Penn State season stats do not resemble the 4-5 record

[blion72]

just looked at our season stats and they certainly look better than a 4-5 record.

Offense
430 yds per game (37th in FBS)
25 First Downs per game (top 10 in FBS)
dominated time of possession (a routine complaint about past teams)
dominated total yds in several games including > 200 yd difference in games we lost
we dominated Indiana in a way we have not done in past years

Defense
329 yds per game (17th in FBS)
17 First downs per game

Differential
101 yds per game difference is top 10 FBS
8 First downs per game difference is top 10 FBS


Areas that we were not as good in
Not in top 50 in scoring offense - not in line with our Offensive stats (i.e. we had to gain a lot of yds for our points)
Not in top 50 in scoring defense - not in line with our Defensive stats
Net punting
Turnover difference (negative for us)
Penalty yds difference (negative for us)
Red zone % TD was in bottom 10%
I did not see the avg starting field position, but that seemed like an area our opponents did better in most of the games.

Seems like a team that should have been 7-2 or 6-3 at the worst, not 4-5.

 

[royboy]

Turnover difference (negative for us)
Penalty yds difference (negative for us)
Red zone % TD was in bottom 10%

Seems like a team that should have been 7-2 or 6-3 at the worst, not 4-5.

Key points...esp. Red Zone failures
Not a terrible season by most standards, but pretty bad by PSU history; might be a "could have been" better record, but not a "should have been" based on actual performance

Upside -- this team came through some adversity, there were a number of learning experiences for players and coaches, and some good young players got productive playing time.

 

[BobPSU92]

You are what your stats say you are.

 

[PSUoh90]

Seems like a team that should have been 7-2 or 6-3 at the worst, not 4-5.

Everything you said is spot on. I know I’ll catch hell from some posters for saying this, but the difference between 7-2 and 4-5 just doesn’t really matter this year. If there was ever a season to lose games we should have won, this was it.

 

[rmem]

Our teams seem to always have a good amount of choke in them (4th quarter leads vs. OSU, for example). Many games with lopsided statistical advantage yet they go right down to the end or we lose (Iowa game with Saquon was absolutely horrible in that regard). I don't know what to call it other than choking - the only other closest thing to describe it is bad coaching.
And then there is the whole PSU QB regression thing. This offense needs more of a running threat at qb, someone that is not only fast but has great acceleration from zero to 7 yards - that is what this offense is really lacking.
I really hate the RPO offense.

 

[ram2020]

All good points. The biggest contributing factor at the beginning of the season was turnovers and a total failure to establish the run game, which our offense is reliant on. Once we began turning the ball over less, and Lee and our line got going, we morphed into a solid team at minimum. Still problems on defense and spotty QB accuracy, but better in a big way.

 

[Ian]

Look no further than these three.
• Turnover difference (negative for us)
• Penalty yds difference (negative for us)
• Red zone % TD was in bottom 10%

 

[BrucePa]

The loss at Indiana was the season.

First game of the season, on the road, and they actually had the game won....3 times!

1. About 1:26 left in the 4th quarter, and Penn State was ahead 21-20. Indiana had no time outs. Get the 1st down and take a knee. Instead, they took the TD and gave Indiana the ball back with a 28-20 lead.

2. Keep Indiana out of the end zone with no time outs left, and prevent them from tying the game at 28-28. Fail.

3. Ahead 35-34 in OT, prevent the 2-point conversion. They actually did prevent it, but the points were awarded to Indiana anyway.

That game was won 3 different times, and they blew it. That was the season, right there.

 

[PSULionsDub]

Look no further than these three.
• Turnover difference (negative for us)
• Penalty yds difference (negative for us)
• Red zone % TD was in bottom 10%

The first two stats above say the team was undisciplined and sloppy. The third stat says poor coaching, especially with all the dumb fade routes and the repetitive runs right up the middle. Pretty accurate summary of why we were 4-5 this season.

 

[okinburg1]

The loss at Indiana was the season.

First game of the season, on the road, and they actually had the game won....3 times!

