Please feel free to add to my breakdown of the schedule and each opponents relative strength and returning starters.
Overall Schedule: I really don't like @Indiana as the first game due to so much returning experience. This is a very tough draw as opposed to later in the year. Follow that by Ohio St and we simply can't look ahead or have much tune up before the defining matchup. I also don't like that we get another 1 - 2 punch in Iowa then Michigan. Iowa beats teams up and by then Michigan may have had enough time to overcome their inexperience to take advantage of it. These are my primary concerns. No favors done in terms of separating our tougher opponents but rather having them back to back.
@ Indiana - They were 8-5 last year and only lost by 1 TD to us at home. From what I can tell, they only lose 6 starters from last year (their 4th and 5th top WRs, OC, OG, but also a LB and Safety who had 2nd and 3rd most tackles). This may be our 2nd toughest game of the year until the Big 10 championship game (yes, we have a very good shot to be there).
Ohio St- Finished 13-1 and #3 in the country. Lost a ton though but have probably the 2nd best talent in the nation waiting to get their opportunities. I would have felt better had Shaun Wade and Wyatt Davis not opted back in. Anyway, they return their Heisman hopeful at QB but lost the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th receivers. Lucky for them, they have elite young WRs to plug in. They return 3 of 5 on the Oline and their TE. RB seems to be a question mark between losing Dobbins, Gill, and then Teague and Crowly and Oklahoma transfer Sermon all coming off injuries. Not sure what to expect at RB except it is not going to be at Dobbins level. Their Dline lost a lot. Only DE Smith is back and they also lost Robert Landers who was their top 2nd string DT. So their top 3 DTs are gone and so is Chase Young. Young talent is there, will it be ready by game 2? Their top tackler LB Harrison is gone but the other LBs return. Only Shaun Wade returns in the defensive backfield but there are some highly touted young guys that will fill in. Again, ready by game 2? Who knows. I think their offense is pretty darn good by game 2 but the defense will still be on a learning curve.
Maryland- Maryland was 3-9 last year. No more analysis is required.
@Nebraska- Nebraska was 5-7 but could be improving. At some point Frost should make a difference there. Probably not this year because they have us and Ohio St as cross over games. Good luck.
Iowa- Finished 10-3 and #15 in the country. I think they lost 5 starters including their QB on offense and 6 starters on D but not sure if they had any opt outs I'm not tracking. All WRs return, TE is gone, QB is gone, 3 of 5 Oline return but lost Wirfs, and Goodsen and Sargent return at RB. They lose 3 of 4 DL starters, a LB (their top tackler), and half of the DBs (3rd and 6th leading tacklers).
Michigan - Finished 9-4 and #18 in the country. It appears they return 4 offensive starters, WR Bell (#1 receiver), TE Eubanks (#5 receiver), RB Charbonnet, and FB Mason. All Oline starters are gone. They lose Dwumfour on the DLine but return the rest. They lose their top 3 tacklers including 3 of 4 listed starting LBs and 3 of 5 listed starting DBs (Harbaugh is so weird). Seems like Michigan loses an awful lot and breaking in a QB with 0 returning Oline is going to be a challenge. UPDATE: Apparently starting RT Mayfield opted back in.
Rutgers - No analysis required.
Mich St - Was 7-6 last year. They lose 4 Offensive starters including their QB and #1 WR, an OT, and TE (who was #3 receiver). They lost their entire starting DLine, a LB, and 2 of 4 starting DBs.
Wisconsin/Minnesota - We'll take a closer look when we learn which one we face for the championship.
OK, so how about the Nittany Lions? 11-2 and #9 finish last year. We return all but 3 starters on offense (Hamler being the toughest to replace) and not sure Chisena / Shorter (they are a combined 1 starting position) did much for us. Gonzo will be a relatively easy replace considering Thorpe and Miranda were kind of co-starters at OG anyway. The key is finding a few young WRs to contribute from the start and for Clifford to make the jump with our new OC. Defensively, we lose 7 starters including Windsor, Gross-Matos, Parsons, Brown, and Jan Johnson, Reid and Taylor. You would think losing all 3 starting LBs would be a big blow but I think we have some great talent there ready to go. Smith, Ellis, and Luketa will be a very solid if not great group and Dixon has the potential if he isn't in the doghouse. I feel like we have some talent at the other spots too like Mustipher and Hansard at DT and Oweh and Isaac at DE and Sutherland and Brisker at FS and Ellis and Wilson at CB. So I do think this team will be better than their 2019 edition. The question is if the new offensive philosophy, WRs, and the new defensive starters will be ready for prime time game 1 and 2. Because they don't get to work out the kinks with any cupcakes and our schedule is starting at a sprint.
Ohio State is always the toughest opponent. I like getting them early despite breaking in a new offense. With their defensive turnover and getting them 2nd game, perhaps we catch them not yet ready for what we throw at them. This is a coin flip. Wish we had 110k there to make a difference. Going with the good guys 41 - 38.
Indiana is probably the 2nd toughest game not only because they weren't far behind us last year at home but they return more than anyone from a pretty good squad. In the first game and away, their experience is going to make it extremely tough. Still, we have more talent. After being down 21-13 at half, PSU comes back to win 37 - 31.
Iowa could still be tough but I think they have a slight drop off this year. Going with 31 - 24 PSU.
Michigan drops off as well but starts to pick it up by the time we play. Going with 45 - 23 PSU.
Mich St is the fifth toughest game at 51 - 27 PSU.
Nebraska hangs tough for a half but PSU runs away 48 - 20.
