OT: Oil change

SLUPSU

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note you used the word PLEDGE. i again go back to reality and science and mathematics, not politics. Somebody has to show me where all the lithium (and other rare earth minerals) are coming from to make all these batteries for electric cars. Then the fact you go on a car lot now and they have no cars. Doing some quick readings and inventories are at 20-25% of pre-covid levels. So automakers are having issues even making cars right now due to the chip shortage. so again, another huge issue that is not being taken into account with these PLEDGES.

Second as I noted, the infrastructure for charging of all these cars is nowhere near large enough at this point. less than 1% of cars in the USA are currently electric. the cost and logistics of the amount of charging stations that need to be installed to support an all electric fleet will run in the trillions of dollars and again you can see now with the supply chain issues out there how hard it is to get things done. and just how some of this will even be accomplished seems nearly impossible to figure out. how do you put thousands of charging stations in large apartment and condo and townhouse parking lots, how do you charge cars in a city environments. the current gas station infrastructure will need to be converted over to fast charging stations with many more chargers than current gas pumps as to fill your tank takes maybe 3-5 minutes instead of a 20 minute charge so need alot more charging stations.

To your point about infrastructure, about 90% of all charging is currently done at night when there's plenty of capacity, with normal growth in power production, the infrastructure won't be a problem for a long time as EV adoption accelerates. I'd also expect some significant technological advances in battery technology leading to increased range and much shorter charging times, the technology is going to look much different in the next five to ten years.
 

Cletus11

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1) People will charge EVs at their homes. Why would they pay at a charging station unless they are traveling long distance?

2) Manufacturers might not meet their EV targets for the reasons you mentioned but it's not like they have a new ICE car to slot in it's place. They're committed.
for your point #1 ,people are still going to need to charge their car when the drive and not alwasy be able to charge at night. Espeically the tens of millions of car owners that don't own a home and get to plug in. And when you charge at home, it is not free (unless you have solar panels).

And see the below, this literally is front page Reuters today (pure coincidence). If you are not in the industry than you don't understand how bad the supply chain is. Electrical parts right now are like baby formula or toilet paper in April 2020. Talking lead times that in the past were 2-4 weeks being 6-12 months. Some parts are now 18+ month lead time. Parts that are $800 normally being sold for 5-10X that as they are so scarce. We are talking about these supply chain problems not being solved until the earliest late 2023 and probably into 2024.

How a battery shortage is hampering the U.S. switch to wind, solar power
 
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fastlax16

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Agree but those people will take mass transit or won't own EVs for a while.

Our vacation condo has charging stations. Chargepoint installed them for free. They'll make their money when people pay to charge.

That was my point. You have a large chunk of the country that EVs logistically won't work for many people for a very long time, if ever. I live in an expensive part of Chicago where people street park new, expensive vehicles (plenty of range rovers and benzes). They’re all just going to be limited to used cars at the end of the decade? I don’t buy it. I’m also not anti-ev.
 

bdgan

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for your point #1 ,people are still going to need to charge their car when the drive and not alwasy be able to charge at night. Espeically the tens of millions of car owners that don't own a home and get to plug in. And when you charge at home, it is not free (unless you have solar panels).

And see the below, this literally is front page Reuters today (pure coincidence). If you are not in the industry than you don't understand how bad the supply chain is. Electrical parts right now are like baby formula or toilet paper in April 2020. Talking lead times that in the past were 2-4 weeks being 6-12 months. Some parts are now 18+ month lead time. Parts that are $800 normally being sold for 5-10X that as they are so scarce. We are talking about these supply chain problems not being solved until the earliest late 2023 and probably into 2024.

How a battery shortage is hampering the U.S. switch to wind, solar power
People will charge their EVs at home unless they're taking long trips. Of course it isn't free but it's less expensive and more convenient than using a pay charging station and waiting 20 minutes.

