Qualifier Allocations - 2022

[RoarLions1]

Big Ten Only (my thoughts after review)
Officially released Feb. 25, but will probably see them Feb. 24

125: 9 easy, possible 10 if Cardini's Win % (9-7) holds up
133: 9 easy, Gliva & Burwick have outside shots at earning a spot
141: 9 easy, outside shot for Rooks
149: 7 easy, 8 likely
157: 6 easy, better than 50-50 Model earns a spot
165: 6 easy, 7 likely (Fish), outside shot at more (Wilson, Edsell)
174: 7 easy, 8 likely (Fisher), outside shot at 9 (McNally, poor Win % & RPI)
184: 12 easy?? (sounds high, but the back-end of 184 is loaded
197: 9 easy, 11 possible (Smith, Foy, my guess is one of these for 10)
285: 9 easy, no more, no less

Edit: modified 184

 

[El-Jefe]

Not so sure about any weight getting 11 or 12 spots.

Did a quick scan of the past 5 years -- 10 was the max and happened only 4x out of 50 weights.

Maybe 11+ happened earlier? Too lazy to look up pre-2017. But seems unlikely.

 

[tomsc]

It's too bad that the weights that we are most on the bubble for qualifying for will likely have among the fewest automatic qualifier spots.

 

[rmg78]

Not so sure about any weight getting 11 or 12 spots.

Did a quick scan of the past 5 years -- 10 was the max and happened only 4x out of 50 weights.

Maybe 11+ happened earlier? Too lazy to look up pre-2017. But seems unlikely.

You mean to tell us that you could not go back to 2010, you know, when HR people believe that PSU fans believe wrestling started

 

[nitlion6]

You mean to tell us that you could not go back to 2010, you know, when HR people believe that PSU fans believe wrestling started

Believe it started? Whata mean? April 17, 2009 is the date of the beginning of the USA wrestling Renaissance. The day USA wrestling began the move from middle ages wrestling thuggery to modern day wrestling art.

 

[mcpat]

Was reading Flo’s annual report on nationals from 2021. PA high schools produced approx. 2.5x as many AAs as the #2 state (and 17x as many as Iowa).

 

[jmadden1998]

Was reading Flo’s annual report on nationals from 2021. PA high schools produced approx. 2.5x as many AAs as the #2 state (and 17x as many as Iowa).

Pennsylvania produces a lot of really good wrestlers.

 

[McScoreley]

Iowa produced 1 AA in 2021: Gannon Gremmel

 

[mcpat]

View embedded media

Pennsylvania produces a lot of really good wrestlers.

Despite PA only having wrestling since 2009.

 

[jmadden1998]

Despite PA only having wrestling since 2009.

From this joke. It’s run its course multiple times.

 

[nitlion6]

View embedded media

From this joke. It’s run its course multiple times.

No. It's like Cael can't coach. These are just two of the utterly stupid takes that gained life on your message board and must be continuously made fun of.

 

[west2east]

Believe it started? Whata mean? April 17, 2009 is the date of the beginning of the USA wrestling Renaissance. The day USA wrestling began the move from middle ages wrestling thuggery to modern day wrestling art.

08-09 season was under the old system where coaches would vote on the wildcards immediately following the tournament

 

[jrod65]

Well done, gents. You went from a worthwhile OP on allocations to bringing up HR by post #4.

Probably isn't the record, but impressive nonetheless....

 

[nitlion6]

Well done, gents. You went from a worthwhile OP on allocations to bringing up HR by post #4.

Probably isn't the record, but impressive nonetheless....

Ever since you got the damn virus and I found myself being concerned about your well being it genuinely brings me joy knowing we make you happy.

 

[johnstownsteel]

Well done, gents. You went from a worthwhile OP on allocations to bringing up HR by post #4.

Probably isn't the record, but impressive nonetheless....

Meanwhile over on HR in the 91 Carver thread, the OP was reliving a great memory only to have a Sandusky reference made just 3 posts later. Wouldn’t be all that surprising except for the fact that no PSU fans even posted in the thread.

Impressive…

 

[jrod65]

Ever since you got the damn virus and I found myself being concerned about your well being it genuinely brings me joy knowing we make you happy.

Seriously, I appreciate the concern. My bout with Covid really was no biggie at all.

No need to hold back on my account. Proceed with the HR bashing as you see fit. Just know that the J's(@js8793, @jmadden1998, and I) are always lurking...

 

[jrod65]

Meanwhile over on HR in the 91 Carver thread, the OP was reliving a great memory only to have a Sandusky reference made just 3 posts later. Wouldn’t be all that surprising except for the fact that no PSU fans even posted in the thread.

Impressive…

Touche

 

[El-Jefe]

Meanwhile over on HR in the 91 Carver thread, the OP was reliving a great memory only to have a Sandusky reference made just 3 posts later. Wouldn’t be all that surprising except for the fact that no PSU fans even posted in the thread.

Impressive…

They couldn't let themselves be one-upped by 34 and Stalling.

 

[RoarLions1]

Not so sure about any weight getting 11 or 12 spots.

Did a quick scan of the past 5 years -- 10 was the max and happened only 4x out of 50 weights.

