OT: Scary as hell New Yorker story on potential Pacific Northwest quake.

[LionJim]

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

Twenty or so years ago scientists figured that there had been a 9.0 earthquake centered in around Portland, Oregon in 1700; there have been no major quakes since then. It has also been estimated that over the last ten thousand years a major quake hit at this fault every 250 or so years. It's gonna happen (1-in-3 chance for an 8 quake in the next 50 years, a 1-in-10 chance for a 9) and it's gonna be real, real bad, in part because so many buildings were built before it was recognized that the Pacific Northwest was in a serious seismic zone. "Everything west of I-5 is going to be wiped out."

 

[fairgambit]

This is one of the major reasons I've stayed with the Board under the new format. I haven't read the article yet, but based upon your summary Jim I will. I would never have had that opportunity had you not mentioned it. Thanks.

 

[michnittlion]

That article --- for lack of a better word, has gotten a tsunami of coverage over the last week. It's kind of stunning to me the number of people who don't realize the Pacific Northwest earthquake threat. Most geologists think a 9.0 simply isn't possible from San Francisco down south (California quakes there would probably max out at 8.1-8.2, which is bad enough), but it sure is possible further up the coast.

The Oregon and Washington Pacific coast is a very pretty area --- but it would be an apocalypse there if/when a 9.0 hits.

 

[masterbaker65]

Watched news last night. They mentioned it could be up to a 9.2. 100/120 ft tsunami would hit Japan and U.S. west coast. Could you imagine the death toll? Have to be 100,000's.

 

[Sviatoslav]

Watched news last night. They mentioned it could be up to a 9.2. 100/120 ft tsunami would hit Japan and U.S. west coast. Could you imagine the death toll? Have to be 100,000's.

That's what I was thinking as I read the article... Their casualty count seems very low, unfortunately. Central Pennsylvania looking pretty good right about now.

 

[LionJim]

Watched news last night. They mentioned it could be up to a 9.2. 100/120 ft tsunami would hit Japan and U.S. west coast. Could you imagine the death toll? Have to be 100,000's.

According to the story, FEMA's estimated death toll is 13,000. This, however, is based on the quake hitting in February; if it were in the summer, when there are thousands of tourists around, then it would be much worse.

Anyway, the linked story seriously scared the bejeezus out of me. It's well worth a click.

 

[michnittlion]

Watched news last night. They mentioned it could be up to a 9.2. 100/120 ft tsunami would hit Japan and U.S. west coast. Could you imagine the death toll? Have to be 100,000's.

One thing with an tsunami with a Cascadia earthquake ---- the tsunami isn't going to hit San Francisco or Los Angeles. Geography and the shape of the coastline will prevent that. The tsunami --- in terms of where it hits the United States --- would be on the Coast from the Canada border to around Cape Mendacino.

In Washington: Seattle and Puget Sound would be relatively safe, they wouldn't get walloped by a Pacific tsunami. Biggest tsunami threats would be Bellingham, Whidbey Island, Port Angeles, Aberdeen area and Long Beach. People live there, but none of those are major metro areas.

In Oregon: Portland's far enough inland too, they wouldn't get walloped. The whole Oregon Pacific coast is at risk --- the timing of the "Big One" matters a lot here. If it's summer, 100,000+ people are there on a given day. If it's mid-February, only about 20,000 permanent residents.

California's northern Pacific coast is also (relatively) sparsely populated.

The tsunami from a 9.0 Cascadia earthquake would be very very big (50+ feet), but the death toll may not be that high. The "projected inundation zone" has "only" 71K residents.

Japan would get a tsunami too, of course, but they'll have plenty of warning and time to evacuate --- on the order of 12 hours.

 

[Norm Petersin]

Watched news last night. They mentioned it could be up to a 9.2. 100/120 ft tsunami would hit Japan and U.S. west coast. Could you imagine the death toll? Have to be 100,000's.

 

[Norm Petersin]

I hope recruits are reading this. USC and UCLA might not be good choices. Scrap, bail out now before its too late.

 

[Nit Nolte]

And my daughter just moved to Seattle

 

[lionroar88]

I find it frightening that in the entire article they don't mention what would happen with Mt Rainier, Mt St Helens, Mt Hood, etc.. I know they are 100+ miles from the coast, but if the fault slams down with that much force to cause a 9.2+ earthquake, I would also fear it could cause any or all of them to erupt. If you haven't researched the potential of a Mt Rainier eruption - it would make Mt St Helens look like your 5th grade volcano science project.