I don't understand the supply chain problems. How long dies it take to catch up from Covid closures that mostly ended a year ago? That said, I agree that supply shortages could delay automakers goal of being 100% electric by 2030 by a couple of years. But that doesn't mean they're going to scrap their new EVs and start designing new ICEs. (BTW, you can't get those either).
 

bdgan

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That was my point. You have a large chunk of the country that EVs logistically won't work for many people for a very long time, if ever. I live in an expensive part of Chicago where people street park new, expensive vehicles (plenty of range rovers and benzes). They’re all just going to be limited to used cars at the end of the decade? I don’t buy it. I’m also not anti-ev.
Places like apartment buildings will eventually have charging stations. Many already do and the federal government is installing 500,000 as part of the infrastructure bill.

Like it or not the number of EVs is growing and that's not going to stop. I agree that ICEs aren't going away completely but I can definitely see 50% of new car sales being EVs a decade from now. That would mean 25%-30% of cars on the road could be EVs by then.
 

SLUPSU

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for your point #1 ,people are still going to need to charge their car when the drive and not alwasy be able to charge at night. Espeically the tens of millions of car owners that don't own a home and get to plug in. And when you charge at home, it is not free (unless you have solar panels).

And see the below, this literally is front page Reuters today (pure coincidence). If you are not in the industry than you don't understand how bad the supply chain is. Electrical parts right now are like baby formula or toilet paper in April 2020. Talking lead times that in the past were 2-4 weeks being 6-12 months. Some parts are now 18+ month lead time. Parts that are $800 normally being sold for 5-10X that as they are so scarce. We are talking about these supply chain problems not being solved until the earliest late 2023 and probably into 2024.

How a battery shortage is hampering the U.S. switch to wind, solar power

Your posts suggest that you might need to adjust your thinking of the EV adoption timeline. I've seen projections that predict the entire US fleet hitting 50% EV by 2050. I've also seen projections that state conversion to a 100% EV fleet we need to increase power capacity by 30% (over normal growth needs), under those assumptions/predictions we would have to increase power capacity by 15% in 28 YEARS!!! It would be a sad commentary if these numbers couldn't be easily achieved (if we want to).
 

Cletus11

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People will charge their EVs at home unless they're taking long trips. Of course it isn't free but it's less expensive and more convenient than using a pay charging station and waiting 20 minutes.

I don't understand the supply chain problems. How long dies it take to catch up from Covid closures that mostly ended a year ago? That said, I agree that supply shortages could delay automakers goal of being 100% electric by 2030 by a couple of years. But that doesn't mean they're going to scrap their new EVs and start designing new ICEs. (BTW, you can't get those either).
there are a litany of reasons for supply chain issues, but just because you don't know of them or understand them doesn't make them not real. do you drive past car lots, they are empty. if they could put more cars on lots certainly they would. Go look up the fire at the taiwan semiconductor plant that shut it down for like 18 months that supplies like 40% of all the world's computer chips. and during covid many production plants shut down or greatly curtalied production and they don't have catchup capacity to make up for the 12 month slowdown that they took. or some places just cannot find workers because it is better for people to sit at home and collect long term unemployment than work. and many others.

listen, I think the conversion to EV and in general away from fossil fuels to more 'green' energy is the right thing to do. but the timing being given right now is not realistic.
 

bdgan

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there are a litany of reasons for supply chain issues, but just because you don't know of them or understand them doesn't make them not real. do you drive past car lots, they are empty. if they could put more cars on lots certainly they would. Go look up the fire at the taiwan semiconductor plant that shut it down for like 18 months that supplies like 40% of all the world's computer chips. and during covid many production plants shut down or greatly curtalied production and they don't have catchup capacity to make up for the 12 month slowdown that they took. or some places just cannot find workers because it is better for people to sit at home and collect long term unemployment than work. and many others.

listen, I think the conversion to EV and in general away from fossil fuels to more 'green' energy is the right thing to do. but the timing being given right now is not realistic.
You don't understand what I'm trying to say. I'm NOT promoting EVs.

