PSU is lightyears in front of pre-season expectations - plain & simple. That's a FACT that can't be denied, no matter how hard the posing-trolls try.
- Thread starter CJFisJoePaII
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It was always a weak schedule though. There were only 3 opponents ranked in the pre-season. MSU is obviously worse than expected, and potentially on the verge of cratering depending what happens with the brawl suspensions, but no one else was even in the top 25.
Maryland might sneak in to the top 25 by the time we play them. They're currently sitting at 28. The loser of 21 NC State/20 Wake probably drops out. The other teams at the bottom all have losable games. (25 UCF @ Memphis, 24 Oregon State @ Washington, 23 Liberty @ Arkansas, 22 Syracuse @ Pitt, *26 Texas @ #13 K State, *27 UK @ Mizzou)
If James makes it through the season with no bad losses that's an achievement based on past precedent.
If the PSU teams of Franklin played with the hard-nosed, blue collar mentality of the teams of the 70s and 80s, then I would expect a 10-2 finish if no catastrophic injuries take place. However, the mentality of this program has become very soft and fragile, so I easily can see at least one more loss if not two. If IU plays us as hard as they played Michigan, that easily could be a loss, especially with the obligatory letdown. Also, MSU is having a poor season, but they are the kind of power team like Illinois last year and Michigan this year against which Franklin's teams almost always struggle. If MSU comes to play, and that's a big if because they could've checked out by then, then I could see a 17-14 type of game played in a sleepy atmosphere because of when that game will be played.
Also, you have to wonder when many of PSU's players begin to check out, because it seems like that's what happens now at the end of seasons when they know that they can't win a championship of any kind, and obviously several of them won't even play in the bowl game.
So, based on these expectations, are you going to give him credit if he goes 10-2 since you see 1-2 potential losses, or is the narrative going to flip back to he didn't beat anyone worth a damn.
I also find it interesting that of all the games people are flagging as stumbling blocks no one seems to pay attention to the best team left on the schedule, Maryland.
The checking out comment is interesting as well. The rolled into November last year off 3 consecutive losses. They finished 2-2 with the 2 losses a 4 point defeat to a Michigan team that went to the playoff and a 3 point defeat to a top 15 MSU. Not exactly the results I'd expect for a team that completely gave up.
2020 they won 4 straight to close out the season after starting out 0-5. Not sure how that fits with your narrative either.
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This sounds eerily familiar to what a lot of posters on the Iowa board are saying now about Ferentz, with a similar helping of nepotism thrown in for good measure.
Striking how CJFs record through 109 games is IDENTICAL to JoePa's last 109, but, as the OP of that info pointed out, some here wax poetic for the "good ole days" that were so much better but don't go nearly far enough back into history for that to be true.
Maryland is the type of team against which PSU matches up well, and it's at home. Otherwise, they clearly are the best team left on the schedule.
If PSU goes 10-2 and somehow makes it to one of the "big" bowls, I'll be satisfied with this season except for the way they lost to Michigan. I never thought that they would beat this OSU team, so I was pleasantly surprised that that game actually was in doubt well into the fourth quarter.
Also, I didn't say that there will be a lot of players who will check out; what I said is that you have to wonder if there will be some who do, especially if this team loses any more games. Of course, that goes for the teams that they're going to play, so it could be a wash.
What you said was "it seems like that's what happens now at the end of seasons when they know that they can't win a championship of any kind"
It seems like that hasn't happened the last two years despite disappointing results.
After thinking about your comments, I admit that I may be somewhat wrong about checking out. However, even if we should make it to one of the traditional big bowls, I would expect some opt outs, because that definitely has become a trend; just look at what Pickett did last year.
Bowl games outside the playoff are a crap shoot. Best case scenario right now is win out strong, Illinois gets blown out by Michigan, the west gets blown out of the CG again and Clemson drops a game before the ACC CG, setting up a Clemson/PSU Orange bowl.
Well, at least Wake no longer is a possibility like what was being reported last week.
They wax poetic because they want to insinuate that Franklin is single handedly responsible for a drop-off from that standard even though it hadn't existed for almost two decades prior to his arrival.
The team went 4-5 and 7-6 the last two years. The o/u this year was 8 wins. What did you expect? Please point us to your 11-1/12-0 pre-season prediction.
LOL. 10 and 2 only because PennStates opponents are all garbage with the exception on OSU and UM. And we know how those games turned out. 0 and 2 against decent competition.
Well stated. People who are being negative about this season are either trolls, do not understand CFB or just enjoy complaining about things.
Yep…program went thru some relatively dark times. But it was built upon a record second to no one for 4 decades. That is the ceiling. We are paying to seek the ceiling again. You know, be elite. We are no where close and going the wrong way.