 

[The Spin Meister]

Suppose you are on the cast and the Big One hits...how much time do you have to get to high ground before the tsunami hits? All you need to do is climb 150 feet to safety. Of course that could be difficult as the ground will be shaking with aftershocks, it may also be unstable from the initial quake, roads/pathways will be destroyed, could be avalanches/loose rock falling. And if the beach was crowded, a lot of injured and panicked people about.

 

[michnittlion]

Suppose you are on the cast and the Big One hits...how much time do you have to get to high ground before the tsunami hits? All you need to do is climb 150 feet to safety. Of course that could be difficult as the ground will be shaking with aftershocks, it may also be unstable from the initial quake, roads/pathways will be destroyed, could be avalanches/loose rock falling. And if the beach was crowded, a lot of injured and panicked people about.

Per most estimates, the tsunami likely will hit the Pacific Northwest coast around 30 minutes after the earthquake.
That's not much time, especially given you've just experienced a 9.0 earthquake!!! Your mind will probably be just a bit rattled, not to mention the infrastructure damage which will have just occurred.

 

[kgilbert78]

Note too that there are Midwest earthquake concerns.

See the New Madrid Fault, for example. Huge quake around the time of the War of 1812--but the area was still sparsely settled. That fault is due as well.

 

[tboyer]

Suppose you are on the cast and the Big One hits...how much time do you have to get to high ground before the tsunami hits? All you need to do is climb 150 feet to safety. Of course that could be difficult as the ground will be shaking with aftershocks, it may also be unstable from the initial quake, roads/pathways will be destroyed, could be avalanches/loose rock falling. And if the beach was crowded, a lot of injured and panicked people about.

You have as little as 15 minutes so getting up 150 feet would be impossible in most places. I've spent some time on the Wa and Or coast -- it's very rugged, there's no easy path up the cliffs. There would be absolutely no way to escape if you're at beach level. It's a tsunami as big as what hit Aceh in 2005 and killed 163,000 people in a sparsely populated resort area. The Oregon coast is a much bigger deal in the summer.

There was a surprisingly good movie about the Bali tsunami starring Naomi Watts called "The Impossible." Worked really hard to capture what it was like for those people when the water came in -- very very sad.

 

[The Spin Meister]

Note too that there are Midwest earthquake concerns.

See the New Madrid Fault, for example. Huge quake around the time of the War of 1812--but the area was still sparsely settled. That fault is due as well.

----
Amazing how many natural disasters are 'over due' ...... the Big One in the NW. the Big One for California, the Yellowstone Caldero, asteroid impact, magnetic pole switch, Icelandic volcanoes, massive Pacific volcano (think Krakatoa), Carrington event, Madrid Fault quake, the BoT doing something honorable.....gonna be an interesting next century!

PS I omitted a Cat 3 or larger hurricane hitting NY/Boston. (Sandy wasn't even a Cat 1 when it hit.)

 

[ClarkstonMark]

And my daughter just moved to Seattle

As already mentioned, Seattle is protected from the tsunami. No worries ... unless she is vacationing in a risk area.

 

[tomhawk80907]

Just came back from Newport visiting my brother. On the drive down to Eugene, to check out the Oregon campus, and yes, it is freaking beautiful although Eugene was disappointing, she says let's move to Newport. Well I got all the tsunami inudation and evacuation maps and was feeling pretty comfortable that we could buy in a safe zone much like my brother. Then the wifey finds this article Monday and we realized that while we might be able to get past the water the place is going to shake to the ground and be desolate for years after. Disappointing cause we both loved Newport a lot.

 

[Grant Green]

I'm a geotechnical engineer in Portland. There is some bad info and speculation in this thread.
The subduction zone quake is going to be bad when it happens, and it will eventually. The coast will get hammered especially by tsunami. Mountains aren't going to erupt and there won't be utter destruction from Portland to the coast.
We actually fear a 7.0 on the Portland hills fault more as far as the city goes.

 

[psuguy04]

I'm a geotechnical engineer in Portland. There is some bad info and speculation in this thread.
The subduction zone quake is going to be bad when it happens, and it will eventually. The coast will get hammered especially by tsunami. Mountains aren't going to erupt and there won't be utter destruction from Portland to the coast.
We actually fear a 7.0 on the Portland hills fault more as far as the city goes.

A sensationalized story in the media to get everyone hyped up and worried??????


Nawwwwwwwwwwwww!

 

[Grant Green]

A sensationalized story in the media to get everyone hyped up and worried??????


Nawwwwwwwwwwwww!

Don't get me wrong. The article is mostly pretty accurate. there is a lot to be scared about.

 

[psu00]

Don't get me wrong. The article is mostly pretty accurate. there is a lot to be scared about.

I'm disappointed. I was sure that someone would have posted the 'I survived the PA earthquake' picture from a few years ago with the knocked over lawn furniture by now.