1. About 1:26 left in the 4th quarter, and Penn State was ahead 21-20. Indiana had no time outs. Get the 1st down and take a knee. Instead, they took the TD and gave Indiana the ball back with a 28-20 lead.

2. Keep Indiana out of the end zone with no time outs left, and prevent them from tying the game at 28-28. Fail.

3. Ahead 35-34 in OT, prevent the 2-point conversion. They actually did prevent it, but the points were awarded to Indiana anyway.

That game was won 3 different times, and they blew it. That was the season, right there.

Couldn't agree more. IMO, if PSU beats Indiana, they end up either 8-1 or 7-2. They still would have lost to OSU and perhaps Iowa, but they would have beaten everyone else.

 

[Whiteout Lion]

I wonder where we measured in explosive plays. I bet pretty low. To me the turnovers and lack of explosive plays were the big difference in the record.

 

[psuro]

This is a feel good thread. But, the record is still 4-5. 🙁

 

[CaryPSU]

This is a feel good thread. But, the record is still 4-5. 🙁

YEP!
In all of sports, ain’t but 1 stat that matters:
The column on the left.

 

[83wuzme]

Red zone offense and turnovers were B - A - D. Maybe these stats were a bit disguised by the last few games.
We need a better running game. I get it that KC is changing things over.
We need more Red Zone receivers. We definitely appear to have the TE’s.
Sean needs to get his footwork cleaned up to make better throws, especially off of reads.

The defense was schizophrenic. I don’t understand how guys who had played so much could be so fundamentally bad almost every first half of play. This is a leadership / coaching issue.

 

[bison13]

One of the reason for some of those issues with Redzone and such was that Penn State was chasing touchdowns because they were behind by so much early in the game. They went for it on 4th Down lots of times as well because of trailing. If the games were won possession closer Penn State's probably kicking another half a dozen field goals this year instead of missing on 4th Down

 

[ga.lion]

just looked at our season stats and they certainly look better than a 4-5 record.

Offense
430 yds per game (37th in FBS)
25 First Downs per game (top 10 in FBS)
dominated time of possession (a routine complaint about past teams)
dominated total yds in several games including > 200 yd difference in games we lost
we dominated Indiana in a way we have not done in past years

Defense
329 yds per game (17th in FBS)
17 First downs per game

Differential
101 yds per game difference is top 10 FBS
8 First downs per game difference is top 10 FBS


Areas that we were not as good in
Not in top 50 in scoring offense - not in line with our Offensive stats (i.e. we had to gain a lot of yds for our points)
Not in top 50 in scoring defense - not in line with our Defensive stats
Net punting
Turnover difference (negative for us)
Penalty yds difference (negative for us)
Red zone % TD was in bottom 10%
I did not see the avg starting field position, but that seemed like an area our opponents did better in most of the games.

Seems like a team that should have been 7-2 or 6-3 at the worst, not 4-5.

It shows the impact of turnovers and a really bad red zone effort

 

[blion72]

This is a feel good thread. But, the record is still 4-5. 🙁

actually, I did not feel good starting it. it was quite frustrating when I looked at the facts.

here is something to compare to - in 2019 we were 11-2 (11 in the first number) and had the following results:

Total Offense = 412 yds per game and 21 FDs per game (we lost TOP)

Total Defense = 346 yds per game and 19 FDs per game

Differential = 66 yds per game and 2 FDs per game, and we were negative in a few games vs opponents

in 2020 all these numbers were better. In 2019 we were +8 TO margin.

 

[WestSideLion]

It shows the impact of turnovers and a really bad red zone effort

Ding, ding, ding. The turnover TDs were particularly dooming in 2-3 games. PSU could easily have won if not for them happening at worst possible times.

 

[MtNittany]

I think during our wins, the defenses we beat were so poor that they allowed our back up QB to run for 6 yards at a time when needed. If not for that, how exactly were we going to win games?

 

[bdgan]

just looked at our season stats and they certainly look better than a 4-5 record.

