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- Thread starter CDW3333
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Considering less than 1 human in 2000 on the planet had a car in 1920, horse farts must have had quite an effect on the first quarter of the twentieth century.
Gassy horses ruined the climate in the early 1900s!
Figure 4. PDO indices,
with predictions to 2040.
From comments...
Don,
Your article in 2008 indicated that you predicted a 30 year cooling of the PDO. Does this prediction still stand?
on January 24, 2016
Yes. I made this prediction in 2000, based on a continuing pattern of PDO 60-year cycles (~30 yrs warm, ~30 yrs cool).
In 1977, the PDO flipped from cool (where it had been from ~1945 to 1977), to warm in a single year, and we had global warming from 1978 to 1998.
In 1999, when the PDO flipped back to cool, I projected the long-term PDO pattern into the future and predicted ~25-30 years of global cooling.
The global climate has followed the PDO for the past century and glaciers have advanced and retreated accordingly.
But the pattern apparently goes back even farther (500 years)
– I plotted the oxygen isotope ratios back to 1480 AD using the accelerator data of Stuiver and Grootes and found 40 such oscillations, averaging 27 years long.
So far, my prediction seems to be holding.
The climate has cooled slightly over the past decade and we have had no warming for 18 years.
Time will tell if the cycle continues for another couple of decades. All indications are that it will.
We’re just entering a Grand Solar Minimum, which, in the past, has correlated very well with climate.
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The AMO generally lags the PDO by several years.
The AMO has been turning cooler the past few years so we can expect some additional climatic cooling.
Your article in 2008 indicated that you predicted a 30 year cooling of the PDO. Does this prediction still stand?
Dr. Don Easterbrookon January 24, 2016
Yes. I made this prediction in 2000, based on a continuing pattern of PDO 60-year cycles (~30 yrs warm, ~30 yrs cool).
In 1977, the PDO flipped from cool (where it had been from ~1945 to 1977), to warm in a single year, and we had global warming from 1978 to 1998.
In 1999, when the PDO flipped back to cool, I projected the long-term PDO pattern into the future and predicted ~25-30 years of global cooling.
The global climate has followed the PDO for the past century and glaciers have advanced and retreated accordingly.
But the pattern apparently goes back even farther (500 years)
– I plotted the oxygen isotope ratios back to 1480 AD using the accelerator data of Stuiver and Grootes and found 40 such oscillations, averaging 27 years long.
So far, my prediction seems to be holding.
The climate has cooled slightly over the past decade and we have had no warming for 18 years.
Time will tell if the cycle continues for another couple of decades. All indications are that it will.
We’re just entering a Grand Solar Minimum, which, in the past, has correlated very well with climate.
-----
The AMO generally lags the PDO by several years.
The AMO has been turning cooler the past few years so we can expect some additional climatic cooling.
We are in one of the coldest periods in the last 10,000 years. (Right side of the graph below)
CDW - Tell us about how much CO2 was in the atmosphere during the 90 some % of the last 10,000 years, that were warmer than today.
How did temps get so warm for so many thousands of years with low CO2?
Why are temps cooler now, when man added some CO2?
CDW - Tell us about how much CO2 was in the atmosphere during the 90 some % of the last 10,000 years, that were warmer than today.
How did temps get so warm for so many thousands of years with low CO2?
Why are temps cooler now, when man added some CO2?
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Hey CDW - we've been telling you this was coming for over a year.
Glad you're paying attention.
Here's a preview for you CDW -
January will be the FOURTH straight month with a "warmest" peak, since the modern satellite era of temperature measurements began.
All that Solar warmed water is continuing to transfer the sun's warmth UP into the Atmosphere.
So gloat all you want warmists.
Party Hardy!
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However, the sources of the solar heat transfer, the ENSO 3.4 region and the ENSO 1/2 regions, have temperatures that are dropping like rocks. How are those drops possible, if CO2 levels are driving their temperatures?
A: It's not the CO2 driving these NATURAL variations, that rational scientists have been predicting with good success, a year and more out.
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So, look at the graph above.
Note that it is projecting a WARMER than normal early 2016 from the residual warmed Pacific waters.
However, note on the right side, as you read down the graph, future months indicate increased COOLING of those same waters.
That indicates a La Niña is on its way. How are those cooler Pacific water temps possible, if current CO2 levels are suppose to Heat those waters?
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