I'm simply saying two things:
  1. People will charge at home if at all possible. It's less expensive and it doesn't interrupt their schedule.
  2. EVs are coming like it or not. We can debate the timing but Volvo, GM, etc aren't going to reverse course and start developing ICEs instead.
Personally I don't like the government subsidizing EVs. I think people will move that way on their own as it begins to make sense for their wallet. I also believe EVs move emissions, not eliminate them. That might be good for big cities with auto congestion related smog but things like battery production emit quite a bit. I think the net impact to the climate is positive but not by nearly as much as greenies would have you believe.
 

lazydave841

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Personally I don't like the government subsidizing EVs. I think people will move that way on their own as it begins to make sense for their wallet.

EVs would not exist as we know them without subsidies.

They still aren't affordable, even with the price of fuel and inflates price of non-EVs. But, they are trying.
 
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fastlax16

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Places like apartment buildings will eventually have charging stations. Many already do and the federal government is installing 500,000 as part of the infrastructure bill.

Like it or not the number of EVs is growing and that's not going to stop. I agree that ICEs aren't going away completely but I can definitely see 50% of new car sales being EVs a decade from now. That would mean 25%-30% of cars on the road could be EVs by then.

I like EVs. I'd buy a Tesla if I had a 3 car garage and a weekend car.

"Places like apartment buildings" is very broad. High rise apartments sure. Not every apartment is a high rise with a garage. My buddy's apartment is a two flat in Chicago some guy rents out.


Many of the "homes" on this street are actually apartments. None of them are getting chargers unless Chicago is putting them on public streets. The ugly yellow one just sold for a million bucks. https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/3431-N-Paulina-St-60657/home/13384934
 

bdgan

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I like EVs. I'd buy a Tesla if I had a 3 car garage and a weekend car.

"Places like apartment buildings" is very broad. High rise apartments sure. Not every apartment is a high rise with a garage. My buddy's apartment is a two flat in Chicago some guy rents out.


Many of the "homes" on this street are actually apartments. None of them are getting chargers unless Chicago is putting them on public streets. The ugly yellow one just sold for a million bucks. https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/3431-N-Paulina-St-60657/home/13384934
I own a condo unit in a 100 unit building. We have 2 charging stations. The Wawa a few miles away has 6 charging stations. The closest shopping mall has a large bank of charging stations.

I agree that some places aren't as well suited for EVs.

If I was still commuting to work I would consider an EV for one of my two cars. I don't think I'm alone.
 

The Spin Meister

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An altered state
Places like apartment buildings will eventually have charging stations. Many already do and the federal government is installing 500,000 as part of the infrastructure bill.

Like it or not the number of EVs is growing and that's not going to stop. I agree that ICEs aren't going away completely but I can definitely see 50% of new car sales being EVs a decade from now. That would mean 25%-30% of cars on the road could be EVs by then.

there are a litany of reasons for supply chain issues, but just because you don't know of them or understand them doesn't make them not real. do you drive past car lots, they are empty. if they could put more cars on lots certainly they would. Go look up the fire at the taiwan semiconductor plant that shut it down for like 18 months that supplies like 40% of all the world's computer chips. and during covid many production plants shut down or greatly curtalied production and they don't have catchup capacity to make up for the 12 month slowdown that they took. or some places just cannot find workers because it is better for people to sit at home and collect long term unemployment than work. and many others.

listen, I think the conversion to EV and in general away from fossil fuels to more 'green' energy is the right thing to do. but the timing being given right now is not realistic.

I like EVs. I'd buy a Tesla if I had a 3 car garage and a weekend car.

"Places like apartment buildings" is very broad. High rise apartments sure. Not every apartment is a high rise with a garage. My buddy's apartment is a two flat in Chicago some guy rents out.