Offense
430 yds per game (37th in FBS)
25 First Downs per game (top 10 in FBS)
dominated time of possession (a routine complaint about past teams)
dominated total yds in several games including > 200 yd difference in games we lost
we dominated Indiana in a way we have not done in past years

Defense
329 yds per game (17th in FBS)
17 First downs per game

Differential
101 yds per game difference is top 10 FBS
8 First downs per game difference is top 10 FBS


Areas that we were not as good in
Not in top 50 in scoring offense - not in line with our Offensive stats (i.e. we had to gain a lot of yds for our points)
Not in top 50 in scoring defense - not in line with our Defensive stats
Net punting
Turnover difference (negative for us)
Penalty yds difference (negative for us)
Red zone % TD was in bottom 10%
I did not see the avg starting field position, but that seemed like an area our opponents did better in most of the games.

Seems like a team that should have been 7-2 or 6-3 at the worst, not 4-5.

Red zone offense was horrible. IMO we need tall receivers who can high point the ball.

Defense give us big plays. Pry has always brought more guys to the LOS and blitzed or fake blitzed. Lots of tackles for losses but also lots of big plays allowed. Some bad tackling too.

Inopportune mistakes. Pinegar was OK after the 2 misses at Indiana but those were costly. Add an ill advised TD by Ford and two ill advised penalties on Indiana's last drive.

One more thing.... A couple of games were were beaten soundly but had more yards and 1st downs than our opponent. That was because the got off to a big lead in the first half then went conservative and sat on the lead. PSU caught up in yards but those yards were not meaningful.

 

[LionDeNittany]

Everything you said is spot on. I know I’ll catch hell from some posters for saying this, but the difference between 7-2 and 4-5 just doesn’t really matter this year. If there was ever a season to lose games we should have won, this was it.

Unfortunately 2019 was also it as was 2018 for PSU.

LdN

 

[PAgeologist]

The first two stats above say the team was undisciplined and sloppy. The third stat says poor coaching, especially with all the dumb fade routes and the repetitive runs right up the middle. Pretty accurate summary of why we were 4-5 this season.

The first two stats also say poor coaching.

 

[ryoder1]

The defense really underperformed as evidenced by the poor pts allowed. We could not get key stops (IU), overpowered (O$U, Iowa) or just horrendous (Maryland and parts of MSU and Illini).

With Oweh and Shelton leaving, the D lind needs a portal player. The LB's really have to develop.

 

[83wuzme]

The defense really underperformed as evidenced by the poor pts allowed. We could not get key stops (IU), overpowered (O$U, Iowa) or just horrendous (Maryland and parts of MSU and Illini).

With Oweh and Shelton leaving, the D lind needs a portal player. The LB's really have to develop.

Did you notice that much of a dropoff in our overall defensive performance with Oweh out of the lineup ?
The confusion and poor fundamentals we often saw this year might be a bigger concern than anything else.

 

[AWS1022]

The first two stats also say poor coaching.

Or players that don’t listen.

 

[PAgeologist]

Or players that don’t listen.

Which also points to poor coaching. Especially if you keep trotting out the same players that don't listen.

 

[PSUSignore]

Look no further than these three.
• Turnover difference (negative for us)
• Penalty yds difference (negative for us)
• Red zone % TD was in bottom 10%

These stats and those from the OP are a perfect example of why CJF doesn't focus on yards, TOP, first downs, etc. We did well there, but that didn't lead to a winning season. His focus is turnover margin, penalties and explosive plays and that focus is likely because their moneyball analysis has shown a better correlation to wins and losses with those metrics. The stats cited here show we didn't do well in 2 of the 3 categories that are most important to the coaches. I haven't seen a summary of explosive plays but anecdotally I suspect we didn't do to well there either. It felt like aside from the Illinois game we didn't have a lot of explosive offense, and the defense seemed to give up a lot more explosive plays this season than in prior years.

 

[AWS1022]

Which also points to poor coaching. Especially if you keep trotting out the same players that don't listen.

Unless they all don’t listen...then what do you do, bench them all? Or maybe they listen in practice and then get mental in games. Is there anything that doesn’t point to poor coaching in your mind? What if they have a great week of practice, everyone looks sharp, then they come out in the game, have a few turnovers, drop some passes, and play like crap? Is that poor coaching?

