ADVERTISEMENT

OT: Joaquin over-hype. Crying wolf - a dangerous precident.

dcf4psu

Well-Known Member
Nov 7, 2003
1,249
744
1
State College
The weather currently affecting the east coast has nothing to do with the hurricane in the Bahamas that is going out to sea and will miss the eastern seaboard by hundreds of miles. It's a good old fashioned nor'easter and would be occurring with our without a hurricane in the Bahamas.

Here's a look: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/recentvis.html

One weather model has for days predicted the hurricane would head out to sea. It's the same model that correctly predicted Sandy would hit the Jersey coast. Unfortunately it isn't the model used by the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service. This more accurate model is the European Model (ECMWF). The model the NOAA centers rely on is the less reliable US model - GFS.

Regardless - the media hype over the strong nor'easter affecting the east coast this weekend saying it is somehow to the hurricane is a dangerous "cry wolf" game that will eventually lead to a real disaster at some point.

I'll be at the game tomorrow nor'easter or no nor'easter.
 
  • Like
Reactions: EPC FAN
Weather services love dire predictions because they increase viewer numbers and web clicks.
 
  • Like
Reactions: EPC FAN
The European Model incorrectly predicted a major snow event last January that prompted NYC to essentially be shut down for the better part of a day (of course that major snow event turned into about 3 inches). What really needs to happen (and it seemed slightly better with Joaquin in my view) is that forecasters need to be more transparent in how they forecast these very difficult to predict storms. At least with Joaquin I heard more discussion about the fact that the models were coming up with diverging storm paths and there was some discussion that this storm might miss us entirely.

In the end, all of the models are just that ... models that have inherent flaws. None of the models are 100% accurate and the public needs to understand that.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bmw199
The European Model incorrectly predicted a major snow event last January that prompted NYC to essentially be shut down for the better part of a day (of course that major snow event turned into about 3 inches). What really needs to happen (and it seemed slightly better with Joaquin in my view) is that forecasters need to be more transparent in how they forecast these very difficult to predict storms. At least with Joaquin I heard more discussion about the fact that the models were coming up with diverging storm paths and there was some discussion that this storm might miss us entirely.

In the end, all of the models are just that ... models that have inherent flaws. None of the models are 100% accurate and the public needs to understand that.

I agree. They are all flawed. In this case, not enough for me to criticize.
victorias-secret-fashion-show-finale-2013.jpg
 
  • Like
Reactions: jj410
The weather currently affecting the east coast has nothing to do with the hurricane in the Bahamas that is going out to sea and will miss the eastern seaboard by hundreds of miles. It's a good old fashioned nor'easter and would be occurring with our without a hurricane in the Bahamas.

Here's a look: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/recentvis.html

One weather model has for days predicted the hurricane would head out to sea. It's the same model that correctly predicted Sandy would hit the Jersey coast. Unfortunately it isn't the model used by the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service. This more accurate model is the European Model (ECMWF). The model the NOAA centers rely on is the less reliable US model - GFS.

Regardless - the media hype over the strong nor'easter affecting the east coast this weekend saying it is somehow to the hurricane is a dangerous "cry wolf" game that will eventually lead to a real disaster at some point.

I'll be at the game tomorrow nor'easter or no nor'easter.

Your a little off on a few of your points.... the NHC does not solely use the GFS. When they make their cone for the projected path they use a blend of models usually GFS/ECMWF/GEM/TCVN (The ECMWF is the euro). It would be more than unwise to use 1 model solely for any forecast for a host of reasons. Also most respected weather outlets I have seen have said this is a 2 punch storm a noreaster followed by a possible hurricane or remanants. I don't have time to look at them all but all the large respected one's I have seen have forecasted as such. But correct some outlets do hype for click bait and followers no doubt.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bmw199
The weather channel (just like many of the news channels) now runs on ratings and not news.

I was saying all along that El Nino is too strong this year and there is no way a storm would make east coast land fall.
 
The European Model incorrectly predicted a major snow event last January that prompted NYC to essentially be shut down for the better part of a day (of course that major snow event turned into about 3 inches). What really needs to happen (and it seemed slightly better with Joaquin in my view) is that forecasters need to be more transparent in how they forecast these very difficult to predict storms. At least with Joaquin I heard more discussion about the fact that the models were coming up with diverging storm paths and there was some discussion that this storm might miss us entirely.

