going to make it that much more challenging.

I'm not convinced on Minnesota bludgeoning the sisters of the poor yet (I guess you can say the same for Michigan). But AFTER Michigan presents problems in terms of emotional let down. I think this was a wise choice for the white out for that reason since Ohio St was not a choice. Perhaps that is enough to prevent the letdown. Minnesota does have Michigan St, Purdue, and Illinois leading into our game and one of those could clip them.

The good thing is that Ohio St also has Michigan St (then bye) and Iowa before us. So maybe they get beat up a bit as well. Don't expect either of those teams to truly threaten them but they do play physical style games that could help wear Ohio St down a bit.
 
Two things. Will the current press coverage and blitzing be effective against the better teams in the BiG. Second, PSU success goes hand in hand with QB play.
 
I originally thought 9-3 if we beat both Purdue and Auburn, or 8-4 if we lost one of those games. But now I think most people would be disappointed with 3 losses. So what's your current prediction?

PSU has done what it had to so far and there's a lot of excitement after yesterday's win. But how good is Auburn? They struggled to beat San Jose who barely beat Portland.

I'll say 10-2 but it won't be easy. CMU & NW should be wins and get us to 5-0. But remember we were 5-0 last year too. Hopefully this year we have a deeper bench to help us cope with injuries.

@ Michigan we will be underdogs
Minnesota has been dominant
OSU will be underdogs
IND, MD, & RUT are all 3-0
Michigan State will be tough

I think PSU has a chance to win every game but it's a tough schedule. I'm still concerned about our LBs stopping the run. They did well yesterday with help from the DBs but that is more doable when the opposing QB can't take advantage.

3 or 4 losses is still likely. Ind and Rutgers look average/beatable. Michigan state will play us tough and they had a nice comeback vs. UW, who is underrated. Minn. will be tough. We will likely lose to Mich and OSU, who are the cream of the crop in the big ten this year.
 
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I originally thought 9-3 if we beat both Purdue and Auburn, or 8-4 if we lost one of those games. But now I think most people would be disappointed with 3 losses. So what's your current prediction?

PSU has done what it had to so far and there's a lot of excitement after yesterday's win. But how good is Auburn? They struggled to beat San Jose who barely beat Portland.

I'll say 10-2 but it won't be easy. CMU & NW should be wins and get us to 5-0. But remember we were 5-0 last year too. Hopefully this year we have a deeper bench to help us cope with injuries.

@ Michigan we will be underdogs
Minnesota has been dominant
OSU will be underdogs
IND, MD, & RUT are all 3-0
Michigan State will be tough

I think PSU has a chance to win every game but it's a tough schedule. I'm still concerned about our LBs stopping the run. They did well yesterday with help from the DBs but that is more doable when the opposing QB can't take advantage.
With no major injuries, I always thought 10 wins were a reasonable number for this team…. And still do. — The difference now is : I believe they are capable of beating anyone on the schedule (yes, OSU and/or Michigan). I don’t think it will likely occur, but I also will not be shocked if it does. This team has high end athletes, and they are very good. ( and, oh by the way, the coaching appears very good as well)
 
With no major injuries, I always thought 10 wins were a reasonable number for this team…. And still do. — The difference now is : I believe they are capable of beating anyone on the schedule (yes, OSU and/or Michigan). I don’t think it will likely occur, but I also will not be shocked if it does. This team has high end athletes, and they are very good. ( and, oh by the way, the coaching appears very good as well)
I thought the missing pieces were the OL and LBs. The OL seemed much improved vs Auburn. Let's see if that continues. I'm still concerned about the LBs but Carter looks good for a true freshman. We'll see.
 
At Michigan, home against Minnesota, home against Ohio State is a tough three week stretch. Spaced out differently, I might expect to win two of those. I think I’ll be happy winning one and going 10-2.

I do think the potential is there to be better than 10-2, though. I remain convinced that if Clifford didn’t get hurt at Iowa OR if Levis had stayed (and came in when Clifford got hurt) they win 10 last year. This year, we seem to have a backup QB if Clifford goes down and the running game is light years better.
Pump the brakes on Minnesota until they play some body with a pulse. At Sparty this Saturday then Purdue at home. If they're still unbeaten then it's a concern...but remember this: 2019. That one was away. This one is not only at home but it's a White Out. And before you bring up Illinois last year and concern about stopping the run, let's try to recall yesterday at Jordan Hare, then let's remember that last year we didn't have PJ, or Carter, or Beamon. I expect to beat Minnesota.

To me it's 2 games and 1-1 is the goal. Michigan and Ohio State.
 
I originally thought 9-3 if we beat both Purdue and Auburn, or 8-4 if we lost one of those games. But now I think most people would be disappointed with 3 losses. So what's your current prediction?

PSU has done what it had to so far and there's a lot of excitement after yesterday's win. But how good is Auburn? They struggled to beat San Jose who barely beat Portland.

I'll say 10-2 but it won't be easy. CMU & NW should be wins and get us to 5-0. But remember we were 5-0 last year too. Hopefully this year we have a deeper bench to help us cope with injuries.

