This isn't the NFL. In a bowl game in which you ran a fake punt on the first possession of the game? Come on. You don't kick a FG there especially with our success rate. If you get stopped then you still need a defensive stand then a TD. I'm sorry but betting on us making two FGs is just poor coaching.
PSU - Kentucky Citrus Bowl Official Game Thread
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
This isn't the NFL. In a bowl game in which you ran a fake punt on the first possession of the game? Come on. You don't kick a FG there especially with our success rate. If you get stopped then you still need a defensive stand then a TD. I'm sorry but betting on us making two FGs is just poor coaching.
Given that there were over 4 minutes left and PSU had all 3 timeouts and Kentucky could do nothing on offense in the 4th quarter. I don't think there was a right or wrong decision.
I kept saying that we needed to go into man to man coverage on the receivers and get the rest of the defense near the line of scrimmage.
What big boy football? The discussion of the big win over Illinois this season? We had an exciting game this afternoon. If you want to belittle the team that beat you, maybe you should take a look at Kentucky’s football schedule and tell me who is big time.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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71% FG rate vs. 50% 4th down conversion rate. I think going for it isn't a horrible decision, but it does force you to do things on your next possession if you fail, assuming you get one. The positive end result of going for it on 4th (hopefully a TD) is better than the most positive end result of kicking a FG (3 points), but the results of failure are worse for going for it (no points, forces you to play for win next possession, which means the D knows you are likely to throw long).
Regardless of what happened today Kentucky had a better season. The Tennessee loss was really bad as you know but not much worse than Penn State losing to Michigan State. Kentucky at least had a quality win during their season. Penn State did not unless we're counting App State in OT.
Again, this is a freaking bowl game. You don't kick the FG in that situation when you ran the fake punt in the first half. There's no consistency. With our kicking game you don't take the chance of making both because in that scenario you need 2 made FGs, a stop and a drive to get into FG range. Picking up the fourth is definitely the better odds. And if you fail you need a stop and a TD. Not much changed.
Not rubbing salt but good luck to yall in the future Scared me to death fourth quarter. Yall will be fine
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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You should probably leave and enjoy Kentucky's third ten win season in school history. Noting we had two the previous two years (and those were letdowns for us). Thanks.
That's true. You can't win at a high level without great players unless, of course, you're fortunate to have the arrogance of Jimmy Johnson on the other sideline. But you would be mistaken to think that Alabama would win without Saban's approach to preparation and his staff's game-day coaching.
so if we are going to hindsight, he needed to call TO, and tell Co that he wanted to go for the TD. What would CJF say?
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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It's not the better odds unless math means nothing anymore.
As for kicking the FG being predicated on what you do early in the game, I have no words. Also, you only need one FG after the one was easily made (which happened). Pinnegar's two misses were the result of a) mishandled snap, and b) low kick. I'd take my FG chances from less than 40 yards over a 4th and 6 any day - especially if you saw the play we called on 4th and 5 against OSU.
All this micro analysis is pissing in the wind. This team was not ready to play this game at kick off yet again. One call, one drop, one missed block, one errant pass did not lose this game. Over 3 quarters there were 20 unforced errors each quarter. This is simply is not acceptable.
When I said questionable play calling I was referring to the entire series when Penn State was on the 14 yard line. That's not when you pass on first and second down. You run the ball all three downs and get the ball as close as possible to the 4 yard line. Faced with a 4th & 1 Franklin clearly goes for it on 4th down. But that wasn't the case, they were faced with a 4th & 6 and in this scenario you kick the FG 95% of the time.
Again, it's a freaking bowl game. It's absolutely meaningless. You play to win not to force OT. There's no such thing as an easy FG for this team because of exactly what you said. Low kicks, bad snaps/holds. It was dumb and we saw the result. I don't even care that we lost. It doesn't matter but the fact anyone is trying to defend the inconsistency in his decision making is dumbfounding.
Who knows! Someone needs to tell me why the hell #69, Thorpe, was on the field when UK returned the punt for a TD. Unreal.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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Playing to win means getting to OT to get a chance to win (which is better if you kick the FG). Additionally, your argument seems to rest on some made up 'coaching consistency' - which I think means that if you make the wrong choice once in a game, you keep making it? Anyway, disappointing loss - laters.