Many of the "homes" on this street are actually apartments. None of them are getting chargers unless Chicago is putting them on public streets. The ugly yellow one just sold for a million bucks. https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/3431-N-Paulina-St-60657/home/13384934
You guys are all missing a key factor in the conversion to EVs.......ride sharing. And/or firms that own cars that are rented by need.

Coming soon a lot of people won’t own cars. Or a family will just own one car and use it for special purposes. Daily use will be covered by ride sharing or on demand vehicles. Especially once driverless vehicles are accepted.

Most vehicle spend 90% of their time parked. That’s a lot of equity doing nothing. Plus lots of other costs...insurance, maintenance, parking fees and more. Soon there will be companies that own thousands of vehicles that can be summed at a moment’s notice or even scheduled ahead of time. Those cars will generate income roughly 70-80% of the time for the companies while saving money for former auto owners.

I think this is the future and it will be a very good thing. Less congestion, less parking space using valuable land, less resources needed for building the vehicles, less drunk/wreck less/careless/distracted driving. Less wrecks, less injuries, a huge reduction in societal medical costs.

I could see EVs filling this space quite nicely. Quietly driving around around 200 miles a day. And if they run low some could do a rapid charge or even a quick battery swap at the home base of the company that owns them.
 

fastlax16

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You guys are all missing a key factor in the conversion to EVs.......ride sharing. And/or firms that own cars that are rented by need.

Coming soon a lot of people won’t own cars. Or a family will just own one car and use it for special purposes. Daily use will be covered by ride sharing or on demand vehicles. Especially once driverless vehicles are accepted.

Most vehicle spend 90% of their time parked. That’s a lot of equity doing nothing. Plus lots of other costs...insurance, maintenance, parking fees and more. Soon there will be companies that own thousands of vehicles that can be summed at a moment’s notice or even scheduled ahead of time. Those cars will generate income roughly 70-80% of the time for the companies while saving money for former auto owners.

I think this is the future and it will be a very good thing. Less congestion, less parking space using valuable land, less resources needed for building the vehicles, less drunk/wreck less/careless/distracted driving. Less wrecks, less injuries, a huge reduction in societal medical costs.

I could see EVs filling this space quite nicely. Quietly driving around around 200 miles a day. And if they run low some could do a rapid charge or even a quick battery swap at the home base of the company that owns them.

the zip car model is a pain in the ass and I live in a city with easy access to them plus basically unlimited Ubers taxis and public transit. I think fewer people are willing to give up the freedom of owning a car than you think and many in positions to do so already have.

by summoned I assume you’re talking self driving tech which is even further from mass adoption, especially in scenarios where they are driving autonomously without anyone in the car as I’m envisioning if you’re summoning it. Not to mention the parking needed to conveniently have enough cars to guarantee immediate access to anyone who wants one at any time would be significant.

Vehicles may spend 90% of their time parked, but that 90% isn’t randomly distributed. meeting 100% of demand during rush hour in any major metro area would be unfeasible.

If you have a kid the ride sharing option becomes even more untenable unless you want to lug car seats everywhere you go unless these companies are going to provide those for kids up to ten or whatever age is mandated now.
 
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bdgan

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You guys are all missing a key factor in the conversion to EVs.......ride sharing. And/or firms that own cars that are rented by need.

Coming soon a lot of people won’t own cars. Or a family will just own one car and use it for special purposes. Daily use will be covered by ride sharing or on demand vehicles. Especially once driverless vehicles are accepted.

Most vehicle spend 90% of their time parked. That’s a lot of equity doing nothing. Plus lots of other costs...insurance, maintenance, parking fees and more. Soon there will be companies that own thousands of vehicles that can be summed at a moment’s notice or even scheduled ahead of time. Those cars will generate income roughly 70-80% of the time for the companies while saving money for former auto owners.

I think this is the future and it will be a very good thing. Less congestion, less parking space using valuable land, less resources needed for building the vehicles, less drunk/wreck less/careless/distracted driving. Less wrecks, less injuries, a huge reduction in societal medical costs.