@ Michigan we will be underdogs
Minnesota has been dominant
OSU will be underdogs
IND, MD, & RUT are all 3-0
Michigan State will be tough

I think PSU has a chance to win every game but it's a tough schedule. I'm still concerned about our LBs stopping the run. They did well yesterday with help from the DBs but that is more doable when the opposing QB can't take advantage.
The B1G seems fairly weak this year. Without major injuries, 10-2 seems likely, with or w/o a win in Ann Arbor. If Clifford gets hurt, it won't be as bad as last year with Allar and the RBs, but all bets are off.
 
I thought the missing pieces were the OL and LBs. The OL seemed much improved vs Auburn. Let's see if that continues. I'm still concerned about the LBs but Carter looks good for a true freshman. We'll see.
Yes, the OL seems to be improving weekly. Even a slight (weekly) trajectory upward is a very good thing for this talented team. I am much less concerned with LB right now after seeing the utilization and performance of the 1st and 2nd year players…. They are serious athletes, and seem to be used as almost hybrid “hero” or “Lion” type players with much movement, coverage, and blitzing. Carter Is special. Plays (so far) like he deserves number 11
 
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The B1G seems fairly weak this year. Without major injuries, 10-2 seems likely, with or w/o a win in Ann Arbor. If Clifford gets hurt, it won't be as bad as last year with Allar and the RBs, but all bets are off.
The comparisons to last year need to end. As of today. There are at least a dozen factors this year that do not apply to last year.
 
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Franklin going to get skewered if he drops osu or Michigan despite expectations coming in that he’d lose both.
 
I think fans would be elated if we beat OSU but lost to Michigan.
After the fact yea sure. He’s still going to get skewered if he drops Michigan in the moment since that game comes first.
 
No one has mentioned the two coordinators as key to the season. Yurcich in his second year, first without all the Covid drama, has gotten his offense installed. No or little RPO, backs lining up deep, quick handoffs at speed, Clifford in a system that fits him better.

Perhaps the best part is that offense is so much better prepared. No burning timeouts too early because of confusion. No trying to set the backs in the proper lineup and then having to rush the snap. Very few missed blocking assignments leading to tackles for loss just as the back gets the handoff.

The D is far more aggressive under Diaz. Really putting on the pressure. Being aggressive on turnovers. Great speed on the ends.

And it is early in the process, especially for the D. As the coaches learn the kids, as the kids learn the system, as they mature together, this could be a special year. Couple more games before the meat of the schedule to fine tune things. By mid season could be quite the juggernaut.

Better yet, it may be just the start of a great run. Should be playoff contenders the next couple years. And that should boost recruiting even more.

Hard not to get excited about the future.
 
After the fact yea sure. He’s still going to get skewered if he drops Michigan in the moment since that game comes first.
I think it depends how the game plays out. He'll get skewered if we lose close and there were questionable play calls and poor clock management. Or even if like last year when we lost on a big play due to broken coverage.

At least we've beaten Michigan in the past few years. The fans are fed up with losing to OSU, especially when blowing big 4th qtr leads.
 
No one has mentioned the two coordinators as key to the season. Yurcich in his second year, first without all the Covid drama, has gotten his offense installed. No or little RPO, backs lining up deep, quick handoffs at speed, Clifford in a system that fits him better.

Perhaps the best part is that offense is so much better prepared. No burning timeouts too early because of confusion. No trying to set the backs in the proper lineup and then having to rush the snap. Very few missed blocking assignments leading to tackles for loss just as the back gets the handoff.

The D is far more aggressive under Diaz. Really putting on the pressure. Being aggressive on turnovers. Great speed on the ends.

And it is early in the process, especially for the D. As the coaches learn the kids, as the kids learn the system, as they mature together, this could be a special year. Couple more games before the meat of the schedule to fine tune things. By mid season could be quite the juggernaut.

Better yet, it may be just the start of a great run. Should be playoff contenders the next couple years. And that should boost recruiting even more.

Hard not to get excited about the future.
Pry also had an aggressive defense. Sometimes too aggressive for my taste. I'm all for keeping opponents guessing where the pressure is coming from but it comes at a risk. If the blitz gets there it's great. If not we're at risk of giving up a big play.

Pry's blitz often didn't get there. Maybe we've got better DEs this year and maybe the DBs are good enough to cover with one less defender. I hope so, but sometimes I prefer no blitz on 3rd and 14. Keep the play in front of you and make them kick.
 
I always try to remember that teams end up looking very different once into the conference slate. Many, many times I've thought I knew who the major threats in the conference would be based on the first few games, only to be completely wrong.

I've been optimistic even before these first 3 games since I felt Franklin had a team on the cusp for a the last couple of pedestrian seasons, maybe not unlike Paterno going into 2005. I don't expect PSU to compete to win the B1G this season, but with the young talent they have, it's a possibility if things fall the right way. I do expect the team to get better and set themselves up to compete at least once in the next 2-3 seasons though.
 
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I think it depends how the game plays out. He'll get skewered if we lose close and there were questionable play calls and poor clock management. Or even if like last year when we lost on a big play due to broken coverage.