In the end, all of the models are just that ... models that have inherent flaws. None of the models are 100% accurate and the public needs to understand that.
"Models" still the same old story, garbage in, garbage out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dcf4psu
Not to worry, we can still look forward to the obligatory handful of predicted snow-tastrophes this winter that will fizzle to drizzle here in south-central PA. There is no drama like snow drama.
 
The weather currently affecting the east coast has nothing to do with the hurricane in the Bahamas that is going out to sea and will miss the eastern seaboard by hundreds of miles. It's a good old fashioned nor'easter and would be occurring with our without a hurricane in the Bahamas.

Here's a look: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/recentvis.html

One weather model has for days predicted the hurricane would head out to sea. It's the same model that correctly predicted Sandy would hit the Jersey coast. Unfortunately it isn't the model used by the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service. This more accurate model is the European Model (ECMWF). The model the NOAA centers rely on is the less reliable US model - GFS.

Regardless - the media hype over the strong nor'easter affecting the east coast this weekend saying it is somehow to the hurricane is a dangerous "cry wolf" game that will eventually lead to a real disaster at some point.

I'll be at the game tomorrow nor'easter or no nor'easter.
Highs and lows in relation to each other(both surface and aloft) , And Upper winds are a more accurate prog..Yes sir, it is currently pretty much a plain Northeaster.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dcf4psu
The weather currently affecting the east coast has nothing to do with the hurricane in the Bahamas that is going out to sea and will miss the eastern seaboard by hundreds of miles. It's a good old fashioned nor'easter and would be occurring with our without a hurricane in the Bahamas.

Here's a look: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/recentvis.html

One weather model has for days predicted the hurricane would head out to sea. It's the same model that correctly predicted Sandy would hit the Jersey coast. Unfortunately it isn't the model used by the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service. This more accurate model is the European Model (ECMWF). The model the NOAA centers rely on is the less reliable US model - GFS.

Regardless - the media hype over the strong nor'easter affecting the east coast this weekend saying it is somehow to the hurricane is a dangerous "cry wolf" game that will eventually lead to a real disaster at some point.

I'll be at the game tomorrow nor'easter or no nor'easter.
The weather channel (just like many of the news channels) now runs on ratings and not news.

I was saying all along that El Nino is too strong this year and there is no way a storm would make east coast land fall.
Actually, I think you should expect this sort of thing from the weather channels and even the "news" channels catering to political views.
But it's also become a part of the mainstream network TV news (NBC, CBS, ABC) in their rush for ratings:
Exaggerating imminent dangers - weather, airline incidents, sharks - while ignoring "boring" major long-term ones.
Not reporting international news unless it involves spectacular violence.
Publicizing criminals and unintentionally glamorizing them.
Treating promotions of their network's shows as serious news.
Treating celebrity misbehavior as serious news.
Rehashing viral cute animal videos.
Not just reporting but telling you what to think about the reports.
Treating every disaster first and foremost as a ghoulish "story" rather than as a tragedy - ever notice they almost can't contain their enthusiasm about the latest horror?
 
  • Like
Reactions: dcf4psu
Highs and lows in relation to each other(both surface and aloft) , And Upper winds are a more accurate prog..Yes sir, it is currently pretty much a plain Northeaster.
Don't know if I would call it a plain noreaster... OCMD is shut down no beach acess and fearing massive damage tomorrow. Have already seen boats/docks smashed with many roads closed to flooding. Yes this happens in some noreasters but this one is packing a lot of punch with as much damage and places already closed due to massive flooding.
 
Don't know if I would call it a plain noreaster... OCMD is shut down no beach acess and fearing massive damage tomorrow. Have already seen boats/docks smashed with many roads closed to flooding. Yes this happens in some noreasters but this one is packing a lot of punch with as much damage and places already closed due to massive flooding.


At the end of the day, Joaquin was stronger and started moving north earlier than expected. If it followed the track of two days ago, it would have been catastrophic for the Delmarva peninsula.
 
ADVERTISEMENT