Maryland and Rutgers are Maryland and Rutgers.
Overall Schedule: I really don't like @Indiana as the first game due to so much returning experience. This is a very tough draw as opposed to later in the year. Follow that by Ohio St and we simply can't look ahead or have much tune up before the defining matchup. I also don't like that we get another 1 - 2 punch in Iowa then Michigan. Iowa beats teams up and by then Michigan may have had enough time to overcome their inexperience to take advantage of it. These are my primary concerns. No favors done in terms of separating our tougher opponents but rather having them back to back.
@ Indiana - They were 8-5 last year and only lost by 1 TD to us at home. From what I can tell, they only lose 6 starters from last year (their 4th and 5th top WRs, OC, OG, but also a LB and Safety who had 2nd and 3rd most tackles). This may be our 2nd toughest game of the year until the Big 10 championship game (yes, we have a very good shot to be there).
Ohio St- Finished 13-1 and #3 in the country. Lost a ton though but have probably the 2nd best talent in the nation waiting to get their opportunities. I would have felt better had Shaun Wade and Wyatt Davis not opted back in. Anyway, they return their Heisman hopeful at QB but lost the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th receivers. Lucky for them, they have elite young WRs to plug in. They return 3 of 5 on the Oline and their TE. RB seems to be a question mark between losing Dobbins, Gill, and then Teague and Crowly and Oklahoma transfer Sermon all coming off injuries. Not sure what to expect at RB except it is not going to be at Dobbins level. Their Dline lost a lot. Only DE Smith is back and they also lost Robert Landers who was their top 2nd string DT. So their top 3 DTs are gone and so is Chase Young. Young talent is there, will it be ready by game 2? Their top tackler LB Harrison is gone but the other LBs return. Only Shaun Wade returns in the defensive backfield but there are some highly touted young guys that will fill in. Again, ready by game 2? Who knows. I think their offense is pretty darn good by game 2 but the defense will still be on a learning curve.
Maryland- Maryland was 3-9 last year. No more analysis is required.
@Nebraska- Nebraska was 5-7 but could be improving. At some point Frost should make a difference there. Probably not this year because they have us and Ohio St as cross over games. Good luck.
Iowa- Finished 10-3 and #15 in the country. I think they lost 5 starters including their QB on offense and 6 starters on D but not sure if they had any opt outs I'm not tracking. All WRs return, TE is gone, QB is gone, 3 of 5 Oline return but lost Wirfs, and Goodsen and Sargent return at RB. They lose 3 of 4 DL starters, a LB (their top tackler), and half of the DBs (3rd and 6th leading tacklers).
Michigan - Finished 9-4 and #18 in the country. It appears they return 4 offensive starters, WR Bell (#1 receiver), TE Eubanks (#5 receiver), RB Charbonnet, and FB Mason. All Oline starters are gone. They lose Dwumfour on the DLine but return the rest. They lose their top 3 tacklers including 3 of 4 listed starting LBs and 3 of 5 listed starting DBs (Harbaugh is so weird). Seems like Michigan loses an awful lot and breaking in a QB with 0 returning Oline is going to be a challenge. UPDATE: Apparently starting RT Mayfield opted back in.
Rutgers - No analysis required.
Mich St - Was 7-6 last year. They lose 4 Offensive starters including their QB and #1 WR, an OT, and TE (who was #3 receiver). They lost their entire starting DLine, a LB, and 2 of 4 starting DBs.
Wisconsin/Minnesota - We'll take a closer look when we learn which one we face for the championship.
OK, so how about the Nittany Lions? 11-2 and #9 finish last year. We return all but 3 starters on offense (Hamler being the toughest to replace) and not sure Chisena / Shorter (they are a combined 1 starting position) did much for us. Gonzo will be a relatively easy replace considering Thorpe and Miranda were kind of co-starters at OG anyway. The key is finding a few young WRs to contribute from the start and for Clifford to make the jump with our new OC. Defensively, we lose 7 starters including Windsor, Gross-Matos, Parsons, Brown, and Jan Johnson, Reid and Taylor. You would think losing all 3 starting LBs would be a big blow but I think we have some great talent there ready to go. Smith, Ellis, and Luketa will be a very solid if not great group and Dixon has the potential if he isn't in the doghouse. I feel like we have some talent at the other spots too like Mustipher and Hansard at DT and Oweh and Isaac at DE and Sutherland and Brisker at FS and Ellis and Wilson at CB. So I do think this team will be better than their 2019 edition. The question is if the new offensive philosophy, WRs, and the new defensive starters will be ready for prime time game 1 and 2. Because they don't get to work out the kinks with any cupcakes and our schedule is starting at a sprint.
Ohio State is always the toughest opponent. I like getting them early despite breaking in a new offense. With their defensive turnover and getting them 2nd game, perhaps we catch them not yet ready for what we throw at them. This is a coin flip. Wish we had 110k there to make a difference. Going with the good guys 41 - 38.
Indiana is probably the 2nd toughest game not only because they weren't far behind us last year at home but they return more than anyone from a pretty good squad. In the first game and away, their experience is going to make it extremely tough. Still, we have more talent. After being down 21-13 at half, PSU comes back to win 37 - 31.
Iowa could still be tough but I think they have a slight drop off this year. Going with 31 - 24 PSU.
Michigan drops off as well but starts to pick it up by the time we play. Going with 45 - 23 PSU.
Mich St is the fifth toughest game at 51 - 27 PSU.
Nebraska hangs tough for a half but PSU runs away 48 - 20.
Maryland and Rutgers are Maryland and Rutgers.
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