UFF is back! (Note: referring to oneself in the third person is a sign of awesomeness). Welcome to the pre-tourney simulation discussion.
TLDR: Penn State is favored over Ohio State 54.2% to 46.8% with the field at <0.1%.
Background: I made a probabilistic simulation model a number of years ago (see my posts from previous years) to estimate the probability of winning for the top ten teams. The model uses past data from NCAA tournaments to assign the winning percentages of any seed against any other seed. IT ALSO INCLUDES BONUS POINTS. All brackets including wrestlebacks are simulated. The model was benchmarked (NOT CALIBRATED) against previous years tourneys. Calibration would make it better but it is good enough as is. Usually it gets all of the top five teams in order. Last year OkSt swapped 2 and 3 with Ohio State and VT swapped 5 and 6 with Mizzou. Sometimes teams swap a spot when their predicted scores are pretty close. The model has a nice GUI and is easy to use.
Based on the seeds/brackets that came out you can throw the numbers in a spreadsheet and assume everyone wrestles to seed and not assign bonus points, but why drive a Pinto when you can drive a Ferrari???? (Note: This is not to disparage Pinto’s that I actually think are cool, especially a Pinto with hydraulics that you could make bounce at a stoplight).
This Year: The race this year is tight if you believe the seeds are accurate. It looks like a dead heat between PSU (We Are!) and Ohio St. The probability of PSU winning is 54.2% vs. 46.8% for Ohio St. The field is essentially 0% (<0.1%). Missouri and Michigan have the lead on battling for 3rd and 4th with Iowa, NCSt and Lehigh in a dogfight for 5th through 7th. Predicted mean scores are:
PSU – 136.9
OSU – 134.8
Mizzou – 93.1
Michigan – 78.4
Iowa – 71.7
NCSt – 68.5
Lehigh – 67.8
Now the question becomes do you think the seeds are correct? It doesn’t really matter what the seeding committee assigns, if a guy is good HE WRESTLES LIKE A #1 even if he was given something else. Seeding isn’t an issue for him, seeding is an issue for the guys below him that shouldn’t be seeing him early in the tourney. Who it really screws is the very good guy that the underseeded guy beats that gets knocked into the wrestlebacks and in the blood round meets another guy like himself. Both of those guys would normally AA but one gets knocked out. It is a really bad look for the NCAA to have a coach of one of the top teams on the seeding committee. That would be like putting Saban on the CFB playoff committee. Anyone else think that is completely absurd? Why is this okay for wrestling? Wrestling fans should raise a stink about this, I digress….
I think Nolf will wrestle like a #1 seed. I think Joseph will wrestle like a #2 seed (though his quarter with Lewis could be tough). And I think Pletcher is going to really struggle to achieve 3rd. Put these things together and you get:
PSU – 91% and Ohio St – 9%
Should Cael have MFF’ed Nolf? Yes! See above, if Nolf is healthy it doesn’t matter what he is seeded. You are going to walk out on the mat and face 7 (or more likely 1 or 2) minutes of fury. Although Zain is more fury. Nolf is more like the pitcher that strikes you out on three pitches and you don’t even swing.
Ohio St won the Big Ten tournament therefore they are favored in the NCAA tournament – False! They are different beasts. The field is deeper and you face tougher guys starting in round 2 at NCAA’s. Take 141 for example. McKenna had an easy path to the BT title at 141. That weight is loaded nationally outside the Big Ten. All the credit to him if he can win the NCAA title at 141. Plus the weight management is a much bigger deal. Teams that are “big” and cutting a lot underperform relative to teams that are closer to their natural weights- until the finals. Then they can balloon up. Look for upsets in the quarters and semis more than the finals.
Team X got nine qualifiers therefore they are in great shape – False! Qualifiers are nice for the individual who has worked so hard, but you need thoroughbreds, not ponies, to win the NCAA tourney. Sure you can win with a bunch of scrappers, but it is mathematically MUCH more difficult. You need gatling guns (Retherford, Nolf, Nickal, Hall, Joseph) not calvary.
If you are a wrestler reading this, thank you for competing. You, even if you are 1-23 in the MAC, are an asskicker of an athlete.