 

[PAgeologist]

Unless they all don’t listen...then what do you do, bench them all? Or maybe they listen in practice and then get mental in games. Is there anything that doesn’t point to poor coaching in your mind? What if they have a great week of practice, everyone looks sharp, then they come out in the game, have a few turnovers, drop some passes, and play like crap? Is that poor coaching?

We all know you and a couple others on here juggle Franklin's balls in your mouth and he can do no wrong in your eyes. I don't mind him as a coach, but I do believe the last few years (not this years disaster) is his ceiling. PSU will never consistently compete with OSU with him at the helm. Who knows, maybe no coach can match or pass OSU coaching at PSU.

Players not listening-coaching. Whole team not listening-coaching. Turnovers and dropped passes-players. The coaches coach, the players play. But the coaches need to fix issues that consistently occur during gameplay or make a personnel change.

 

[AWS1022]

We all know you and a couple others on here juggle Franklin's balls in your mouth and he can do no wrong in your eyes. I don't mind him as a coach, but I do believe the last few years (not this years disaster) is his ceiling. PSU will never consistently compete with OSU with him at the helm. Who knows, maybe no coach can match or pass OSU coaching at PSU.

Players not listening-coaching. Whole team not listening-coaching. Turnovers and dropped passes-players. The coaches coach, the players play. But the coaches need to fix issues that consistently occur during gameplay or make a personnel change.

I support him because I’ve coached before and I realize much of what goes wrong is on the players....coaches can only do so much. How are players not listening on the coaches? And you said turnovers and dropped passes are on the players so that means the losses they had this year were on the players....thanks for making my point.

 

[BBrown]

just looked at our season stats and they certainly look better than a 4-5 record.

Offense
430 yds per game (37th in FBS)
25 First Downs per game (top 10 in FBS)
dominated time of possession (a routine complaint about past teams)
dominated total yds in several games including > 200 yd difference in games we lost
we dominated Indiana in a way we have not done in past years

Defense
329 yds per game (17th in FBS)
17 First downs per game

Differential
101 yds per game difference is top 10 FBS
8 First downs per game difference is top 10 FBS


Areas that we were not as good in
Not in top 50 in scoring offense - not in line with our Offensive stats (i.e. we had to gain a lot of yds for our points)
Not in top 50 in scoring defense - not in line with our Defensive stats
Net punting
Turnover difference (negative for us)
Penalty yds difference (negative for us)
Red zone % TD was in bottom 10%
I did not see the avg starting field position, but that seemed like an area our opponents did better in most of the games.

Seems like a team that should have been 7-2 or 6-3 at the worst, not 4-5.

Its the 2 at your bottom that did us in...Turnovers and RZ% until about the last 1/4 of the season.

 

[BBrown]

I wonder where we measured in explosive plays. I bet pretty low. To me the turnovers and lack of explosive plays were the big difference in the record.

Agree we probably gave up far more explosive plays than we made.

 

[BBrown]

One of the reason for some of those issues with Redzone and such was that Penn State was chasing touchdowns because they were behind by so much early in the game. They went for it on 4th Down lots of times as well because of trailing. If the games were won possession closer Penn State's probably kicking another half a dozen field goals this year instead of missing on 4th Down

And we didn't just have TO's we had the worst kind of TO's. Scoop and scores, at least 2 right? Pick 6's another 2, I think and then a bunch of turnovers on our side of the 50 and most of them in the first half that put us behind by 21 or more points at halftime.
Talk about trying to skate up hill, geesh.

 

[crm114psu]

I support him because I’ve coached before and I realize much of what goes wrong is on the players....coaches can only do so much. How are players not listening on the coaches? And you said turnovers and dropped passes are on the players so that means the losses they had this year were on the players....thanks for making my point.

I think you did more to prove his point, in your eyes Franklin can do no wrong.

Which player/s were responsible for piss-poor clock management? When did they become responsible for play calling? Who recruited these players?

 

[razpsu]

just looked at our season stats and they certainly look better than a 4-5 record.

