OT: How low can we go?

Online Persona

Well-Known Member
Feb 2, 2022
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The stock market has taken an absolute beating and I've seen that a mild recession is pretty much already priced in. Yet, here we are, again going lower and lower.

Anyone care to wager a guess as to how low each of the major indices goes and when we get there?

DOW -16% currently
S&P -20.5% currently
NASDAQ -30.7% currently
US inflation 8.6%
Fed Funds Rate 1.75

Also, anyone else at least 6 figures of decreased portfolio value like me? It's brutal out there.
 
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bdgan

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May 29, 2008
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I'd say the S&P could go down another 15% if the FED hikes the duscount rate above 3%.

It all depends on if inflation starts to slow with the rate at 1.5% - 2.25% and unemployment remains below 4%.
 

Cletus11

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Aug 8, 2003
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31,000 today. I think ultimately this could bottom out in the 23-25K range by end of year. inflation is not stopping, might die down some from the crazy 8.6% but it will remain above 5-6% for remainder of year. gas prices are not going to come down much from $5 per gallon. Fed is going to have to continue to increase the rate. And the major issue is a supply problem that is not going to go away due to 2 years worth of Covid related problems. There are certain supply chain lines out there that won't be 'normal' to at least end of 2024 if things go OK as they currently have lead times of 12 months. So going to require a recession just to get demand down to the point where it matches the supply chain and then the supply chain has to normalize to build back up inventory to actually meet the and exceed demand for pricing to come back in line.
 

GregInPitt

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May 29, 2001
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Competent economists agree that to tame inflation interest rates have to increase 1/2 - 1.0 percent above the inflation rate. And inflation and it's impact on buying power, entering into a longer term stagflation, inflation and wage spiral, longer term damage to the energy providers, .... seems to be what is killing the stock market

If that is the case get ready for considerably more pain, because the government controls some of the above and Biden is doubling down on his failing policies. So it could take until some time after he leaves office to really turn around the economy and the markets.
 

Cletus11

Well-Known Member
Aug 8, 2003
11,772
8,152
1
Competent economists agree that to tame inflation interest rates have to increase 1/2 - 1.0 percent above the inflation rate. And inflation and it's impact on buying power, entering into a longer term stagflation, inflation and wage spiral, longer term damage to the energy providers, .... seems to be what is killing the stock market

If that is the case get ready for considerably more pain, because the government controls some of the above and Biden is doubling down on his failing policies. So it could take until some time after he leaves office to really turn around the economy and the markets.
issue right now is $5 gas. USA (and countries not in OPEC) basically cannot have a quality economy at the current price of oil above $100 a barrell. Just permeates through the entire economy with pricing too high. So until somehow oil comes back down, which the only way that happens is the war in Ukraine ends and/or the USA completely opens up and goes all out, the economy is not going to recover appreciably.

Question is not if we are going to have a recession (I think we are in one now with negative GDP this quarter, especially if you adjust for inflation) but how long with the recession last.
 
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Rip_E_2_Joe_PA

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Jun 9, 2002
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I am buying back in to my mix of stocks. I am able to bid jobs already with material prices at around 20% less that 3 months ago. At $120 barrel for Brent Crude...gas should be selling at around $2.80-90. we are down around .50 per gallon over 2 weeks ago now at $4.30-40 in our local market.

Oilsupply.com is one source I go to for nonpartisan ... nontheatrical.
...info. Among other trade journals on coal and natural gas. But, I admit, it is hard to speculate what the erroneous political BS fear factor will convince other investors to believe and do.
 
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Online Persona

Well-Known Member
Feb 2, 2022
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I am buying back in to my mix of stocks. I am able to bid jobs already with material prices at around 20% less that 3 months ago. At $120 barrel for Brent Crude...gas should be selling at around $2.80-90. we are down around .50 per gallon over 2 weeks ago now at $4.30-40 in our local market.

Oilsupply.com is one source I go to for nonpartisan ... nontheatrical.
...info. Among other trade journals on coal and natural gas. But, I admit, it is hard to speculate what the erroneous political BS fear factor will convince other investors to believe and do.
In spite of my decreased value of my portfolio, I have also started adding some beaten down stocks that I fundamentally like. I'm not going to time the exact bottom, but I'll be all around it unless I run out of powder if the collapse is only just starting.
 
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PSU20

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May 11, 2006
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Do what "Wonda Sykes" told the middle class yesterday, "stop complaining" we, meaning the wealthy like her, are paying for everything anyway.
 

GregInPitt

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
13,215
9,371
1
issue right now is $5 gas. USA (and countries not in OPEC) basically cannot have a quality economy at the current price of oil above $100 a barrell. Just permeates through the entire economy with pricing too high. So until somehow oil comes back down, which the only way that happens is the war in Ukraine ends and/or the USA completely opens up and goes all out, the economy is not going to recover appreciably.

Question is not if we are going to have a recession (I think we are in one now with negative GDP this quarter, especially if you adjust for inflation) but how long with the recession last.
Yep, but Biden's blaming of the Ukraine war as the primary cause of $100+/gal oil is a blatant lie, as much of the rise in oil prices happened long before Russia invaded. If his administration would work with the oil companies he could get lower oil prices in short order. Oil prices would drop before any new oil availability would even hit the markets if Biden would reverse his anti-oil policies. But with all the red tape, environmental studies added to every new project and/or permit review, it would take a complete reversal of his policies and that doesn't seem at all likely as he doubles down on his reckless policies at every opportunity.

If you watch Larry Kudlow's daily show he states it clearly that the nearest term help will be when the cavalry comes after next Fall's elections.....
 

tlbakernc

Well-Known Member
Sep 10, 2019
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Mooresville NC
I’m stuck in a company retirement system. I’m unable to target stocks or sectors I feel could rebound. It sucks! I withdraw all funds and went with low paying interest cash funds. Least I’m not losing.

Anyone familiar with self guided 401k policies. I think you need to be 58 1/2 - 59 1/2 to qualify. Think it allows you to make outside investments from what the retirement plan company offers.
 

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