Happy Valley Insider - Penn State now the "Last Team In" according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi
Don't look now, folks, but Penn State men's basketball's NCAA Tournament dreams are still alive.
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Basketball Penn State now the "Last Team In" according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi
- Thread starter Dylan Callaghan-Croley
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If we lose to Maryland we will be first four out. Maryland is the biggest game in a long, long time....maybe ever.
It’s right there with Talor’s senior night against Ohio St as the biggest regular season game in the past 30+ years since I’ve been following the program.
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We’re the 3rd team out…
North Carolina still out, Arizona State joins field in this week's NCAA Tournament Bracketology
Heading into the final weekend of the regular season, there's one major change in this week's Bracketology with Arizona State moving into the field.
www.usatoday.com
I'm more inclined to say the games won in the NCAA that got PSU to the sweet 16 were the biggest games ever, but in looking ahead a win in the MD game getting PSU into the NCAA would go a long way to help building up Coach Shrew's ability to keep improving the recruiting needed to make PSU a yearly NCAA participant......
CBS had us as first team out. Seems like the maryland game will determine whether we go or not. a good position to be in
Why does everyone have Michigan out?
Will be a big boost to recruiting and inject the program with momentum and life it has not seen in a few years.
By that logic, beating Providence in the 1st round in 2001 was our second biggest win ever. I am not sure I agree with that
Palm (CBS) had us as out yesterday, but moved us to his 2nd to the last team in today...interestingly enough, playing against Michigan in Dayton.
A big thing holding Michigan back is their sheer number of losses and overall record. Middling NET (53) and sitting at 17-13 today, they've got to really overcome that record, and the horrific loss at home to Central Michigan hurts.
Just looking at some of the basic data points...they are 3-10 in quad 1 games, while we are 4-6. They have that awful loss, while our resume is extremely "clean". But we're really close to each other at this point...we should be rooting against Michigan and Wisconsin very hard (as well as several others this weekend).
As a college student beating a rival at home in a game you attended would seem to be their biggest positive memory. But most college BB fans likely believe that NCAA tournament wins rate higher than regular season wins.
Getting to the Sweet 16 is a big milestone. People talk about for a week in the heart of the NCAA championship tournament. Seems like a much bigger deal than just skimming into the tournament.
Sure that luster of getting to the sweet 16 wears off after a few years. But it lasts longer than just sliding into the tournament as the last team followed by a quick exit.
My youngest son went to U of Dayton and their run to the Elite 8 a few years back is his and my biggest BB memory for UD. Even over the pre-covid season when the tournament was canceled and UD was headed for a #1 seed, a season with lots of "big wins".
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It won't because other teams will win tournament games--if we don't beating Maryland isn't enough. Some teams right now that aren't even on the bubble will get an auto bid pushing us down as well. Need 2 more wins.
You're still sticking with your "Absolutely no chance of them going (if we go 1-1 now) and getting in. None"? Or ready to admit that the chances are well north of "No chance" and "none"?
No, they're not north of that. That hasn't changed. When you're in the last 4 in line you need a win during tournament week or you have no chance to stay there.
So you’re really sticking to “the chances are zero”?
If so, that’s obviously wrong.
Would be great for Minny to carry the mo from Wed night's win to a win over Wisky. Or beat them in the first rd of the BTT. Since Wisky beat us twice, we need them to pile up the losses.
It's not obviously wrong. You just can't acknowledge you're wrong here. As per usual.
Happy Valley Insider - Penn State now the "Last Team In" according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi
Don't look now, folks, but Penn State men's basketball's NCAA Tournament dreams are still alive.
The projections don’t matter. If we lose, we’re out. If we win, we have a good chance.
Just to lay this out there...
Today, we're sitting right on the cut line...should we win on Sunday and lose next Thursday to Maryland/Illinois (or whoever the 7 is), we'd pick up 1 more Quad 1 win, and take another Quad 1 loss.
With the current state of the bubble, going 1-1 against Quad 1 teams would only be enhancing our resume further. So, we'd likely bump ourselves forward a few teams based on today's standing. But, we can expect another 3-4 teams to play their way ahead of us based on bid stealers and/or teams behind us enhancing their resumes. In addition, 1-2 teams would also likely slip and play their way back behind us.
So, it pretty much puts us right back where we are today. And that's a coin flip to get in. There is certainly nothing to "acknowledge as being wrong", as that puts us right in the thick of things. Stating that we have zero chance to dance is simply false under this scenario.
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The 1-1 scenario hinges on us beating Maryland. We have to beat Maryland or it starts to fall apart for us in terms of the logic, reality train. IF we beat Maryland then I hope we slip in even losing the Thursday BTT game based on a very good 5-1 finish to the regular season and the fact that the BTT is not weighted as heavily as the regular season.
Erial, can you remind us all who we want to lose this weekend to help us? We know Michigan and Wisky but what about other teams?
Sure, I'll start a new thread with it.
And FYI that how we finish doesn't matter...the committee used to weigh it, but they got rid of it as being a factor a while ago. Now, every game is treated equally (though most agree that the games on Saturday and Selection Sunday don't get quite as much weight).
Interesting they dropped the finish as a factor in selecting. Did not know that.
Mississippi State and Nevada along with Wisky are with us as the last 4 in according to Lunardi. Arizona State, Michigan, UNC Utah State are first four out.
It is a huge game, as was the Ohio State game, as were the first round NIT games in 2009 and 2018 where it took a last second shot to win those games and propel us to the two NIT championships. Hopefully we get to have more of these big games.
They were unless you are talking about the biggest games played at the Jordan Center.
And that is what it all comes down to. Win, but I still think that beating Maryland may not be enough. We still need 1 win in the tournament to really solidify our place. The one thing beating Maryland should do is get us an invite to the NIT if we get slighted by the NCAA. Even this would be a good step for a second year coach, and making a run to at least the quarter finals in the NIT would help in recruiting, not as well as the NCAA's but a step in the right direction.
And this is where things get dicey. A win by UNC over Duke tomorrow and a few wins in the ACC tournament could put UNC back into the mix. There are other teams right there also. The best thing we can do is finish up now 2-1. I really believe that takes the doubt away. Other teams like Wisconsin, Michigan, Rutgers have a better SOS than we have. Rutgers could be given a brutal blow by losing this weekend, and the first game in the BTT. That could actually move them out. Sitting with an 18-14 record would take them out of the tournament. A lot can happen the end of the season.
yes, and I was in college when it happened. we had much bigger wins than Providence even during that season. The UNC game in the 2nd round was obviously the biggest win of that era, but, beating MSU to get into the tournament and beating Kentucky early that season were both better wins on paper.
It's not a coin flip today--right now we're out because spots will be stolen. I'm not sure how many times you need that to be said for you to comprehend teams on the bubble right now will get bumped down.
Hopefully we go 2-1 and this is moot but I assure you if we go 1-1 and don't get in you'll still claim I was wrong whereas I admit when I'm wrong.
When you throw around words like “zero percent”, it should be impossible to be wrong. I’d never attach the words “no chance” to something that I would potentially need to admit that I’m wrong about.
It's never impossible to be wrong. You say things like this so you don't have to admit you're wrong.
One what? Time when I was wrong? I though Ohio State would beat Michigan and that Michigan would beat TCU. I likely would have got a Penn State game wrong but it was the most predictable season ever.
Heading into today, we're now Lunardi's last team in, DeCourcey's last team in, and Palm's 3rd to last team in.
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