I could see EVs filling this space quite nicely. Quietly driving around around 200 miles a day. And if they run low some could do a rapid charge or even a quick battery swap at the home base of the company that owns them.
Ride sharing makes some sense in big cities but not in the suburbs.
 

Cletus11

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When I was in Europe in April, there is a 'car' company over there that when you buy the car, you automatically are enrolled in their service which essentially allows you to rent out your car to anyone who signs up for their service. So like the Zip car model but you own the car, so a hybrid version of what was talked about above. So when you are at work and you car is just sitting in the parking lot for 8 hours, somebody (like an airbnb for cars) can come and use your car and you get paid some rental money. You can rent your car out for the weekend if you are not using it. So interesting concept for a second car that might not get used much.

I do think that if autonomous driving ever does become real, that will be a game changer as the biggest cost to Uber/Lyft is the driver, not the car. So if you can have a car with no driver driving 20 hours per day (let's say 4 hours for charging) then the cost of those trips can be much lower and I could see people starting to use a service like that as their 'second vehicle.
 
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The Spin Meister

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the zip car model is a pain in the ass and I live in a city with easy access to them plus basically unlimited Ubers taxis and public transit. I think fewer people are willing to give up the freedom of owning a car than you think and many in positions to do so already have.

by summoned I assume you’re talking self driving tech which is even further from mass adoption, especially in scenarios where they are driving autonomously without anyone in the car as I’m envisioning if you’re summoning it. Not to mention the parking needed to conveniently have enough cars to guarantee immediate access to anyone who wants one at any time would be significant.

Vehicles may spend 90% of their time parked, but that 90% isn’t randomly distributed. meeting 100% of demand during rush hour in any major metro area would be unfeasible.

If you have a kid the ride sharing option becomes even more untenable unless you want to lug car seats everywhere you go unless these companies are going to provide those for kids up to ten or whatever age is mandated now.
It’s early in the game and services will improve. Think it will be five to ten years before a significant number use these services, which is just about the same for any big number of EVs. And people will adjust and be more accepting. Especially young people that grow up with these options.

As for autonomous vehicles I would bet they are already safer. We have 40,000 per year killed and hundreds of thousands seriously injured every year. If we could flip a switch and go all autonomous bet the numbers would drop significantly. Problem is a dozen or so fatalities with autonomous gets ten times the attention of ten thousand killed by drivers.

As for kids......don’t know the stats but guessing 75-80% of vehicles don’t have kids in them. Plus, services will run the numbers and outfit the appropriate number of vehicles with special seats. So you request a car so outfitted and you get what you need.
 
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fastlax16

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When I was in Europe in April, there is a 'car' company over there that when you buy the car, you automatically are enrolled in their service which essentially allows you to rent out your car to anyone who signs up for their service. So like the Zip car model buy you own the car, so a hybrid version of what was talked about above. So when you are at work and you car is just sitting in the parking lot for 8 hours, somebody (like an airbnb for cars) can come and use your car and you get paid some rental money. You can rent your car out for the weekend if you are not using it. So interesting concept for a second car that might not get used much.

Already exists here its called Turo. You'd have to really not care about the vehicle to sign up as a "host". I've heard nightmare stories about accidents and insurance issues.
 

Cletus11

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Already exists here its called Turo. You'd have to really not care about the vehicle to sign up as a "host". I've heard nightmare stories about accidents and insurance issues.
it obviously has some risk, but in the Europe model it is not like anybody can just drive the car. Just like a rental car company the people signing up to be part of the service have to provide all the proper documentation and then I think the car company overlays another layer of insurance over that. So in that sense, I think that can be overcome. If I understood correctly, it is also like the Model T philosophy in car selection, you have two choices to make either black or blue in car color so literally the exact same car in two colors. So that way also, the car's are all the same and outfitted with some special things to facilitate the rental model (ie...keyless entry with an app for instance, tracking of the car for mileage purposes, etc..)
 