 

[lionroar88]

Grant that is what the experts were saying about Mt St Helens. They knew 'something' was going to happen, but they never thought it would do what it did. I'm not saying you are wrong, but when it comes to Mother Nature, IMHO, anything is possible.

I was born in Tacoma back in 1971, we moved back East before I was 6 months old. In 1986 my family took a trip West and we stayed in Seattle for a few days, Mt Rainier was awesome (still have over 12 ft of snow in July!), but the trip to Mt St Helens I will NEVER forget.

We drove up this narrow, winding, road - just barely wide-enough for two cars to pass, turn after turn. Lush green forest for as far as the eye could see, when you weren't blocked by tall trees. Then you come around a left hand bend, and nothing. Pure utter void. Nothing but tannish gray ash for as far as the eye can see - and this time there is nothing blocking your view. No vegetation, no life, nothing. Just tannish gray ash and the sky. You drive a little further and you come to the burned remains of a vehicle were people lost their lives because they couldn't get away. Then you look off to your right and there she stands, her heart exposed for the world to gaze upon its might, THE mount, now 1,300 feet shorter. Mt St Helens.

These pictures capture some of her. Watch the animation in #4, the flooding in #9 and #13, the fallen trees in #14 and #16, (#19, #23, #27, #28) you would think were was taken on the lunar surface, then compare image #1 to image #25... the final image #32 paints pretty good picture of what the area STILL looks like today - 35 years later.

http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2015/05/the-eruption-of-mount-st-helens-35-years-ago/393557/

Man can, and has, changed the Earth on a micro-level, but we will never be able to rival the power and destructive capabilities of Nature.

 

[Grant Green]

Grant that is what the experts were saying about Mt St Helens. They knew 'something' was going to happen, but they never thought it would do what it did. I'm not saying you are wrong, but when it comes to Mother Nature, IMHO, anything is possible.

I was born in Tacoma back in 1971, we moved back East before I was 6 months old. In 1986 my family took a trip West and we stayed in Seattle for a few days, Mt Rainier was awesome (still have over 12 ft of snow in July!), but the trip to Mt St Helens I will NEVER forget.

We drove up this narrow, winding, road - just barely wide-enough for two cars to pass, turn after turn. Lush green forest for as far as the eye could see, when you weren't blocked by tall trees. Then you come around a left hand bend, and nothing. Pure utter void. Nothing but tannish gray ash for as far as the eye can see - and this time there is nothing blocking your view. No vegetation, no life, nothing. Just tannish gray ash and the sky. You drive a little further and you come to the burned remains of a vehicle were people lost their lives because they couldn't get away. Then you look off to your right and there she stands, her heart exposed for the world to gaze upon its might, THE mount, now 1,300 feet shorter. Mt St Helens.

These pictures capture some of her. Watch the animation in #4, the flooding in #9 and #13, the fallen trees in #14 and #16, (#19, #23, #27, #28) you would think were was taken on the lunar surface, then compare image #1 to image #25... the final image #32 paints pretty good picture of what the area STILL looks like today - 35 years later.

http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2015/05/the-eruption-of-mount-st-helens-35-years-ago/393557/

Man can, and has, changed the Earth on a micro-level, but we will never be able to rival the power and destructive capabilities of Nature.

What part of my post are you contesting? The volcanic eruption part? NW volcanoes may erupt in the future, but a subduction zone event will not trigger it. Earthquakes can result from volcanic activity, but not the other way around.

 

[lionroar88]

Grant, not contesting at all. I don't know how these things work, or are related. Just saying, I've learned to expect anything from Nature.

 

[LafayetteBear]

I'm a geotechnical engineer in Portland.

LOL. I'm guessing Grant has a good idea what he's talking about here.

Lionroar: Those are some awesome photos. The video of the eruption (particularly "the largest landslide in recorded history") is phenomenal. As is the melted dash of that truck located 14 kilometers from the mountain. Quite a pyroclastic (sp?) blast, to be sure.

 

[Nittany Ziggy]

My name's "Chuck" and I don't give a flying fu@k. What a waste of brain matter.

 

[Ian]

The biggest and scariest of all the disasters is if the active volcano on the Canary Islands erupts and the west face collapses into the ocean. The resulting Tsunami would destroy the entire east coast!

 

[masterbaker65]

You are correct! If the west slope of the Canary's slide into the ocean FL would be wiped from the maps. Death toll
Could reach a million.

 

[fairgambit]

The biggest and scariest of all the disasters is if the active volcano on the Canary Islands erupts and the west face collapses into the ocean. The resulting Tsunami would destroy the entire east coast!