If you have other scenarios you would like run post replies. I will check in every couple of days up until the tourney.
UFF
TLDR: Penn State is favored over Ohio State 54.2% to 46.8% with the field at <0.1%.
Background: I made a probabilistic simulation model a number of years ago (see my posts from previous years) to estimate the probability of winning for the top ten teams. The model uses past data from NCAA tournaments to assign the winning percentages of any seed against any other seed. IT ALSO INCLUDES BONUS POINTS. All brackets including wrestlebacks are simulated. The model was benchmarked (NOT CALIBRATED) against previous years tourneys. Calibration would make it better but it is good enough as is. Usually it gets all of the top five teams in order. Last year OkSt swapped 2 and 3 with Ohio State and VT swapped 5 and 6 with Mizzou. Sometimes teams swap a spot when their predicted scores are pretty close. The model has a nice GUI and is easy to use.
Based on the seeds/brackets that came out you can throw the numbers in a spreadsheet and assume everyone wrestles to seed and not assign bonus points, but why drive a Pinto when you can drive a Ferrari???? (Note: This is not to disparage Pinto’s that I actually think are cool, especially a Pinto with hydraulics that you could make bounce at a stoplight).
This Year: The race this year is tight if you believe the seeds are accurate. It looks like a dead heat between PSU (We Are!) and Ohio St. The probability of PSU winning is 54.2% vs. 46.8% for Ohio St. The field is essentially 0% (<0.1%). Missouri and Michigan have the lead on battling for 3rd and 4th with Iowa, NCSt and Lehigh in a dogfight for 5th through 7th. Predicted mean scores are:
PSU – 136.9
OSU – 134.8
Mizzou – 93.1
Michigan – 78.4
Iowa – 71.7
NCSt – 68.5
Lehigh – 67.8
Now the question becomes do you think the seeds are correct? It doesn’t really matter what the seeding committee assigns, if a guy is good HE WRESTLES LIKE A #1 even if he was given something else. Seeding isn’t an issue for him, seeding is an issue for the guys below him that shouldn’t be seeing him early in the tourney. Who it really screws is the very good guy that the underseeded guy beats that gets knocked into the wrestlebacks and in the blood round meets another guy like himself. Both of those guys would normally AA but one gets knocked out. It is a really bad look for the NCAA to have a coach of one of the top teams on the seeding committee. That would be like putting Saban on the CFB playoff committee. Anyone else think that is completely absurd? Why is this okay for wrestling? Wrestling fans should raise a stink about this, I digress….
I think Nolf will wrestle like a #1 seed. I think Joseph will wrestle like a #2 seed (though his quarter with Lewis could be tough). And I think Pletcher is going to really struggle to achieve 3rd. Put these things together and you get:
PSU – 91% and Ohio St – 9%
Should Cael have MFF’ed Nolf? Yes! See above, if Nolf is healthy it doesn’t matter what he is seeded. You are going to walk out on the mat and face 7 (or more likely 1 or 2) minutes of fury. Although Zain is more fury. Nolf is more like the pitcher that strikes you out on three pitches and you don’t even swing.
Ohio St won the Big Ten tournament therefore they are favored in the NCAA tournament – False! They are different beasts. The field is deeper and you face tougher guys starting in round 2 at NCAA’s. Take 141 for example. McKenna had an easy path to the BT title at 141. That weight is loaded nationally outside the Big Ten. All the credit to him if he can win the NCAA title at 141. Plus the weight management is a much bigger deal. Teams that are “big” and cutting a lot underperform relative to teams that are closer to their natural weights- until the finals. Then they can balloon up. Look for upsets in the quarters and semis more than the finals.
Team X got nine qualifiers therefore they are in great shape – False! Qualifiers are nice for the individual who has worked so hard, but you need thoroughbreds, not ponies, to win the NCAA tourney. Sure you can win with a bunch of scrappers, but it is mathematically MUCH more difficult. You need gatling guns (Retherford, Nolf, Nickal, Hall, Joseph) not calvary.
If you are a wrestler reading this, thank you for competing. You, even if you are 1-23 in the MAC, are an asskicker of an athlete.
If you have other scenarios you would like run post replies. I will check in every couple of days up until the tourney.
UFF