Gotta disagree. Pinegar was 0 - 2 on the day prior to that and one was partially blocked. So, I would say assuming the 71% probability was questionable. He made it. But we were still one score down.
The problem is that you are dealing with a much larger chain of probabilities : chance of a FG, chance of a defensive stop, chance of a scoring drive, chance of a FG, chance of winning in OT if not scoring a TD. If any one of these links in the chain breaks , it all breaks.
If there had been more time in the game, it would have been different.
actually he didn't. He blocked it the way he was coached to block it.
No, playing for OT is playing for OT. If you're going to be aggressive then remain aggressive. It was a bad decision. The loss doesn't matter. The poor coaching does.
Give up. These mental midgets don’t understand. The only way it made sense to go was if you had no faith in your kicker making anything (and that was a point to consider). Going into OT wasn’t a bad outcome if that happened given Kentucky only really having one player to worry about. Either you score again after holding or go into OT after 2 FG’s when you had the advantage. The D simply couldn’t get a no gain on first downs. On either series, if they hold Snell to no gain, they hold and you get the ball back with 2-3 mins to go.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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You're not wrong, but it's still the right move on paper. Momentum, etc. notwithstanding, you're counting on converting a 4th and 6 and/or scoring a TD on that drive. Neither guaranteed.
Bigger issues were a) missing two early FGs, and b) idiot plays on ST - especially the fake punt and allowing a kick return. Make one FG, or convert the fake punt, or stop the punt return, and our discussion is moot.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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It's not playing for OT - it's playing for the win, OR OT if you come up short. Your situation only allows for the former (at much lower odds).
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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Right. And only have to get into FG range - opens up the playbook in a way having to go for a TD does not. Sadly, we couldn't stop them on their next drive even though everyone in the world knew Snell was getting the ball. C'est la vie.
It's playing for OT. It isn't playing for a win when you're hoping for a second FG. You don't need a TD & FG to win. There's no point to kick that FG if you're being aggressive and trying to win. You think Saban or Dabo kick there? Of course they don't.
I hope CJF will send message next year that discipline issues have played key roles in bowl games with Bowen in 16 and Windsor this year. Let keep it together. I know it is a challenge but worth mentioning.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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I give up. If you kick the FG, you CAN PLAY FOR THE WIN OR ANOTHER FG. YOU HAVE TWO POTENTIAL SCENARIOS TO WIN. If you don't, YOU HAVE TO PLAY FOR THE WIN. If someone gave you a lottery ticket with one chance to win, or two, which would you take?
Saban or Dabo have dozens of 5* recruits to count on, including kickers who probably don't miss two gimme FGs.
This is the best post of the day.
I agree 100%.
If we go for it and fail we are in the same position as we were when kick a field goal, we have to stop them and get the ball back. Only we have to get a td, instead of scoring twice. Dumb decision.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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What? If we go for it and fail (assuming we'll not settle for anything less than a TD) we're backed into a corner with only one way to win: get a stop on D, and drive the field for a TD. If we kick the FG (which we did), and get a stop on D (required in both scenarios), we can then play for a FG to force OT, or for a TD and the win. If you are a DC and know a team has to drive 80 yards for a TD, OR only 60 to get into FG range, which would you prefer to defend?
If you don't kick the FG you can play for the win by scoring a TD on that drive or the next drive following a stop. WE DIDN'T NEED TWO SCORES. Apparently you think CAPS are needed. My scenario is giving us two chances to win. Your scenario gives us one. Stop and think before you say stupid things. The only way it gives us one chance is if he kicks the FG or if we get stopped. We don't know the outcome so you can't say one chance if we go for it. THINK.
Again, would Dabo or Saban have kicked a FG there? OF COURSE THEY WOULDN'T. It was a typical poor decision. Thankfully this time it doesn't matter. He better make better decisions moving forward.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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So, easier to go 50% on consecutive TD drives assuming a stop by the D than converting any combination of a FG/TD on a subsequent drive following a successful FG? I think you're awful at math. And reality.
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