There are responsible differences of opinion on this.
http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2013/12/13/canary-islands-tsunami/

 

[T J]

The biggest and scariest of all the disasters is if the active volcano on the Canary Islands erupts and the west face collapses into the ocean. The resulting Tsunami would destroy the entire east coast!

Updated research indicates that the Canary Island scenario may be different than a mega-tsunami.

It appears that a series of smaller events have happened in the past and that could be what will happens in the future. If so, a mega-tsunami would likely not be the result.

Link has an interesting video from a Malaysian collapse that happened in stages, similar to what they now expect is more likely from the Canary Islands.

Enjoy...

13 DECEMBER 2013

Killing off the Canary Islands landslide megatsunami scare

http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2013/12/13/canary-islands-tsunami/

 

[wbcincy]

I'm disappointed. I was sure that someone would have posted the 'I survived the PA earthquake' picture from a few years ago with the knocked over lawn furniture by now.

It probably just wasn't brought up earlier because of the PTSD it caused...

 

[YogiMan71]

Living at 6300 ft in Colorado seems good right now.

 

[kgilbert78]

Living at 6300 ft in Colorado seems good right now.

Until the Yellowstone supervolcano goes off.....

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Updated research indicates that the Canary Island scenario may be different than a mega-tsunami.

It appears that a series of smaller events have happened in the past and that could be what will happens in the future. If so, a mega-tsunami would likely not be the result.

Link has an interesting video from a Malaysian collapse that happened in stages, similar to what they now expect is more likely from the Canary Islands.

Enjoy...

13 DECEMBER 2013

Killing off the Canary Islands landslide megatsunami scare

http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2013/12/13/canary-islands-tsunami/

That Malaysian Tin Mine collapse is one of the coolest things ever - too bad the video's resolution is so bad. Pretty silly to have a mine so close to the ocean, though.

Another disaster that could occur is when the sea breaks through into the Great Rift Valley in Africa.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

LOL. I'm guessing Grant has a good idea what he's talking about here.

Lionroar: Those are some awesome photos. The video of the eruption (particularly "the largest landslide in recorded history") is phenomenal. As is the melted dash of that truck located 14 kilometers from the mountain. Quite a pyroclastic (sp?) blast, to be sure.

Grant should have kept his vocation a secret and let a bunch of people say he's full of crap, and then lowered the boom.

We are in an age where many believe all opinions are equally valid despite a vast difference in real-world experience, knowledge, etc. Not saying that about anyone in this thread, but it happens all the time. The Test Board is rife with people who's opinions on a wide range of subjects are shaped primarily, if not wholly, by Mother Jones or Fox News.

Geotechnical engineer in Portland - about as on-point as you can get for this discussion.

 

[PSUriseANDfire]

I know two PSU meteorologists who have good contacts, both who now live out that way. The stuff interests me but I know nothing when it comes down to it. They are really good and yeah, this isn't "maybe" scary like Yellowstone. This is scary as hell. Nobody would come out and say "imminent" but...

 

[The Spin Meister]

Grant should have kept his vocation a secret and let a bunch of people say he's full of crap, and then lowered the boom.

We are in an age where many believe all opinions are equally valid despite a vast difference in real-world experience, knowledge, etc. Not saying that about anyone in this thread, but it happens all the time. The Test Board is rife with people who's opinions on a wide range of subjects are shaped primarily, if not wholly, by Mother Jones or Fox News.

Geotechnical engineer in Portland - about as on-point as you can get for this discussion.

-----
Yeah, cause CNN or MSNBC never does anything sensational. What a stupid comment.

As for this Malaysion landslide, it is hardly a comparable event to a possible Canary Island event. The Malaysion one appears to have been caused by mining too close to the ocean creating stresses that led to failure. A landslide in the Canaries would be totally different and could possibly be similar to the Mt St Helens collapse. Not saying it would be that way, just saying one landslide is different than others.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

-----
Yeah, cause CNN or MSNBC never does anything sensational. What a stupid comment.

As for this Malaysion landslide, it is hardly a comparable event to a possible Canary Island event. The Malaysion one appears to have been caused by mining too close to the ocean creating stresses that led to failure. A landslide in the Canaries would be totally different and could possibly be similar to the Mt St Helens collapse. Not saying it would be that way, just saying one landslide is different than others.

Every news service is biased - I just picked one from the left and one from the right. Calm down. Journalistic standards have plummeted across the board. And, by the way, when did I address sensationalism in my post? I addressed people valuing opinions as equivalent to fact-based research and years of experience.

As for the Malaysia thing, I just think it's pretty cool. A major landslide on La Palma would be anything but cool. If half that island went, at least our east coast residents would have a few hours notice to run for the hills.