Maybe 11+ happened earlier? Too lazy to look up pre-2017. But seems unlikely.

Hence the ? No need to go back beyond 2015 anyway, as there were only 12 teams in the B1G for the 2 years prior, and 11 three years prior to that.

It's all math, so here goes with a deeper dive at 184, using the second set of CRs and RPI's, adding in a few known bouts since then;
1 - Brooks (Silver)
2 - Amine (Silver)
3 - Romero (Silver)
4 - Poznanski (Gold)
5 - Venz (Silver, maybe Gold)
6 - Cochran (Gold)
7 - Washington (Gold)
8 - Malczewski (Gold)
?? - Braunagel (maybe Silver, no RPI and 63% Wins)
9 - Salazar (Gold)
10 - Lyon (Silver)
?? - Assad (maybe Silver, no RPI and 62% Wins)
?? - Weiler (maybe Silver, 32 CR and 22nd in RPI, Win% won't cut it)

So, right now it's 10 as I see it, with 2 maybe's (Braunagel and Assad). Weiler's numbers won't meet the criteria.

 

[El-Jefe]

Hence the ? No need to go back beyond 2015 anyway, as there were only 12 teams in the B1G for the 2 years prior, and 11 three years prior to that.

It's all math, so here goes with a deeper dive at 184, using the second set of CRs and RPI's, adding in a few known bouts since then;
1 - Brooks (Silver)
2 - Amine (Silver)
3 - Romero (Silver)
4 - Poznanski (Gold)
5 - Venz (Silver, maybe Gold)
6 - Cochran (Gold)
7 - Washington (Gold)
8 - Malczewski (Gold)
?? - Braunagel (maybe Silver, no RPI and 63% Wins)
9 - Salazar (Gold)
10 - Lyon (Silver)
?? - Assad (maybe Silver, no RPI and 62% Wins)
?? - Weiler (maybe Silver, 32 CR and 22nd in RPI, Win% won't cut it)

So, right now it's 10 as I see it, with 2 maybe's (Braunagel and Assad). Weiler's numbers won't meet the criteria.

Which is true within a B10-centric view.

The missing context -- and I don't expect you to dig into all of this -- is how many wrestlers across D1 satisfy those criteria?

Let's say exactly 29 wrestlers reach the criteria, including Braunagel and Assad. Does the NCAA allocate all 29 spots and therefore give B10 a whopping 12? Or do they allocate 27, with B10 getting 10?

I suspect the NCAA will limit B10 to 10 allocations if at all practical, and consider letting the additional 2 guys in with at-larges if earned. We'll see.

 

[RoarLions1]

Which is true within a B10-centric view.

The missing context -- and I don't expect you to dig into all of this -- is how many wrestlers across D1 satisfy those criteria?

Let's say exactly 29 wrestlers reach the criteria, including Braunagel and Assad. Does the NCAA allocate all 29 spots and therefore give B10 a whopping 12? Or do they allocate 27, with B10 getting 10?

I suspect the NCAA will limit B10 to 10 allocations if at all practical, and consider letting the additional 2 guys in with at-larges if earned.

Yes, it's part of the equation, so my spreadsheet contains all the wrestlers. Hidlay, Keckiesen, Truax, Coleman, Bolen, Geer, Wilson, Munoz, Loew, Kent, Kane, Samuelson, Stephanik, Hopkins, Battista, Small and Key (that's 17) all look like at least Silver standard. Roberts is likely and Harvey is on the same bubble as Braunagel and Assad.

That's 18, possibly 19, leaving 10 or 11 for the B1G unless the wrestling committee goes below 29.

As far as your question, when the field is as strong as 184, I would be surprised if they go below 29, though anything is possible. Using the 3 seasons prior to 2021, AQ's were at 29 for 60% of weight classes.

 

[OkieSpladle]

Yes, it's part of the equation, so my spreadsheet contains all the wrestlers. Hidlay, Keckiesen, Truax, Coleman, Bolen, Geer, Wilson, Munoz, Loew, Kent, Kane, Samuelson, Stephanik, Hopkins, Battista, Small and Key (that's 17) all look like at least Silver standard. Roberts is likely and Harvey is on the same bubble as Braunagel and Assad.

That's 18, possibly 19, leaving 10 or 11 for the B1G unless the wrestling committee goes below 29.

As far as your question, when the field is as strong as 184, I would be surprised if they go below 29, though anything is possible. Using the 3 seasons prior to 2021, AQ's were at 29 for 60% of weight classes.

29 is the max, but having fewer than that isn't a judgement call. They start with .700 win percentage, 30 RPI rank, and 30 coaches rank as the standards. If there are 29 or fewer wrestlers that meet at least 2 of those 3, thats it, the quals are allocated. If there are more than 29, the standards move up in concert (.710-29-29, .720-28-28, etc) until 29 or fewer are selected.

 

[Sportfan2017]

As per WIN Magazine: NCAA DECISION on 1 SECOND INJURY DEFAULT IN EXTRA MATCHES:

The NCAA Division I Wrestling Committee did determine it will NOT consider for championship selections, including conference pre-allocations, any results from extra matches that ended with injury defaults where the wrestlers did not wrestle.