At least we've beaten Michigan in the past few years. The fans are fed up with losing to OSU, especially when blowing big 4th qtr leads.

no one plays/coaches a perfect game so if they lose a close one there will undoubtedly be a moment or two that falls into one of those buckets.
 
Pump the brakes on Minnesota until they play some body with a pulse. At Sparty this Saturday then Purdue at home. If they're still unbeaten then it's a concern...but remember this: 2019. That one was away. This one is not only at home but it's a White Out. And before you bring up Illinois last year and concern about stopping the run, let's try to recall yesterday at Jordan Hare, then let's remember that last year we didn't have PJ, or Carter, or Beamon. I expect to beat Minnesota.

To me it's 2 games and 1-1 is the goal. Michigan and Ohio State.
I don't understand all this respect for Michigan State and Minnesota by some of these posters. Anything less than 10-2 would be a major disappointment. Don't these people ever follow the recruiting rankings every year? Don't they realize who has more players currently in the NFL? A bigger talent gap exists with the Michigan State and Minnesota personnel in comparison to Penn State, than Penn State's talent shortage in comparison to Ohio State and Michigan. I think Penn State is more likely to upset Ohio State or Michigan than they are of losing at home to anybody else in the Big 10. Michigan State and Minny are at home. They are only going to lose to them if they suffer several key injuries.
 
I don't understand all this respect for Michigan State and Minnesota by some of these posters. Anything less than 10-2 would be a major disappointment. Don't these people ever follow the recruiting rankings every year? Don't they realize who has more players currently in the NFL? A bigger talent gap exists with the Michigan State and Minnesota personnel in comparison to Penn State, than Penn State's talent shortage in comparison to Ohio State and Michigan. I think Penn State is more likely to upset Ohio State or Michigan than they are of losing at home to anybody else in the Big 10. Michigan State and Minny are at home. They are only going to lose to them if they suffer several key injuries.
I pretty much agree with you, but I just don't believe it's that clear cut.

The players that PSU has put in the NFL won't help PSU beat any of the teams PSU plays this season, other than possibly coming to campus for a game and cheering from the sidelines. But I do believe that PSU probably has twice as many future NFL players on the current roster than any B10 team other than OSU and Michigan.

Auburn has recruited almost exactly on a par with PSU the last 4 years yet due to their coaching and failure to protect the football they got embarassed at home by PSU.

And given that PSU consistently recruits at a higher level than MSU and Minny it seems that those schools can address more of their needs in the portal as PSU has higher talent depth and portal players want to play when they show up for the most part. MSU's 2021 team is exhibit A for that reasoning.

And "They are only going to lose to them if they suffer several key injuries", or PSU significantly loses the turnover battle in those games. Turnovers are the equalizer and are big contributors to upsets in many games, such as PSU's win over OSU in 2016.
 
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I pretty much agree with you, but I just don't believe it's that clear cut.

The players that PSU has put in the NFL won't help PSU beat any of the teams PSU plays this season, other than possibly coming to campus for a game and cheering from the sidelines. But I do believe that PSU probably has twice as many future NFL players on the roster than any B10 team other than OSU and Michigan.

Auburn has recruited almost exactly on a par with PSU the last 4 years yet due to their coaching and failure to protect the football they got embarassed at home by PSU.

And given that PSU consistently recruits at a higher level than MSU and Minny it seems that those schools can address more of their needs in the portal as PSU has higher talent depth and portal players want to play when they show up for the most part. MSU's 2021 team is exhibit A for that reasoning.

And "They are only going to lose to them if they suffer several key injuries", or PSU significantly loses the turnover battle in those games. Turnovers are the equalizer and are big contributors to upsets in many games, such as PSU's win over OSU in 2016.
Agreed...it's not so cut and dry like the poster wrote. The only way we lose to teams without as much talent are injuries? It just doesn't work that way. MSU has a handful of wins over PSU, Michigan, etc., over several years. Minny beat us in 2019. Anyone on the schedule, especially B1G opponents, can beat you if you aren't careful. While we may scoff at NW in two weeks, they can run the rock very well. You just never know in CFB, where one bad quarter can spell doom. This team is not a polished or close to a finished product, so only time will tell before we can start if not guaranteeing, but at least being supremely confident against teams that have beaten us before.
 
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Agreed...it's not so cut and dry like the poster wrote. The only way we lose to teams without as much talent are injuries? It just doesn't work that way. MSU has a handful of wins over PSU, Michigan, etc., over several years. Minny beat us in 2019. Anyone on the schedule, especially B1G opponents, can beat you if you aren't careful. While we may scoff at NW in two weeks, they can run the rock very well. You just never know in CFB, where one bad quarter can spell doom. This team is not a polished or close to a finished product, so only time will tell before we can start if not guaranteeing, but at least being supremely confident against teams that have beaten us before.
If Illinois can beat us on homecoming as a 20 point underdog, best be sure Northwestern can.
 
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Respecting all opponents is pretty important. I seem to recall Iowa beating an undefeated Michigan just one week removed from being dismantled at PSU.....and then there was Purdue's thrashing of Ohio State. The players aren't wearing their recruiting ratings on their jerseys.
 
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