fastlax16

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it obviously has some risk, but in the Europe model it is not like anybody can just drive the car. Just like a rental car company the people signing up to be part of the service have to provide all the proper documentation and then I think the car company overlays another layer of insurance over that. So in that sense, I think that can be overcome. If I understood correctly, it is also like the Model T philosophy in car selection, you have two choices to make either black or blue in car color so literally the exact same car in two colors. So that way also, the car's are all the same and outfitted with some special things to facilitate the rental model (ie...keyless entry with an app for instance, tracking of the car for mileage purposes, etc..)

Turo has all of those protections as well. You have to be signed up to rent, they keep your profile, bad ratings get you kicked off etc. Still hear nightmares about them lowballing for damage, etc. Not saying it can't work, but it doesn't solve the fewer cars problems. In fact seems to be the opposite. Similar to people who buy rental properties strictly to put them on AirBnB, must success stories on Turo are people buying an additional vehicle strictly with the purpose of renting it out as a side hustle.

The Model T philosphy doesn't make sense if these are privately owned cars. There's way too much variation in privately owned cars, so if it is only available to people with 2019-2022 Toyota Camry SEs with the convenience package then it is not a very useful program.
 

Obliviax

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I found this to be interesting...

FU5ee49X0AIjtEN
 

Cletus11

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Turo has all of those protections as well. You have to be signed up to rent, they keep your profile, bad ratings get you kicked off etc. Still hear nightmares about them lowballing for damage, etc. Not saying it can't work, but it doesn't solve the fewer cars problems. In fact seems to be the opposite. Similar to people who buy rental properties strictly to put them on AirBnB, must success stories on Turo are people buying an additional vehicle strictly with the purpose of renting it out as a side hustle.

The Model T philosphy doesn't make sense if these are privately owned cars. There's way too much variation in privately owned cars, so if it is only available to people with 2019-2022 Toyota Camry SEs with the convenience package then it is not a very useful program.
you must have misunderstood You buy the car from the company and as part of the car purchase is automatically part of this service as the car they sell to you has all the features already in it that can make it an easy rental. the car you can buy is only blue or black. you cannot be part of the program with a car that you don't purchase from them.
 

fastlax16

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you must have misunderstood You buy the car from the company and as part of the car purchase is automatically part of this service as the car they sell to you has all the features already in it that can make it an easy rental. the car you can buy is only blue or black. you cannot be part of the program with a car that you don't purchase from them.

No I understand perfectly. The part I bolded makes this program incredibly niche.
 

Cletus11

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No I understand perfectly. The part I bolded makes this program incredibly niche.
Ok, maybe I said that incomplete. To be a renter, you must own/buy their car. I can sign up to rent the car without owning one. So essentially anybody can rent the car as long as they sign up through the car company as a renter and pass whatever background checks and documentation required.

so it is not a company that I can rent my existing vehicle through their service.
 

fastlax16

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Ok, maybe I said that incomplete. To be a renter, you must own/buy their car. I can sign up to rent the car without owning one. So essentially anybody can rent the car as long as they sign up through the car company as a renter and pass whatever background checks and documentation required.

so it is not a company that I can rent my existing vehicle through their service.

No I still get it and It's still incredibly niche. It's an incredibly restricted version of Turo. Like if Turo required you buy the car from them, and the only car they'd sell you is a Camry.
 

Cletus11

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since seems apropos to this conversation and this thread has been really civil with good conversation. As many here agreed, inflation is out of control. this talk about inflation leveling off was stupid people who don't buy their own gas or own food. Issue I see is just cannot see how this stops as basically it is just a spiral where price A goes up and then Price B has to go up as it depends on price A and then it all spirals back around to where price A has to go up again as their costs go up.

U.S. annual inflation posts largest gain in nearly 41 years as food, gasoline prices soar
 

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