Offense
430 yds per game (37th in FBS)
25 First Downs per game (top 10 in FBS)
dominated time of possession (a routine complaint about past teams)
dominated total yds in several games including > 200 yd difference in games we lost
we dominated Indiana in a way we have not done in past years

Defense
329 yds per game (17th in FBS)
17 First downs per game

Differential
101 yds per game difference is top 10 FBS
8 First downs per game difference is top 10 FBS


Areas that we were not as good in
Not in top 50 in scoring offense - not in line with our Offensive stats (i.e. we had to gain a lot of yds for our points)
Not in top 50 in scoring defense - not in line with our Defensive stats
Net punting
Turnover difference (negative for us)
Penalty yds difference (negative for us)
Red zone % TD was in bottom 10%
I did not see the avg starting field position, but that seemed like an area our opponents did better in most of the games.

Seems like a team that should have been 7-2 or 6-3 at the worst, not 4-5.

We are the best 4-5 team ever. Lol

 

[AWS1022]

I think you did more to prove his point, in your eyes Franklin can do no wrong.

Which player/s were responsible for piss-poor clock management? When did they become responsible for play calling? Who recruited these players?

We lost most of the games due to turnovers. And poor clock management is such a catch all accusation because it’s easy to second guess and impossible to know how it would have turned out had it been done differently. Franklin has done a lot wrong, as have all coaches, but very few have cost us games. Poor execution and poor play has cost us far more games than poor clock management or poor play calling. Poor execution will make a great play call look like a terrible play call. Franklin’s coaching decisions cost us one game this year (Indiana) and that wouldn’t even have been close if the players didn’t mess up as much as they did especially Clifford.

 

[Beachwineguy]

You are what your stats say you are.

Unless you’re a Pitt fan talking about Trace McSorely.

In all seriousness, I truly believe that the team is much better than the overall record. Don’t be surprised if betting numbers before the season predict eight wins or less, which should be easy money.

 

[Wallace Breen]

just looked at our season stats and they certainly look better than a 4-5 record.

Offense
430 yds per game (37th in FBS)
25 First Downs per game (top 10 in FBS)
dominated time of possession (a routine complaint about past teams)
dominated total yds in several games including > 200 yd difference in games we lost
we dominated Indiana in a way we have not done in past years

Defense
329 yds per game (17th in FBS)
17 First downs per game

Differential
101 yds per game difference is top 10 FBS
8 First downs per game difference is top 10 FBS


Areas that we were not as good in
Not in top 50 in scoring offense - not in line with our Offensive stats (i.e. we had to gain a lot of yds for our points)
Not in top 50 in scoring defense - not in line with our Defensive stats
Net punting
Turnover difference (negative for us)
Penalty yds difference (negative for us)
Red zone % TD was in bottom 10%
I did not see the avg starting field position, but that seemed like an area our opponents did better in most of the games.

Seems like a team that should have been 7-2 or 6-3 at the worst, not 4-5.

Damned lies and statistics. Fantasy numbers are just that. Fantasy.

 

[Wallace Breen]

I support him because I’ve coached before and I realize much of what goes wrong is on the players....coaches can only do so much. How are players not listening on the coaches? And you said turnovers and dropped passes are on the players so that means the losses they had this year were on the players....thanks for making my point.

When the staff routinely puts players into a position to lose, it is on the coaching. We have far too many players on this team playing out of position for it to be on the players. Far too many trends indicating coaching and recruiting are the issue. Franklin is not a great coach. He is a good coach but one who will almost certainly never coach a legit playoff contender in the Big Ten. He might be able to do it in the SEC or Big XII but not in a conference that has at least minimal standards regarding student athletes.

 

[Beachwineguy]

When the staff routinely puts players into a position to lose, it is on the coaching. We have far too many players on this team playing out of position for it to be on the players. Far too many trends indicating coaching and recruiting are the issue. Franklin is not a great coach. He is a good coach but one who will almost certainly never coach a legit playoff contender in the Big Ten. He might be able to do it in the SEC or Big XII but not in a conference that has at least minimal standards regarding student athletes.

How many times did the coaching staff tell the QB to throw a terrible pass? The first five games, we didn’t protect the ball, and the results reflected that. When you’re playing from two or three touchdowns behind, you’re going to have a hard time winning games.