And that pesky National Champoinship in the most watched college football game ever.
Yes, each of the last 3 seasons has been progressively worse, as evidenced by the record in 2021 being much worse than 2020 and 2022 is an absolute trainwreck compared to 2021.
Do you give Franklin a pass for the scholarship restricted seasons in 14 and 15 like you give BOB?
He is not coming close to meeting his own self-described elite standard. And he is going wrong way.
I sure do give him a pass…but Franklin peaked 5-6 years ago and things are going the wrong way…not in an exact straight line but definitely the wrong way…and not looking good for future…both lines and lbs are looking worse…and not recruiting strong in talent or numbers…which will limit this team even more significantly going forwards.
We are not even close to being elite and tbe separation is widening.
And this year is not yet complete. It could get worse. Past performance says that is a high probability.
You said....
If James makes it through the season with no bad losses that's an achievement based on past precedent.
I said that is an indictment of a coach making $8.5M/yr.
Is it not fair to think that one of the top paid coaches in CFB should NOT annually have a bad loss? It's literally his job to prepare his players to play at a high level and he struggles against teams of similar talent, sneaks by too many teams with less talent, has maybe 1 or 2 wins that would be consider upsets, and the past precedent is bad losses.
Look, I don't dislike Franklin. I think he does everything well as a football coach... except coach actual football. I wish he could figure it out, but I've seen too much history with no trends in the right direction to think it will change. His posturing and his paycheck demand a better coached team.
Upsets happen to big dollar coaches. Just some notable defeats by touchdown+ favorites.
Day lost as a 14.5 point favorite and as a 7 point favorite last season.
Urban Meyer lost in 2018 as 29.5 point favorite, 2017 he lost as a 21 point favorite and a 7.5 point favorite. In 2016 he lost as a 17 point favorite. Lost in 2015 as a 13 point favorite.
Lincoln Riley lost in 2020 as a 27.5 point favorite and a 7.5 point favorite. Lost in 2019 as a 21 point favorite. 2018 as a 7.5 point favorite. 2017 lost as a 31 point favorite.
Dabo lost last year as 10.5 point favorites last year and then somehow was the underdog in a loss to Pitt.
Hell Saban lost this year as a 9 point favorite. Last season he lost as an 18.5 point favorite.
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So if 10-2 (assuming he achieves it) isn't a step in the right direction because he didn't upset either of the top 5 opponents on the schedule (that no one reasonably expected them to) then you're just not a reasonable individual.
Yep they lost a game and all remained in the national conversation. We have lost two and are no longer in the conversation for the playoff.
Maybe read the comment I was replying to? Which was about big dollar coaches not getting upset.
Please name the quality opponents/ wins so far this season and what challenges lay a head the rest of the season? Right, they aren’t any.
The fact that PSU didn’t curb stomp any f the following - CMU / NW / Purdue - is a major concern. 10-2 without beating anyone meaningful and ranked outside of the top 10 is like marrying your first cousin.
Agree with a lot of what you say but I'm having trouble with this one. Which decades are we talking about?
Guess its the same as going 6-6. Fine I hope we lose the next 4. All the same.
All is lost. Season was doomed to be a miserable failure from the start.
Was your season prediction 11-1 or 12-0? If it was 11-1 was the win over UM or OSU?
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Well that depends on how you define "top tier" doesn't it? Is the "top tier" the 95th Decile and above? Because PSU could still prove to be a "Top Tier" team at the end of the year.
Ask Mac. He's more hung up on it that I am. Seems like it's beating 3 ranked opponents per year though, minimum.
Well gee, I would imagine most rational, remotely objective people would use the Final CFP Rankings. The 95th Percentile would be essentially the Top 7 teams.
No one here is rational or objective. Best case scenario for the rest of the year is to win out, make the Orange bowl and have Clemson drop a game to Notre Dame so that they end up as the opponent. Any other bowl opponent will be minimized, win or lose. (Clemson would probably be written off as not caring, especially if any players sat, now that I think about it).
Wake is still a possibility if Clemson wins out. Wake or UNC seem most likely...sadly.
Definitely don't have an impressive win. Purdue or Ohio is our best win thus far. When Ohio is in the discussion it's a problem
Agree…he gets to 10-2 and it is a small step in the right direction. Credit where credits is due…will need to get very aggressive in portal and improve front 7 and OL or that small step will quickly retreat back into decline…will se how it plays out…loses one of last 4 (or 2 or 3) and situation will get ugly.
Look man, I'm trying to argue with you, but the last thing I'll say on the topic is that no one has ever said these words about Saban, dabo, or urban.
"If James makes it through the season with no bad losses that's an achievement based on past precedent."
